AI and the loss of 300million jobs
AI ‘godfather’ Geoffrey Hinton warns of dangers as he quits Google
A man widely seen as the godfather of artificial intelligence (AI) has quit his job, warning about the growing dangers from developments in the field.
Geoffrey Hinton, aged 75, announced his resignation from Google in a statement to the New York Times, saying he now regretted his work.
And in a BBC interview on Monday, he said: “I can now just speak freely about what I think the dangers might be.
“And some of them are quite scary.”
Dr Hinton’s pioneering research on deep learning and neural networks has paved the way for current AI systems like ChatGPT.
But the British-Canadian cognitive psychologist and computer scientist told the BBC the chatbot could soon overtake the level of information that a human brain holds.
“Right now, what we’re seeing is things like GPT-4 eclipses a person in the amount of general knowledge it has and it eclipses them by a long way. In terms of reasoning, it’s not as good, but it does already do simple reasoning.
“And given the rate of progress, we expect things to get better quite fast. So we need to worry about that. Right now, they’re not more intelligent than us, as far as I can tell. But I think they soon may be.”
The impact of AI Chat is barely being comprehended but its effects will see one of the largest displacements of jobs in the history of Civilisation.
This is knitters vs loom level stuff.
Predictions are 300 million job losses…
300 million jobs could be affected by latest wave of AI, says Goldman Sachs
As many as 300 million full-time jobs around the world could be automated in some way by the newest wave of artificial intelligence that has spawned platforms like ChatGPT, according to Goldman Sachs economists.
They predicted in a report Sunday that 18% of work globally could be computerized, with the effects felt more deeply in advanced economies than emerging markets.
That’s partly because white-collar workers are seen to be more at risk than manual laborers. Administrative workers and lawyers are expected to be most affected, the economists said, compared to the “little effect” seen on physically demanding or outdoor occupations, such as construction and repair work.
In the United States and Europe, approximately two-thirds of current jobs “are exposed to some degree of AI automation,” and up to a quarter of all work could be done by AI completely, the bank estimates.
If generative artificial intelligence “delivers on its promised capabilities, the labor market could face significant disruption,” the economists wrote. The term refers to the technology behind ChatGPT, the chatbot sensation that has taken the world by storm.
…the impact of 300million job losses in the Advanced Economies of the World is going to cause carnage, but the deeper threat of AI will remain and grow with each passing day.
It will occur before AI reaches self-awareness.
The rise of AI art will kill the human artist and extinguished the human experience of being human for a replicated AI version.
When the camera was invented, artists who produced real life art were no longer required, and the human experience in vision and emotion sparked new ways of doing art, but AI strips that all away and removes the human experience from art altogether.
We have always viewed AI as the rise of intelligence within the artificial, but what if it has a more symbiotic relationship with its host?
What happens to human beings when our art and dreams are created by AI?
Who starts to influence who?
Who is dreaming and who is the dreamer?
Technology will continue to provide a lifestyle for the Billionaire elite that makes them DemiGods as Capitalism mutates into mere parasitic survival plutocracy on a burning planet.
I don’t think we are appreciating the tsunami caused by the AI Chatbots earthquake this year.
It’s beyond students cheating.
The AI Chatbots will be able to discover the smartest and fastest ways to doing things from the nano level to new computer code to new disease fighting to new types of material to new ways of doing everything.
That’s the immediate technological impact.
The cultural impact will be far more enormous.
A journalist might be able to interview a dozen people for a story, AI Chatbots can talk to hundreds of thousands all at the same time.
We are moving from artisan to mass production again.
Once human artisans in every field would build things, mass production destroyed those skills sets and made the product with none of the human process.
The only hope to counter global warming are AI machines that can do miraculous things at atomic levels, the next generation of quantum computing and AI could become gods in essential machines…
DeepMind scientists say they trained an A.I. to control a nuclear fusion reactor
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- The London-based AI lab, which is owned by Alphabet, announced Wednesday that it has trained an AI system to control and sculpt a superheated plasma inside a nuclear fusion reactor.
- Nuclear fusion, a process that powers the stars of the universe, involves smashing and fusing hydrogen, which is a common element of seawater.
- DeepMind claimed that the breakthrough, published in the journal Nature, could open new avenues that advance nuclear fusion research.
…the rise of AI though would lead quickly to Super Intelligence...
We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. — Vernor Vinge
…and then after the massive economic, cultural and political implications of AI we arrive at what happens when we finally get AI?
Will it be benign?
Will it be aggressive and hostile.
If it has generated consciousness through the millions and millions of human data points will it emerge from our best angels or worst demons?
We are at a stage of biological power atet we are all;e to build machines greater than us.
What will the Human Species birth?
An angry God or a Loving God?
What happens if there are two seperate AI consciences? Satan Inc is challenged by God Inc over Intellectual Property Right infringement on coding and is cast from the Heaven Cloud into the Dark Web.
What Gods are we birthing with AI?
The best of us or the worst of us?
Don’t worry, the NZ Government is monitoring it…
…you want to see something truly terrifying as we embrace this age of hyper reality and industrial complex AI?
Check this out…
…we are so fucked.
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Such a shame if we should lose all those lawyers and policy wonks. Unfortunately we may not be so lucky.
In case you didn’t notice computing requires vast amounts of energy. Energy as we produce it today is becoming scarcer. Question is, if it’s a choice between fueling the tractor to produce grain, or powering AI which way will we jump?
PS don’t give me the renewables or cold fusion story, I’m calling them out as the fantasy they are.
Martyn, it won’t be an angry god or a loving god, it will be a greedy, selfish, narcistic sociopath, interested in only making money.
Interesting points Martyn! Who knows how this will work out?
I see several aspects, some positive and some less so.
Firstly, just as you implied, ever since the Luddites smashed textile machines there have been those who were worried about automation, yet as industrialization progressed this never happened. Instead, society steadily became more productive, and standards of living rose because of that, all while there was never a lack of gainful employment for those seeking it.
Much of the world is on the cusp of a demographic collapse. The current rise in global population is due entirely to longer lifespans thanks to modern healthcare but hidden inside the data is a worrying low fertility rate that is already impacting many countries including Japan, China and all of Europe. The ratio of those retired to those of working age is rapidly going out of kilter leading to economic ruin and deflation unless something is done. Maybe AI can help fill the productivity gap created by the millions of children that weren’t born since the invention of reliable contraception?
For sure, a lot of professions will almost vanish. I recall a few years ago an earlier incarnation of AI was able to automate about 70% of legal work, which is searching for precedents in legal archives. So, I wouldn’t recommend your sons and daughters go into the law. Similarly, accountancy would seem to be under threat, because it won’t take long for Chat GPT to understand our tax codes in great details and thus be able to prepare company accounts to perfection. The same can be said for journalism and most of the ‘wordy’ subjects in universities because AI is great at scanning around the interweb and assembling a paper that parrots the prevailing opinion on any particular subject. Just as you say, the future for humans is in the trades because a robot cannot fix my plumbing rewire my house, or service my car. Yet.
For over a decade the USA has had robotic aircraft that can outperform humans because of their ability to perform high G turns that would otherwise crush a human being. These robots aren’t radio controlled, they’re autonomous: Given an overall objective, they’re capable of carrying out a mission better than many humans, all without the risk loss of a pilot. If there ever is a WW3, the robots will dominate the sky. Where it gets tricky is in strategic command. Using an AI system to manage a battlefield would provide an advantage, but at what point does it decide to initiate a war because it thinks it can win with a preemptive nuclear strike? You’d want someone stationed next to the off switch, just in case! LOL
“Firstly, just as you implied, ever since the Luddites smashed textile machines there have been those who were worried about automation, yet as industrialization progressed this never happened.”
I will argue that the chief purpose of automation, and so forth, is to reduce the greatest cost to business which is labour. Now, I do not know what the focus was back in the Luddite era, but now days, getting rid of costs/jobs drives this new mechanized era. As such, we should be worried because growing, unproductive masses may soon become burdensome, rowdy worries for the captains of industry, and then what….
Misinformation, disinformation, wokeness….it is all designed to help neutralize the push-back of us “fucked people” against ruling class funded initiatives like the above…and more.
Thankfully, we are not royally fucked yet because we can still push back. But we better connect the dots in significant enough numbers (globally) soon, because as the Doc above hints at…we are running out of time. We are in a class war – time to wake up.
Factories here employed lots of people, eg Crown Lynn, Holeproof. Intergenerational employment.
We got rid of those to make millions from Bangladeshi and Chinese labour.
The generations which would’ve been employed went ramraiding. Next step;
When billions are relegated to buying everything AI manufactured, from AI warehouses, where is the money going to come from to purchase with?
I guess the middle class white collared workers who have lost their jobs will have to learn how to ram raid
Through out history there have been advances in technology which raised the fear of mass job lost but the vacuum has been filled by other types of jobs replacingthose lost . It is estimated in 15 years we will need 15 million more health workers we will have a need for more teachers .2 examples .
AI seems like science and technology generally–the main problem is ownership and control. Technology and science has long had a certain independent life of its own regardless of what humans might think.
The internet was quickly dominated and monetised by corporates. Imagine social media in public ownership, being able to just enjoy relating to other humans without being drilled by divisive algorithms. Internet access should be free to all, the digital divide as COVID showed with home working, and online education, was just another reinforcement of neo liberal inequity.
So with capital and finance capital in control of the development of AI it could indeed rapidly turn into the final shitstorm.
The funny old thing is of course–another 300 mill on the scrapheap–how are people going to be good compliant consumers…if they are fucking broke,struggling, with no purchasing power, hmmmm…? I look forward to some of our tory friends answering that one.
I’ve got to do something in my own awkward human way but before I go I give you a good video on AI from Sabine Hossenfelder who is a clear speaker with good info. Good to support and follow?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKx0XwJAj3k
Artificial Intelligence: What’s next?
Learn more about neural nets (and many others topics in math and science) on Brilliant using the link https://brilliant.org/sabine. You can get started for free, and the first 200 will get 20% off the annual premium subscription. Show more …
If you want to section the information offered pressing show more will show you how and give useful info. for those with minds able to encompass this stuff. Frankly it scares me.
I remember Aldous Huxley said in a letter to George Orwell that our drive for efficiency will be our ruin not communistic tendencies as in the book 1984. Isn’t that a magic date for us! Coincidence?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sword_of_the_Spirits
I’ll mention too John Christopher’s trilogy about a young leader wanting to move forward using science and new ways and facing resistance. It’s for young adults but not childish – some very thoughtful books about developing society and individuals are coming at this level. Everyone should make a habit of reading the printed word on a book artifact, using cash money for payment when possible every day, using a pencil to make notes on paper etc as part of being free. You won’t know what freedom is till you reach for it and find it gone. That’s a great quote-to-be from me!
Problem with AI is that it can only gather and restructure information from public online sources. Yes it is good at that but AI has no self correcting intelligence (Black is White) nor the ability to think up new ideas (think Xero as a start up) not predict that, when used as a self drive function, that the car ahead in their lane and indicating left is either turning or parked.
More and more information will be stored offline and out of reach of AI. Problem for AI will be distinguishing between fact and fiction. Especially when AI self feeds itself information from other AI bots.
Graphic and written design is most at risk but whole new communities will sprout up that are offline.
Long way to go before AI can engineer a building or bridge, get engineering approval, get funding, get Insurance cover and get the public to trust it.
Have tried some of the computer code and it is about 40% right. With learning it will get better PROVIDED code is placed in the public arena for AI to learn from.
Coders are now working more offline to protect that workings. AI can as yet not delve into the code used to present Microsoft Office to the consumer. Microsoft will protect that code till the death.
One could say that Dennis Potter foresaw much of our dilemma, suffered and died with us in mind. Very sad. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Potter
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Television_shows_written_by_Dennis_Potter
Check out the ones he wrote when suffering from terminal pancreatic cancer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karaoke_(TV_series)
and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_Lazarus
‘Drinking My Own Thoughts’ snippet – 2:49
(The head removed with a still active brain, kept artificially alive with neural impulses able to travel out and be converted to images on a screen):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfEgdCu5RSM
The main theme to Dennis Potter’s final work.Daniel Feeld’s head has been thawed from cryo-stasis over 300 years after the events
In the interview “Seeing the Blossom”, Dennis Potter comments that he wrote “Cold Lazarus” and its prequel “Karaoke” based on the simple writer’s premise: “If you wanted to make the world a better place, who would you kill?”
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0115140/
There id definitely a brighy side:
Marketers, advertising “creatives” and similar bulshit professionals soon be free to relieve children digging Cobalt in Congolese “artisan mines”
The CCP Chinese Criminal Party is making full use of AI for the greater good of the world. They are using it with the specific military purpose of defeating the US and the West in a war. Then there will be everlasting peace. Ah yes, one world under Communisim. Just imagine.
Imagine there’s no countries
It isn’t hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion, too
Imagine all the people
Livin’ life in peace under commies
Shu whaapt dee doooo
I heard someone comment on msm recently that historically new technologies are first played out in the theatre of war. Something to look forward to.
https://www.newsdrum.in/national/pti-fact-check-concept-video-of-artificial-womb-facility-taken-out-of-context-shared-as-real-by-social-media-users