Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update: A simple explanation of this week’s military and political developments in the Pacific

US deploys its first Replicator Programme drones to the Pacific 

The US Indo-Pacific command is due to receive the first war-fighting drones developed through the Replicator Programme. This programme is a military and defence industry ‘accelerator’ designed to provide US and allied forces with large numbers of battlefield attack drones. The US plans to invest US $ 1 billion in the 2024-25 Financial Year on this programme.  

The Replicator Programme was announced in August 2023 and the first iterations of this technology will soon enter service with US forces in Hawaii.  The exact types coming into service have not been announced yet but the Switchblade 600 loitering anti-armour drone is rumoured to be the first system.  

In Ukraine, we are seeing swarms of piloted suicide drones replacing conventional artillery in some roles. Both sides using small drones to attack tanks, armoured vehicles or individual soldiers.  Breaking up attack formations or creating holes in defensive lines.  Roles traditionally performed by artillery.  The weakness of artillery is its physical infra-structure, guns and missile launchers being required that are easy to spot and to attack.  Drones on the other hand can be easily dispersed, launched and concentrated where they are required. 

Drone technology is a ‘force multiplier’ producing systems that increase the surveillance and strike capability of a force without using more soldiers.  An F-22 Raptor aircraft operating with a group of drone aircraft as wingmen, can see further, attack targets at greater distance and can use an unpiloted drone to test enemy defences.  Likewise, infantry soldiers gain similar benefits from drones.  The next step will be the use of AI to support drone operations, anyone that has played video games supported by Non-Player Characters will understand that there is not a large tech leap to allow a drone to loiter over the battlefield and work autonomously with a friendly unit.  

We should also be watching for the development of new anti-drone systems.  Small calibre Close-In Weapon Systems for armoured vehicles, jammers, electro-magnetic beam weapons and drone fighters are all coming. 

In the Pacific region we are also seeing the development of the digital infra-structure required to make drones inter-operable. The objective being that a US drone swarm could be seamlessly directed onto a target by Australian, Japanese, South Korean of Philippines units, or vice-versa.  Likewise, that information from surveillance drones can be shared instantly across the same partners. Technology partnerships like AUKUS provide opportunities for partner nations to share technology and develop the digital communications networks to use drones inter-operably. 

Finally, there is a requirement for moral and tactical discussions about command, control and management of autonomous and semi-autonomous drones.  An especially important consideration in an age of seamless inter-operability, during which service people from one country may be authorising the use of another country’s autonomous or semi-autonomous drones.

New Caledonia, currently calm but for how long?  

French President, Emmanuelle Macron spent last Thursday in New Caledonia. His visit coincided with the arrival of large numbers of French police and soldiers. But even with the large number of security forces on the island there was still violence at the end of last week, a rioter shot and killed by police on Friday 24 May.  This week the situation is calmer, the large security contingent and President Macron’s decision to pause electoral reform contributing to a calmer start to the week.

The violence in recent weeks is in connection to tensions between people that want independence from France and those that wish to remain a colony. The independence movement is supported by most of the colony’s indigenous people, known as Kanaks.  Since the 1998 Noumea Accord was signed, laying out a pathway for an independence discussion, the colony has held three referendums about independence.  The first two referendums returned in favour of remaining a French colony. The third in 2019 was boycotted by Kanaks, due to the impact of COVID 19 on the community. The boycott means that the third referendum’s results are disputed. 

A feature of the peace process is that the New Caledonian electoral roll was ‘frozen’ so that Kanak’s and long-term residents can vote but newer residents cannot.  Recently, the French government decided that this would change, new rules allowing more residents to vote reducing the percentage of Kanaks in the voting population.  A decision that has sparked the recent violence.

In the short-term, President Macron’s reasonable dialogue and the 3,000 police and soldiers deployed from France to secure the colony will probably stabilise the situation and provide an opportunity for pro-independence groups, loyalists and the government to discuss the situation.

However, in the long-term there is no simple solution. Most Kanaks, like many indigenous communities around the world want independence. Unfortunately, the colony is valuable to France, both for the perceived prestige and influence that comes with having a French outpost in the Pacific and for military and economic value.  

New Caledonia is a relatively rare large island in the Pacific, suitable for large military bases and with flat ground that can provide airfields. It also has deep water close by allowing large submarines to operate stealthily nearby. Although, France’s nuclear submarine fleet is seldom discussed it is active in the Pacific. For instance. In 1985 the nuclear-powered attack submarine Rubis evacuated French special forces soldiers that had sunk Greenpeace’s ship the Rainbow Warrior in Auckland Harbour, from a yacht called Ouvea near Norfolk Island. 

Additionally. New Caledonia sits at the north end of the vast Zealandia submarine continent.  An area rich in minerals, with good fishing grounds. The island itself is famous for its profitable nickel mines. Economically, the colony is worth retaining, a factor that combined with its military value makes the colony worth keeping.

Further, there is the human factor. Kanaks are about 40% of the population but the majority of residents are more recent immigrants, most from France with a strong sense of allegiance to their homeland. It is unlikely that these people will want to give up their links to France.  

Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the situation in New Caledonia will remain peaceful in the long-term. 

China’s activity around Taiwan – What’s really going on?

Last week the ocean and skies around Taiwan were full of Chinese ships, submarines and aircraft conducting large exercises. Part of the exercise programme is a direct and threatening protest about the election of Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-Te.  

However, there is a bigger picture and these exercises aim to do more than just scare Taiwan. First, this activity tests Taiwan’s defences.  China provided only 45 minutes notice of the exercises, a very short period and would have been carefully observing Taiwan’s response. For instance, how quickly were fighter planes scrambled?  Or air surveillance networks activated? How were Taiwanese Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft deployed; and how quickly? How did nearby US forces react?  Essentially, a large short-notice exercise that may cover an invasion forces Taiwan to show its hand, by deploying its defences.  And, as this is happening Chinese surveillance units can watch, listen and record; gathering valuable information for future planning.

Over-time sudden large exercises undermine Taiwan’s response. Soldiers, sailors and aircrew subjected to numerous false activations risk becoming bored and under-estimating the seriousness of a real attack, until it is too late.  Essentially, lots of large exercises can be used as a tactic to tire and weaken a defence.  

Already, the sight of Chinese forces swarming around Taiwan is reaching a saturation point in mainstream media, exciting less political response. The overall aim being to lull both Taiwan and its allies into a false sense of security, that it is normal for large numbers of Chinese ships, submarines and aircraft to be around Taiwan.  If China does decide to invade then forces can be pre-positioned under the cover of ‘normal’ activity. 

It is important that the international community maintains it vigilance and continues to protest this type of activity, by any nation.  Currently, it seems unlikely that China will transition to force. China does not yet have the military power to challenge the US. So, the key pre-condition for success in Taiwan is that America does not respond, either because of political indecision or a withdrawal into isolationist foreign policy.  President Biden’s recent foreign policy decisions dis-incentivise China taking direct action.  The unpredictability of a Trump Whitehouse holds more risk. 

Melanesian update 

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia. 

Papua New Guinea parliament’s ‘No Confidence’ motion in Prime Minister

Papua New Guinea’s parliament continues to be a hotbed of politics. Another ‘No Confidence’ motion against Prime Minister James Marape is imminent. Although, the motion has not yet been tabled it is rumoured to include claims of corruption and failure to achieve stated policy objectives.  

Last weekend, 18 members of Marape’s coalition defected and the situation is tense.

 This activity is another example of small Pacific parliaments using ‘No Confidence’ motions in a manner that is de-stabilising. Papua New Guinea provides an example of the human impact of these political tactics because in the same week as its parliament is paralysed by a ‘No Confidence’ vote, the nation suffered a huge landslide the death toll of which is unknown but likely to be in the thousands.  The Prime Minister is stuck fighting a political battle in Port Moresby rather than focussing on helping Enga province’s community recover from the landslide.  Stable political leadership is very important during emergencies and that role is undermined by this type of political activity. 

Vanuatu conducts referendum to reduce political instability

This week people in Vanuatu vote on whether the nation’s constitution should be amended to reduce political instability. The referendum proposes inserting two new articles in the constitution. The first would require any elected representative that is expelled from their party to vacate their seat in parliament. The second amendment would require all Members of Parliament to declare their party allegiances within three months of being elected.

The overall aim of these proposed amendments is to stop the fluid politicking that currently destabilises Vanuatu’s parliament.  Politicians rapidly change their allegiances making development of a stable government difficult. The results of the vote may have significant impact on the nation’s political stability and are definitely worth watching. 

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack