TV3 & Roy Morgan shock poll: Winners, Losers & Predictions
Another set of polls showing Luxon’s luck holding out and more evidence the Māori Party are going to be the King/Queen maker which ACT and National love.
After saving NZ from Covid and making the wealthiest Kiwis $1Tillion richer, Labour seems surprised no one loves Jacinda anymore.
Those living week to week wonder how Jacinda is defining the word ‘kindness’.
There are of course Winners and Losers.
WINNERS:
Chris Luxon – Christian Lex Luther is fucking killing it bro! Never before has such mediocrity been given such a standing ovation! He’s the right wing David Shearer, a Captain Mumblefuck who can barely go 30seconds without shooting himself in the foot, and yet here he is soaring in the Polls. And that’s the point isn’t it? There is a chunk of NZ who hate Jacinda with an almost gleaming animosity and no matter how hopeless her opponent is, they will fanatically back him! In fact, it’s because he’s such a blundering clown that they fiercely support him, it’s a political cut-off-your-nose-to-spite-your-face dynamic. National voters are saying, ‘We hate Jacinda so much we will elect a bland CEO with zero intellectual curiosity and bare competence in the knowledge he’ll fuck things up way worse than they are now, but fuck Jacinda’. This is who we are now as a people.
Wellington Bureaucracy – What most NZers don’t understand about NZ politics is that winning power is VERY different from managing power. If you don’t arrive on day one with with a clear legislative agenda and enough mana to intimidate the Wellington Bureaucracy, you get nothing done. Representative Democracy in NZ is a masquerade so that you will participate and give it legitimacy, the truth is that the Wellington Bureaucracy runs the country and their middle class neoliberal pandering decides policy implementation, not the feckless and easily manipulated Ministers. Labour didn’t expect to win 2017 and they didn’t expect to win an MMP majority in 2020, so they’ve had no real 100 day legislative agenda to ram through and as such have been stymied ever step by the Wellington Bureaucracy. Jacinda may be kind and she may really want transformative change, but if you don’t come to Wellington with a clear plan as to how to force the Bureaucracy to implement your manifesto, then transformative change becomes a virtue signal of aspiration rather than actual policy. The Wellington Bureaucracy have escaped having to lose any of their fiefdoms and will just coast the next 18months till the election to welcome the change of management teams and more empty promises of achievement.
Winston Peters & NZ First – Is Trevor Mallard secretly working for NZ First? Winston must have orgasmed when he saw Mallard had trespassed him, he will milk this outrage until its dry, NZ First are so back in power and will reach 5% on Election Day 2023. The only thing that will stop this is if the Grim Reaper personally intervenes and takes Winston’s life himself, and even then, Winston will take his death to court and legally challenge it. Welcome back Winnie, it doesn’t matter what part of the political spectrum you are from, trespassing Politicians from Parliament is egregious and outrageous.
Trevor Mallard – Mallard could eat a kitten live on Seven Sharp & Labour and the Greens would blame the kitten for being delicious – that’s how untouchable Mallard is after he saved them all from the smelly lumpenproletariat Nazis on Parliament’s Lawns during the Dumb Lives Matter protest.
Māori Party – Despite their really flakey stuff, they are increasingly the only way Labour + Greens gets to 51%. Desperately needs JTs leadership or else their King maker/ Queen maker status will be exploited mercilessly by ACT.
Leo Molloy – As Auckland turns against Labour, Leo Molloy’s campaign for Mayor builds and the Left should start panicking because the symbolism of the Left losing Auckland a year before the general election will burn.
Labour Party – Despite another gruelling month of negative media, Labour still somehow manage to hold onto 38%, that’s pretty amazing and still testimony that they have a fighting chance in 2023.
LOSERS:
Labour + Green activists – Their ability to alienate potential voters is a super power. Kiwis despise woke activists screaming TRANSPHOBIC RACIST SEXIST at them sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo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much they will elect a candidate as useless as Luxon just to spite Labour & the Greens.
Green Party – As predicted by TDB, the Greens have disappeared up their own arsehole and have pushed for a New Non Binary Co-leadership Model. Most people will not understand this, they will think it means the other co-leader is Trans. The perception that the Greens are just a Feminist party with some environmentalism thrown in could cause the Green Male vote to either transfer on mass to Labour, or be tempted by Winston’s machismo, Christian Lex Luthor’s eager Dad routine or stand up comedian David Seymour’s sick burns. The Greens will herald their non-binary co-leadership model as progress, the wider electorate will see it as emblematic of a woke dogma that alienates far more than it can recruit at a time of peak economic anxiety. Pure temple politics is fine until all the people you’ve denied into the temple are far larger than you can ever hope to be. James will go, the new non binary co-leadership model will be adopted, 10 000 people will like it on Twitter and it will lead to the Greens limping home with 7% in 2023. Chloe as a leader on her own could get 15%, winning it through a gerrymandered non-gender binary co-leadership model will rob her of the mana she deserves. It just hurts all the time being a Green Party voter now. What self respecting male would vote for this blancmange of virtue signalling woke dogma? The planet is literally burning and the Greens are fiddling.
Beneficiaries – If National and ACT get in, they will destroy beneficiaries lives. If Labour remains in, life will be barely liveable. It’s the difference between sleeping rough in your car and living in a motel crammed between gang members and sex offenders.
Renters – If National and ACT get in, they will hand disgusting powers to the Landlords to screw you over so that your only options are sleeping rough in your car or living in a motel crammed between gang members and child offenders. If Labour remain you still won’t be able to afford rent and your options will be sleeping rough in your car or living in a motel crammed between gang members and sex offenders.
First home buyers – Either party wins, you’ll be sleeping rough in your car or living in a motel crammed between gang members and sex offenders.
Working Classes – You are fucked either way.
David Seymour – Spare a thought for poor David Seymour. He is infinitely smarter than Chris Luxon and yet he has to play second fiddle to this Christian Lex Luther clown who can’t answer questions for longer than 30 seconds without shooting himself in the foot. David has to pretend all the support rushing away from ACT to National doesn’t hurt, and it’s particularly tough because it’s all free market dynamics at work. The Free Market should never reward the mediocrity of Chris Luxon, yet it is! For Free Marketers like David, National going up while ACT goes down is like finding out God doesn’t like you!
PREDICTIONS:
NZ First are back, Mallard has gifted Winston his news oxygen lifeline all the way to the 2023 election and it’s safe to say he’ll return not wanting any deal with Labour, this sets up a National+ACT+NZ First Government vs a Labour+Green+Māori Party Government. John Tamihere’s leadership will be looked upon to create stability in a Party that has become well known for its flakiness.
Chloe will become co leader of the Greens but the freakishly woke new non binary co-leadership model will rob her of the full mana she deserves as it will be seen as tokenism and not the new voice of a new generation.
Luxon will continue to stumble and fumble and keep gaining ground.
CONCLUSION:
One of the reasons why I think Labour and the Greens have lost so much support is because their supporters are nasty spiteful clowns and via proxification, people end up hating them and by proxy, the Labour and Green parties.
I’m to the Left of Lenin yet all Social media has taught me is how to hate woke activists as much as I hate Qanon Incel anti-vaxx lunatics. This alienation of male voters by the Left is playing out in the Polling and as the woke Green activists and Tribal Labour supporters get angrier and angrier, they’ll alienate more and more male voters.
Just consider this, Luxon is a fucking hopeless and woeful candidate who can’t do 20 minute interviews. His polices will only make the economic stresses worse and he has no real solutions to any of our societal troubles YET this turd rolled in glitter is preferable to voting Labour and Greens for many men.
Why is that?
The Right look for recruits and the Left look for traitors and right now, the right are winning.
To win 2023, the Left need to do far more bread and butter issues and far less pronouns and militant Te Reo pronunciation.
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I’m guessing quite a few in Labour will be looking at job vacancies right now, picturing life in 18 months time.
Some will be delusional enough to think Grants next two budgets will save them, the glitter of the announcements that they really care, not realising we’ve stopped listening to PR spin doctors empty promises years ago
Michael Wood will continue to plan his epic 30 billion dollar Star Wars light rail line that National will bin the moment they’re elected and few would have used but meanwhile in “Climate Change is my generations nuclear free moment”ville, North West Auckland, aka Kumeu, that has a virtually unused rail line sitting right there connecting the rapidly growing area with downtown Auckland, drowns under Co2 producing traffic gridlock starting at 5.30am or 3.30 pm in the evening in the other direction because there is no public transport worth using.
And yet they’ll continue to fuel vote losing causes by tacitly encouraging the loathsome repellent bike lobby in Auckland simultaneously. No wonder Leo looks so damned good!
The perception that the cool kids who couldn’t count on day one of their government back in 2017 can’t get anything meaningful done, has solidified into reality.
My biggest fear is Labour today has done irreparable damage to Labour’s tomorrow!
The Green Party’s achievements for their second term in the current government…
Non binary co-leadership. Even better, deleting the male gender from the equation. Yessssss!
Well if there was a TRUE alternative for the working class and ‘left politics’ to vote for, other than the ‘JK light’ LINO then Luxon/NACT wouldn’t be doing too well.
If the option is sh1t1 or sh1t2, then the vote will toggle between the two and mean NOTHING.
Big mistake opening the borders to all on 1 May and deaths going up.
We already have massive Covid cases and opening the borders hasn’t helped tourism, (now on the level 3 banned traveller list for US travellers due to our Covid risks).
We are back to huge congestion and a traffic accident every day in Auckland blocking the main motorways and putting more people into hospital.
They opened our borders for all without MIQ for the tourist industry on 1 may and within days more death/accidents and destruction seems to be occurring.
Woke/right wingers/AT/NZTA will advocate spending more billions on transport, they can’t work out what is contributing to congestion and accidents!!!
When our borders were closed NZ went back to normal transport levels with less accidents and congestio but now lets get 5000 new residents per week back driving on our roads and frequenting our hospitals for our neoliberal and woke enablers!
Doesn’t help business when NZ is closed down as nobody can get anywhere due to accidents and Covid outbreaks occur due to Labour and Greens stupidity and backing down to the small but well organised anti vaxx lobby groups.
Labeen were very popular during the locks downs, but that goes when they open the borders to Natz gain!
Glad to see the neoliberals who were sh+*tting themselves that wages were going to rise and their workers will leave their shi+tty job with their poor management are safe now that the temp visa Ponzi can start up again and the cash for work can escalate.
Sadly for Labeen those leaving and being sh*tted on in the workplace with lower wages and conditions are the former Labeen voters who now know what is coming back…
70% of Kiwi own their own house, Hopefully at least 10+% are in low rent state housing so that only leaves a vocal angry 20% who are concerned about rents….
Yet at least 65% are concerned about wages, income and conditions here!
You have to hand it to the right wingers and woke that they have destroyed the environment and food supply in their quest for more residential property development for spec developers on the taxpayers dime, when it probably mades up only 20% of voters as an election issue, while at least 70+% are more concerned about incomes/wages and 70% feel the most secure about their family home as a safe investment.
I’m sure hearing about the wealth tax about to hit them and looking forward to a major motorway accident a day on the roads, congestion, no free hospital beds and lower/static incomes with higher living costs for rates and power and insurance, is a big turn on. (Sarcasm).
It’s a huge disappointment for me, a middle class Labour voting boomer, to contemplate the coming election. The race is on for this Government to actually get something done. Not to re-arrange the deck chairs. I’m lucky because I have middle class problems. Will my kids have negative equity and high interest on their newly purchased homes
Will there be someone to bathe my mother each day or will she sit there in her room cocooned in dementia. I shudder to think of all those people who have problems that are so much more urgent who live in such despair and still wait. No one putting up their hand to lead us is currently showing any clear path forward.
Peter our current government has and continues to build. But if National get back in they will sell just like they have done before and they will push all the responsibility back onto community groups to provide services so they can keep an arms distance from any problems and then blame the community providers if there are any problems. Its called passing the buck.
Peter H,
The new builds are designed for overseas buyers – new builds are often exempt from the overseas buyers bill and other taxes that Kiwis have to pay on existing rental housing.
The whole hand wringing and drive for more apartments due to ‘warm, dry’ mantra is NOT designed for Kiwis living here who need housing – that’s just the woke and right wing drum up for business for the neoliberal agenda.
For example
https://nz.hougarden.com/15-54-taharoto-road-takapuna-auckland-auckland-1731558
“Takapuna 3房 BRAND NEW & AFFORABLE IN THE HEART OF TAKAPUNA
Almost finished and ready for you to be the FIRST occupant of this lovely, newly built family home.
This is luxury living but without the silly price tag, right in the heart of Takapuna. Presenting your new home in the fabulous boutique development – Lake Park.
Overseas buyers are welcome!”
Alls close to NZ state schools, hospitals, and amenities in the area, including ‘fresh air’ on 3 sides.
Not many NZ renters on NZ wages, can afford the new apartments being built, 3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, no/little gardens and surprise, surprise people are starting to feel mentally ill after living in them.
If they leak, their neighbours rates will go up as the council gets to pay for it.
Unfortunately the majority of renting Kiwis are not able to afford any new builds by design. That means that the government and business will be expected to fill them up with another ‘team of 5 million +’ and get the education and people trafficking Ponzi back again.
How to pay for all the infrastructure, hospitals and schools and social welfare needed for the increased population?
Government debt which means we will be selling off public assets again very soon to the same people that just profited from the Labour and woke governments policies. The woke still cry out we need more houses.
In Auckland, new ‘warm, dry’ builds are everywhere, but not designed for NZ wages or NZ families as the humble, 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom, large section state house was cancelled.
Lets see how well these apartments work for our emergency housing and state house waiting lists.
My guess, is NZ is already in oversupply of the wrong types of housing via Wellington/AK Council’s Woke Twitter planning and tax exemption systems.
Leo Molloy as Auckland Mayor…haha
Same guy paid ex boxer Sean Sullivan $1000 to sort out Astrologer Don Murray….because Molloy didn’t like what feather duster Murray said about him online. Also showed he was comfortable to lie about what unfolded.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/2364164/Ex-boxer-sent-to-sort-out-astrologer
Same guy disagreed with a name suppression order so decided what he wanted was more important than the law.
I wouldn’t underestimate Molloy.
He is connecting with those who have lost out through some stupid governmental decisions, he’s anti Auckland Transport and someone needs to be, a CCO that are little more than a mini North Korea and probably the right man at the right time
How he connects with the rest of the council is a mystery however!
Another council puppet funded by the neoliberals for their purposes. \
We have a choice between the woke puppets and the far right puppets, however both sides methods seem similar to undermine others, which is why few vote in council elections.
He is the last type of person needed to be front person for the Supercity–Efeso Collins is in with a good show if he can get the working class vote out and do some community organising.
There are multiple right wing candidates, so unless someone figures out how to lift voter participation from the recent 32–38% range Mr Molloy can likely go back to what ever is that he was doing.
He’s big on Aucklands car parking issues and anti cycling, so one can expect even greater vehicle congestion when he becomes mayor.
“when” Bert? surely you jest.
Haha!
Yes well I will be putting up my homemade banners telling all bottom feeders to vote come election time.
Jacinda vs Luxon. It’s like a Marvel movie with two arch enemies who both have respectable lives and look impressive to the populace but then at night the dark side comes out and it’s evil vs evil. There are no good options. The only way a good option could appear is if a new Labour leader appeared who understood the working class and supported them. A person who was not in the pocket of the rich and who introduced a much needed Capital Gains Tax. Dreams are free.
Aussie PM’s swipe at NZ, Ardern as Kiwis struggle with cost of living
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/politics/cost-of-living-scott-morrison-takes-swipe-at-new-zealand-ardern-as-kiwis-struggle-to-make-ends-meet/
“Food prices in New Zealand have climbed 7.6 per cent in the 12 months from March 2021 to March 2022, according to Stats NZ.
Fruit and vegetables climbed 18 per cent.
Meat, poultry and fish increased 8.7 per cent, restaurant food 5.1 per cent and non-alcoholic drinks 2.7 per cent.
Morrison’s comments come as it was revealed low income earners in this country are spending an entire day’s pay on their weekly commuting costs, according to a union.
According to figures in April, the New Zealand median weekly rent was up 7 per cent annually to $575 per week in March. In Auckland, rents increased by 3 per cent annually to $610 per week.
In response to the rising costs of living, Ardern said in April she acknowledges “it’s hard now”, but believes a swathe of increases to benefits, superannuation and student support which has kicked in, will benefit 1.4 million people and make a difference.”
Ok you superficially win if you are on a benefit, are retired or a student in NZ with Labour but lose if you are working (one day of labour is so low in NZ, it now equals commenting costs to work for the week, what’s next scurvy for workers in a country that used to grow food.
What happened to LABOUR for workers in NZ?
Professional qualified workers are less interested in benefits and residency in a country, they just want higher wages to get ahead and save – thus OZ suits professionals while not having to worry about supporting the dead beats. (Those gratefully received as 501′ into NZ).
So many professional people I know have moved to OZ or the UK – it’s scary that NZ is becoming a 3rd world country with lower and lower educational levels,
Dino transport, takeouts, B&B’s and poorly build over priced apartments are the only thing that government are obsessed with driving the economy and getting cheap workers to those industries at the cost to everyone else and the long term future of NZ.
lol Luxon really is bloody useless i’m amazed he can stand up at all without polling it first.
If there was ever a reason not to vote for the Greens at the last election….its triple now……Labour are hinging on farmers being grateful to Damien O’Conner for saving them from Mycoplasma Bovis and all the free trade guarantees he’s won them overseas.
Greens are not Greens they are identity Greens – triple reasons not to vote for them for most environmentalists, men, over 30 yo, those that identify as white, or any other demographic Greens seem to hate and blame.
To win 2023, the Left need to do far more bread and butter issues and far less pronouns and militant Te Reo pronunciation.
After reading the transmogrification that Martyn has achieved with mere words and the hologram that Tane has built with his, the words in italics above seem to shine in the sky.