Auckland Mayoralty Update: Efeso vs Wayne vs Viv vs Lord
I moderated the Auckland University Students Association Mayoralty 2022 Debate this year and it was interesting watching the candidates up close.
In my opinion the race is between 4 candidates, Efeso Collins, Wayne Brown, Viv Beck and Craig Lord.
Here are my thoughts on the Candidates.
Viv Beck:
Strengths – She has the institutional Auckland Right backing her because they don’t think they can control Wayne Brown as easily as they can control her. This CnR backing has given her access to more money after Leo left the race and she has been able to buy in Leo’s social media team.
Weakness – She can’t win. Of all 4 contenders, she is the only one you can definitely rule out winning. She isn’t a strong enough candidate to eclipse Wayne and Efeso but she can gain revenue to keep her campaign going while hindering Wayne’s chance to win.
Wayne Brown:
Strengths – The ultimate technocrat. He has the skill set to run unwieldily Auckland Council and has the intellectual grunt to see big projects through, he’s also the wealthiest individual running and has deep deep pockets.
Weakness – His performance live is dreadful and his social media campaign utterly underwhelming. He’s doing a Bloomberg by dropping a fortune on ZB advertising and thinks that will be enough to win.
Efeso Collins:
Strengths – His ability to perform is unequaled in these debates. He has a calm dignity and genuine mana, he has a vision for Auckland that is inclusive and he has a huge appeal across the entire community.
Weakness – Efeso’s main problems are that his base are notoriously apathetic and face structural issues that make it far more likely for them not to vote, on top of this has been a lacklustre support from Labour and the Greens to provide the on the ground muscle to win this.
Craig Lord:
Strengths – Of all the candidates, Craig is most like Leo, and if Craig could appeal to Leo’s supporters, he could be the dark horse here. Leo’s supporters backed Leo because he spoke their language, those voters won’t bother voting ion Leo isn’t running, but they could be convinced to give that protest vote to Craig.
Weakness – He’s Craig Lord.
Deciding event:
The vast majority of Aucklanders have neo idea who to vote for, but I think once they see the perforce on the TV Debates, they will make their decision based on that.
Predictions:
Efeso is such a star performer in the debates and once people see how very weak the other candidates are, it will seal the election for Efeso.
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It really comes down to Brown or Collins, the other two are fluff.
Brown had the social presence of a barbed wire enema. Collins comes across as resentful and bitter, especially for anything north of Otahuhu.
What a desert!
And so the gentle drift toward the American style of local body candidacy, money and lots of it, continues…
A farewell to true democracy.
Be interesting to see whether standing for Labour in Auckland will be a help or hindrance. I dont live in Auckland so dont know whether people are discussing political affiliations as relevant or whether it is primarily candidate driven.. If people arent voting along party lines, then Efeso has the personality to win.
Efeso wont win he is already chucking a sook at voters. Sorry, i know you like him.
Apathy and alienation will likely be the winner on the day. So even on a high 30% turnout it was always going to be a minority Mayor in real terms.
There are lots of ifs…if, somehow Efeso can generate multi racial turnout in South and West Auckland and white middle class pockets in central, he will win. The names are on the voting papers now, so effectively no more pullouts.
The worry is tory property owners will diligently post in their ballots, while transient renters have more obstacles to voting. Postal infrastructure is in a dire state except for online shopping courier delivery. The Collins campaign needs to actively organise voting and post ins to have an even chance.