Ben Morgan – Autumn rain and cold weather arrive in Ukraine – What now?
The rain has started in Ukraine. The famous rasputitsa, or mud season during which a combination of heavy rain and increasing cold slows down military operations. The rasputitsa is a natural milestone for any campaign in this part of the world. Ukraine is largely flat and bisected by large rivers, so the rain turns many places into muddy bogs and limits vehicle movement to formed roads. It is a hard season to fight in, soldiers are uncomfortable and supporting them logistically is almost impossible. If an operation is not finished when the rain starts, nature forces it to stop during autumn. So, what can we expect to see in Ukraine in the coming weeks and months?
Realistically, this natural event signals culmination of Ukraine’s 2023 offensive. Activity will continue along the frontline at places like Bakhmut, Avdiivka, the Orikhiv Axis or the Dnipro River Crossing. However, expect the land campaign to slow down and stagnate. Infantry can still move and artillery will continue to batter enemy positions but do not expect armoured operations or large manoeuvres until next year.
The cross-country mobility that tanks and other armoured vehicles provide is now largely redundant as any vehicle moving off road risks bogging down as Ukraine’s fertile soil soaks up the rain. Supplying the frontlines becomes harder as positions further from roads start to rely on food, water and ammunition being carried in by soldiers. Artillery units can no longer roam freely across country and will be fixed to roads and areas of well-drained hard standing (drained, concrete or gravel areas).
Essentially, nature is calling a ‘time out’ providing both sides with an opportunity to re-organise, re-supply and plan their next move. The impact on the land campaign will be different in each of the key areas and below is my assessment of the new situation.
The Dnipro River Crossing
The impact of the change in weather on this operation is that Ukraine no longer has the opportunity to catch Russia off guard. The bad weather is unlikely to stop tough Ukrainian marines expanding their bridgehead, particularly in the urban areas they are currently targeting. However, it will stop a sudden Ukrainian exploitation of the bridgehead. Even if Ukraine’s tanks and armoured vehicles can cross the river, ground conditions on the east bank rule out rapid advances.
Longer term, Russian troops now have time to dig in a cordon around the crossing. It will be outside Ukrainian artillery range and initially will be relatively ad hoc as bringing heavy equipment forwards will be difficult. The rainy season provides time for planning and for brigading engineering resources so when the ground freezes heavier more developed defensive positions can be rapidly built. The question is – Can Ukraine take advantage of the small window between the ground freezing and Russia creating a tough defensive scheme? This week Ukraine is using long-range weapons to attack Russian logistics hubs sitting behind the river’s defenders. Actions probably aimed at making it harder to bring forward or concentrate defensive stores, ammunition and plant equipment thereby slowing down development of new defences.
The Orikhiv Axis
The Orikhiv salient is now a difficult and dangerous piece of ground for Ukraine to hold. The chances of a break out during the mud season are minimal. If the operation was taking place in isolation Ukraine would probably withdraw. The salient is now centred on Robotyne and Russia still holds Verbove, situated on higher ground to the east flank. Based on Russia’s offensive capability, it is unlikely that they will be able to physically push the Ukrainian’s out of the salient but holding it will be tough. Any Ukrainian soldiers in the salient can be engaged by Russian artillery firing from three sides into their positions.
However, this battle is not fought in isolation and holding this ground is important because it fixes some of Russia’s best soldiers in place, preventing them being deployed against the Dnipro River crossing, Avdiiivka or in Bakhmut.
Avdiivka
Russia continues to remain focussed on Avdiivka and last week increased the intensity of its operations in this area. On 24 November, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian Colonel, Oleksandr Shtupun said that “Russian forces launched a “third wave” of assaults as part of the Russia offensive operation in the Avdiivka direction, and Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun stated that this “third wave” began on November 22. Shtupun reported a 25 to 30 percent increase in Russian ground attacks near Avdiivka on November 22 and stated that Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian columns of roughly a dozen armored vehicles in total during assaults. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled at least 50 Russian assaults in the Avdiivka direction on November 23 and 24.” Clear evidence of Russia’s interest in this area.
Russia benefits from capturing this town because it pushes Ukrainian artillery out of range of Donetsk City and shortens the frontline making it easier to defend. Attacks on Avdiivka are likely to continue regardless of the weather because capturing this town is important to Russia’s wider strategic plan, something we will discuss in more detail later.
Bakhmut
This area remains heavily contested, both sides attacking and counter-attacking throughout last week. Being an urban area with plenty of hard standing it seems unlikely that we will see a significant decrease in the intensity of combat. Both sides want to hold the town and are invested in this battle. My assessment is that fighting will slow down around Bakhmut but is unlikely to stop.
An overall assessment
Approaching the war’s second winter, we can see some trends in the campaign. Ukraine’s offensive culminating is not a defeat. The campaign did not achieve its objectives but Russia has not destroyed Ukraine’s combat power or limited their ability to develop new operations. Instead, we should see culmination as a natural part of any campaign’s tempo, there are periods of high activity and there are times to regroup and get ready for a new phase. Looking at Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) Ukraine does not appear to have suffered crippling losses. However, its best units are probably tired and need to be replenished, receive reinforcements and rest. Autumnn’s bad weather provides that opportunity.
On the other side, Russia’s forces have performed better than expected holding their cohesion and defending strongly. Further, it seems that Russia’s forces have settled confidently into defence along the front line. We are seeing consistent aggressive patrolling and rotation of units into and out of forward positions, both indicators of an effective and confident defence. Additionally, the response to Ukraine’s crossing of the Dnipro River seems to be careful and considered. Russian airpower and artillery are not working effectively in the area, unable to destroy the bridgehead and Russia’s plan appears to be cordoning the bridgehead.
At this stage, Russia is in a strong position, its defences have been tested and have stopped Ukraine’s offensive. It knows that it can hold Luhansk, Donetsk and the coastal parts of Zaporizhia and Kherson that form a land bridge to Crimea. In fact, it appears to be managing long-term defence confidently and successfully. Russia has proven that it has enough soldiers ‘in country’ to hold the current frontline. On the other hand, Russia is offensively spent. Its stocks of material are terribly depleted and it is running out of tanks, armoured vehicles, trucks and pretty much everything else except artillery ammunition and drones supplied by Iran and North Korea. A mass mobilisation and switching to a war economy may be able to change this situation given time but these steps appear to be politically unacceptable.
One of Putin’s key objectives is to hold Crimea, he took it in 2014. Currently, Russia has secured guaranteed access to the peninsular using either the Kerch Bridge or the new Crimean land bridge. He is unlikely to take a significant risk at this point and upset this situation. An election is looming and although Russia is hardly democratic, the event creates uncertainty because it provides a ‘veil of legitimacy’ for anyone moving against Putin. Instead, providing Putin is confident the defence will hold, it is better to limit his objectives, resist the urge to mobilise further and think of the ‘long game.’ Last week, Putin publicly discussed the tragedy of the war and the need for it to stop. Perhaps opening a pathway to negotiation; and if the war stopped tomorrow Putin holds enough to claim a win.
Therefore, my assessment is that Russia will use the autumn to consolidate, it will not mobilise additional forces, instead its focus will be ‘holding what it has with what it’s got.’ A focus that makes it unlikely that Russia will launch an offensive this winter after the ground freezes or in the summer of 2024.
What comes next? A longer-term assessment
Ukraine’s objective is to push Russia out of its territory occupied since 2014; Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea and the Crimean land bridge. The best opportunity to achieve this goal using manoeuvre rather than attrition has passed. Now Ukraine needs to reduce Russia’s combat power to a point at which it can manoeuvre again, capture large areas of territory and force withdrawal rather than trying to destroy Russian forces. Realistically, there is a brief window between now and Russia’s new government being elected in March 2024. After the election Putin will have a time to mobilise both industry and manpower and over time Russia will be able to generate enough combat power to return to offensive operations. If this happens Ukraine will be forced onto the defensive and it chances of regaining territory reduce.
Additionally, in a war of attrition Ukraine is completely reliant on its supporters for the material (weapons, equipment and ammunition) required to batter Russia into submission. Unfortunately, to date Ukraine’s European allies are generally slow providing material support and have failed to deliver the 1 million artillery rounds promise. The US has poured support into Ukraine but now faces domestic political pressure to slow down. A war of attrition advantages Russia because even though its economy is only about the size of Australia’s it is still bigger than Ukraine’s and its population is much larger.
So, I expect Ukraine to try and keep the pressure on Russia by holding their forces in place near Orikhiv, Avdiivka and at Bakhmut while trying to develop the Dnipro bridgehead. This operation is likely to be characterised by long-range attacks against Russia’s supply network, reinforcements and command centres. Aiming to stop Russia developing a secure cordon, Ukraine is trying to make sure that when the ground is passable, they can move before Russia’s defence becomes too strong.
In summary, the Dnipro bridgehead is Ukraine’s best opportunity to turn Russia’s flank and return to a war of mobility in which Russian numbers can be offset by good tactics, motivation and leadership. The onset of rainy, cold weather will slow the war down but it is far from over and I recommend keeping a close eye on Ukraine’s Dnipro bridgehead. Ukraine will not move immediately but will continue to develop the bridgehead and, if it has the capacity, will probably time its next push for late-February. Synchronising its operation with the ground freezing and Russia’s elections.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger
Ben Morgan writes; “….rain and cold weather arrive in Ukraine – What now?”
With our support for the genocidal aerial bombardment of Gaza, resulting in the almost total destruction of Gaza city and its infrastructure, including hospitals and schools, we have given Putin permission to do the same to Kyiv this winter.
That’s what’s now.
Stupid answer Pat. Putin had the means to implement ” A genocidal aerial Bombardment” at the start of the SMO but yet didn’t.
Ben and yourself has a basic misunderstanding of Russian warfare, Russia doesn’t carpet bomb like the West or Israel that’s a purely western tactic. The West even has quaint names for it “Shock and awe, wake and bake, land of the free, home of the brave” what a fcuking oxymoron the West is.
Russian translations:
Shock and awe: Hit and run because we are chickenshit.
Wake and bake: See above.
Land of the free: Yeah bestiality is legal in 13 states, FREEDOM!
Home of the Brave:Only if you are referring to Native Americans
fingrinn:
translation – Sock Puppet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sock_puppet_account#/media/File:Sock_puppet_and_keyboard.jpg
Did it ever enter your potato sized brain that i wish to remain anonymous to protect a vulnerable family member?
Of course i could use my real name which would result in a internet search exposing my Disabled child and her abuse by the State to hateful people like yourself.
I remember well her being 5 years old being labeled a “Fucking retard” by some kid.
That doesn’t make me a “Sock puppet” but simply a cautious person.
Tools like yourself who label me as a Putinist, troll, Kremlin talking points and any other slur designed to stifle debate is more on reflection on your lack of critical thinking or debating skills than myself.
You’re the perfect example of why Unions are a thing of the past, you cant listen, be respectful of other opinions and certainly cant debate. Prove me wrong Pat. put forward a counter argument in a respectful way.
No, Israel has been leading the charge pushing the borders on what the wEst finds acceptable, and therefore can deliver to Iraq, Serbia, afghanistan, since it’s inception.
You’ll note no such “shake and bake” action from Russia like that in any of its military operations in Georgia, Syria, or Ukraine – just a lot of Western papier mache propaganda professing the inverse. And hopefully noting the case you’ll start to open your mind to Russia’s post Soviet role in the world, and why we get fed so much Russophobic BS wrapped around the facts.
No saints or saviours, but compared to the Civilised West…?
Like the Zionists, Putin underestimated the resistance. That was his fatal mistake.
Like the Zionists Putin turns to aerial genocide as his last resort.
You stupid trolls need to keep up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzSlUc4aOus&t=1s
And this is just the beginning.
Pretty much like Ben, our resident Kremlin trolls suffer from a blind spot. Only from the other side of the looking glass. Both lot need to lift their game.
Pat, it’s now public that the contents of the rejected agreement between Ukraine and Russia were:
* respect Minsk agreement and federalise Donbass as part of Ukraine.
* cast iron non NATO guarantee.
Rejected by Z at behest of Johnson, on behalf of Washington and Berlin.
Are you some kind of neocon troll? Are the above facts too inconvenient to your narrative?
“Are you some kind of neocon troll?” Nick J
No I am a real person. Unlike you, who repeats on rotation the Kremlin’s farcical recommended bulletin points of the day handed to you by your troll farm supervisor.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Russian web brigades,[a] also called Russian trolls, Russian bots, Kremlinbots, Kremlin trolls, or Rustapar, are state-sponsored anonymous Internet political commentators and trolls linked to the Government of Russia.[1][2] Participants report that they are organized into teams and groups of commentators that participate in Russian and international political blogs and Internet forums using sockpuppets, social bots and large-scale orchestrated trolling and disinformation campaigns to promote pro-Vladimir Putin and pro-Russian propaganda.[1][3][4][5][6]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_web_brigades#:~:text=Russian%20web%20brigades%2C%20also%20called,to%20the%20Government%20of%20Russia.
Beep beep, whir whir, bot bot, hello Pat.
Many a true
word
Said in Jest
Shakespeare
Note:
Nick
Doesn’t
deny
being a
Bot
Here’s the Bards words that are appropriate to Pats nonsense. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
Russia benefits from capturing this town (Avdiivka) because it pushes Ukrainian artillery out of range of Donetsk City
Correct Ben, let’s restate this correctly.
The civilians in Donetsk benefit from Russia capturing this town because it pushes Ukrainian artillery
that has been bombarding them indescriminately since 2014 out of range of Donetsk City.
“…The civilians in Donetsk benefit from Russia capturing this town because it pushes Ukrainian artillery that has been bombarding them indescriminately since 2014 out of range of Donetsk City.” Nick J
Nobody believes your farcical claims anymore.
With all the resources afforded to a Kremlin troll , and you still can’t provide any links to evidence to back up your claims?
What’s wrong with you?
As I keep saying, you pro-war trolls, really need to lift your game. Otherwise even the useful idiots that naively swallow your Kremlin narrative wholesale, will start to question your pro-war bullshit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
Do you really think that any sane person would rely upon Wiki or the other links you proffer Pat?
Thanks Ben
One point you forgot: Ukraine will continue to deny Russia effective occupancy of Crimea by attacking military installations and ships there.
If the USA doesn’t give them longer range missiles, they’ll produce their own – it’s not rocket science (oh wait! It is! But it’s 1940 rocket science.)
US pledges $100B in arms! F16’s! Tanks! Cruise missiles! Zelenksy is pushing Russia back to Moscow! Zelensky has a grand strategy! Spring Offensive! Russian demise is imminent! Russia is about to unconditionally surrender! Putin has cancer! Putin has Parkinson’s! Putin is about to die! Oh wait.
Surely you jest? you sound like Ovod.
This is an accurate summary of this years TDB entries wrt to Ukraine.
Yes, I think the Daily Blog Ukraine psyops splurge is “culminating”.
Putin is into 650 something days of his 7 days conquest of Ukraine.
I wouldn’t like to have him managing my business.
There’s still quite a lot of tension along the front. The winter season will not devolve into a sitzkrieg without the risk of local breakthroughs as forces adjust.
Russia will probably resume its strikes on electrical infrastructure – but Ukraine has offered to reply tit-for-tat to their strikes, with the destruction of oil infrastructure.
This story is by no means over.
Random events under reported this week in our media….
Polish truckers and farmers are blockading the Ukraine border protesting EU diktats allowing Ukraine to undercut their businesses. Military supplies, food and fuel significantly delayed.
Ukrainian TV reports total casualties since SMO at 1.2 million. Meanwhile MediaZone, a BBC collaboration reports Russian verifiable KIAs at 35,000.
Ukraine is extending the draft to 16 to 70 year olds, male and female. Dead Ukrainian women in uniform have been found on front line.
Deputy head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense, MP Mariana Bezuglaya stated Zhaluzhnyi has no plan for next year. He stated he needs 20,000 recruits per month, indicating his huge casualty levels. There is dissension at the top.
A huge snow storm with 100km plus winds blanketed Ukraine and cut power to large areas. Meanwhile Russian rockets have begun taking out the grid as happened last winter. The Rasputitsa is ending, with snow the ground is freezing.
Make of that what you will, draw your own conclusions.
A huge snow storm with 100km plus winds blanketed Ukraine and cut power to large areas. Meanwhile Russian rockets have begun taking out the grid as happened last winter. The Rasputitsa is ending, with snow the ground is freezing.
Make of that what you will, draw your own conclusions.” Nick J
You sick bastard
My conclusion; The Russian imperialists are taking a page out of the Zionists handbook on how to commit genocide.
The difference being, rather than killing Ukrainians with heat and thirst, like the Zionists are doing to the Palestinians, Russia intends to freeze the Ukrainian population to death.
Feeling better Pat? You cretin.
Much
I don’t mind making an example of you.
We need to take the gloves off with pro-war trolls.
And put them in their place.
Doubling down in stupid, are you Pat?
Is it the real Pat O’Dea? or just some Ukrainian troll pretending? Surely the real one cant be so stupid.
A fake identity Kremlin troll accusing me of being a Ukrainian troll?
WTF?
Pat, you look more stupid by the second. Or maybe schizoid. On one hand you rightly defend Palestinian civilians from Israeli bombardment, on the other you refuse to even see Donetsk civilians bombarded by Ukrainians. Double standards Pat. Nasty with it.
“……you refuse to even see Donetsk civilians bombarded by Ukrainians. Nick J
Because you have never provided any proofs or links or photographic or video evidence to back up this. While discounting any source that disagrees with you.
“…Do you really think that any sane person would rely upon Wiki or the other links you proffer Pat?” Nick J
And then there is this;
“…Russian rockets have begun taking out the grid as happened last winter Nick J
The destruction of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure to freeze Ukrainian civilians to death. is a war crime.
https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/03/war-crimes-indiscriminate-attacks-infrastructure-systematic-and-widespread
But you knew that.
GENEVA/ VIENNA (16 March 2023) – Russian authorities have committed a wide range of violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law in various regions of Ukraine, many of which amount to war crimes, the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine said in a new report Thursday.
The war crimes include attacks on civilians and energy-related infrastructure,…..
You truly are a sick bastard
Hypocrisy much? The only side that interests you is the Ukrainian side and being an apologist. Posters have given numerous examples previously of their arguments but you continuously prefer to be blind and refuse to see.
International committee of the red cross, Amnesty international ring a bell?
Apparently Pats opinion from 1000s of KM away is more valid that actual Western backed reports.
Here’s a clue Pat, War crimes, rape, torture, dismemberment, all in your precious Western reports pre SMO.
Still no links?
No Proofs?
No witness testimony to camera?
Just the word of some anonymous pro-war sock-puppet?
Which posters?
Where?
You are a lying blood thirsty shit, Just in this thread you have gloried in the destruction of civilian infrastructure in a freezing Northern winter.
A war crime as you know.
You disgusting piece of pro-war filth.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/11/27/ben-morgan-autumn-rain-and-cold-weather-arrive-in-ukraine-what-now/#comment-798521
.
You are a lazy troll Pat. Don’t look, don’t see, don’t care. Low grade, truly squalid.
No, it’s more subtle Ted. I’m anti neo Nazis, I’m anti US neocon imperialism. Most I’m anti the fakery, the falsification and crap apologists for this war make.
On another note why would you name yourself after an extremely useless PM?
“I’m anti the fakery” Nick J
More like the king of quackery
Our readers are left wondering why YOU HAVEN’T posted any citations to your repeated claims of atrocities committed by Ukraine in the Donbas!
Or why your Kremlin handlers also spent over 8 hours, EIGHT HOURS, at the United Nations International Court of Justice, arguing up hill and down dale that Russia, SHOULDN’T HAVE TO present evidence of the atrocities they alleged were committed by Ukraine in the Donbas that the Kremlin used as the excuse to attack Ukraine.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/10/08/guest-blog-patrick-odea-ukraine-takes-itself-to-court/
You and your handlers continually argue that you shouldn’t have to present evidence for the reason Russia attacked Ukraine.
All we get from you is an endless runny stream of pro-war bullshit without substance, repeated as if it were fact.
“Here’s a clue Pat, War crimes, rape, torture, dismemberment, all in your precious Western reports pre SMO.” Nick j
You are a very sick puppy Pat.
Pat, your link to your pathetic post…. I never commented on that post yet there you are “quoting” me. WTF?
Maybe there’s no more for Ben to say. Russia has won, they will have the last word.
After 2014 the number of western corporations buying up Ukrainian assets?went ballistic
The Imf loans came with demands for Ukraine to lie down and open wide.
Laws had to be changed,so that
Ukraine could sell to foreign corporations ( as in Monsanto scoring hugely and bringing in GMos to plunder the bread basket of Europe)
Pat doesn’t call this out as imperialism , but that exactly what it is with the Ukrainian elites skimming off the profits and fuck the working class Ukrainians