A Modest Exercise in Arithmetic.
THE DAILY BLOG’S EDITOR, appears convinced that there exists in New Zealand a great silent majority of Treaty revisionists. He seems to believe that the revolutionary interpretation of Te Tiriti o Waitangi which underpins, ideologically, both the notion of a “Treaty partnership” and “co-governance”, enjoys widespread and enthusiastic support among New Zealand voters – especially those under forty. Interestingly, the numbers presented to us in the latest Roy-Morgan poll point in precisely the opposite direction.
The poll shows National with 32 percent, Act with 13.5 percent, and NZ First with 5 percent support – a total of 50.5 percent. Labour, meanwhile, comes through with 30 percent, the Greens with 12 percent, and the Māori Party with 4.5 percent – a total of 46.5 percent. On the face of it, therefore, the Great Silent Majority lines up with the parties of the Right. If asked whether Māori ceded sovereignty to Queen Victoria on 6 February 1840, these New Zealanders would most likely answer “Yes, they did.” Having said that, their support for the key Treaty revisionist concepts of partnership and co-governance would be … limited.
Well, okay, but the Treaty revisionists could point out, with some justification, that 50.5 percent is hardly a ringing endorsement for the traditional reading of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. With 46.5 percent in support of the Treaty revisionists’ reading, isn’t it more accurate to say that on this matter the electorate is pretty evenly divided?
Not really.
Unlike the Greens, whose membership would, indeed, line up overwhelmingly behind the Treaty revisionists, Labour’s electoral base is more likely to share a view of the Treaty’s meaning that is not wildly at odds with National’s and Act’s. Labour’s working-class voters – Māori as well as Pakeha – are considerably more likely to view the Treaty as the document that made one nation out of two peoples, each of them equal in rights and obligations, than as an enforceable contract binding two cultures together in a relationship “akin to a partnership”.
Surely, this is why Chris Hipkins has been so keen to step back from the brink of what one of this country’s foremost Treaty scholars, Dame Claudia Orange, describes as the “revolutionary changes” unleashed by Treaty revisionists like herself? Any further advance down the partnership/co-governance road and Labour risked seeing its working-class Māori and Pakeha voters peeling away from the party and moving (albeit reluctantly) to the Right.
Which is why, in his post-Cabinet press briefing of Wednesday, 8 February 2023, Hipkins executed a major and politically adroit course alteration which will not only steer Labour away from the Treaty revisionists’ revolutionary rocks, but also deprive National and Act of the angry political breezes that have, of late, been filling their sails.
And it’s not just in relation to the vexed Three Waters project that Hipkins has signalled a significant course-change, he has also unceremoniously thrown overboard Willie Jackson’s proposed public media merger, Grant Robertson’s social insurance scheme, and Kiri Allan’s hate speech legislation. It’s a veritable Night-of-the-Long Knives for the pet projects of Labour’s wokesters.
Announcing a $1.50 increase in the Minimum Wage to $22.70 per hour was the new Labour Leader’s pièce de résistance. Nothing could better signal Labour’s return to its political roots – a movement dedicated to the welfare and uplift of ordinary working-class New Zealanders. For these voters, Hipkins’ turn away from wokeism will have been the “bread” of this afternoon’s announcements, but his announcement of a new $22.70 per hour Minimum Wage was, unquestionably, the butter.
Nor is it likely, that Hipkins’ turning away from Treaty revisionism will cost him all that many votes among New Zealanders under forty. Those who have given themselves, body and soul, to the revolutionary politics of partnership and co-governance are more likely than not to vote either Green of Te Pāti Māori. Rather than angst about the Treaty, younger voters will now be asking themselves: “If Chippy’s willing to raise the Minimum Wage by $1.50 per hour, might he not also be willing to freeze rents and raise the taxes of the wealthy?”
That’s a good question. Because, in terms of political arithmetic, such “bread and butter” moves, precisely because they are so very far from being woke, are bound to subtract even more votes from National and Act, and add them to Labour’s growing electoral tally.
A sum which, after today, looks set re-configure the Great Silent Majority of New Zealand voters in the Left’s favour.
True Hipkins has maybe made a step in the right direction but another exercise in arithmetic might suggest that they’ve wasted 5 1/2 years on the woke nonsense, 6 months isn’t enough to do anything meaningful and cement it in place so it can’t be torn down by the next lot.
A tragic waste of the first absolute majority of the MMP era!
The Great Silent Majority of NZ would have benefited from unemployment insurance. Still able to pay their bills if they get cancer or get made redundant, because employers are too greedy to give them redundancy pay now.
And the RNZ/TVNZ merger would have brought a public service ethos back to to TV1 and TV2. Imagine — a 3 hour panel discussion and debate about co-governance at 7:30pm on Wednesday.
No, the great silent majority would not have benefited from unemployment insurance; they would benefit from a tax-free universal unconditional basic income, a UBI substantially more than TOP proposes.
https://eveningreport.nz/2022/02/10/keith-rankin-analysis-unemployment-insurance/
Would I be correct in assuming there has been a little bit of a spat between the various contributors to TDB in recent times?
Chris – you have you bowalleyroad outlet. You need to understand and be a little more understanding that Martyn is entering his mid-life-crisis phase, and with friends like Damien, there could be a real crisis.
I’m available if needed to come up to Auckland and box your fucking lugholes together if that is the case.
Alternatively, we could seek funding from NuZull on Ear for a new reality television show – Battle of the Lefties
Trust: there is none.
“If Chippy’s willing to raise the Minimum Wage by $1.50 per hour, might he not also be willing to freeze rents and raise the taxes of the wealthy?”
You’re having a laugh. No, he won’t go any where near raising taxes or a rent freeze given how much ground he’s ceded to the right wing narrative. The retreat from contentious but socially progressive policy is a hall mark of the center left. Unable to cut through racism and unwarranted fear, they wilt like weeds in a drought.
If you want to know where this ends take a look at the UK Labour party – bereft of policy, unwilling to support any workers movement and hog-tied to economic austerity and low taxation. But at least they’ve listened to “the majority’ by turning themselves into a harmless place holder for right wing economics.
Presumably we can all breath a sigh of relief as NZ Labour does the same thing in order appease a loud and angry mob. But I guess that is how democracy works if you aren’t able to lead and fight for policies openly.
People are wanting less regulation on the average Joe on what they can say and do, and more regulation on criminal acts and profiteering businesses – especially monopoly and duopoly business!
Less taxes on individuals and more taxes on those earning multi millions of dollars. Windfall taxes on gross profits such as banks, supermarkets, energy and oil companies operating here. In particular those who made a killing during Covid should have to give back tax to the taxpayers!
Instead of a ‘laddish’ approach to crooks like Eric Watson who seems to be admired by many in the NZ media, why doesn’t the government go and get the taxes he never paid or put him in jail. Seriously when owing multiple people/business millions of dollars around the world, but are not in jail you have to wonder, why so some crooks owing a few hundred thousand to IRD go to jail but when its tens of millions in unpaid taxes, you get to keep investing and having lawsuits all around the world for similar unpaid amounts while still raising money on other ventures and bragging to the media!
Unless labeen do a back track on their housing policies that have made everything much worse for everybody – such as now being subject to a bright line test if people are unable to sell their home and have to rent their property out, gold standards for renting that don’t really tally with the amount of renters with major problems such as non payment of rent, drug, alcohol other issues….. not exactly good value for money for taxpayers (taxes paid by under paid nurses, teachers etc) putting these people into motels at double the price of rentals but half the amenity because a 1970’s house can’t have the gold plated insulation into the roofline. (Think Rotorua!)
3 Waters a joke. Seriously, how will more consultation on every little thing with iwi with co goverance is going to speed up, make better and put more money into flood controls, justice and health care in NZ?
He moved there in 2014 and they still haven’t made a ruling!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/one-time-black-power-president-continues-fight-to-remain-on-maori-coastal-land/V2SHP4Q5DZG55LAM7YJDG5PUCY/
Even if there is a ruling then someone goes and appeals the ruling. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/engineer-who-lost-his-cool-and-attacked-pilot-but-police-never-charged-him/6IFG3G2TABDODBWDU2E75HXFSA/
NZ can’t even get one system working as well as it used too. How many years of hell and more money will it take to push in all these dual systems – when it doesn’t seem to be working with what they have done so far with housing for example – disaster after disaster!
Dome Valley environment court case shows how co-governance will really play out.
Chris, I predict that this election could be anybodies. Hippie will manage to win back some support from the base, many others feel burnt by Labour and wont easily forgive them.
As for the young/old split, I suspect that may be subject to change. Older kids now are being taught CRT in schools and universities and if not that, various Woke concepts. Hence their insouciance with the Co Governance stuff. However as with a lot of woke stuff today, it is all sound bites and catch phrases and when (if ever) you get them sat down for a proper discussion, things start to change.
I also found with my own kids that now that they are increasingly having to pay for stuff themselves, they quite ruthlessly favour economic arguments ie: Idealism gives way to practicality
I predict that until co governance is fully and openly debated then that will continue to be a burr beneath the government’s saddle and I also believe that if the Nats go into the election with Luxon they will be unlikely to succeed. Chippie threw down the gauntlet a few weeks ago and what have we got in response? A little more than zip.
The election is anybodys but small parties will stay high until possibly scattering at the the last minute as tactical voting becomes necessary
Chris, you are so good with words and history that I have no doubt you will be able to prove anything you wish in relation to colonisation and land theft. Im sure you could even justify Maori disadvantage. You may even convince yourself that Maori are better off for colonisation deaths and having their land stolen.
But there is an uncomfortable truth that you still need to face daily -Maori culture is all around you and has not been subsumed.
Your choice is to take responsibility and do the right thing or keep talking with forked tongue.
“Backing away” from the concept of co-governance isn’t enough.
For once in their lives Kiwis need to grow a pair, tackle this issue head-on and put it to rest. Run a referendum on this apartheid circus and reform the constitutional to kill it off forever. Then we can move forward as one people.
My ancestors in England fought for a thousand years to rid themselves of the rule of tribes, chiefs and kings. Damned if I’m going to let these ignoramuses wind back the clock.