6 months out from Election: National fading, Labour stalling, NZ First about to go nuclear & Green failure
6 months out from the 2017 election and how are each of the Political Party’s fairing?
Political Party Challenges:
NATIONAL – current polling 46%
National are fading. Looking at the past 3 elections, National 6 months out from an election generally over poll by anywhere as much as 5-7 points so they are looking at 40% this election. Bill English hasn’t been a retail politician for a long time, and isn’t the natural at glad-handing the Mall voters with the skill Key was able to and while Paula Bennett is loved by the Nets, she is a hate figure to most of the country. So Dull and Loathed isn’t much of a leadership team.
National stand to be hit from three sides this time. One of National’s successes was with women voters. They seemed to love John Key and while his policies would have been most damaging to them, they just kept voting for him. Bill English and Paula Bennett don’t have the same appeal to these female voters, but they do find themselves liking Jacinda Ardern, which is why National went on the attack against her recently. Jacinda is taking female voters away from National and that will hurt them.
Th other front National are about to be hit from is NZ First. The provinces are going into revolt and the suburbs are grid locked, Winston is going to launch a nuclear attack on immigration and Maori ‘Privilege’ that are music to the ears of rump National Party voters. Bill English is a wide eyed free market acolyte but he’s not a bigot and he’s not going to be able to counter Winston’s nuclear attack.
Internally Judith Collins is preparing for a National Party loss and will be waging an immediate guerrilla campaign for the leadership if National lose. Expect her to try and make a pitch to Winston Peters if Bill English refuses a deal.
LABOUR – current polling 30.2%
Labour are stalling in the polls and that’s a dangerous thing to allow happen. Labour haven’t been able to press forward any narrative because Andrew is in bloody Court fighting a defamation case. That’s left Labour flat footed.
There is policy being cooked up in the back rooms that should be able to excite voters, but the political managers of Labour are pushing to water it all down so as to not spook the markets. There is a complacency creeping into Labour and they haven’t even won the bloody election yet. The strategy is to wait until the election is closer to start rolling policy out, I think that’s unwise. Winston is going to dominate the electoral coverage and news oxygen once he starts his nuclear war, Labour need to be talking to the Country about new policy ideas now to build up enough of a buffer to withstand Winston’s whirlwind.
The Leadership team of Andrew and Jacinda however is so popular with the voters Labour need to win over to have a chance of forming the next Government that they represent Labour’s best chance of winning in 3 elections. They should be using that popularity now rather than trying to speak in the din of war.
GREENS – current polling 11.7%
Who thought this was a good idea?
Poor old Rod Donald must be rolling in his grave. It looks like a Young Nats ball photo.
It’s Gaia with a vajazzle.
The Greens face their biggest threat this election and still don’t seem to see it coming. NZ First has a real chance of over taking the Greens as the third largest political party and if that happens all they will get are crumbs from the table.
The membership have wisely decided to get new young blood into the Party but these candidates still need to be given high placement if the Greens are to activate the only electorate they can make real gains from, the youth vote. Under 30s have the lowest voter turn out and the Greens could make real gains here if that electorate saw candidates they related to. It’s not good enough for the Greens to put these candidates on the fringes of list entry, they need to champion them if they are to look authentic to that electorate.
The real challenge for the Greens this election will be on how they handle the tactics Winston is going to employ. His looming attacks on Maori and immigration are going to be too much for Green activists who will be demanding denouncements of the highest magnitude from their Green MPs. There has been some incredibly poor strategy and media management from the Greens since Andrew Campbell left, it is an open question if they have the skills to navigate the pressure cooker of this election.
NZ FIRST – current polling 7.8%
The old silver fox of NZ politics must be licking his lips in anticipation because the current political landscape has never been better for his nationalist rhetoric. This election Winston will out Trump Trump. NZ First have the ability to benefit in the past from Labour vote collapse, but this time around I think he will benefit from a National Party vote collapse.
Don Brash and his racist provincial bandwagon touring the countryside trying to scare the bejesus out of National Party voting white farmer types with stories of Maori privilege are far larger attended than is being acknowledged. Don’s taken to advising the participants that they should vote for Winston this election because National are too dependent on the Maori Party to stop this supposed ‘privilege’.
Add to this the building fury at the stresses of National’s mass immigration policy and Winston is perfectly placed to reap this anger with a nuclear styled attack on Immigration and Maori ‘privilege’. He’ll make ruling out the Maori Party from Government one of his bottom lines which would draw in the angry white provincial vote and the rhetoric he will choose to attack immigration will ensure wall to wall media coverage and lots of ‘someone had to say it’ type justifications.
NZ First has every chance of over taking the Greens this election. The only threat to a NZ First explosion in the Polls would be Winston suddenly being struck down by God.
MAORI PARTY – current polling 2.4%
Once Winston releases his bottom line that no Government he serves in will have the Maori Party, they will struggle to find relevance and a justification for people to vote for them. While they stand a good chance of winning Maori electorates because of the treaty with MANA, their Party vote will take a hit. It should get Marama Fox in but they face total alienation from the political process once Winston enforces his bottom line.
UNITED FUTURE – current polling .2%
If there is a God, Greg O’Connor will beat Dunne and this will shut down one possible National Party ally. O’Connor is getting good response at local meetings and is handling the role extremely well. Dunne should be concerned.
ACT – current polling .4%
Seymour will win his seat, and might be able to appeal to the migrant community as a champion for them while Winston is going on the rampage by making a principled stand against the xenophobia about to be unleashed. ACT could get a second MP if Seymour navigates it well.
TOP – current polling .4%
The problem for TOP has been a lack of media oxygen and platform for Gareth Morgan. He is easily their greatest asset and can argue the issues well, but he has no platform other than Twitter to do that, and with Twitter being ultra liberal, he just ends up getting in fights with snarks. TOP must do more direct live streaming media to give Morgan the platform he needs to be able to showcase his intellect, that way he is at least challenging the political narrative and creating his own oxygen. While 5% at this stage is highly unlikely, TOP could still impact the debate if they sort out their online media campaign.
MANA – current polling .2%
Hone is unhappy with the Maori Party Land Bill, if things can be sorted over that, he stands a solid chance of retaking Te Tai Tokerau.
The biggest indicator for a genuine desire for change came last week from two Horizon Polls.
The first is how there is a change of sentiment amongst the 2014 and 2017 electorate…
…in the 2014 election, 56% wanted a National led Government, this time 54% want a Labour led Government. That’s a clear signal for change. The second interesting thing is that 77% of NZ First voters want a Labour led Government…
…if NZ First does hold the balance of power, their own members overwhelmingly want Labour to lead the Government. The caveat to that is NZ First are about to drag in a large number of National voters this time around.
I think the 2017 election will be close and won on the margins, but if there is a change of Government, the most likely outcome will be a Labour-NZ First minority Government with the Greens in supply and confidence for a couple of Ministry positions.
UPDATE:
Brothers and Sisters, Matthew Hooton agreeing with me is officially the breaking of the 7th seal of the Apocalypse.
…the GREENS are not even wearing green for Christs sake! look like corporates at a ball ….The Greens have been taken over by aliens…PATHETIC!…BLOODY WANKERS!
…a more unalike Earth Worshipping group I can not imagine
…maybe NZF should start looking like farmers and trampers and fish and gamers…and scoop out the Green vote?
Oh if only they’d worn Green!
Change your handle to Green Buzzard, that might help.
What is interesting is that they agreed to this demeaning photo in the first place.
It shows the Greens are serious about winning and that on balance is a good thing.
Labour.
Forget the idea that policy release is the ticket to winning.
When Sledge Hammer used to bring out his Magnum and say “Trust Me I know What I’m Doing” that should have been a mantra for all aspiring politicians.
There are certain professions where absolute conviction and rock solid assurance counts for a great deal. Airline Pilots, Brain Surgeons, Criminal Defence Lawyers, Investment Consultants….but top of the list are those wishing to become Prime Minister.
David Cunliffe fumbled on his Capital Gains policy and it was all downhill from there. That is also why successful politicians never explain and NEVER apologize. (Key and Trump being to notables but there are plenty of others.) David Cunliffe reportedly “apologized for being a man” then apologized for saying that and then apologized for going on a brief holiday. In fact it weas hard to find a news cycle when he wasn’t apologizing for something or other.
Confidence. Assurance. “I Know What I’m Doing.” It’s not only a good plan.
It’s the only game in town.
So, develop as much policy as you like (Esp Rental State Houses over “Affordable” Houses for sale to upwardly-mobile young people, for mine). But sell only yourself, Andrew.
Lastly. Don’t abandon the regions. Everyone wants to be noticed, but there are a lot of answers out there that won’t be found in metros no matter how hard you look.
re “It shows the Greens are serious about winning…”
….maybe but whose vote are they after?…the Nact corporate high income vote? ( what cloud land are they on?)
…do you seriously think this picture of them posing in corporate formal evening dress will appeal to the average New Zealand voter?
( …you know , those struggling to get housing, afford a university education and pay back their loans? …the elderly struggling to get that operation in the public hospital system, when they have been written off as better dead?)
….let alone the average Green voter?
( you know the hunting , fishing tramper type?…those concerned about rivers and people pollution?)
The Greens image is all wrong
The image was ridiculous, but if you think superficiality or an interest in an array of attractive young women is unique to the terminally anti-Green, you’re kidding yourself.
…so that is what it is about?…sex appeal of the Greens!
well we have come a long way from the original Greens!!!
…what would have Rod Donald have thought?…they were altogether more serious politicians
( and btw I am a Green voter but they probably wont get my party vote this time around)
re …never apologise “That is also why successful politicians never explain and NEVER apologize. (Key and Trump being to notables but there are plenty of others.) David Cunliffe reportedly “apologized for being a man” then apologized for saying that and then apologized for going on a brief holiday. In fact it weas hard to find a news cycle when he wasn’t apologizing for something or other.”
Yes David Cunliffe, the choice of Labour leader by the overwhelming grassroots membership of the Labour Party, certainly came in for a lot of flak for apologising ….but was it a legitimate attack on his credibility ?…or politically motivated bullying of an exceptionally able and honest politician??
Interestingly Andrew Little has been doing a lot of apologising lately…and seems to be doing a lot of apologising this morning…but I guess that is to save his bank balance and stop being sued…the courts have not necessarily finished on the defamation case brought against him
David Cunliffe was pilloried by the mainstream media for apologising for being a man when he was meeting with battered women in a Women’s Refuge …entirely appropriate I would have thought….certainly better than beating his chest and saying “I am proud to be a man”…or don’t you think so?
More men should apologise imo…the fact that they don’t is possibly due to brainwashing themselves that their God is a male…and they take it as a God – given right to warmonger and not apologise.
The sooner we get over these man made myths and more men apologise the better
If there is a God, Greg O’Connor will beat Dunne and this will shut down one possible National Party ally.
Out of the frying pan and straight into the fire. On balance, and this something I never thought I’d say, but I prefer Dunne’s lame kowtowing over O’Connor’s jackbooted militarised police policy. Oh, and BTW, there is no god.
I was dismayed to hear Andrew Little parroting McCully last night on the news suggesting that you can understand Trump carrying out an illegal attack on Syria without UNSC resolution and approval. Apparently it is okay to attack a sovereign country without any evidence of them committing what they are accused of because Trump saw some pictures of some poor babies.
There are many, many more pictures of dead babies in Yemen and Mosul that the US and it’s allies are responsible for but that we ignore.
If Little does not distance himself from the war mongering National party and show some courage in an independent stand against US hegemony his polling figures today will be the best he will see.
We do not want a National-lite government.
Unfortunately, as a Labour voter, I have to say you are right. For goodness’ sake Labour, stand up and be counted on matters of principle.
I gave up on Andrew Little and Labour long ago…the guy is an idiot
Meh. Take off the rabbit ears. Officail versions of Andrew Littles personality, ie national sell media a spirited story is political fairy dust. People like you think cafe wairesses ask for it like. Oh john car keys, pull my pony tale. Thats a fucken idiot
Totally agree – Labour needs to rebrand itself as a party of peace not war! Seeing the Tony Blair and his supporters braying for war every two minutes, like Hillary Clinton – that’s why voters don’t want those ‘left’ parties in power.
If anybody hasn’t already guessed I don’t know how many voters want a neoliberal, free trade worshiper, pro immigration. pro war, pro taxes ‘left party’.
It really surprises me, that Labour around the world can’t ‘get it’.
If you believe in neoliberal, free trade, pro immigration. pro war you voter for the right. Just adding in additional taxes paid for by middle classes isn’t really a vote changer for the left!!!
Now they have their new right anti immigration, pro war parties like Trump.
The left are static and declining in voters because the voters want an
anti neoliberal, pro local trade, anti neoliberal immigration and anti war party that won’t tax the local’s to death.
It’s really that simple.
Bloody well called Martyn, I cant fault it.
You are so right the provinces are so over Nactioinal and I cant find anyone who backs them in around the east coast with the way they have turned their back against the East Coast that is sliding now, at the expense of Government pouring money into the “Golden Triangle of Tauranga, Rotorua, Hamilton.
NatZ are just a bunch of pork belly politicians nothing else.
Our Gisborne rail fight is still five years without any restoration for rail services between HB & Gisborne and the latest is that Government favour a cycleway and Kiwirail has agreed, and the late4st Gisborne Herald poll out Friday shows over 80% of 700 respondents want rail train services not a bloody cycleway.
So Nactional will loose seats up here obviously.
English/Joyce should have listened to us all along but failed, that is the attitude hat will sink National.
OUR LETTER PUBLISHED
Gisborne herald.
“Wrong way Kiwirail.” Ist April 2017.
Kiwi rail’s sudden announcement it has made a decision to give access to a rail bike venture today 30/3/17 shutting out Gisborne from any freight and passenger/tourism access requires scrutiny firstly, since it appears rushed without notifying other interested bids made.
Kiwirail makes a blunder by refusing to engage with all Maori, & Community groups affected prior to give our rail access to Auckland origin “rail bike venture”.
On reflection Kiwirail in 2013/14 treated the HBRC very badly when it refused to offer that large powerful Council more than three months time over that Xmas to provide a solid robust business plan.
HBRC has never recovered from that crushing treatment by Kiwirail, as they had an airtight backing for complete rail services/funds to maintain the line & interest from HBRC to work with other parties to allow other uses as a bike trails and other ventures to enhance the whole region, without sacrificing anyone’s interest here.
Best decision Kiwirail could have made, Kiwirail makes solid money for the overburdened taxpayer as since rail closed in 2012, road costs are spiralling out of control.
Kiwirail held every other interested party in compete dark, refused consultation with any party except the Rail bike interested party, so now we can draw a reasonable conclusion that this was Kiwirail’s plan all the time, not consider any rail services at all so we need to have this lack of consideration for the community affected by their callous decision examined legally.
To ignore repeated requests from community groups and Maori for proper consultation given ahead of any decision.
Kiwirail have breached their own State Owned Enterprise Act obligations under section 4(1) (C) of the SOE act which states;
(C) An organisation that exhibits a sense of social responsibility by having regard to the interests of the community in which it operates and by endeavouring to accommodate or encourage when able to do so.
Kiwirail must now carry out this responsibility before signing off that “agreement” to meet with all those in those groups in communities they operate and consider what is in their best interest here, never mind not even considering consulting with the land owners who allowed the rail line access across their tribal land years ago!
I am not a lawyer but Kiwirail have in my mind have blundered and made the wrong move right here, as my last comment 14.12.16, “Kiwirail prefers to use stealth” decisions to avoid conflicts such as we have now again.
Much dissention will result by ignoring the will of the people over what appears Kiwirail’s way of avoiding responsibility for providing a urgently needed rail freight and passenger/tourism service to the most isolated regional city/community in the country when we just witnessed Kiwirail restore two south Island rail routes in a heartbeat.
A Gisborne herald article August 23, 2016 entitled “Labour-Greens united on rail” said ‘Wrong government in place’ to make rail a reality” now clear evidence of this exists so election time to rid the rail hating politics for our community good.
In coming weeks we will see a backlash to Kiwirail’s blunder under direction of a rail hating government.
It is clear that no other bidders for the rail at this time were even given any discussion or consultation ahead of today’s decision, a bad act of faith from Kiwirail to our community.
Dark forces are emerging here, but we will never give up until full rail services are restored to Gisborne.
No consultation/communication from Kiwirail came even to explain why our bid failed?
No reply either to our NGO who offering Kiwirail in community Environmental monitoring issues for free?
Poor professional process here.
Nobody likes being ignored!!!!!
+100 CLEANGREEN…bring back the clean green affordable rail
Winston will get close to 15-20% of the party vote a lot of people have had enough of the last 30-40 years of neoliberal nonsense.
+100 JACK…hope so!
Where do the Green Party stand on intensification in Auckland via the Unitary Plan, and support for privatisation via Public-Private-Partnerships (PPPs)?
Chloe Swarbrick supported both as a fellow 2016 Auckland Mayoral candidate.
Looking forward to a straight answer to this straight question, so that the voting public can ‘cast an informed vote’.
Penny Bright
Proven anti-privatisation / anti-corruption campaigner.
GO PENNY!…
Greens need to ditch Chloe, she didn’t agree with anything Green for fucks sake in her Mayoral campaign – where she came a distant third.
In the piclooks like Chloe (in the centre of course) is about to push Metiria off the podium – picture tells 1000 words – that is what the right wingers want – young malleable ‘career greenies’ to take over the party.
Who’s missing is the new real Greenies with credentials and public spirit, Barry Coates, Marama Davidson and where is the young, Gareth Hughes… people known for their principles on fairness?
Meh. No big numbers for any seriously progressive parties.
So the handcart to hell will careen on it’s merry way regardless. The elite will continue to sleep easy, and the hobbits continue to trudge wearily to and from work, carefully avoiding stepping on the homeless.
Sincerely hope NOT….sincerely hope that “any seriously progressive parties”…the ‘Left’ so-called …can cobble something together to keep the Nact robbers at bay
The current highest polling so-called left party is yet to fully renounce neoliberalism.
Until I see the main players actively campaigning on the repudiation of Rogernomics and all that it entails, I won’t get too excited.
And to be honest, that’s a bare minimum threshold for excitement, given that capitalism per se seems to reaching it’s natural conclusion. The elites are squeezing hard for those profits these days, and if it wasn’t for Ponzi economics in the financial system, then the era of capitalism may well have been ushered to a close some time ago.
Climate change may force change, but of course we missed the bus some time ago to do anything meaningful about preventing it’s worst effects. Not entirely unexpected, given the capitalist mantra is the very antithesis of environmental protection.
So things aren’t looking too flash, and a National-lite coalition won’t effect the fundamental change that needs to happen.
…agree sadly…but I want to see NACT thrashed
First, for those that are not aware, Pewdiepie is a youtuber with 54 million subs (subscribers) which means lor, which is oower scailing so his word pretty much instruct the entire youtube community. This is some of his commentary that has cross over, a vlog vs blog cross over ( Ok, just got sick of mansplaining internet etiquette, any questions just ask)
Some commentary: The Advertising apocalypse pulls ads from youtube, its so triggering shots go wide because media no longer portray reality.
Sauce: https://youtu.be/Gglbg8CAxyM
Most New Zealanders are sheep so will follow instructions from the Nanny NZ Herald and Mike Hoskins on TV One, voters in Epsom will follow instructions from Bill English and will vote as instructed, keeping the Roger Douglas/Alan Gibbs neoliberal agenda boiling.
Meanwhile the sleepy hobbits will remain lying on their couches doing nothing watching the world go by.
Hopefully Winston NZF can get enough votes to make a meaningful change to this country.
Most New Zealanders are sheep so will follow instructions from the Nanny NZ Herald and Mike Hoskins on TV One, voters in Epsom will follow instructions from Bill English and will vote as instructed, keeping the Roger Douglas/Alan Gibbs neoliberal agenda boiling.
Meanwhile the sleepy hobbits will remain lying on their couches doing nothing watching the world go by.
Hopefully Winston NZF can get enough votes to make a meaningful change to this country.
What I observe is all rather depressing. We may perhaps have a change of government, but it will be so narrowly ‘won’, the new government will feel it has to tread so carefully in whatever it may do or propose, so not to upset the business and banking lobbies.
That means we will only get something like ‘National Light’, nothing much progressive and able to address important issues effectively.
Winston will not work with the Greens, so he has a choice:
1. Be part of a majority government with National, or
2. Be part of a minority Government which depends on the Greens.
You would have to be in dreamland to believe that Winston would choose option 2.
Winston will not work with the Maori Party, so he has a choice:
1. Be part of a majority government with Labour and the Greens or
2. Be part of a minority Government which depends on the Maori Party.
You would have to be in dreamland to believe that Winston would choose option 2.
Bloody awesome, Bert !!!
🙂
Sorted that shit out good and proper !
Voter turnout will be interesting, I predict it will be low. A record low perhaps?
I for one am fed-up with the increasingly hopeless and obscene freak show that is politics.
Unless one has wealth, it seems voting is merely consenting to some peculiar form of abuse.
Agree with Bomber about National – the party is fading.
However with Labour I think they are right to keep their policies under cover so they won’t be manipulated by the Natz like last time.
I think Labour have a good chance of winning. They need to gather the homeowners and unite them with the other groups they talk about all the time, homeless, poor, Maori and renters. Voters at the bottom are not good voting bets for various reasons while ignoring the mainstream vote who have their own issues with rising costs of living, climate changes, environmental degradation, declining wages, declining health budgets and schools, BUT have their house which is rising in value so is their buffer.
The Natz have run everything down, piled on debt and to continue to vote for them will mean more corruption, more user pays, more charter schools, more privatisation and more crime. Fundamentally the Natz are reducing local’s quality of life and their future so they can sell off the country. Labour have never really made that clear.
Labour/Greens also need to unite the homeless, poor, Maori and renters and actually start making plans to unite them and get them to the voting booth. That’s how Obama won. Friends took friends along to vote. If you don’t have a car, job and things are not going well, it’s easy to give up, these people need to be energised that they are important and should have their say and stick it to the Natz.
The Greens should be cleaning up with more voters, but again have lost focus on the environmental side and gone in against homeowners who mostly support them. It’s the more affluent that have the time to worry about the environment, and nature. The Greens get generous donations too – more than Labour and NZ First because ultimately when you are not fighting for every $$ you understand the importance of stuff you can’t buy. Greens need to walk away from their pro development stance and understand that neoliberalism is propped up by lazy immigration all around the world. Yep I know we are all equal in all in the eyes of the Greens, but that does not mean opening up the borders to exploitation and pretty much people trafficking under the Natz for cheap labour and money laundering through our property. It’s got to stop and focus on what’s local now. Uncompetitive easy going Kiwi people are pretty much going to go the way off our native species when opened up to competition i.e. displaced and extinct – Greens need to focus on that. Aotearoa!
NZ First should be going after the Natz votes with a vengeance! Like Northland they should be asking the voters like farmers and those in the provinces to ‘send the government a message’! why should the government with foreign companies be taking over our farms, assets and water. That will be where they clean up!
NZ First, Labour and Greens should collaborate for the change of government and run under that banner.
Mana will hopefully return Hone Hawawira to parliament because he deserves to be there.
And I hope the rest of the minor parties die out!