New Poll highlights how important Greens vote is and why Kākāriki Alliance could be difference
Election 2026: Green Party surge in new poll puts left bloc ahead of coalition
The Green Party has nearly doubled its support in the past two months, according to a new poll which shows that surge would be enough to help the left bloc change the Government if an election were held today.
The latest Talbot Mills poll for Anacta has the Green Party on 13%, up four points from last month and nearly double the 7% the party recorded in April – a relative low point for the party. Talbot Mills also does internal polling for the Labour Party.
That performance was enough for the Greens to just overtake NZ First as the country’s third most popular party. NZ First was on 12%, down 2 points from last month and down from a high of 15% recorded in April.
Labour fell 2 points to 34%, holding its spot as the most popular party. National was steady on 29%, the same result it has recorded for the past three months.
The Act Party was down one point to 6%; although that is just above the 5% threshold needed to enter Parliament, the party is expected to win at least one electorate seat.
Te Pāti Māori polled 2.6%, up from 2.2%.
The Opportunity Party also enjoyed something of a surge, polling 3.3%, up from 2.8% last month and 2.3% in April.
The poll has three left-wing parties on 49%, enough to beat the coalition, which polled 47%.
When you consider their popularity amongst young Māori women (who are an enormous and rising demographic bubble), their low polling made no sense.
I think that what happened was the huge population shift we’ve seen to Australia, many of whom were Green Party demographics and I think the pollsters have had difficulty in replacing that demographic which has led to an under-representation in the polling.
But Polls can and do regain that depth of demographics without having to weight things and I suspect they have sorted their methodologies better with fewer people leaving for Australia.
What the poll shows is how crucial it is for the Greens to retain their third place ranking for two reasons. The first is that it keeps Winston out of power if he can’t leap frog them and the second is that it opens a door to TOP who continue to push closer towards the 5% threshold.
That’s why the Kākāriki Alliance between TPM and Greens is so essential.
Look at that wasted TPM Party vote, if it was recycled to the Greens, that would see the Greens on 15% WHILE creating a huge TPM MMP Overhang!
The moment to gain real wins for progressives isn’t at the election, it’s at the negotiating table AFTER the election.
There is one move left for Te Pati Māori to make in the Election Chess that would be a checkmate for the Left and would set up a Labour/Green/TPM Government that would make the real policy gains that Labour is too incremental to make.
Imagine if TPM actually adopted an MMP strategy for this election?
Labour refuse point blank to consider it and cut their noses off to spite their faces which is ridiculous because if this Hard Right Government with their anti-Māori, anti-Treaty, anti-beneficiary, anti-worker, anti-renter and anti-environment agenda really is as bad as we all claim they are, Labour SHOULD be considering every possible means to beat them, including using MMP.
TPM continue to call out Labour for refusing to do this, so imagine the media attention and left wing voter joy if Te Pati Māori actually walked the talk?
What if Te Pati Māori call a press conference to argue that the need to ensure this is a one term Government is so real that they have done what Labour has refused to do, take the election seriously with an MMP strategy designed to ensure Winston is not Prime Minister for 12 months and this Government becomes a 1 termer.
Imagine if Te Pati Māori were bold enough to push the following:
In the Māori Electorates, Candidate vote Te Pati Māori, Party vote Green!
Right now the Party vote means little to TPM because they will gain more electorates than Party vote, it’s effectively wasted, but if that Māori Party vote was instead recycled to the Greens, it would not only generate an MMP overhang that makes it impossible for the right to get to 51%, it would also pump the Greens up by 2-3%!
So you could get TPM with 4 electorate seats and the Greens with 15%+ Party vote which would be enough to beat the Right.
No Political Party has ever asked for the Party vote to go to another political party as a specific tactic so the media attention at such a unique use of MMP would excite the electorate while demanding mainstream media attention.
The Kākāriki Alliance would see Te Pati Māori and the Greens uniting after the election for a unified negotiating with Labour so that the Greens can’t get played by Labour cutting any deal with NZF and TPM can’t be dumped because they generate an MMP overhang.
It is in the negotiation AFTER the election with Labour using a unified negotiating team of Green and TPM to force the real tax changes and environmental policy we need.
Māori in the Māori Electorates are the most strategic voters in MMP, give them the tools to enact a strategy that could actually beat this terrible right wing Government and they will jump at it.
Candidate vote TPM and Party Vote Green alongside a unified negotiating team post election would be the way to enact the policy our communities are begging for.
The Kākāriki Alliance is the most important for Left wing voters this Election.
Well that’s a different poll to the Taxpayers union poll which gets paid to make the right look good but in the Taxpayers defence no amount on the lipstick on the pig that is this coalition will stop it from the right being smashed come the election. No doubt about it. So they canvas 1000 people in typical National/ACT areas, no doubt. They certainly didn’t ask 1000 people who are unemployed people or those made redundant by this coalition or live in more destitute or poverty-stricken areas.
What about TOP? Surely we still need the People’s Assemblies that they are proposing?
Talbot gets paid to make the left look good and, hopefully, create a self fulfilling prophecy. So they canvas 1000 people in typical labour Green areas, no doubt. They certainly didn’t ask 1000 people who employ people or live in more affluent areas. It’s a polling scam designed to create hype and create cheap headlines. Come the election, the Left will get smashed. No doubt about it.
Are you sure you are not getting mixed up with the crooked Curia/ Taxpayer Union Pollng company and the gas lighting Mike Hosking full page photo advert. in the N.Z Herald everyday stating “Hear yourself thinking” under his mug shot….
Extreme constant confusion is a mental condition.
Absolutely agree with this:
That’s why the Kākāriki Alliance between TPM and Greens is so essential.
The two of them are the future and whilst the TOP party have got good environmental policies – I haven’t managed to find any foreign policy – and they are to the right in everything else but the environment.
” It is in the negotiation AFTER the election with Labour using a unified negotiating team of Green and TPM to force the real tax changes and environmental policy we need ”
Let’s be honest even with an increase in the Green parties share of the vote after the general election they wont use that when it comes to negotiating with Labour should it look like they could form a government.
They will settle for a couple of Labour’s crumbs from the table and a couple of ministerial seats outside of cabinet and think they have achieved something when their supporters will want real concessions.
TMP and Tamihere are the bulldozers that will not tolerate the usual incremental neoliberal bullshit every time LINO are in government.
If TOP are there ( and Labour will be hoping they are ) it will be interesting to see the dynamics at play and if Hipkins and his colleagues will bully them into submission.
If there is a change IF ! We cannot afford a rerun of the last Labour government who showed how useless they were with a once in a lifetime majority in the parliament.
The damage inflicted with business as usual neo liberalism deserves an emergency response to the situation we are facing.
Its time Hipkins and Labour get to grips with the reality of the crisis we are facing.
” New Zealand is facing overlapping crises—economic, social, ecological—and none of them can be solved by managing the status quo more efficiently. What is needed is a break from the neoliberal consensus that has dominated politics for decades. Labour will not provide that break. And unless the Greens rediscover the courage to challenge Labour rather than cling to it, they will not provide it either.
For now, voters are left with a dispiriting choice: two major parties competing to be the safest pair of hands for a system that is failing, and a Green Party that seems determined to play the role of loyal sidekick rather than transformative force. The country deserves better than capped fares and capped imagination.
https://nzagainstthecurrent.blogspot.com/2026/06/buisness-as-usual-and-greens-are.html
Martyn your “kakariki alliance” would lead us straight to the 3rd world. No thank you!
Well there are plenty of people in Aotearoa who already believe they are in the third world.
You mean they would want the cake to be shared out more fairly oh dear we can’t have that can we.
Ironically that’s where this coalition is taking us, make no mistake.
Polls go up and they go down, however the mood of the country is so low right now voting for the status quo continues the slide to a third world country.
ACT are on the way…out….they are too weird and loopy.
They will be lucky to make the 5% threshold by November…The billionaires are wasting the their illgotten gains on these clowns.
So bad and weird is their Mr know all know nothing ‘leader’…supposedly the ‘business guy’…who, in the end, couldn’t even organise a wet dream …(scrub your head out with that one)…school lunches… absolute hash of a clusterfuck…failed… sticking it to the Maoris….failed…borrowing less money…failed …lowering unemployment…property prices not gone up…failed failed failed failed.
However…There is one thing they might have some success in …killing more people at work…So far it’s cost the country $500,000+ in wages to pay Valium Van Valden to get that one across the line…. so well done there…really good value!!
All these things the billionaires paid for…and Seymour’s failed them at every turn….but like a drunk in a casino…they are throwing even more money at him in a desperate hope to eventually hit the jackpot.
And then there was their weird manager…now in jail of course…for sex offences with young teenage boys…
Once again… lots of ‘ick’ going on there.
Yip…they are all class those ACT silverspooners…
TOP and TPM are now the biggest risks to the left bloc gaining power at the next election. Both of these minor parties will draw left leaning votes without delivering an equivalent number of seats – this assumes TOP does not make the 5% threshold and TPM are not be a credible government partner.
“Look at that wasted TPM Party vote, if it was recycled to the Greens, that would see the Greens on 15% WHILE creating a huge TPM MMP Overhang!”
If the Greens were open about this strategy, they would likely lose some middle-class voters, though it’s hard to say how many. And if the strategy was successful, expect massive right-wing blowback in terms of trying to get rid of MMP, or the Māori seats, or both.
Removing MMP and the Maori seats will never happen, the streets would be swollen with protestors.
Bomber have you put this strategy to Green / TMP ?
What would prevent this accommodation from being implemented ?
Chloe is the one making the polling dip.
Bring back James Shaw.
Chloe is a political Star….extremely articulate…highly intelligent… and blessed with a very logical brain that can effortlessly distil things down to their essence without resorting to wishy washy verbal gymnastics.
She is the ultimate communicator!
She is stunning – Chloe could be prime minister tomorrow she is the Greens no 1 star and the No 1 star for the whole lot of them in parliament, intelligent, articulate, hard working and going for it.
Shaw was never great to be frank, not at all.
Chloe has it all, far more intelligent than any other MP in parliament and I don’t vote Green.