Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update – A simple explanation of this week’s military and political developments in the Pacific

Australia and the US conduct joint anti-ballistic missile defence test

This week, Asia Pacific Defence Reporter reported that the US Navy and Australia completed a successful joint test with the US Missile Defence Agency (MDA). The MDA is the branch of the United States military responsible for ballistic missile defence.  An important area for interoperability as Australia and the US plan for a potential conflict with China or North Korea.

China has a large and capable missile force and the use of long-range ballistic missiles is a key part of Chinese strategy.  Missiles are cheap and easy to produce and can be used to swamp an American carrier task group’s air defences or to strike targets deep behind the frontlines. US bases on Guam or Hawaii or perhaps even on the American mainland. North Korea’s missile programme is not as advanced as China but still constitutes a significant threat.

During this exercise, an Australian E-7A Wedgetail airborne early warning and command (AWAC) and American Aegis (a very sophisticated air defence radar system) equipped warships worked together to identify, track and provide targeting information that allowed for a medium-range ballistic missile to be successfully intercepted off the coast of Hawaii. 

This story is worth noting because it highlights a couple of key themes. The first of which is what the military call ‘inter-operability,’ or the ability for militaries from different nations to work together with each other.  Tracking a small fast-moving target between two different nations warships and aircraft is a difficult but essential skill. It takes technological ‘know how’ to send digital data between very secure moving platforms (aircraft and ships) and it takes shared standard operating procedures that manage both parties human interface.  Interoperability is not easy, it takes time, training and money to achieve and this exercise demonstrates that the US and Australia have this capability. 

‘Installations and Logistics 2030’ – US Marine Corps prepares for Pacific conflicts 

‘Force Design 2030,’ is the US Marine Corps doctrine for restructuring to prepare for a potential war in the Pacific against adversaries like China or North Korea.  Earlier this year, the Corps released ‘Installations and Logistics 2030’ a new logistics plan sitting within this programme. It provides more clues about how US forces will look in 2030 and intend to operate when faced with sophisticated area denial tactics using long-range precision-guided missiles. 

Essentially, the Marines are learning from the war in Ukraine with its proliferation of cheap, accurate drones and missiles that allow deep strikes against logistics hubs.  The Marines response is to look at ways for dispersing their supply train because they realise that any large concentration of logistics assets is likely to be attacked.  

The US Marine Corps has a long history of innovation and ‘Installations and Logistics 2030’ is no exception. On the futuristic side, the plan discusses the use of drones both airborne and underwater to move supplies. Most likely at a very tactical level (i.e. carrying small amounts of supplies to frontline units perhaps replacing small trucks with a swarm of drones) but there are also experiments using existing aircraft that can be converted to fly large cargoes unmanned. 

The plan also includes upgrading Marine Corps logistics system using AI to manage inventories and to ensure that equipment and supplies are at the right place at the right time.  This part of the plan borrows from sophisticated civilian logistics thinking. 

Regardless of these innovations the Marine Corps is also planning to use tried and tested methods like caching stores forward, and already equipment is being pre-positioned in the Philippines. Further, smaller long range Medium Landing Ships are planned that will be able to transport tanks, vehicles, equipment, people and stores longer distances extending the distance between larger landing ships and supply ships that are more attractive targets. 

‘Installations and Logistics 2030’ may be a dull name, but it is an important document because it provides insight into future conflict in the Pacific.  Insight that allows a more informed interpretation of US diplomacy in the Pacific. This plan is evidence that the US is serious about deterring China, and is taking steps to prepare. Diplomatically, the implications are that the US will be looking to secure potential bases in the Pacific, during peace time, over which to disperse logistics infrastructure during conflict. For example, Australia’s north is vitally important because it provides a potential logistics base for any war in Taiwan or the South China Sea.  Japan is too close and can be swamped by air and missile attacks from China or North Korea. Nearby US possessions like Guam are too small. Australia on the other hand, provides a large area to disperse across limiting the effectiveness of long-range missiles and has sophisticated military and civilian infrastructure that can support the accommodation, training areas, repair facilities and military hospitals required to fight a war in Asia. Supply lines will run from Australia through Melanesia and Indonesia both areas of considerable interest to the US.  

Geo-political strategy is always driven by the worst-case scenario – armed conflict; either avoiding it or seeking to achieve advantages that increase a nation’s chance of success. By knowing how nations intend to fight we can inform our geo-political analysis and diplomacy. 

2024 US Marine Rotational Force (US MRF) arrives in Darwin

The US RMF is a force of about 2,000 US Marines and sailors stationed in Darwin, Australia for the next eight months. Rotation of US Marine units through Darwin started in 2012 and has increased in size and complexity over the years.  Currently, the deployment involves a Marine Air Ground Task Force, roughly a brigade strength unit. This year’s rotation is based on the 1st Marine Regiment that is normally headquartered in California. 

The stated aim of US RMF is to improve interoperability and relationships between Australia and the other Pacific nations. Several large exercises like Talisman Sabre are conducted while the US RMF is in Australia allowing many nations to work together with the Marines.

US RMF deploys annually for eight months providing enough time for its members to build strong relationships with their Australian colleagues and to become familiar with the South West Pacific.  Each year a new group of Marines rotates through, spreading this experience, knowledge and relationships through the Corps.  The exercise is like a football team’s pre-season training bringing the key players together to practice their skills and most importantly to get to know one and other before the season.  

Melanesian update 

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia. 

Violence in Bougainville

Last month, violence flared in Bougainville as groups of young people associated with a group called Me’ekamui clashed and burnt a radio station and transmitter down in Buin, southern Bougainville.  Last week a person was killed in the clashes. 

Me’ekamui is a political faction that grew out of the Bougainville Revolutionary Army when the war against Papua New Guinea finished in 1998.  Information is relatively hard to find but the violence appears to be clashes between groups of youths associated with Me’ekamui.  Radio New Zealand reported on 4 April, that violence has subsided. 

Bougainville is part of Papua New Guinea but most of the population wishes to establish an independent state. The process to achieve this goal has taken a long-time and is currently being debated politically in Papua New Guinea.  Additionally, Bougainville is mineral rich and the strategically located so it seems reasonable to assess that Papua New Guinea will be trying to retain its control of the island. This situation creates political tensions that feed off and escalate violence.  An especially problematic situation in Melanesia because the region has a very young population and low employment two factors that contribute to the potential for violence.  

Solomon Islands election

On 17 April, Solomon Islands will hold an election.  The election was delayed because Prime Minister, Manasseh Sogavare’s government wanted to avoid the expense and complexity of holding an election in the same year as the 2023 Pacific Island Games hosted by Solomon Islands. 

The election is important because Solomon Islands politics is currently defined by the nation’s security relationships. Sogavare’s government moving closer to China and signing a secret defence agreement between the two nations. Actions that have caused both the US and Australia considerable concern. 

Solomon Islands relationship with China is already an election issue and the election will provide an opportunity to gauge the nation’s support for a closer relationship.  Historically, Solomon Islands elections have been marred by violence and rioting. Often rioting targets, the nation’s Chinese community living in the capital, Honiara.  It will be interesting to see if there is rioting, and if Chinese are targeted what China’s response will be now that the nation has a security agreement with Solomon Islands.  

New Zealand deploys service personal to support Solomon Islands election 

New Zealand is playing its part mitigating the risk of violence during the election.  In response to a request from the Solomon Island’s Electoral Commission New Zealand is deploying the landing ship HMNZS Canterbury and a couple of NH 90 helicopters.

HMNZS Canterbury is a very capable warship. Although it is smaller than most landing ships, its size is an advantage in the Pacific Islands because it can navigate into harbours and areas that larger ships cannot. It has two landing craft, two large Rigid Hulled Inflatable Boats and can operate helicopters from its flight deck.  The ship can carry about 250 soldiers and has a crew of about 100 naval personal.

Essentially, it provides a safe mobile airfield, field hospital and probably has enough people onboard to put ashore a small security force if required. It can also move people and equipment around for the Solomon Island’s government for instance transport electoral workers or extra police to outlying areas; either very quickly by helicopter or if equipment is required using its landing craft. 

An example of New Zealand supporting a smaller Pacific nation. 

New Caledonia hosts cyber-crime conference 

On 18-22 March, New Caledonia hosted a regional conference to raise awareness about cyber-crime.  The conference is part of the ‘Cyber Safe Pasifika’ programme funded by the Australian government. A programme discussed in last week’s Pacific Brief. The New Caledonian activity was particularly focussed on police forces and is an example of how larger countries in the Pacific like Australia and the US are supporting better cyber-security in the region. 

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack