Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update: A simple explanation of this week’s military and political developments in the Pacific

NATO summit and potential Pacific trends

This week NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary at its annual summit in Washington.  The meeting includes leaders from four Pacific nations; Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand. The four partner nations are known as ‘Indo-Pacific Four’ or the IP 4. This group’s current form dates to 2016, when it emerged as a response to North Korean activity that concerned NATO members. 

In recent years, world events mean NATO’s link with the Pacific via IP4 has become increasingly important. NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept, specifically refers to the Indo-Pacific region as an area of interest and the IP4 has played a role supporting Ukraine.  This week’s speeches and statements confirm this trend. 

Early in the week, US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken stated at the summit that “Increasingly, partners in Europe see challenges halfway around the world in Asia as being relevant to them, just as partners in Asia see challenges halfway around the world in Europe as being relevant to them.” He highlighted the alliance’s appreciation of the relationships between defence and security issues in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans.  On 10 July, the allies described China as a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russian aggression in Ukraine, a statement that reinforces the alliance’s concerns about China’s emerging role in world affairs as a counterpoint to NATO or the US.  Later, speaking exclusively to Reuters, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida discussed the need for Japan and NATO to work more closely together as security threats presented by Russia, China and North Korea become more inter-connected.

This week’s meeting is important for Pacific nations because it highlights NATO’s interest in, and desire for more involvement in the region. Some key information about future planning was provided by Jake Sullivan, White House Security Advisor who told media that four key NATO projects are focussing on are:

• Ukraine.
• Cyber-security.
• Countering dis-information.
• Artificial Intelligence (AI).

The projects most likely to impact in the Pacific area are the last three, the cyber realm facilitates much of the inter-connectedness between different regions discussed above.  Cyberspace is the facilitator of attempts to influence elections and for attacking digital infra-structure. It provides the mechanisms for mass dis-information campaigns and for direct cyber-attack Threats that are amplified by and become less predictable as AI evolves. 

Although NATO is unlikely to commit large forces permanently to the Pacific, this column has noted a trend towards greater NATO interest in the Pacific. This year the alliance is exercising in the Pacific, member states are contributing to enforcing UN sanctions on North Korea and to freedom of navigation patrols in areas like the South China Sea and Straits of Taiwan.  It is likely that IP4 countries will start to become more integrated into NATO tech programmes addressing cyber security concerns.  I am not sure how Pillar 2 of AUKUS, that is cyber and tech focussed, integrates with NATO’s plans but it seems likely there will be crossover. Reported discussions about offering South Korea and Japan access to Pillar 2 support this speculation.  Overall, we should expect to see a tightening of the relationship between IP4 countries and NATO.  More exercises, shared tech programmes and cyber security standards.  

Additionally, it is likely that we will see more support requested from IP4 countries for NATO sponsored military missions. An increase in activities like New Zealanders and Australians training Ukrainian soldiers, or South Korea providing ammunition to Ukraine.  In turn, this will mean the militaries of IP4 countries training to NATO standards and using the alliance’s doctrine to ensure inter-operability. This trend may also increase deployment of IP4 soldiers, sailors and aircrew on NATO missions.  The IP4 countries providing an international component for NATO.  A factor that presents the alliance as cosmopolitan rather than Eurocentric.  An important consideration if BRICS, the ‘Global South’ or a mixture of the two emerges as a new military power bloc. If this transpires, NATO’s international influence is increased by the participation of non-European partners in operations with the alliance.  

An especially important factor if the US withdraws into a more isolationist position after the Presidential election later this year. NATO will increasingly feel the need to fill any void left by the US because security issues on any of the world’s oceans effect member’s economies. The IP4 relationship appears to be evolving to mitigate this risk, NATO nations establishing relationships and exercising with nations like Japan and Australia building capabilities in this region in case the US steps back.

China responded angrily to NATO’s statements, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson stating that NATO is “breaching its boundary, expanding its mandate, reaching beyond its defense zone and stoking confrontation.”  China is obviously concerned about more NATO integration with US allies in the Pacific.  After the US, NATO is the most powerful economic and military force on Earth and its expanding interest ‘close to home’ is of grave concern for China.  

Australian Army to get Switchblade 300 drones

Australia has announced that Switchblade 300, loitering drones will to enter service with its army in 2025. Switchblade 300 a small drone that is launched from the ground and loiters over an area. It can operate in autonomous mode flying itself to a target or can be guided by an operator. The weapon has a range of about 10km and an endurance of about 15 minutes. 

Switchblade 300 was used extensively by the US in Afghanistan. The weapon was conceived as tool for infantry units to immediately respond to ambushes, with relatively low-cost but very accurate form of indirect fire.  The system is relatively light, each drone weighing about 2.5kg, so a number can be carried easily within an infantry unit. 

Essentially, the system provides very fast and accurate close-range form of indirect fire. It is especially useful for engaging enemy soldiers in defilade.  A Switchblade 300 can fly above cover, use its sensors to seek out a target then drop on to it.  A noteworthy feature of Switchblade 300 is that an attack can be stopped very easily, reducing the risk of non-combatant casualties.

Switchblade 300 is a very useful capability that will enhance the lethality of Australian land forces. The weapon allows infantry units to respond to contact without needing to wait for aircraft or for supporting artillery.  Mortar and artillery fire used to be the first point of call for infantry units and in historical conflicts these weapons generally engaged early and often.

However, on today’s battlefield with highly sophisticated artillery and mortar-locating tools these weapons risk destruction every time they unmask their location by firing.  Small drones like Switchblade 300 will never match the destructive capability of mortars and artillery but provide a new form of immediate indirect fire that can be used to attack minor targets allowing larger weapons to remain hidden.  

Chinese and Russian naval activity in the Pacific

This week was a busy week for the Chinese and Russian navies, exercising together and independently.  Although, this activity is relatively minor it provides an insight into the range of activities that these navies conduct. Both forces are active in the Pacific throughout the year, training collectively and individually.  

Annual Russian and Chinese joint naval patrol 

Last week Chinese and Russian warships started their annual naval patrol.  On 4 July, Russian corvette RFS Sovershenny rendezvoused with Chinese destroyer PLAN Yinchuan, frigate PLAN Hengshui and a fleet oiler PLAN Weishanhu in the Korea Strait. 

This patrol is the fourth joint patrol and operated around the south part of the island chain, near the Tsushima and Osumi Straits before transiting into the Pacific. Throughout the patrol, Japanese Self Defence Force ships and aircraft shadowed the flotilla. 

This patrol is a very minor activity, and was smaller this year than in previous years.  It is worth reporting and discussing because it demonstrates China and Russia’s desire to demonstrate solidarity. 

Chinese carrier group passes Taiwan and exercises in the Pacific

Chinese carrier, PLAN Shandong passed close to Taiwan on its way to the Pacific on 10 July.  The Japanese Self Defence Force reports that the PLAN Shandong and its escort conducted flight operations with its fighter aircraft and helicopters.  

Russian corvettes visiting the Pacific

On 8 July, Russian corvettes RFS Gromkiy and RFS Rezkiy left Vladivostok and entered the Pacific to conduct training exercises in the Pacific. The exercises are reported to include anti-submarine and air defence activities. Additionally, the ships may visit other countries in the Pacific but this has not been confirmed. 

Melanesian update 

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia. 

Solomon Islands and Vanuatu leaders visit China

The Prime Ministers of the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, Jeremiah Manele and Charlot Salwai visited China this week. The visits are part of wider diplomacy between the US, its partners and China to develop influence in the region. 

Board of Inquiry in Fijian patrol boat grounding released

The Fijian Defence Force has released the findings of the inquiry into the grounding of RFNS Puamau. The report found a range of human factors contributed to the accident. A Fiji Broadcasting Corporation article on 10 July stating that “The investigation found that the Commanding Officer and his command team failed to comply with accepted best bridge management practices.” (https://www.fbcnews.com.fj/news/investigation-reveals-negligence-in-grounding-of-rfns-puama/)  

This is an embarrassing situation for the Fiji Defence Force, highlighting low professional standards. A factor that disincentivise donations of sophisticated equipment to the nation.  It also highlights the need for larger nations donating equipment to ensure that their capital investment is supported by training.

Vanuatu issues first foreign policy statement

On 3 July, Vanuatu issued its first National Foreign Policy. A 52-page document that outlines Vanuatu’s foreign policy objectives, including four key goals:

• Promoting Vanuatu’s sovereignty including protecting its national boundaries.
• Enhancing the prosperity and well-being of Vanuatu people by encouraging trade and cooperation.
•  Promoting a, secure, stable and prosperous region.
• Contributing to global well-being by cooperating with other nations over global challenges.

The document analyses current geopolitical issues noting that the Pacific is affected by competition between major powers. The policy also clearly states Vanuatu’s commitment to collective security through the UN led international rules-based order is noteworthy. The ‘International Peace and Security’ section stating the nation’s position; and highlighting its history of commitment to collective security.  “As a small island developing state, Vanuatu has a strong national interest in supporting and promoting international peace and security through the relevant organisations and agreements. Vanuatu’s commitment as a responsible member of the international community has been demonstrated in the ten UN peacekeeping operations (in Timor-Leste, Darfur, Haiti, and Bosnia) to which Vanuatu has contributed since 2000. This is in addition to Vanuatu’s contribution to Bougainville peacekeeping operations in the 1990s, and to the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) from 2003-2017.”

The document is important because it represents a maturing sense of self-identity, an important consideration as the global politics impact on the Pacific.  Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Matai Seremaiah states in the introduction “The purpose of this paper is to make those national interests, and those objectives, clear.” By publishing a foreign policy statement Vanuatu is providing the international community and the major powers seeking influence with a clear statement of its own objectives, that can form the basis for future relationships.

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack