Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update A simple explanation of this week’s military and political developments in the Pacific

Trouble in New Caledonia 

This week violent rioting broke out in Noumea, the capital of France’s Pacific colony, New Caledonia.  The riots were sparked by the French government’s decision to make constitutional reform that essentially ‘unfreezes’ the New Caledonian electoral roll making any referendum on the colony’s independence less likely to return a pro-independence result. 

The current violence has a long history, New Caledonia is a French colony and its indigenous people, called Kanaks, have long sought independence. In the late 1980’s, the issue of independence from France escalated into violence, and in 1988 a political settlement called the Matigon Agreement laid out a ten-year plan to discuss independence.  In 1998, this discussion translated into the Noumea Accord that ‘froze’ the electoral roll in 2007.

In 2019, an independence referendum was held but was boycotted by Kanaks.  The main independence group, the Kanak Socialist and Liberation Front (FLKNS) telling its supporters to stay home and not participate. The outcome of the referendum has been contested ever since. In March 2024, after rioting in Noumea, the ‘Pacific Brief’ discussed the French government’s proposal for constitutional changes that would ‘unfreeze’ the New Caledonian electoral roll.  Now, after the French government has decided to make the change, pro-independence groups are rioting. Concerned the changes will dilute the indigenous vote, making it less likely future referendums will favour independence.

On 13 March 2024, we assessed that “Political tensions in France’s largest Pacific colony are increasing and are liable to get worse.  It seems a safe bet that France has no intention of giving up its Pacific colonies, increased French diplomacy in the region recently indicating that France wants to retain an interest in the region.”  Unfortunately, this assessment seems to be correct and tension in New Caledonia is likely to increase.

Currently, tension in New Caledonia is dangerous because of the wider context of Sino-American competition.  Although New Caledonia is a French colony, it is important because its strategic location makes it valuable territory in wider Sino-American competition. And, political instability is sometimes used by external powers to pursue their own diplomatic goals in a foreign country. Historically, many nations including China and the US have taken advantage of instability within other countries.  The level of Sino-American competition surrounding the Pacific means that smart people in both countries will be assessing the situation and looking for opportunities.

The US and Australia will be concerned about Chinese influence and in February 2024, French Home Affairs and Overseas Minister Gérald Darmanin met with Australian officials to discuss how the two nations will work together in the Pacific. Darmanin stating afterwards that “We want to work with them [Australia] on matters of strategic protection in relation to great powers such as China, which is sometimes behaving in a predatory manner towards our territories.” Darmanian’s statement clearly indicates French concerns about China’s intent in the region. Worries echoed in March 2024 by New Caledonian politician Virginie Ruffenach, who raised concerns about China’s economic influence on the colony. 

History tells us that independence movements do not disappear and New Caledonia is already an outlier, one of the few remaining European colonies left anywhere in the world.  However, the Pacific is rich in resources and France is unlikely to hand power back to the indigenous people.  The US will support France and if China is seeking to de-stabilise Melanesia, supporting an indigenous independence movement in New Caledonia could provide opportunities to create more instability. New Caledonia’s Melanesian neighbours are all former colonies, unlikely to be sympathetic to France. Additionally, Chinese support for independence could be interpreted positively creating more sympathy for Chinese diplomacy.  A trend that would concern the US and Australia. 

In my opinion, New Caledonia presents a very difficult problem, one that powers like the US, Australia, South Korea, Japan and NATO countries need to be discussing with France. Encouraging a change in direction with regards to independence because there may be options for a greater Kanak voice in the colony’s government that may resolve tensions. Or possibly, explaining that colonies are a legacy of an era that no longer exists and should disappear.  If not, New Caledonia has the potential to become a point of ‘grey zone’ conflict. A situation that could destabilise Melanesia. 

Exercise Balikatan finishes

On 10 May, Exercise Balikatan finished. This year the exercise was large and involved approximately 16,000 service people from the US, Philippines, Australia, UK and France.  This year’s exercise took place against a backdrop of tension in the South China Sea.  Philippines and its allies are involved in a ‘grey zone’ conflict with China about territorial claims to the sea.  Therefore, this year’s Exercise Balikatan was more than just an exercise. It is also a show of resolve and a demonstration of capability.  

On 6 May, a key activity was a live-fire practice simulating defence against an amphibious assault. Soldiers from the Philippine Army’s 502nd Brigade, Philippine Marine Corps’ 4th Marine Brigade and the U.S. Marine Corps’ 3rd Littoral Combat Team exercised together practicing the coordination required in a joint operation defending an island.  

On 8 May, the exercise included a demonstration of US, Philippines and Australian inter-operability that used land, sea and air platforms from all three nations to locate, track and guide missiles to hit a target ship off the west coast of Luzon. The target ship was tracked by ships, land-based radar and an Australian E-7 Wedgetail Airborne Early Warning and Command (AWAC) plane.  Then attacks were coordinated using aircraft and ship launched missiles and bombs.  

A feature of the Cold War was the use of large exercises as a deterrent, demonstrating that a side was not only willing but also capable of fighting.  This year’s Exercise Balikatan is reminiscent of the Cold War, the US and its allies demonstrating their capability to fight with Philippines as a deterrent to escalation of the conflict in the South China Sea. The exercise demonstrated capabilities like defending against amphibious assaults and sinking ships, signalling clearly that military action in the South China Sea can be challenged. Historically, deterrence works and it will be interesting to follow events in the South China Sea and chart China’s response. 

US and Taiwanese navies conducted unpublicised exercises last month 

On 14 May, Reuters reported that the US and Taiwanese navies conducted un-reported exercises, practicing basic inter-operability in April.  (See –  https://www.reuters.com/world/us-taiwan-navies-quietly-held-pacific-drills-april-sources-say-2024-05-14/) Reuter’s sources said the exercises involved simple tasks like working in formation, refuelling ships at sea and searching for submarines. It also 

Two navies exercising together is not unusual, however the circumstances of this exercise are worth further reflection. The low-key nature of the exercise is important because its demonstrates the tension between the US and China in this region. Instead of overt deterrence this activity is an example of two militaries quietly and carefully preparing. It is a sign that the US is taking the Taiwan situation seriously.

Canada signals an increase in defence spending 

On 13 May Canadian Defence Minister William Blair met with US Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin to discuss security and defence issues. Blair discussed the deteriorating world security situation and that Canada needs to respond to the world’s changing political situation. 

Canada is planning to increase its defence budget to 2% of GDP and this will help fund:

• Improved equipment for operations in the Arctic.
• Modernising the surveillance of air space over the Arctic, Canada and the US. 
• Support for Ukraine.
• Increased contributions of military forces to NATO.

Canada’s presence in the Pacific is seldom discussed but the nation contributes to collective security in the region. Its ships and aircraft working closely with UN patrols enforcing sanctions on North Korea and supporting ‘freedom of navigation’ patrols in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Canada, Australia and New Zealand are also historic partners working together in a range of military and intelligence partnerships.  

Canada’s increase in defence spending is an acknowledgement of the nations concerns about security.  Additionally, we can probably expect to see Canada playing a more active role in the Pacific supporting collective security.  

Melanesian update 

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia. 

New Zealand Foreign Affairs Minister visits Vanuatu and promises more aid for police

Winston Peters, New Zealand’s Minister of Foreign Affairs recently visited Vanuatu.  A key announcement is that New Zealand will strengthen its support for Vanuatu’s police force investing NZ$ 7.5 million in aid.  Regular readers of this column will be familiar with Australian and US concerns about Chinese police support to small Pacific nations. This aid is likely to be an indication that New Zealand shares similar concerns.  

UK warship support fisheries protection in Fiji

HMS Tamar, a UK patrol vessel is currently touring the Pacific and recently visited Fiji.  HMS Tamar is supporting small Pacific nations conducting fisheries and surveillance patrols on behalf of these countries. In this case, Fijian law enforcement officers travel onboard.

This voyage is another example of countries worried about security in the Pacific committing resources to supporting law enforcement and surveillance activities. US Coastguard vessels are operating in the same manner across the Pacific. If Sino-American tensions continue to increase we should expect to see more of this type of activity.  Starting with countries like the UK and Canada and possibly evolving to include other US partners like Japan, South Korea and NATO nations. Ship visits are a good way for foreign navies to familiarise themselves with local conditions in case of future conflict and also serve as a deterrent to aggression. 

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack