6 Months until 2023 election – Political Battlefield Analysis Special
The next election is 6 months away on Saturday, 14 October 2023.
Luxon is still saying things and then backtracking 24 hours later, Labour is having defections after Ministerial sackings, the Greens are making intersectional fighting an art form while ACT keeps promising terrible right wing knee jerks that will strip the country of regulation allowing a mad max apocalyptic free market terror to sweep the land.
NZ First roared about Waka Jumping and then went back to sleep.
IRD told NZ capitalism was rigged for the rich and the rich said they would all leave to go elsewhere if we didn’t cherish them and most people said, ‘don’t let the door hit you in the arse’.
It was another month where everything broke down and reminded us how underfunded the infrastructure is and why are Banks still making obscene profits?
National wanted landlords to have the power to evict at will and Chris Bishop couldn’t find any Rent Advocate to pretend their new eviction rules would help renters, despite saying he had.
When you consider that in 2020 the polls were overestimating National by an average of 5.8 percentage points and underestimating Labour by 3.7 points, the election is wide open.
The question is does Chippy have the courage to bring real economic justice solutions to the table or will the election descend into a social justice culture war that only benefits National and ACT?
Here is the current Election Battlefield 2023 as TDB sees it.
LABOUR: 35% on election night
Blindsided by the defection of Meka, Chippy can be rightfully pissed that his $1b Free Trade deal with the UK has been overshadowed along with the sausage rolls.
Labour are still reeling from losing the Nashy and with the possibility of Nanaia also jumping tensions will be high between both parties, but if this is managed with dignity and respect, it will show voters Māori Party and Labour can work together.
Labour’s response to the IRD report has been as underwhelming as Today FM, they still need to front and surprise with a big policy or they are toast.
Labour had become bogged down in believing bureaucratic changes in the background was a means of delivering outcomes rather than actually raising taxes and paying for more social infrastructure!
Now Chippy has burnt off all the unpopular woke policy, he has to actually deliver on free public transport, free dental, free breakfasts and lunches in schools and more tax from the rich.
The rebuild from the cyclone demands more than the usual, A Ministry of Green Works must be back on the agenda!
AAAP reports 120 000 kids are still living in homes who experience material hardship and CPAG once again point out that while they stats are damning, the truth is actually far worse…
“The trouble is, of the almost 9,000 households surveyed in this data, there was no inclusion of our most vulnerable families. Families living in motels and other emergency accommodation, as well as cars and other forms of homelessness were not included,” Prof Emeritus Asher said.
“The real picture is likely to be a lot more grim as anecdotal evidence suggests the numbers of families in these dire situations is on the increase.”
“We also know poverty is a driver of preventable hospitalisations, which is another reason to urgently address child poverty, for the sake of our overburdened health system.”
…the problem is that corporate consultants get in the ear of Governments and convince them to target welfare rather than provide left wing universalism because to fund left wing universalism you need to tax the rich.
If all Chippy is offering is ‘let them eat pie’, how different is that from National’s ‘Let them eat cake’?
Currently you could buy Labour a large red van, call them Pat and they still couldn’t fucking deliver!
NATIONAL: 35% on election night, 30% if these two keep dancing
Started the month wanting to evict renters at will and ended it wanting to bond Nurses and widvives.
It’s been a rollercoaster.
Auckland Conference was bland…
…spent most of the month quietly defending rich people from being taxed more.
Probably did enough to not roll Luxon for another 30 days.
ACT: 15%
Spent the month promising terrible cut backs in social spending without anyone really noticing.
The announcement that Brooke van Velden will challenge National Party God Boy Simon O’Connor for the deeply safe Tamaki Auckland electorate over shadowed Luxon because of what it says about the fight on the right this election.
The Right have had dangerously accurate polling that details the resentment Aucklanders feel towards Labour thanks to the lock down and that resentment has turned some electorates into actual ACT majorities.
Tamaki is one such Auckland electorate.
Brooke in comparison to O’Connor is full charged electric car vs a broken wheelchair. She is a candidate of surprising quality and beating a National Party boiled ham like O’Connor is absolutely possible.
It shows how confident ACT are going into 2023 and the deeper polarisation that isn’t being appreciated by the mainstream media.
GREENS: 6% (+ 2 electorates) on election night
Ever since the 2022 GreenParty rule changes that allowed the more crazy woke informal factions to gain voting rights, the woke clique inside the Greens have played games to maximise their identity candidates.
We saw this with Dr Kerekere being rewarded such a high listing in the first round of candidate list rankings.
Kerekere accidentally messaged co-conspirators in the now infamous crybaby message and the whole ruse was outed and we’ve seen the factions fighting ever since.
The GreenLeft Network wouldn’t understand the words ‘Green’, ‘Left’ or ‘Network’. These are the same amateurs who were breadcrumbed into a minefield and tricked by Matthew Hooton into launching a coup against James Shaw with no actual candidate lined up to replace him!
These are checkers players playing chess and failing.
Marama and James have been failures at leadership and their combined weakness is why the new uber woke clique believe they can challenge them for the leadership.
Sources claim it is Kerekere who has been dragging the investigation with stalling tactics so she can stall this all the way to the election.
To paraphrase Lincoln, a sustainable eco village divided can not stand.
Kerekere’s ambition is far greater than her actual talent and that is a problem that plagues all the GreenLeft Networks Top 10 candidate list.
They are terribly weak candidates who would do more damage to our side than the Right.
TDB has been very vocal about who members should list, based on who we believe are capable MPs who can force the change this country so urgently needs.
Those Top 5 are
1: Chloe
2: Golriz
3: Julie Anne Genter
4: Efeso Collins
5: Steve Able
Māori Party – 5% + 4 electorates
The more feral the anti-Māori rhetoric gets, the more votes the Māori Party gain. They have a real shot at 4 electorates this year and their staunch policy like GST off food and military neutrality have a lot that left wing Pakeha will party vote for. They have a real chance of being the Kingmaker can could generate an MMP overhang making out more difficult for ACT and National to get a majority. Watch the way JT and David Seymour squared off on The Working Group last week to see there is no love lost between the two.
Part of this surge in support is demographics, Māori are a decade younger than Pakeha, part of it is the reconnection with civics the vaccination drive provided and part is the grotesque racism spewed out over co-governance and 3 Waters.
Māori represent the highest proportion of non voters, and the race baiting rhetoric is dragging those non voters over to being engaged, something we haven’t seen in the past.
If the Māori Party can hold up their Party vote they will become the King maker and the relationship between Māori Party President JT and Labour Māori Caucus leader Willie Jackson will become the most important one politically.
NZF 4% + Northland electorate
Winston’s State of the Nation was Aotearoa New Zealand (without the Aotearoa).
It was a good speech to the Party faithful in Howick, well attended. He can still draw a crowd.
He was funny, he was mischievous, he ranted against Māori elites, demanded an end to Government Departments using Māori names and made some jokes about identity.
Classic Winnie.
Problem was that it just seems very tired now.
If you really hate Māori aspiration, you are voting ACT because you know David Seymour means it when he says he will disband Māori Government Agencies.
Winston is selling a watered down Redneck brew. Is that enough in such polarised times with a far larger youth voting demographic?
I’m not sure to be honest.
What we actually needed from Winston was a back to basic focus on infrastructure in the provinces and a demand to rebuild using some big new ideas.
He should have been arguing for a new Ministry of Works.
He should have been arguing for a stronger foreign policy to counter Chinese and American influence.
He should have been talking about a Bank tax and making sure NZ Corporations who are benefiting are returning more back into the community.
We needed the fearless Winston who championed classic Think Big Muldoonism.
Instead we get Government Departments not using Māori names?????
Thankfully the fear of the Left having actual power has terrified the big donors of the right and they are sinking cash into Shane Jones tilt in Northland because if he wins, NZ First sub 5% vote comes with him.
TOP – Ilam + list Coat tail
The Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji has a chance of winning Ilam now Gerry Brownlee has stood down. Sarah Pallett won the seat in 2020 during Labour’s red wave, but Manji was competitive against Gerry back in 2017. If Manji can steal the seat off Pallett and against a weak National newbie, TOP could enter Parliament AND bring in 2 MPs off the Party list.
TOP are talking about Housing and the political tax impasses that prevent Housing from being built, if they can convince the public that he can win in Ilam, then a vote for TOP isn’t wasted. If Labour were smart they would consider talking to TOP and offering them an Epsom deal in Ilam.
Sub 5% Feral Antivax God Squad vote – NOTHING!
The good news is that Brian’s current umbrella of Sue Grey’s antivaxxers and his Destiny Church QGod squad aren’t nearly enough to get over 5%. However if they added Matt King’s vanity project and the anti abortion New Conservatives, that cavalcade of political circus freaks could get over 5%.
Thankfully they are all toxic narcissists who couldn’t work together if their lives depended upon it, if they do though, don’t underestimate how many feral Qanon antivaxers who have been brainwashed by social media hate algorithms there really are out there.
SPECIALS:
I think you will have so many people voting who don’t normally vote that the specials will be huge on the day, this, along with the unpredictable overseas vote this election could throw any election night result out the window when the specials and overseas votes are counted.
OVERSEAS VOTE:
The MIQ over subscription by tens of thousands hints at the incandescent rage many of our diaspora felt trying to get back into their legal home country during the Covid lockout.
There is no way their torture won’t have political ramifications.
Last election Greens did poorly in their usually high overseas support vote because Ardern’s global stardom eclipsed the Greens, this election however the frustration is directly at Jacinda’s policies so I think the Greens will take that vote back and then some.
Our diaspora are furious and if the Green Party rhetoric is too moderate for their anger, ACTs throw-open-the-borders-and-let-the-freed-market-decide-death policy is for you.
ACTs policy has the whiff of judgmental vengeance to it that is the perfect cocktail of payback people locked out of their own home want to inflict on those refusing to open the door.
My guess is that our diaspora are far more motivated to vote in 2023 than we have ever considered and their anger at being locked out will be sharp.
DEMOGRAPHICS & HIGHER PARTICIPATION RATE:
This will be the first election in NZ history where Millennials and Gen Xers are a larger numerical voting block than Boomers, because lockdown impacted so many, I think people who normally sit voting out will have a real passion to make their voice heard, even if that voice is an anguished scream of fear and nonsense.
POLITICAL POLARISATION:
Because the Political spectrum is so hung and the polarisation so extreme, nothing is being collectively done to solve the myriad of problems we are facing post-Covid from crime, to cost of living crisis, to climate change, to inequality and poverty. No big ideas and no real solutions to the challenges we are collectively facing as New Zealanders.
Our focus is on hating the person who offended us on social media. I just don’t think we comprehend what a distortion of reality Social Media generates and the new subjective rage it manufactures.
We will end up with a result both sides will refuse to accept if they lose.
PREDICTION:
Watching the remarkable push back from the lobbyists the rich have put out to talk down any tax justice against them has reminded us class is the fundamental fault line in NZ and identity politics are simply a distraction.
The woke are great at organising a ‘free-the-nipple’ rally for militant vegan queer ally mommy bloggers, not so good at challenging the neoliberal economic hegemony.
With National wanting to give landlords eviction rights in time to house the predicted explosion of 100 000 new exploitable migrant workers due here over the next 12 months into our current housing crisis and infrastructure gridlock, we have class warfare this election and none of the political vocabulary to articulate it because ‘Pure Trans Joy’ is as good as the woke got.
With the looming economic recession, the electorate will turn to the Left for our solutions and will find the Left cancelling people for misusing pronouns and hate speech.
The poor will hate us for our aesthetic left virtue signalling when they can’t buy food.What’s the point of Bread and Butter politics if people can’t afford the fucking Bread or Butter?
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If Labour get 35% then they will have to bleed that either from the Greens or TPM. But not from anywhere else.
Chippys bread and butter marketing slogan was pure Labour, great announcement followed by virtually nothing of substance. He was Labour’s last hope but it turns out he’s a dud.
Achievements,
No ethanol in fuel. Robertson’s employment insurance on hold. That’s it.
Non achievements
Top of the list, 3 Waters version 2. The first was bad, Chippy knew it, but what did he deliver? Worse! It marked an end to what symbolises democracy, one person one vote. McAnulty, whose star was just starting to rise did a Hindenburg, with a bullshit laden rationale to justify it.
Bread and Butter – how does adding 30 cents per litre in the thick of a cost of living crisis help anyone? It will surely stimulate inflation which will cause another interest rate jump.
Bus fares to double, and trains, if anyone still bothers with them.
Car prices continue to rise as a direct result of Wood fucking around with Tesla taxes in the new car market. It’s like a unco submissive bull in a china shop.
Registration and tolls to rise. Michael hates the ordinary man, who used to Labour’s key voter, ironically!
Then there’s the now inherent instability of this government shedding MP’s from a Prime Minister down, the Fenton St housing policy, the Michael Hill Jewellers plywood symbolised law and order nightmare we are living in or the failing hot mess of a health system.
So does this status quo of hopelessness of incompetent Labour plus ultra woke white male hating/hate each other Greens or the grifting – turn up to work occasionally – super entitled race party TPM get two ticks or the personality blackhole of National and the urban liberal lefts Antichrist, ACT? We are long past the point where the alternatives cannot be worse than the current government or its post election possibilities, which look even worse.
I expect NZ First to poll over 5 because the jury were out on Chippy and votes with NZF went back to Labour during their deliberations, but now they’re back in, a change of government is certain, regardless.
Good stuff Bomber.
I think that Raf Manji can win in Ilam, he has better name recognition that Pallet and is a very smart cookie. I think it would be good to get TOP in the mix.
Te Pati Maori – I hope they are the King makers, I heard JT say that not taxing the rich would be a deal breaker. Thank goodness, it is one of the most important things that needs to happen. They really need all the Maori seats back where they belong.
I am always sickened by the vote that Labour get in South Auckland it is so undeserved. Can anyone tell me anything Labour have done over the years for the 3 most deprived seats in the country, possibly four now.
National 40
Labour 30
Act 15 2 seats
Greens 5 1 seat
TPM 3 seats
NZF 4 no seats
All the others nothing.
Right wing government coming in and get the country back on track.
National 40 where from?
Tax the rich…
Political polarisation, Martyn.
The Disinformation Project is in the news again with a new report
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/131936575/most-violent-targeting-of-any-community-the-aftermath-of-posie-parkers-visit
The story about violent targeting seems to editorialised with photos taken a small, peaceful “women’s rights” rally.
ACT to lose Epsom, fall out of parliament thankfully.
Can’t see either Labour or National getting 35%. Labour 29.5%…yes a 2 in front of it. National about 33 or 34%.
Seems to be a lot of frustration in voter land on both sides of politics. All those frustrated votes won’t land with Labour or National.
My rough prediction right now (can and prob will change)
Labour: 33% and 29 Electorates (42 Seats)
National: 32% and 34 Electorates (41 Seats)
ACT: 13% and 2 Electoates (17 Seats)
Green: 9% and 2 Electorates (12 Seats)
Maori: 4% and 4 Electorates (5 Seats)
TOP: 2.5% and 1 Electorate (3 Seats)
NZ First: 4% and 0 Electoates (0 Seats)