Ben Morgan: Pokrovsk and Kursk, where will Russian resources go?
Ukraine’s plan in Kursk is to draw forces away from Russia’s main effort, capturing Pokrovsk. Ukraine’s attack into Kursk is a success, they achieved surprise and have captured about 1,200 square kilometres. Further, Russia does not seem able to respond effectively. But, is the attack achieving its objective?
At this stage, the effectiveness of Ukraine’s plan is hard to determine. The advance into Kursk looks significant on a map, and a recent New York Times article report, US officials estimate that Russia will need 15-20 brigades (or approximately 50,000 soldiers) to drive Ukraine out of Kursk. But the real test of the offensive’s success is that it excites a large enough Russian response to shape the situation near Pokrovsk. A point that is still being debated on the battlefields of Ukraine.
The ‘Big Picture:’ How the campaign is developing
Strategically, both sides are still committed to air campaigns using drones and missiles to damage their opponent’s economic infra-structure. Ukraine launching damaging drone strikes on Russian oil depots this week and a large attack on Moscow. Meanwhile, Russia continues its air campaign against Ukraine’s power grid. But this war will be won and land, and that is where we must focus our analysis. In Russia, Putin faces mounting political pressure and embarrassment that may force him to step back from his current plan and reinforce Kursk. Likewise, Ukraine’s situation is precarious because it has committed lots of resource to diverting Russian forces from Donetsk to Kursk. Resources that Ukraine cannot afford to waste.
The land campaign continues to teeter at a point of balance, Russia remaining committed to its main effort, capturing Pokrovsk. Ukraine working hard to relieve Russian pressure on Pokrovsk by attacking 360km to the north-east at Kursk. But it is hard to appreciate the effect that Ukraine wants to impose on Russia, are they: Trying to prevent the capture of Pokrovsk? Or, has Ukraine accepted that this is inevitable, so aims instead to limit exploitation of the town’s capture by reducing Russian reserves? And, with only Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) available, it is impossible to be certain, although the large commitment of forces to the Kursk attack may indicate that Ukraine needs immediate results. For instance, preventing the capture of Pokrovsk.
However, we can confidently state that Russia’s main effort is capturing Pokrovsk, and from that it is reasonable to extrapolate a longer-term goal of capturing the whole of Donetsk Oblast. Pokrovsk controls a major road junction that would allow Russia to extend its offensive north or south.
Evidence for this assessment includes Russia’s recent re-organisation of its Central Group of Forces, the element operating in Donetsk. This change was followed by Russian forces in the area demonstrating much greater tactical flexibility in July and August, switching directions of attack quickly as they actively sought Ukraine’s weak points. Russia’s dogged commitment to the battle in Donetsk, regardless of Ukraine’s actions in Kursk, reinforces this assessment of main effort. Russia is trading ground in Kursk for time in Donetsk, focussing entirely on the main effort.
Since Ukraine’s offensive aims to divert resources away from the main effort, this is the measure by which its success must be judged.
The situation in Kursk
Ukraine continues to slowly expand the pocket of land it holds. Further, it has destroyed three large bridges crossing the Syem River cutting off a group of Russian soldiers. Destroying the bridges and trapping a group of soldiers creates a threat that Russia must address. The soldiers trapped in the area (shown by cross hatching on the map) are mostly conscripts and national guardsmen. The conscripts are young men straight out of high school completing national service, a group that is specifically excluded from service in Ukraine. Russian policy is that only reservists and volunteers, called ‘contract soldiers’ will serve in Ukraine.
By threatening to kill or capture large numbers of conscripts, Ukraine heightens the political impact of the operation. The tacit approval the Russian people extend Putin could be withdrawn if lots of young conscripts are killed or captured.
Russia is slowly bringing new forces into the area and is a working hard to build defences. However, the situation is hampered by accurate Ukrainian depth fire. Aircraft working together with ground launched missiles like HIMARS and ATCAMs to strike concentrations of troops moving forwards. Ukraine appears to be winning the targeting battle, drones and special forces groups operating deep behind the front line to find and report targets.
It is noteworthy that Ukraine has deployed some of its best Western equipment for this operation including Challenger 2 tanks. This British main battle tank is used in small numbers, roughly squadron strength (company in the US) by the 82nd Air Assault Brigade. The tank’s deployment is confirmed by Russian video of one being destroyed. The tactical employment of these tanks is interesting, Ukraine using them behind lighter forces to provide long-range accurate fire. A first-generation, Challenger 1 holds the record for the longest-range confirmed tank kill, hitting an Iraqi T-62 at 4,700 during the 1990 Gulf War. Challenger 2 uses the same gun with vastly improved fire control, so is a very capable platform for long-range sniping attacks.
Another feature of Ukraine’s tactical success is the Kropyva computerised tactical information and fire control system. When we discuss ‘network centric’ war, it is systems like Kropyva that enable this type of war-fighting. The system was developed a long-time ago around 2014-16 and is now maturing in service. Essentially, Kropyva is an app running on the Android operating system and in each vehicle, there is a rugged computer terminal using the system. Kropyva maps where friendly and enemy forces are, and allows units to transfer information about their situation to each other digitally. This means that tactical information can be shared immediately and accurately between vehicles, or between units.
However, Kropyva also integrates drones and ballistic calculations into the network. For instance, drone footage can be shared instantly with a Challenger 2 tank, a mortar detachment or an artillery battery that receives not just information about the target, but also fire data to immediately engage the target. Kropyva means that Ukraine’s units have excellent situational awareness and the ability to utilise any weapons system that is in range to engage Russian targets.
Meanwhile, Russia faces a very different problem, trying to manage a confused local command structure. Andrey Belousov, head a five-person team working together to manage the situation is managing a multi-agency joint task force. Command lines between the security service (FSB), national guard (Rosgvardia) and army are reportedly convoluted and difficult to manage. A situation that is slowing down Russia’s response.
But is the attack working? What is the effect in Pokrovsk?
Russia is currently engaging Ukraine’s defensive line, that is demarcated by Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and Selydove. Although areas are under pressure near Krasnyi Yar and Novohrodivka, an imminent collapse is not apparent. This assessment is strengthened by Russia’s recent movement south, appearing to be looking for a flank to turn near Selydove. This rapid evolution of the tactical plan indicates that in this area Russia command structure is working effectively.
The race south is inevitable because the Ukrainian flank north of Novohrodivka is secured by lakes and canals. However, as Russian forces swing south they run into a similar geographic block about 14 km south of Selydove when they hit he Vocha River. Further, the ground south of Selydove is more undulating and Russian forces will be advancing ‘across the grain’ of the land rather than with it.
At this point, Russia has been engaging the Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and Selydove defensive line for about a week. Ukraine is reportedly evacuating the area around Pokrovsk and may be getting ready to withdraw. But at this stage, there are probably days or weeks left in fighting along the current line as Russia tries to turn the southern flank, so I am not expecting a sudden Ukrainian withdrawal.
It is too early to say whether Russia’s slow progress is related to the fighting in Kursk. The Kursk operation was never going to draw units committed this attack away: instead, the effect would be on reserves and whether Russia’s second echelon would have the weight to push through. Coming days and weeks will tell us more, as the attack on Pokrovsk either advances or fails.
Summary
In Russia, oligarch Oleg Tinkov is publicly criticising Putin’s ‘crazy’ war. Criticism that follows similar criticism last month from another oligarch, Oleg Deripaska. Although these men lack the power to unseat Putin, the fact that they are publicly criticising him is significant because it indicates that they do not fear retribution. Tinkov and Deripaska obviously sense growing discontent and are willing to take risks, indicating holes in Putin’s hold on power. However, despite the commentary about the psychological effect of Ukraine’s operation, it is unlikely that Putin will be toppled in a coup or removed. Putin is a hard man, and militarily the situation in Kursk is recoverable. He can wait, finish the battle in Pokrovsk then deal with Kursk.
The situation reminded me about an anecdote that I recollect is from the author Vladimir Bogdanovich Rezun, a Soviet general who defected to the West and wrote military books using the pseudonym Viktor Suvorov. Rezum lectured at NATO staff colleges, discussing the differences between Soviet and Western tactics. And, I will paraphrase the anecdote as I remember it, Rezum posed the following tactical problem to NATO officers: If you have three units under your command; one is advancing according to plan, one is static and one is in danger of being overrun. Which unit should you allocate more resource too?
The Soviet answer was that resources should go to the unit advancing according to the plan, always maintain resource at the point of decision. Resources sent to support the unit being overrun were likely to be wasted, and since the static unit was surviving on its own it did not need further resources. A view that was often challenged by NATO officers, but that may provide an insight into Putin’s thinking. He is product of the same Soviet system, and raised on the myths of Russian sacrifice in the Great Patriotic War. A person for whom sacrificing land or soldiers in exchange for victory is an easy calculation.
However, although he is unlikely to be removed from power there will be voices in his inner circle calling for more to be done in Kursk. Some will be ‘hawks’ embarrassed by the situation; others will be politicians worried about the public’s reaction to the loss of conscript soldiers. This is the unknown factor that Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk aims to influence. Can it make these voices loud enough that Putin makes a poor militarily decision and switches resources away from the main effort? Only time will tell.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
You would think that with the overwhelming superior troop and material in Russia’s favour (as claimed by the pro Russian imperialist commentators on the blog) that Ukraine after 3 years would have been wipe off the map and integrated back into the Russian imperialist empire.
No mention by Ben in regards the Indian prime minister Modi visits to both Moscow and Kiev within one week. What forces are at play with that? Modi did not visit both antagonists for the sake of his health. Whilst India is technically a BRIC member, they are not too blind to see the need for relations in the centre and eastern European counties. The ongoing war is not in India’s best interest.
Worth a read; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2e9zrywq9o
“Mr Modi is also visiting Poland on this trip – the first Indian PM to visit the country in 45 years. He also became the first Indian prime minister to visit Austria in 41 years in July.
Analysts say that this signals India’s growing understanding that Central European nations will play a bigger role in geopolitics in the future and strong relations with them will serve Delhi well.”
Well, there is only so much that the washing machine tech-equipped, shovel-strong, pick-axe a plenty, and unbelievably incompetently led Russian army can do! Still, this motley crew did manage to bring Ukraine to the peace bargaining table within a week or so of their silly-military-operation. But of course, the outcome of that meeting was quickly scarpered by Boris Johnson on behalf of the USA, hence we have the unnecessary tragedy befalling the world now. This is an elfin tragedy because all Russia ever wanted, and they have made this clear, countless times is a NATO-less Ukraine who also treats the (then) millions of Russians living within Ukraine as equal citizens. In a just world, Russia’s preferences are perfectly reasonable. Alas, we do not live in a just world!!
What a load of codswallop. Ukraine is an independent sovereign state that can choose who it belongs to and what government it wants. It has zero to do with Russia. If Russia wanted a barrier between it and NATO is was free to build one on its own territory.
Russia’s stated aim has now changed to the latest peace offer by Putin to make the four disputed provinces part of Russia. What imperialistic non sense to invade a country, claim sovereignty of a large part of it, tell the people what they cannot belong to and who they can elect. You actually believe that is OK? You and I live in different worlds. Not OK by my standards.
NATO was already on Russia’s border (The Baltic States) and now that includes Finland. Russia has lost the war in that they have lost control of The Black Sea (controlled by a country without a navy), The Baltic Sea (Sweden joining NATO now controls access through the Baltic Sea) and have NATO camped right next door on an even long border. Russia is likely to loose the only western warm water port for they are withdrawing defense forces from Kaliningrad.
All because they thought that the ability to dictate what Ukrainians can decide to do as a nation was not to their amusement.
Just imagine if Australia invaded New Zealand because we wanted to join BRIC and that was not to the Australian’s amusement.
What part of self determination do you not comprehend? Or are you happy with imperialistic expansion provided it is your enemy’s enemy carrying out imperialistic expansion? Sick that you can expunge Ukrainian freedoms so easily.
Its not practical to build a barrier that bombs/drones can easily fly over Gerrrit. You are right, a country has no right to tell another country what it can and cannot do and this war highlights the fact that Russia respected this position. We are at war because there is a third party here influencing this calamity – NATO-USA. This party knows Russia’s “red-lines” and yet it is pushing Ukraine into breaking them through encouraging them to join NATO anyway. Russia can’t stop Ukraine from doing as it pleases but it can stop the other party from crossing its very, very well known red lines. Again, this is why they are at war, but this is also why Russia has not engaged in a shock and awe, wipe them off the face of the map, US-NATO styled military campaign. Russia’s real problem is with US-NATO, it is not with their cousins next door. But depending on how hard US-NATO pushes Ukraine, then the Russian gloves may well come off. Self determination is one thing, understanding all the players in this calamity is another!
As for the Baltic states, Russia are peeved about this turn of events, but unlike Ukraine, the Baltic states are not heavily populated with Russians thus they don’t have to fight them with kid gloves. They can shock and awe them if need be.
US meddling — compromised Ukrainian sovereignty
“Brussels, Kyiv, Moscow React To Leaked Nuland Phone Call “, Radio Free Europe, 2014 – https://www.rferl.org/a/nuland-russia-eu-ukraine-reaction/25256828.html
“Nuland-Pyatt leaked phone conversation” – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV9J6sxCs5k
“US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev, Guardian, 2004 – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa
“Overextending and Unbalancing Russia”, Rand, 2019 – https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
Thwarted peace deal
“Boris Johnson Pressured Zelenskyy to Ditch Peace Talks With Russia: Ukrainian Paper:, Common Dreams, 2022 – https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper
“Possibility of talks between Zelenskyy and Putin came to a halt after Johnson’s visit – UP sources”, UKRAINSKA PRAVDA, 2022 – https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/5/7344206/
“UK PM Johnson says Ukraine peace talks are doomed because of “crocodile” Putin”, Reuters, April , 2022 – https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/negotiating-with-putin-like-dealing-with-crocodile-uk-pm-johnson-says-2022-04-20/
Russia. The peace deal goals (namely a neutral Ukraine)
“Putin’s shocking revelations show there can be no negotiations with Kiev”, BRICS, 2023 – https://infobrics.org/post/38648
Background info (does Russia really have imperialistic aims?)
Setting the Record Straight; Stuff You Should Know About Ukraine. “The War began before the Russian Invasion”, Global Research, 2023 – https://www.globalresearch.ca/setting-the-record-straight-stuff-you-should-know-about-ukraine/5807548
So imperialistic Russia has the capabilities to “shock and awe” Ukraine into oblivion. Got it.
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM maybe Russia are thinking that might be a NATO red line in the nuclear doctrine with those pesky 16+ NATO nuclear armed submarines ready to strike St Peterburg and Moscow. Retaliation would be swift (at least from the British and French submarines – who knows what waffling the USA will go on about first)
For nuclear is the only weapon they could “shock and awe” with not much”shock and awe” available to even defend Russian soil with the troops and material at their disposal.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it is all Ukraine’s fault that Russia has imperialistic ideas fostered by a aging leader in his last grasp at being a czar.
As for who started the current war, well Russia off course. Yes there was a civil war in south eastern Ukraine. NOTE a civil war, where Russian backed militant (who shot down a civilian airliner thanks to Russian equipment) that had nothing to do with Russia except that the people there wanted to be part of Russia. Russia would have been better to let all the Russian speakers emigrate into Russia to bolster that economy rather the supply material for the continuation of the civil war. At no stage did Russia as a security council member at the UN raise concerns about the civil war. Instead happy to foster insurgent conflict for a goal to try and “liberate” all of Ukraine for reintegration into the motherland.
There will never be a peace deal whilst Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil. That includes the Donbass region. Again Ukraine is an independent nation and if they want to listen to Johnston advice, they are free to do so.
It is for Ukraine to decide if they want to be “neutral”, not for Russia to demand in the Russian imperialistic ideal . Ukraine is a free nation, not an outer Russian satellite state like Belarus.
Concepts of freedom for Ukrainians to decide their own future seems foreign to some people.
Good work Gerrit but you are shouting into the wind trying to reason with the Putin Apologists on here ..
No James, this conflict involves real people, ordinary people, tens of thousands of us, being needlessly maimed and killed because of the foibles of the political class. This is why I am here – to heck with the hollywood bad guy script (Putin in this case) used to both hide the realities of war and to focus people’s attention in one direction only. The world needs peace, not more bad guy hollywood scripts designed to help sell war!
Yep, the hatred for the USA and the western world is so deep that no amount of reasoning will be entertained. The Russians are against the USA and the west, so are their friends, friends that can do no wrong and are doing gods work.
The “shock and awe” no doubt will be the destruction of the Kyiv HPP dam that would flood a third of Kiyv and cause destruction all the way down the Dnipro river.
Jeepers Gerrit, you really do thrash about with baseless accusations. For example “hatred for the USA”. You might want to consider that it is possible to actually hate the neocons and militarists (who I believe care for the US either) and to actually like America, it’s culture and people.
As for your apocalyptic idea of Russia destroying dams, why now? Given they’ve destroyed the power network why would they bother?
Don’t mistake hating Nazis as the same as being “pro Russian or anti West, dumbass.
No, you have not got anything at all! The third party in this calamity, US-NATO, specifically their influence on Ukraine, is oblivious to you, let alone the (non-nuclear) “shock and awe” tactics that they inflicted upon the Middle East, from which I take the name from to imply what Russia are capable of producing too (along with the reasoning as to why they haven’t gone down this ‘wipe them off the map’ road as you called this earlier, so far).
As for freedom, self-determination, sovereignty, these lovely concepts all live in a world which is ruled by one superpower, the USA, meaning, these concepts are largely meaningless to every nation but the USA.
Ironically, the concept that is foreign to many people is – Geopolitics – the forces that influence the interrelations between nations.
As I said earlier, your enemy’s enemy is your friend. And your friend is gods gift to the universe. Your friend can stamp their feet and you would support them 100% without any second thoughts or scruples on your part.
Your hatred for the USA overshadows any reasoning.
You’re projecting Gerrit, whatever you feel for the USA blinds you to their actions, to their influence, to their unique position in the world. No wonder their part in this calamity is absent in your thinking.
As for myself, I am too ordinary to bother with.
From
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/08/ukraine-sitrep-collaps-at-the-donbas-front.html
“Over the last weeks the Russian operation west of Avdivka towards Pokrovsk has been accelerating. Currently the Russian forces are taking three or more towns per day. Cities with some 15,000 pre-war inhabitants, like Novogrodivka, are falling within 24 hours.
…
The Ukrainian army in the Donbas region, or whatever is left of it, is currently on the run. There is little fighting – and damage – in the settlements. The Ukrainian artillery seems to be out of ammunition.
The Ukrainian casualties are still high. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported today of 2,345 Ukrainian casualties (within Ukraine and the Kursk region of Russia.) Since the Ukrainian attack on Kursk the number of casualties has generally exceeded 2,000 per day, a number that was rarely seen previously.
The Ukraine leadership had sent its best troops, pulled from the Donbas frontline, and reserves to attack within Russia into the direction of the Kursk nuclear power plant. Some 15 kilometer into Russia the troops got stuck. They are now on the defense and will slowly be eradicated. Such an operation against Russia, which likely knew what was coming, never had a chance to develop into something bigger.”
On the run in Donbass, getting crushed in Kursk, where now for Ukraines army is the question? Military coup in Kiev maybe? I saw Blackrock complain that Ukraine were buying their dead on land the they had purchased. It’s all unraveling. That is what you get when you sabotage a peace plan as Johnson did.
Bens next missive should be fun. How to persuade us that Kursk isn’t a disaster, that the Challengers and Abrams aren’t burning, that and F15 wasn’t shot down by friendly fire. Then there’s the Donbass where the Russians have broken through. Better be good Ben.