Winston needs political oxygen to pretend he can go with Labour or National, so he’s complaining about the Free trade deal with India.
NZ needs to diversify away from China because Chinese trade comes with as many fish hooks as free trade does with America, but how is the solution signing a Trade deal with India who are becoming more authoritarian with their Nationalist religious fervour?
Modi’s Government is very prepared to use all sorts of dirty tactics to attack his political enemies and his whipping up of anti-Muslim rhetoric is a real concern.
Moving away from Communist China to get closer to an openly racist India doesn’t seem like much of a strategic move, especially when India’s interest is not in our trade but in gaining more Indian migrant workers access to NZ.
NZ already has a huge problem with exploiting Indian migrant workers, how is opening that up more with little in return a win for NZ?
As the ever brilliant Professor Jane Kelsey points out…
“When the Prime Minister announced he would secure a free trade agreement (FTA) with India during the term of this government he scored another own goal. India, with whom New Zealand had spent many previous years in futile negotiations for a FTA, knew it could simply dictate the terms to a government desperate for a political trophy”, according to Auckland University Professor Emeritus of law Jane Kelsey, who closely follows India’s trade negotiations.
“Today’s announcement that a worthwhile deal has been sealed in just eight months and a handful of negotiating rounds, needs to be taken with a sack of salt”,
Kelsey notes that the government’s announcement comes with no means of verification.
“There is no public text and very little information has been released throughout the short negotiation. So, there is no way to independently assess the government’s claims. Nor do we know that India will actually see agreement this through to ratification and implementation.”
Given New Zealand’s relative insignificance, India’s Ministers and negotiators will have sought precedents they can press on countries of far greater significance, such as securing guaranteed access for its migrant workforce, while avoiding concessions that would set a bad precedent and create political problems, such as granting market access concessions for New Zealand’s dairy products that would antagonise its tens of millions of politically-active dairy farmers.
In parallel, India been more been focused on other international priorities, including FTAs with the European Union, United Kingdom (UK) and Canada, and its pivotal role in the deeply troubled World Trade Organization.
The minimal outcomes of those negotiations show put promises of tangible gains for New Zealand into perspective.
The UK and India, the world’s fifth and sixth largest economies, concluded a FTA in July 2025 after three and a half years and 15 rounds of negotiations. The UK’s own impact assessment predicts a derisory increase to its gross GDP of 0.13%, or £4.8 billion “in the long run”, with 0.06% or £45.1 billion for India.[1]
Professor Kelsey called for evidence-based public debate and engagement before any further negotiations are launched that sink scarce public resources into what have become little more than political notches on the government’s belt.
…Winston won’t agree to this deal because migrant labour is a favourite target for his redneck followers, so why is Labour supporting a mass immigration Free Trade Deal with India?
Because Labour see the votes in it. The Indian/Kiwi electorate is large in NZ and any Party seen as favourable will pick up votes.
This isn’t about free trade, this is about guaranteeing access for Indian workers into NZ.
This is going to become an ugly political football.
The easiest way for Labour to avoid the ugliness is by demanding an extra amendment which is that ALL Indian migrants workers must join a Union so that they can’t be exploited.
If Labour refuses to acknowledge the problems with mass immigration and ensure ALL migrant workers join Unions to ensure they can’t be exploited. then Winston is going to ride the resentment and petty bigotry all the way to the election.
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I thought Hipkins said Labour would make a decision next year. Truly if they back this flimsy, ‘wishful thinking’ deal with India – full details still to be produced [??] – then I won’t vote for them. NZ is not India V2, and I’m not being racist in saying we already have a large number of their people living here as does much of the world. I recently read that 35.4 million Indians live outside of India! We don’t need more immigrants from any country – we can’t even provide employment to our own folk! So Hipkins, hope you are reading this – WE NEED TO HUGELY REDUCE IMMIGRATION NOT INCREASE IT! Winston will make hay with this one and still look after Winston – he can’t be depended upon. Toughen up Labour, to win this already biased and corrupt next election you will need to come up with outstanding and innovative policies. We so badly need a real committed leader with vision.
What is strangely missing in NZ media and unsurprisingly muted in the Govt stand ups is any mention that NZ in this deal removes numerical caps on Indian students. That’s right totally uncapped.
This is the first time NZ has done this with any country. What could possibly go wrong? Allowing uncapped student numbers from a nation of 1.46 Billion, and allowing them to work for up to 20 hours a week?
The way FTA’s go if you do uncapped students with one large populous country, better expect it to be demanded by others.
Will the terms of this agreement unduly restrict New Zealand’s future policy options?
While clearly beneficial to the National/Act landlord voter base increasing demand on the NZ rental market especially in Auckland, and NZ employers wanting even more cheap unskilled labour. I can’t see how this is a winner for the poorer, lower skilled, unemployed, youth and renter voters of Labour and the Greens, already struggling with unemployment, housing shortages and cost of living hardship.
IF Labour and the Greens vote this through unchecked they are letting this group of their voting base down, and for what reason? Not wanting to appear xenophobic or anti business?
The Greens Trade spokesman Lawrence Xu-Nan has told RNZ the Greens recognise New Zealand was always unlikely to get favourable dairy terms, and they are not particularly concerned about the migration provisions.
While NZ media and the govt are strangley silent about this India media are singing the praises of the deal.
From the Economic Times India
On education, New Zealand has signed an Annex on Student Mobility and Post-Study Work Visas for the first time with any country. The agreement removes numerical caps on Indian students and allows them to work for up to 20 hours a week during their studies.
Post-study work rights have been expanded to help students gain global experience. Indian students completing STEM bachelor’s and master’s degrees will be eligible for post-study work visas of up to three years, while doctoral scholars can receive post-study work visas of up to four years.
they’re neo-libs, neo libs hate community. Indian culture is hardcore divisionist, kiss bye bye to anything maori sovereignty – another problem solved for the Neo libs. Labour are already in power. Luxon’s friends told us so, to his face, when they spoke about seeing green shoots. Ask Hipkins how. Winston is way down the trail of power. He just needed a reason to sail upwind on his decrepit raft. the best thing NZ can do now is vote maori party or Green en masse – a large scale almost suicidal swandive into real life. new Zealand is so close to ended there’s little point in continuing the delusions.
Martyn – Has the Government not learnt from the fake Truck Driver licenses scam involving mostly Indian Truck drivers?
It’s the tyrant’s trope.
Aristotle says: “And it is a mark of a tyrant to have men of foreign extraction rather than citizens as guests at table and companions, feeling that citizens are hostile but strangers make no claim against him.”
Labour imagine they can weaponize claims of racism against those who point out that mass low-wage immigration is a great disservice to working New Zealanders. It’s a wolf they’ve cried far too often though, and plays into National’s incompetent paws.
When you’re losing to National, you’re not doing much of a job.
Do you not think that special Indian unions will be setup run by the upper class to make sure they retain control of the immigrants?
I tell you wot it is just not cricket not even ping pong
What else do you want Martyn.
We need to trade. You think over-reliance on China is a problem. Therefore we have to go to India. What other countries of that size and scale with a growing middle class? No country is perfect.
If you have ideas on who we should trade with come up with them. Perhaps Burundi and Outer Mongolia?
The trouble is that India does not want to buy New Zealand products. It wants to export its surplus population to New Zealand and that is what the National Party has agreed to. No free trade. Just unlimited immigration. This deal has been done because hundreds of thousands of Indian nationals already resident in New Zealand are expected to vote for it. It may make sense for the politicians but makes no sense at all for real New Zealanders.
The reason Labour hasn’t immediately opposed the India trade deal is because Labour is desperate for economic growth in order to pay for the welfare state.
Why is Labour still denying the genocide in Gaza?
This is the great political filter of our time, fail to get through this Repressive Right wing filter, fail on all other political issues.
Fail on the climate,
Fail on inequality,
Fail on tax justice
Fail on independence from AUKUS
Fail on health
Fail on education
Fail on housing
Fail to win next year’s election.
Labour Need to take a lesson from Mamdani’s election victory in New York.
Why is Labour supporting a mass immigration Free Trade Deal with India?
Next question: “Why are we supporting Labour”?
There are quite strict caps on the immigrant visa allowances in the FTA. In aggregate about 3% of total annual inwards migration.
As for students, they are being treated no differently to Chinese students. As a general rule NZ doesn’t cap student visas. Instead the Universities and Polytechnics have their own internal caps.
I do expect that this part of the FTA will get careful scrutiny in the Select Committee.
Jane, of course, has never seen a FTA she liked. She has opposed virtually every FTA that the government has ever entered into, starting with CER with Australia.
I would note that I asked Jane to take some classes in International Trade Law that I was teaching back in the early 1990’s, so that students would receive both for and against perspectives. She is extremely knowledgeable in this area, but comes from a very different perspective to myself.
So you are leaving it to the tertiary education providers to limit the number of student visas? Are you thinking that they will close their intake of new fee paying Indian students when they have so much money in their coffers that they can’t think what to do with it?
Doesn’t it strike you as odd that by putting an immigrant quota into a Free Trade Agreement the Realm of New Zealand has relinquished its sovereign right to manage immigration as it sees fit?
One might hope that would receive “careful scrutiny in the Select Committee” but given the feckless nature of colonialist politicians I think that is unlikely.
If Jane has never seen a FTA she liked it would be because she has the misfortune to live under a colonialist regime which has consistently failed to negotiate agreements that benefit our own people.
The Greens are happy with the plan from what I read in the Christchurch Press. As I do not know anyone in this organization I amhappy to be corrected.
Greens are rarely happy Trevor so thanks for the good news.
Every journey starts with a first step.
India has proven to be a country of being Rife In Corruption.
The NZ National Party has in itself also been proven to be Rife in Corruption. Where Money for Themselves are concerned they would sign a Pact with the Devil.
I wouldn’t trust a Trade Deal with India than I would ever Trust National in a Pre-election “Promise” to Keep to anything it says it would keep.
Luxon is only doing this “deal” because Luxon ONLY looks after Luxon and it may look good on his CV and who knows a potential for a knighthood.
And so if Labour approves for this ‘deal’ then be ware of what you sign for.
I think you should not ignore desperation – National have run every stupid plan in their neoliberal playbook (Economic Tricks for Clowns so Obtuse they Ignore Fifty Years of Unremitting Failure), and all they have left is mass low-wage migration.
Kind of an own goal really – instead of serving their constituents they mean to replace them with a more desperate and biddable crew unfamiliar with their long history of corruption and non-performance. (3% growth anyone? Not from these drunken monkeys).
And Labour? Labour are not a whit better.