7 weeks until NZ election – what does the political landscape look like?
So we are now less than 7 weeks until the 2020 NZ Election due on September 19th. The pandemic has generated an unforeseen unprecedented universal event that has generated a solidarity and a genuine gratitude of Jacinda’s leadership which is translating into political loyalty beyond anything we have seen in recent political history.
To be clear, Labour have NO idea what they are doing next, they are barely keeping their head above water because of the constant crisis pressure created by the pandemic and aren’t sure what policy to roll out. None of that matters however because a huge majority of the electorate just love Jacinda.
I know, I know, I know. That’s a crazy way to run a democracy, but she’s earned a second term and you all know it.
• August 6: The House will rise
• August 12: Parliament will be dissolved
• September 2: Overseas voting starts
• September 5: Advance voting starts
• September 18: Advance voting ends and all election and referendum advertising must cease the night before election day with signs taken down by midnight.
• September 19: Voting places will open from 9am until 7pm that night when election results will be released progressively.
• October 2: Preliminary results for referendum votes on cannabis and end of life choice will be released.
• October 9: Official results including special votes for the 2020 General Election and referendums declared.
LABOUR: Prediction 50%+
Jacinda is a phenomena in that she is a collection of phenomenon.
The middle classes see their lock down self sacrifice as the greatest act of NZ courage since the storming of Gallipoli and they are welded to how noble they were because it was the first time they felt the vulnerability the Precariat feel every day of the week.
That vulnerability spooked the Bejesus out of them.
They are grateful to how Jacinda led us through this and that gratitude has manufactured a political loyalty that crosses class and ideological boundaries that will see Labour win an unprecedented majority Government.
Everything in NZ happens in the shadow of a global mountain of dead from the pandemic, and that forgives any Labour Party sin.
NATIONAL: Prediction less than 30%
When Judith won the National Party leadership, I wrote…
In their moment of desperation and fear, National have selected a politician they can’t control.
Crusher has sold a softer image of herself, but it’s just shallow re-branding. The truth is that she is the dirty politics player she has always been. Malice, spite and divisiveness, that’s what is her political DNA so expect a campaign where she won’t be able to help herself.
It won’t be the policy that offends, as it will be made so loophole ridden National can define it any way they like, it will be Judith who won’t be able to help herself.
…and like clockwork, she just can’t help herself.
Judith has all the empathy of a hungry wolverine in a pre-natal ward.
The Polls are suggesting voters have recoiled in horror from Judith after the electorate watched how casually she blew Iain Lees-Galloway’s brain and reputation all over Duncan Garner’s Breakfast Show studio floor for nothing more than to throw attention off her own MPs behaviour.
There’s no unseeing that and at a time when we are feeling vulnerable and appreciative of how important true political leadership really is, the more voters see of Judith’s malice reflex, the more they will run screaming from it.
National are promising a deregulated, underfunded State with open borders at a time when frightened voters are huddling for protection under the State to keep the virus out.
Once National get framed that way, no amount of Judith’s ‘What’s wrong with being white’ Ok Karen culture war shtick is going to cause the divisiveness she needs to win.
National will execute Judith the moment she loses the election, so expect her to get more desperate between now and September 19th.
NZ FIRST: Under 3% – No electorate
Na Na.
Na na na na.
Hey Hey Hey.
GOODBYE!
Altogether now!
Na Na.
Na na na na.
Hey Hey Hey.
GOODBYE!
It’s all over rover. Without the ability to be the Queen maker, Winston has all the power of Jareth at the end of Labyrinth. NZ First is only powerful if we think it has power and without any immigrants to rave at, he’s gone burger. The ONLY chance is Shane Jones beating that boiled ham, Matt King in Northland, but that’s a steep climb because Jones’ verbiage is far too cosmopolitan for Northland voters who are better known for their anti-vaccination and 5G conspiracies than love of provincial Keynesianism.
GREENS: 4% + 1 electorate
For reasons that have been building for the last 3 years, the Greens look doomed to come under 5% on election night, I think Chloe winning Auckland Central is their only chance now.
If they do come under 5%, their woke middle class activists who have spent 3 years alienating anyone on social media who doesn’t believe in their pure temple mantras will start screaming it’s the cishet patriarchy’s fault they came under 5%.
Note, it won’t be their alienating virtue signalling and Twitter lynch mobs, oh no, it will be the cishet patriarchy’s fault.
My eyes are already rolling into the back of my head.
Chloe Swarbrick is their only hope now.
ACT: 5% + 1 electorate
I remember last year when the woke activists were screaming to deplatform and censor free speech and I said at the time, ‘you fucking clowns are going to build David Seymour into a God. You fucking clowns’.
ACT on 5% – look at that. The I told you so express is on time.
If David hadn’t sold his soul to the NZ NRA, he would have gained this momentum all on his own. Now he’s held hostage by guns nuts. At some stage someone is going to have to launch an intervention to rescue him.
ACT’s success will make us all wish the woke hadn’t miscalculated so horribly over the free speech debate last year.
MAORI PARTY: Prediction 1.5% + 2 electorates
Exploiting the deep sense of resentment by Māori towards the neoliberal welfare agencies the Government haven’t been able to tame, they stand to gain 2% plus a win in both Tamaki Makaurau and Te Tai Hauāuru.
TOP: Prediction less than 1%
Sadly they haven’t built the momentum when they needed it. Risk getting a lower result than the New Conservatives.
New Conservative Party: Prediction less than 2%
Hateful of abortion, solo mothers, gays, solo mothers, cannabis and solo mothers, the New Conservatives love guns, patriarchy and more guns. Paranoid and frightened of any idea post the renaissance, the New Conservatives would represent a great leap backwards for New Zealand. It’s political thinking is so inbred, I suspect they would want to relax laws around cousins marrying. Banjo playing with your toes and burning books is mandatory to be a candidate.
Vision NZ: Prediction less than 1%
Hates all the same things as the New Conservatives but hates Muslims most. Libraries and clitorises would be banned if Vision NZ came to power.
One Party: Prediction less than 1%
Now, you would have thought Vision NZ and the New Conservatives had covered off the entire spectrum of right wing crazy Christian, but lo and behold, there’s another schism and it’s the ‘ONE Party’. They talk ALOT about ‘The Kingdom’ which is bizarre for a democracy. Under ONE Party, I think Jesus becomes the Constitutional Head of State and God has to personally sign off on legislation. The NZDF would be given spirit spears to fight Satan with and anyone caught working on Sunday is put to death. I think under The One Party, Gay Conversion treatment is mandatory for anyone who watches Glee. I think electricity and any singing that isn’t praising Jesus is also banned.
Advance NZ, NZPP, NZ People’s Party & Reset Party
Sith Jedi and Svengali of self interest, Jami-Lee Ross continues to play Conspiracy Theorist Billy TK as he builds his Fringe Army.
JLR is the puppet master here and has seen the potential of hoovering up all the wasted vote into one grand union of lunatics and he’s building it rapidly as he has realised Botany is a no go.
Manipulating Conspiracy Theorist Billy TK as an electorate entry via Te Tai Tokerau would get JLR back into Parliament if they manage 1.25% party vote.
This is a political swindle preying on the ignorance and fear of those who only source their news from Facebook. Never before has such political desperation mixed with pure insanity.
These people are anti 5G, anti vaccinations and anti fluoridation. For these people books really are fuel for burning witches at the stake with.
The Integrity Party: Prediction less than nothing.
Wants to be the kingmaker of politics with lots of middle of the road opinions. It’s that ugly blue green colour you have when environmentalism gets hit by capitalism. Has the kind of Māori buzz words you get when Wellington Bureaucrats are opening a sustainable pet crematorium.
Tea Party: Prediction less than 2%
Fresh from his tilt at the Auckland mayoralty, John Hong, NZs most active cheerleader for China, has formed his own Party and is aiming at the enormous Chinese diaspora in NZ to propel him into Parliament. For all the tea in China, I’m not sure the Tea Party has read the tea leaves here. If the Tea Party syphons off votes from National and they don’t reach the 5% threshold, Hong damages National and wastes all that vote. It’s a win win for the Left, so I for one say, ‘Keep going Mr Hong’.
CONCLUSIONS:
With the enrolment rule changes that allow for enrolment on the day alongside booths in malls, I think we will see a large turnout.
I think overseas votes will go overwhelmingly to Labour and not the Greens.
I think with the huge number of fringe parties we will see more wasted vote than ever before.
I think the Government will be a Labour Majority.
I think National will be lucky to gain 30%.
I think Judith will increasingly become more desperate and vicious.
NZ First won’t be politically relevant.
The only hope for the Greens is Auckland central.
ACT will suffer rapid growth pains from candidates they haven’t vetted properly.
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If Labour doesn’t get over 50 percent and the Greens don’t get back into Parliament, that will leave a sticky problem for Labour
Labour would need 47% and still get rounded up to 50%
Labour obviously deserve to get a second term, the left can then go for it in terms of building wide support and action for rolling back neo liberalism in all its forms.
If Jacinda and Grant think they can make progress with the treacherous top layer of state sector neo lib managerialists and Roger’n’Ruth’s toxic legislative platform intact they are much mistaken.
One small correction Martyn, Elections NZ have withdrawn the supermarket booth plan because of space constraints if there is a Covid outbreak. The square off is more early voting venues in communities-according to their CEO, but, after the Census debacle that claim probably needs nailing down too!
“If Jacinda and Grant think they can make progress with the treacherous top layer of state sector neo lib managerialists and Roger’n’Ruth’s toxic legislative platform intact they are much mistaken”
Totally agree!
That’s what worries me. I’m not sure they realise that yet. Jacinda has an excuse, possibly Grant too in that they’ve grown up and experienced nothing else. There’s still all that unimaginative/ideology/dogma TINA running through the veins. And transformation and kindness doesn’t mean one has to be kind and subservient to arseholes who aren’t kind to you – unless you’re into martyrdom
“To be clear, Labour have NO idea what they are doing next,”
Given the turmoil going on overseas with the pandemic, the world’s financial and trade systems, the belligerence of the US and Uk toward China and Russia at the moment this would be the only appropriate position to adopt. Anyone claiming to know exactly what to do next few months would want to be avoided. The idea that they are going to be flexible in how they deal with whatever develops is healthy and reassuring; especially in the light of how Jacinda has fielded the curved balls she has been served up so far.
I think the country is quietly very proud of the way our little society has responded to the virus . When parts of the UK have been in lockdown for 6 months because they didn’t go hard and go early. Sure we have been lucky , but the luck was spelt with a ‘P”. And the resentment has been minimal and the gratitude overwhelming while other countries are in near civil war .
If you lived in almost any country in the world at the moment you would move to New Zealand if you possibly could.
We live in interesting times
D J S
Anyone claiming to know exactly what to do next few months would want to be avoided.
Totally agree.
The idea that they are going to be flexible in how they deal with whatever develops is healthy and reassuring; especially in the light of how Jacinda has fielded the curved balls she has been served up so far.
Yes. Thank you for writing it so clearly. We really are in danger of becoming complacent, and that is concerning when there is so much to lose.
Most of us know only too well the diabolical direction the previous National Government was taking NZ. Horrendously underfunded infrastructure. Our health and education systems were starved of funding to assist National with their farcical and pointless rock star economy. No point in striking as National was like talking to a fence post at the negotiation table and patients would have been even biggest losers. Disillusioned Health professionals were leaving in droves and Jonathan Coleman couldn’t possible have cared less. Bye bye! Just replace them with foreign nurses. No problem. Our country was divided by a selfish and divisive pack of bastards who saw anyone needing support as the feral enemy. Housing crisis. What housing crisis? Poverty. What poverty? Those people are spending all their money at the casino and that’s apparently why they are struggling. Nothing whatsoever to do with a low wage economy where a select few were creaming obscene profits off the backs of struggling kiwi families. Couldn’t possibly be related to the housing crisis they encouraged and high rents. We won’t go into the Chinese influence in NZ that the National Party was courting and embracing etc etc etc etc.
Remarkably, National believe they are the party best equipped to deal with the economy during and after Covid. Really? Based on what evidence exactly? Them keep spouting off that they are best equipped? We all know that had National been in Government when Covid struck, we would be looking at a very different NZ now. A nightmare NZ where business was the only priority. The only support “other” kiwis would have received coming from their own kiwisaver funds so they can set up a business at the worst possible time and have their retirement security decimated. That’s National managing the economy. Lockdown? Not needed. NZ would have been a mini version of the United States with Covid. In addition to that, they now have a leader that is rightfully despised by virtually everyone who’s not a National Party supporter. An untrustworthy bully who takes up an entire chapter of the must read book DIRTY POLITICS.
This election is done and dusted. Labour will govern alone and National sent to the nearest landfill. The five biggest questions on election day are.
1) How will the minor parties do?
2) Just how badly will National be decimated?
3) What will be the result of the cannabis referendum?
4) How many hours after the election will it take for Luxon to be gifted the National Party keys?
5) How many of the remaining National Party MP’s will look at their party and then announce their retirement?
Interesting choice of picture for Labour- the iron fisted rule of a charismatic female leader “freer of slaves “ who wasn’t like the ruthless monarchs that came before – until it turned out she was and burned the city, men women, children alive.
Is this how Labour sees itself?
I’m happy for you to keep misrepresenting COLFO as something they are not, it seems to be helping ACTs polling and we will need a strong principled opposition.
2+2=4
At least going into the election we are in a better position with Covid than our Aussie mates and many others. And David Stone weren’t you one of the ones saying we should be COPYING our Aussie mates (less restrictions) and we need to get our borders open with our mates across the ditch asap for economic reasons. How many people like motor mouth hoskings said this and continued to advocate for less restrictions. Now some of these big mouth know everything people have fallen silent and they are looking for other holes to plug like economic recovery.
Exactly, our biased media give these people oxygen and then when they’re WRONG, they allow them NOT to held responsible for their ‘dumb ass ideas’.
How can Hoskins, Garner, ‘ex cricket playing no-body’ et al, still be allowed to be paid so highly and given so much oxygen to offer more of their opinions (as if they’re some sort of ‘valuable logical and sensible in-sighter’), when they were SO SO wrong and continue to be so?
No Michelle I wasn’t one of those. Absolutely not. I was concerned right at the beginning that the testing regime was too slow getting started but that might have been to do with materials and training.
D J S
At least going into the election we are in a better position with Covid than our Aussie mates and many others. And David Stone weren’t you one of the ones saying we should be COPYING our Aussie mates (less restrictions) and we need to get our borders open with our mates across the ditch asap for economic reasons. How many people like motor mouth hoskings said this and continued to advocate for less restrictions. Now some of these big mouth know everything people have fallen silent and they are looking for other holes to plug like economic recovery.
Given the state of our environment, our water problems, sewerage infrastructure, intensification issues the Green are more important than they have ever been. The problem is some people think they are looney lefts when really they care about our environment and so should we given we are about to be bombarded with all these people who want to come and live here.
It is ironical that as the more we need a Green solution the party meant to represent the enviroment is losing support. I believe it is because they are seen more as social warriors than fighting for the enviroment . Sage is a terrible minister and has done little to advance the Green cause. The Green co leader coming to Chch and blaming white men for the actions of the March 15 shotter upset many voters. They do not deserve to be in power
Trevor – I didn’t know about a Green going to ChCh, I only saw the news clip of the Auckland Muslim vigil, when four or so brown Green women launched an assault on Pakeha NZ’ers, not just on New Zealand men, for the alleged racism which they alleged culminated in the utterly terrible tragedy in Christchurch.
The last young female speaker I saw, told the audience, which included many Muslim New Zealanders, “White people hate us.” That was racism, and that was when I quit the Greens.
It was a shocking thing to do to the already traumatised Muslim community, and it was not true, and even at that stage it was known that the shooter was anti-Muslim, not anti people of colour. Greens hijacked that sad solemn occasion for their own prejudiced purposes, and so I agree with you that they do not deserve to be in power.
I agree with that assessment Trevor. The environmental issues get just enough attention to claim the title “green” . It’s being used as a vehicle to push a raft of policies that are far less a concern of the general population than the environment actually is.
D J S
Speaking of a dark hole that is what we will get if we let judeath run our country.
The Green’s “Vision for the Future” contains many useful proposals and approaches.
Certainly it would be helpful to package this in 2-3 main brief, concerted policy wrap-ups to be emphasized and promoted until election day.
Those selected 3 policy initiatives could be:
• Climate Change and green economy.
• Social equality, justice and poverty after Covid19.
• Citizen and community participation in disaster risk policies and management.
Unfortunately, all party options for the upcoming election are ideologically ‘free-market driven’, basically representing various degrees of neo-liberalism and capitalism.
Unfortunately, there is no eco-socialist formation in AO/NZ which, I do anticipate, would be most ideally fitted to politically respond to the unfolding ecological and socio-economic faults that will impact us.
Under the given circumstances, voting the Green Party remains the most suitable option for the coming election.
Common Sense.
https://vimeo.com/54322383
A heap of wishful thinking here with bomber leading the pack.
Aotearoa has always had a troubling relationship with polls, chiefly because the relatively small population encourages pollsters to make huge leaps off of tiny sample groups.
When that happens the hard core base of an established gang posing as a political party is under represented. Natz gangs tend to live in enclaves mostly missed by the artificially ‘random’ nature of polls limited by small samples.
Labour will probably win a simple majority, but beyond that everything is up for grabs.
I’m currently living in a south island regional center, where SFA of the ‘locals’ have shifted their position one iota from what it has always been, true blue Natz. Discussing the election with them is a trial of patience.
Nevertheless, the worthless incompetent who is running for about the 57th time because “he’s a good bloke” which he most assuredly is not, will piss it in in the electorate seat & I reckon there are far too many electorates in Aotearoa that have a similar problem.
Overhang is going to be a major issue this election. The true blue natz men will tick both boxes natz, but their wives & offspring are going to tick the box for the “good bloke” & then tick Labour for the party vote.
There is just no shifting most on this. A Greens team came to the door the other day – they aren’t running a candidate but are campaigning for the Party vote, they may move a few, but AFAIK Labour who haven’t been in evidence seem to be trying the same ploy. They have given up on the electorate seat as well & are also going for the party vote.
People haven’t changed their view about NZ1st, they’ve died, is what has happened & those that are left will still vote for Winston, but every year there are less & less hard-core pakeha NZ1sters.
The nature of politics, particularly in a nation which has a 3 year term is that as soon as one election is over, the pols’ minds move to the next election.
If labour is permitted to campaign solely on the ardern factor without stating policy, there is no way that Labour government will make any of the changes necessary to fix myriad problems with housing, poverty reinforced by immigration policy, underfunded health & education or property inflation because there will be so many new MP’s who just scraped into parliament off the party list.
They don’t know it yet but they are going to paranoically study tiny polls published by a media that Labour has failed to establish alternative options of, and conclude that their survival in the top paddock depends on not rocking the boat.
If any ‘old hands’ have balls enough to resist the noobies, those noobies, poorly versed in concepts like unity as they are, will leak like sieves to a hostile media.
Then scandals, dirty linen etc will paralyze Jacinda & co even more effectively than NZ1st is alleged to have done.
NZLabour must be held to policy before this election – otherwise the ‘win’ won’t be anything of the kind.
Chloe being stuck in Auckland central is a massive mistake. She should be touring universitys like crazy and going up and down the country promoting the weed referendum and getting the youth vote out. Chloe can’t win Auckland central it’s just not a left leaning electorate anymore. Wasting all her time in Auckland central when she’s the most popular and dynamic figure the greens have to get the youth vote out is silly.
The best electorate seats the greens have would be Wellington central Dunedin north (if labour pulled out they’d vote green in a heartbeat) and banks peninsula (I can see Eugene doing really well with the eccentric rich people out there if labour pulls out)
Other than that I agree. Chloe should be up and down NZ going wherever the kids and students are not cooped up in moderate suck central. We’ll see though