Trust Collapse Signals Challenging Election Ahead, New Data Shows – Lobby for Good

New Zealand faces a growing crisis of trust that could reshape the upcoming election, according to new analysis of the Acumen Edelman Trust Barometer 2026.

Recent data shows only 17% of New Zealanders believe the next generation will be better off than today, highlighting what analysts describe as a significant decline in public confidence about the future.

At the same time:

• Trust in government remains low at 45%
• Just 21% of New Zealanders believe government is effectively holding the country together
• And 76% of people are now hesitant to trust those unlike themselves

Together, these findings point to more than dissatisfaction – they indicate a broader erosion of trust across institutions, communities, and society itself.

From Frustration to Disengagement

Analysis suggests New Zealand is shifting from a period of public frustration into something more concerning, complete disengagement.

“People aren’t just questioning decisions anymore, they’re starting to lose faith in the system altogether,” said Erika Harvey, Director of Public Affairs at Lobby for Good.

“You can feel it in everyday life. When people are working harder but still falling behind, they start to question whether the system is actually working for them. That’s when things become vulnerable.”

This shift is particularly evident among younger New Zealanders. Insights gathered through community engagement initiatives through Youth Voices Action indicate a growing perception that:

• the system is not designed for them
• participation does not meaningfully influence outcomes
• and long-term optimism no longer feels realistic

“Among young people, what we’re seeing isn’t outrage, it’s withdrawal,” Harvey said.

“That’s far more concerning, because once a generation starts disengaging, rebuilding that trust becomes incredibly difficult.”

A Society Under Strain

The trust data aligns with broader social pressures being felt across the country.

New Zealanders are facing:

• rising cost of living pressures
• ongoing housing affordability challenges
• increasing demand on social services and community organisations

At the same time, sectors supporting vulnerable communities – including youth services, disability support, and frontline charities – are under increasing strain.

“This is where the gap between decision-making and lived reality becomes impossible to ignore,” Harvey said.

“People can feel when the system isn’t reflecting what’s actually happening in their lives, and that’s where trust starts to break down.”

The Lasting Impact of Covid-Era Division

The report also highlights ongoing social fragmentation following the Covid-19 response period.

Many New Zealanders experienced:

• strained personal relationships
• divisions within families and communities
• a sense that differing views were not always able to be expressed openly

As the Covid Inquiry continues, questions are being raised about decision-making processes and how uncertainty was communicated.

“For many people, the issue isn’t just what decisions were made, it’s whether they felt fully informed at the time,” Harvey said.

“And once people feel they weren’t told the full picture, that trust doesn’t just come back. It lingers, and it shapes how they respond the next time they’re asked to trust government decisions.”

Why This Matters for the Election

With New Zealand heading into an election, these trust dynamics are expected to play a defining role.

“This won’t be a typical election driven purely by policy differences,” Harvey said.

“It will be shaped by whether people still believe the system is fair, whether leadership reflects reality, and whether the future feels worth investing in.”

Low-trust environments are often associated with:

• increased voter volatility
• reduced effectiveness of traditional political messaging
• greater openness to anti-establishment narratives

A Warning for What Comes Next

The findings also raise concerns about New Zealand’s ability to respond effectively to future crises – including potential fuel supply disruptions.

“When trust is low, everything becomes harder,” Harvey said.

“Messaging is questioned, coordination becomes more difficult, and people rely more on their own judgement than official guidance. That’s when even manageable situations can become unpredictable.”

Conclusion

New Zealand is entering a period where trust, not just policy, will define outcomes.

The combination of declining institutional confidence, social fragmentation, and youth disengagement presents a significant challenge – not only for the upcoming election, but for the country’s resilience in the face of future pressures.

“The biggest risk isn’t just the crisis itself,” Harvey said.

“It’s facing it without the trust of the people you need to carry it through.”