Ben Morgan: Kursk Salient, the bad reasons why it is so important

Negotiations are moving rapidly, and last week was punctuated by activity that indicates a ceasefire may be close. On 8 March, President Trump used a social media post to warn Russia about potential sanctions. Later in the week, US negotiators flew to Moscow to present the deal developed with Ukraine in Saudi Arabia.

On 13 March, speaking from the Oval Office Trump issued another warning to Russia saying “I can do things financially that would be very bad for Russia. I don’t want to do that because I want to get peace.” And on Thursday, speaking to CNBC Scott Bessent, US Secretary of the Treasury echoed the President’s comments indicating that Trump’s cabinet is planning for sanctions against Russia.

Putin responded in the manner most people expected him too. He kept the US envoy waiting for eight hours, then agreed ‘in principle’ to a ceasefire but stated a long list of conditions. Putin then took the opportunity to position himself as Trump’s equal by saying he will call the President, and discuss the situation. Meanwhile, Ukrainian and Russian drones and missiles continued to cross the border delivering large and destructive attacks.

On the battlefield, Russia is currently closing the Kursk Salient. An operation that tells us a lot about war generally, and about how the Ukraine War is evolving.

Kursk, Russia’s new main effort

In recent weeks, I have discussed how important it is to watch where and how Russia’s combat power is used. This week Russia’s plan emerged and we witnessed its main effort switching from the fighting in Donetsk to crushing the Kursk Salient. An operation that has clearly been planned for some time, but that probably advanced rapidly last week when the US froze intelligence to Ukraine.

In recent months Russia has prioritised Donetsk, probably aiming to capture the Oblast before any ceasefire came into effect. Donetsk is mostly controlled by Russia and only two large cities remain in Ukrainian hands, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Since February last year, Russia’s land campaign has been focussed on this goal.

Initially, Russia tried to exploit the capture of Avdiivka by quickly taking Chasiv Yar, that would then allow it to attack Kostyantynivka. The latter is a small town that controls road and rail routes into Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. When Chasiv Yar proved too hard to take, Russia probed further south eventually trying unsuccessfully to capture Pokrovsk. This town is located on a dominant position that controls road and rail routes heading north to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Pokrovsk’s eastern approach is easily fortified, and in September 2024, I predicted that Pokrovsk would not fall (See – Pokrovsk, it looks like General Syrskyi has bad news for Russia – https://benmorganmil.substack.com/p/pokrovsk-it-looks-like-general-syrskyi ) and to date this prediction remains correct. Late last year, after advancing from the east Russia changed its plan and tried to envelop Pokrovsk from the south but was not successful.

In the last two weeks, after capturing Toretsk, Russia transferred its effort back to the area near Chasiv Yar. However, since then Russian offensive activity in Donetsk has slowed down, and Ukraine re-captured Toretsk, and some areas near Pokrovsk.

Clearly, during his period Russia was moving its most powerful forces out of Donetsk, north-west to Kursk. Paratroopers, marines and elite drone operators assembling in Kursk alongside a new tranche of North Koreans. Russia massing roughly 50,000 soldiers in the area, enough to overmatch the 10-15,000 defenders.

A series of operations designed to cut Ukrainian supply lines were initiated, for example special forces infiltrations using gas pipes to sneak behind the defenders and the deployment of an elite drone unit called Rubicon to interdict the flow of logistics into the salient. Pressure that bore fruit this week with Ukraine making a series of withdrawals from the salient.

Russia’s objective is to encircle Ukrainian forces and force them to withdraw, and a worst case scenario would be that Russia completely cuts off the Ukrainians in the salient. But are the Ukrainians surrounded or being massacred? The Ukrainians are certainly under pressure, even Zelensky saying the situation is ‘‘difficult’’ but they are far from being surrounded or about to be massacred. The map below shows the current situation.

Russia’s advance to Basivka certainly threatens Ukraine’s ‘main supply route,’ the H07 Highway. Likewise, the advance from Kurilovka has split Ukraine’s forces in two, but Ukraine still has a wide range of options for withdrawal. The key points being that although Ukrainian troops in the salient are under pressure, it is unlikely they will be surrounded or massacred.

What this operational-level manoeuvre tells us about Russia’s strategic position

Russia’s closure of the Kursk Salient is being used by Putin as political theatre, an opportunity to demonstrate the inevitability of the Russian victory. A line that the US President and political elite appear to have bought. Trump telling the world via social media that he has asked Putin to spare the lives of the trapped Ukrainians. An interesting post that indicates to the world that the President believes Putin is ‘calling the shots’ in the Kursk battle.

Putin is a master of bluff, a clever spin doctor, able to create an image of power that is not backed by reality. Unfortunately, Trump appears to buy Putin’s bluffs and this appears to impact on US policy. In my opinion, the situation in Kursk is interesting because it tells us several key things about Russia’s position.

Currently, the war is probably in its final stages and two factors contribute to this assessment. The first is that both sides appear tired and unable to conduct operationally significant manoeuvre. Not only is the war draining manpower and material but both sides are struggling to integrate new technology that changes tactical assumptions. For instance, achieving operational-level manoeuvre used to involve moving large armoured formations rapidly across open country. Tactics that are suicidal on the Ukrainian battlefield. This change impacts on how staff officers plan, how logisticians support the frontline, and on how soldiers are trained. Both sides need a timeout, to absorb these changes and reconstitute their forces in the face of new technologies.

The second factor is the new US president, who changed the dynamics of the strategic situation by bringing a new level of uncertainty into considerations. No one really knows which way Trump will go, and this presents opportunities for Russia. The previous administration clearly supported Ukraine, and was likely to maintain that support until Ukraine was ready to stop fighting. Trump changed that dynamic forcing both sides to negotiate, and now Putin is working hard to ensure that he gets what he wants.

The battle for the Kursk Salient is a good example of how a tactical-level battle can impact on strategic-level manoeuvre. In a military sense, losing the Kursk Salient at this point is ‘no skin off Ukraine’s nose’ the operation achieved its operational-level effect, drawing Russian forces away from Donetsk.

In fact, when we consider the lack of Russian offensive activity in Donetsk alongside the Kursk operation the situation indicates Russia’s lack of combat power. Russia has spent the last year trying to capture all of Donetsk, including implementing a new command structure, and developing new levels of tactical flexibility but failed to capture the key towns that dominate the road and rail junctions it needs to threaten Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The harsh reality appears to be that Russia has relatively limited resources after being attrited during failed attacks on Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. So now Russia can only attack in one place, Kursk.

Putin annexed Donetsk Oblast and the fact that Ukraine still holds two of its largest cities betrays the fact that his forces are not invincible. Now as US policy solidifies, and Trump’s focus on ending the fighting quickly becomes apparent, Putin knows he has an opportunity and is ‘spinning’ the elimination of the Kursk Salient to create strategic leverage.

Summary

The Kursk Salient is developing as a schwerpunkt, or decision point of the strategic battle. Although this battle is at the tactical-level its influence is huge because it reinforces Trump’s image of Russia as a major power, and that Putin is a strong and capable leader. Trump appears to be an emotional person, influenced by personal likes and dislikes rather than by information and logic. He demonstrably does not like Ukraine’s leader President Zelensky, but appears to respect Putin.

So much so that he accepts Putin’s misinformation about the inevitable annihilation of the Ukrainian force in Kursk. A Russian ‘win’ that reinforces Trump’s feelings and generates situations like the President’s recent social media post asking Putin to be merciful to the Ukrainian soldiers trapped in the Kursk Salient. The President’s post including the following statement “I have strongly requested to President Putin that their lives be spared. This would be a horrible massacre, one not seen since World War II.”

A post that Putin immediately leveraged by telling his Security Council, that he has considered the US president’s request and that if Ukraine orders them to surrender, he will spare their lives. A carefully contrived statement designed specifically to demonstrate that Putin is Trump’s equal, or even his superior. After all it is America’s president asking for mercy, and Russia’s magnanimously offering it.

The battle for the Kursk Salient is noteworthy and will probably define developments over the next couple of weeks. Russia is unlikely to negotiate before this battle is resolved, and if Ukraine can prolong the battle, it would force Putin to procrastinate and possibly annoy Trump enough to act against Russia. However, reports from the frontline indicate that Russia has the initiative and that Ukraine is pressed to withdraw in good order, let alone stage a counter-attack.

Next week, expect to see more Russian pressure on the Kursk Salient, as Putin seeks to engage directly with Trump. Russia’s leader demonstrating his version of ‘the art of the deal,’ using misinformation and a Ukrainian withdrawal from Kursk to bluff his American counterpart into a ceasefire on his terms. Meanwhile, around the world people that support democracy, and that oppose it will be watching closely.

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack