TDB 2021 predictions vs 2021 reality
So here were TDBs 2021 predictions, how well did they stack up?
PREDICTION 1
After every major pandemic, there is social unrest…
“So when our Sickness, and our Poverty Had greater wants than we could well supply; Strict Orders did but more enrage our grief, And hinder in accomplishing relief.”
That’s how the British poet George Wither explained a spreading rebellion against social-distancing rules. Seeing quarantines and lockdowns as unfair and tyrannical punishments, people were taking to the streets. The year was 1625, the place was London, the disease was plague.
…The peasant revolt in the 1300s, the civil unrest in the 1600s and the civil disobedience in the 1900s. The strict measures required to snuff out pandemics always makes the lives of the poorest unliveable, we haven’t seen the economic whiplash of Covid yet, especially amongst small business owners and those who were already vulnerable.
The desperate and newly desperate will swell globally and cause enormous cultural friction.
These waves of social disruption will reverberate around a rapidly warming planet.
OUTCOME: The madness of the AntiVaxxers and their ill defined hatred bears out this prediction in stark detail. 10/10
PREDICTION 2
Trump & Georgia – All eyes will still be on Trump all January as the final days in the Bunker start to play out for him. Is Trump a craven coward who is pulling one last scam to shake down his followers for hundreds of millions or is he really a full blown sociopath who will launch a military strike against China or Iran? If the Dems can win Georgia they finally take control of the Senate and they will have actual power, the Corporations will not like that.
OUTCOME: The American military were so worried Trump would launch a last minute attack on China that they contacted them directly to assure them it wouldn’t happen. Trump’s attempted coup on the 6th of January was in some ways worse than a last minute attack on another country. 7/10
PREDICTION 3
China – Their Wolf Diplomacy to whip up nationalistic fervour is masking a fear of internal revolt. Expect China to violently take Hong Kong, sabre rattle over Taiwan and threaten anyone in the West who says otherwise to send a domestic and international message of brutal strength.
OUTCOME: With the deplorable crack down on Hong Kong happening right now, and the sabre rattling over Taiwan this prediction was on the money. 10/10
PREDICTION 4
Covid – It will continue to disrupt enormously. The issues of rolling out this vaccine to everyone will be a huge challenge that will need to become an annual ritual requiring 75% to gain herd immunity. The logistics of that are huge and we will be lucky to reach 75% globally by the end of 2022, so the economic damage won’t really start healing for another 2 years.
OUTCOME: Mostly true. 7/10
PREDICTION 5
Putinless Russia? Recent rumours of his demise were apparently over stated but a Putinless Russia would create an enormous power vacuum at a time of high instability.
OUTCOME: 100% wrong! 0/10
PREDICTION 6
Climate Crisis & Social Unrest – The economic stresses of Covid alongside more climate extremes will see a wave of famines in 2021.
There will be pressures caused by mass migration into Western countries who will already be grappling with intense social economic frictions, expect one of Biden’s first challenges to be a wave of climate refugees crossing the Southern Border.
The venal excesses of Wall Street Billionaires and their never ending wealth gains will cause enormous social distortions and lead to economic radicalisation.
Social Media disinformation will continue to polarise debate and create alternate realities.
OUTCOME: On the money, the only thing I got wrong was the Billionaires in spaceships! 9/10
PREDICTION 7
Unemployment, poverty, homelessness and inequality to rise – We are expecting 70 000 more people on welfare, joblessness to spike and with those pressures, homelessness will rise as inequality deepens. 22 000 are on social housing waiting lists, 1 in 5 children are in poverty and property speculators are driving generations out of home ownership.
OUTCOME: Poverty, homelessness and inequality rose but unemployment plunged. 8/10
PREDICTION 8
Crime Wave – The 501s now have their supply chains for South American Cartel meth established alongside a stand over regime on the domestic gangs. Expect more brain haemorrhages as older meth users smoke purer and cheaper meth and an explosion of violent crime aimed against Dairies and Bottle Stores as desperate users try to rob for cash. Guns are pouring into the country because of the meth trade. This alongside the economic fall out of the pandemic will see a crime wave across the country which will give National their first chance to play the law and order card. There is also growing extremism from prisoners who have served long sentences without any rehabilitation.
OUTCOME: All correct, even the ISIS terrorist radicalized in prison! 10/10
PREDICTION 9
Ihumātao whiplash – The deal at Ihumātao is going to spark a serious of similar occupations around the country as other Māori rise up against unjust previous agreements.
OUTCOME: There were a couple of these in places but nowhere near enough to get a 5 out of 10. 3/10
PREDICTION 10
Free Speech implosion – The Hate Speech legislation has the potential of igniting a debate the Left aren’t ready to argue convincingly. The backlash by the woke in social media feeds will have people fearing less for minorities exposed to hate speech and fear more being accused of hate speech.
OUTCOME: This built but will get far worse next year. 9/10
PREDICTION 11
Radicalisation & Polarisation – With all the economic stresses and ease of disinformation, expect radicalisation and polarisation to build, not dissipate.
OUTCOME: Maori sovereignty flags, swastikas and MAGA flags combined? 10/10
PREDICTION 12
Climate Crisis – We will face droughts, cyclones, forest fires and extreme rainfall events. The damages will mount alarmingly. Labour and the Greens will push for recommendations early in the year for emission cut backs and the Agricultural Lobby will faint at any mention of methane inclusion. Water reforms will keep David Parker too busy to do anything else.
OUTCOME: Yes. 10/10
PREDICTION 13
Labour & Jacinda – Jacinda will increasingly be called on by global partners to front and lead more geopolitical fronts. Labour’s Caucus will baulk at the lack of actual transformative change and start to agitate for far more than Grant wants to pay for.
OUTCOME: Not really. 0/10
PREDICTION 14
National – Will continue to wander for 40 days and 40 nights in the desert. Judith will use the crime wave to promise public floggings, but National are too deeply dysfunctional to offer a credible alternative.
OUTCOME: Pretty much. 8/10
PREDICTION 15
Greens – Will increasingly look like they are propping up mediocrity and tepid nothingness. Won’t be able to help themselves over the Hate Speech legislation. Members will get increasingly frustrated by the lack of anything meaningful.
OUTCOME: Kinda. The members were far more prepared to prop up mediocrity than I had thought. 5/10
PREDICTION 16
ACT – Will manipulate the Free Speech debate and continue to cannibalise National vote. Will crack 10%.
OUTCOME: Yes! 10/10
PREDICTION 17
Māori Party – Have so many targets to shoot at, will continue to hold the Government’s feet to the fire.
OUTCOME: No, they went a bit nutty this year with their claims of genocide and demands to create a SIS Stasi! 5/10
So out of 170, TDB got 121. That’s a 71% hit rate compared with Stuffs 57%.
TDBs 2022 predictions are out on the first week of January.
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Excellent!
Pretty much on the money. as I expected.
Now if you can include monthly star signs for 2022 with the same accuracy you could easily double your readership…
Feliz Año Nuevo!
Excellent!
Pretty much on the money, as I expected.
Now if you can include monthly star signs for 2022 with the same accuracy you could easily double your readership…
Feliz Año Nuevo!
Happy new year.
I have to say there is not a poster on here who I don’t share at least one view point with, although it may only be our points of difference we argue over.
In my profession I’m lucky enough to see a whole spectrum of society – from the very poor relying on charity, to the very rich who look to solve everything with money, and one thing I want you all to know is that under emotional distress people are overwhelmingly empathic, generous and open whatever their station.
People are inherently caring.
We need to look more for what we have in common and actually work together for the 98% of being a kiwi we all share in common.
I fear that 2022 will see further wedge politics over race, gender, urban vs rural and all the other political fissures used to force us apart.
I’m not a New Years resolution type of person but I intend to post less – aside from over moderation, adding to polarity is too often unhelpful.
Have a great year everyone, look out for each other – if you bumped in to one your fellow posters who you fought with online on a beach somewhere you’d probably be good mates in about 5 minutes.
What good thoughts kcco which I agree with. We are being split apart when we should be coalescing to cope with the stresses from rapid change and concept manipulation through ‘talkies and picccies and instant reaction’.
And a happy new year to you too. Stay covid free and even those who think it’s “just the flu”.
I really hope to see 2022 as the year for practical environmentalism and stopping Growth Greed.
Ban all unnecessary plastic waste and not allow plastic waste to be exported from country of origin. Make those producing and selling goods in plastic, financially responsible for its disposal like supermarkets, manufacturers and takeaways. Before you know it, if they are forced to pay, they will be using cardboard and biodegradable packaging and save billions of tons of landfill going to someone else’s neck of the woods.
‘Waste colonialism’: world grapples with west’s unwanted plastic
Germany and UK are big exporters of plastic, much of which lies rotting in ports in Turkey, Vietnam and other countries
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/31/waste-colonialism-countries-grapple-with-wests-unwanted-plastic
That’s a wrap: French plastic packaging ban for fruit and veg begins
Law bans sale of carrots, bananas and other items in plastic as environment groups urge other countries to follow
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/31/thats-a-wrap-french-plastic-packaging-ban-for-fruit-and-veg-begins
Vaclav Smil: ‘Growth must end. Our economist friends don’t seem to realise that’
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/sep/21/vaclav-smil-interview-growth-must-end-economists
“China has poured more cement every three years since 2003 than the US managed in the entire 20th century. ”
Developers owe $19.8bn in dollar-denominated offshore debt in the first three months of the year as issues that blighted Evergrande spread
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/31/evergrande-chinese-property-sectors-debt-crisis-to-intensify-in-2022
Time to spend more time and effort on improving life for existing people, animals and flora, not making it worse for everyone and making money from polluting, while leaving the discarded waste as someone else’s problem.
Other 2022 issues, water inequality – when someone has a permit to take water (especially for the trivial like golf courses) and make everyone elses life downstream a life of water uncertainty, loss of flora and fauna and drought.
And NOPE 3 waters is going to make it all worse just like the government did with property changes and now making life harder and a bureaucratic minefield for many. Apparently they don’t rent the baches anymore, clearly not understanding that baches don’t meet the government committeee gold standards of healthy homes and building consents. You know, they built them, themselves without a permit back in the day. Try getting a builder to work on a Bach….. you might need 5 years of NZ’s low wage incomes to bring them up to code, if that is even possible to get a builder to work on a bach as they can then become liable for work they didn’t do!
Same going to happen with government’s 3 waters.
Well I guess if STUFFed can blow its own trumpet, there’s no reason why TDB shouldn’t do the same. AND without funding from NuZull on Ear.
Btw – it’s official: there are two words that’ve been deleted from the dikshunairy. One is bRought, the other is humility in that space, going forward. The former is because everything is bought and sold, the latter is because humility no longer exists
And that’s an observation without the benefit of any funding, OR without the need to fucking register where there’s a need to provide contact details, AND in an environment where anyone sees themselves as having journalistic quality.
Funny old World eh.
Prediction 11 – “Radicalisation & Polarisation – With all the economic stresses and ease of disinformation, expect radicalisation and polarisation to build, not dissipate.”
Prediction 11 makes perfect sense, as that has been the trajection for so long now. Sadly it overwhelms the possibility of meaningful growth and understanding.
Quite honestly I’m not sure some of your statements contribute to alleviating this penchant for polarisation.
These stand out for me amongst a standout set of issues.
PREDICTION 10 – Free Speech implosion – The Hate Speech legislation has the potential of igniting a debate the Left aren’t ready to argue convincingly. The backlash by the woke in social media feeds will have people fearing less for minorities exposed to hate speech and fear more being accused of hate speech.
OUTCOME: This built but will get far worse next year. 9/10
I have noticed how hard it is for people affected by this correct speech PC woke thing, to actually think widely, deeply, and discuss objectively. It seems narrow Puritans against Others again.
PREDICTION 13
Labour & Jacinda – Jacinda will increasingly be called on by global partners to front and lead more geopolitical fronts. Labour’s Caucus will baulk at the lack of actual transformative change and start to agitate for far more than Grant wants to pay for.
OUTCOME: Not really. 0/10
Let’s send the caucus to the Caucasus, or anywhere really. Get some more trained in another, serviceable model. Our government model has updated to a new, business model. To control business product quality they are meant to produce fit for purpose – our government/business doesn’t. Are they trying to have their cake and eat it too? It seems they are and can and one has to look to Aldous Huxley’s cool thoughts for elucidation as our education has not prepared us for the Deep Thought needed in the 21st Century.
There are too many pyramid builders, and desires to forget history so we can make the same mistakes again. But not the same – Greek philosopher Heraclitus: No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same ma.
We are being split apart when we most need to think together and examine our reality and our options. Humans are good at fracturing things. This about how we tackled stone mountains to get the substance from which we build palaces to express our superiority and style.
In ancient times, during the Roman age, when the exploitation of Carrara quarries began, the cutting was done with manual methods which implied the separation of the marble bench wall from the mountain through fracture. … The expansion of the wood had the wedges swollen, breaking the marble and separating the bench wall.Marble – the quarrying techniques
It seems that we love engineering, making things (space ships now for jaunts into space, planes for flying over and into bits of the planet – Ooh, Aah, Er? But we don’t like thinking about values and what we actually are while we are being and doing. Our gummint has dropped Humanities in tertiary units to be replaced by science which will lead to innovation, which will lead to money. Oh how we love the smell of money as it comes off the manufacturing unit, or we add 0000’s to pictograms on our computers!
We who care about living in a functioning world, getting on with each other, and not being destructive but rather giving back to the planet for each thing we take from it, need to stick together. We need to find that common ground where we stand and deal with our problems, not perfectly, but trying to be fair, honest, practical and wary of the overly ambitious. Fripperies that people are filling their minds with are a symptom of our troubles and distract us; regard the denizens of frip with some sympathy but wariness –
Luke 23:34 KJV Then said Jesus, Father, forgive them; for they know not what they do. And they parted his raiment, and cast lots. https://www.biblegateway.com › passage › version=KJV