Well it’s been a hell of a year. Catastrophic climate change storms while the Government wages a war on all environmental laws;

Vast abuses of power by our politicians as they strangle the common good for their donor’s interests;

600 000 Kiwis needing help from foodbanks each and every month;

An explosion of homelessness (manufactured from very predictable social policies),

A fake debate from a fake union between two of the biggest neoliberal economic vandals in a deadly nightshade vs poisonous hemlock cage match that is as intellectually shallow as David Seymour calling out his own name at orgasm;

Draconian welfare sanctions and culture war revenge fantasies masquerading as social policy;

Kneecapping paid parity during a cost of living crisis;

The despicable character assassination of Benjamin Doyle;

The ecstasy of the anti-treaty referendum bill protests followed by the heartbreak of the Māori Party implosion;

A fake cease fire in Gaza and appalling antisemitic atrocity in Bondi;

A forced surrender package for the Ukraine;

Another war crime genocide in Sudan;

.0001 of the population owning 3 times the wealth of the poorest 50% of humanity AND the final season of Stranger Things on Netflix.

What a year.

Oh, oh, oh PLUS the Right Honourable Winston Peters, the Foreign Minister of Aotearoa NZ, called me on Sean Plunkett’s Platform, a, and I quote, ‘Fat Retard’.

The Foreign Minister of NZ said that. A Fat Retard.

What a shakespearean word smith diplomat ole Matua Winston is eh? A true weaver of stories in the loom of the mind

You race baiting, anti-trans, anti-vaccine, cross burning, lynch mob hanging, redneck jamboree, book burning, climate denying old fart you.

Merry Christmas Winston – you remind me of the old Māori proverb, ‘the silver hyenah gleefully drinks the blood of the young while desecrating Gia” – it’s a very old Māori proverb.

Let’s examine the Political Battlefield less than one year out from the 2026 election.

Economy:

I don’t think most people appreciate how bad the economy actually is right now. We have free market capitalism cheerleaders, we don’t have economic journalists. They always have to be upbeat and optimistic to channel the animal spirits of free market capitalism. Because the NZ Herald derives so much of its income from property speculation advertising, their never ending mantra is, ‘there’s never been a better time to buy’.

The most recent GDP figures that showed a near standstill in the economy (it fell 1% GDP then gained 1.1%) is in contrast with the Half Yearly Fiscal Update which showed Debt has exploded and the pretend date of surplus is now 2030.

The Polar Ice Caps will melt before Nicola Willis gets us into surplus.

The Government have borrowed more than Labour have, (despite Labour’s excuse being a once in a century pandemic), but the extra borrowing hasn’t been for public services!

Nicola Willis is a wide eyed Free Market acolyte (which is why the pretend fight between her and Ruth Richardson is Right Wing Performance Art and the intellectual equivalence of the sound of one hand clapping). She believes with a religious fervour that if you cut back the State, the market will step in and do it cheaper.

This austerity has worked in the past because private debt was so low, it’s not working now because private debt is so high!

So while Willis has borrowed MORE than Labour, she’s borrowing it not for public services (which she has underfunded to their need), she’s borrowing it for tax cuts we can’t afford, landlord loopholes, Big Tobacco and the Oil and Gas industry!

National’s decision to smash Labour’s infrastructure pipeline last year has had a cascade impact on the whole of the Economy and they are scrambling to try and right the waka before we capsize.

New Zealand has always been 3 huge sparsely populated Islands that has always required the State to step in as the 40% foundation stone. National are trying to smash that up and hand over the funds to private interests, the way they are in Health.

The latest stats show Trucking, business investment and the delivery economy all slowing post the GDP numbers which alongside a weak retail season and more migration all spells for real trouble over a slowing first quarter of 2026.

Those green shoots of recovery are going to quickly look like the dried snot of desperation.

Society:

Social media hate algorithms have polarised society to extremes. The Left hate the Right and the Right hate the Left. The level of apologist Right Wing Trolls are prepared to go to to gloss over this Government’s appalling track record and abuses of power just to own the Left makes for a political landscape of masochism.

‘Sure-I’m-hurting-but-people-I-hate-on-social-media-are-screaming-more-in-pain-than-me’, isn’t much of a co-operative space to be in.

It is All-Tribe-No-Village politics now and if the Economy turns worse, those extremes will become more embittered.

Consider Green MP Benjamin Doyle.

They were hounded out of Office based on allegations and insinuations that they were abusing their child and was actively promoting their child to other abusers.

Jesus fucking wept!

And the ‘evidence’ for such an extreme allegation and insinuation? A blue squiggly line that was supposedly pedophilic hieroglyphics and the word ‘bussy’.

That such a false insinuation could be made is a tragedy of hysteria fuelled by a malicious online Lynch mob.

Expect 2026 to be a hundred times more AI appalling.

Environment:

New Zealand was hit by catastrophic and extreme weather events as the reality of climate change continues to erupt upon us whether we believe in it or not.

The disconnect between these extreme weather events and the Government’s war on the environment is beyond the media’s capacity to comprehend and articulate.

The total capture of the environmental agenda by Corporate Dairy, Mining, Property Developers and Big Pollution shows how willing National are to strangle off the common good for their donor’s interests.

The Methane deal locks us into catastrophic global warming.

I think there is a real danger here that the next wave of environmental activism stops being street based outrage and starts becoming cell group militant sabotaging of the infrastructure that enables this pollution.

National:

Luxon has all the charm of a road accident, but the window of removing him has passed and closed. No one in their right mind would challenge because there’s no way of winning in the short time leading up to the election.

The fundamental problem with National is that they don’t actually have any political philosophy, just the talking points of their donors so once they implement laws, the venal nature of those laws become apparent.

National rule for their donors and rich mates, fuck the poor, it’s as simple as that.

Their Emergency Housing Policy was universally criticised by every single group involved at the coal face, but they did it anyway and it sparked an enormous tsunami in homelessness, so much so that their ‘solution’ is to arrest the Homeless that they themselves have created!

Luxon’s skillset as a CEO was of no use when dealing with Political Alphas like Winston and Seymour who have run rings around him all year long.

The quick yellow dog and old silver fox  jumped all over the lazy blue hog.

Their mantra of better economic times after the economic mutilation and vandalism they’ve embarked upon is glued together by culture war malice in the hope that voters hate da trans and da Maoris and da Greenies more than they hate being mugged by the Supermarket every week and then mugged in the carpark afterwards.

National take today what tomorrow never brings.

ACT:

Are eagerly cannibalising National Party vote as they promise guilt free fascism. By dressing up their fascism in pseudo-intellectual libertarianism, ACT can continue to attack Māori, Environmentalism and public services while pimping extreme Corporate interests.

The Left have consistently underestimated ACT.

Brooke Van Velden’s war on worker rights and her kneecapping of Pay Parity marks her as a sociopath beyond anything the Left have encountered before.

Simon Court’s pro-Zionism is as ugly as it is creepy.

Karen Chhour’s tears are the ultimate Karen weaponisation.

David Seymour’s obedience to Atlas Network interests is super human.

They enter 2026 more powerful than ever before and ready to reap a harvest from the polarisation that marks our political culture now.

NZF:

Winston’s greatest shame this year was the staining of our collective mana by siding with war criminals rather than recognising Palestine.

He has leaned in so heavily to the culture wars he may as well be the anti-vaxx King of the Terfs. His ranting and raving distracts from the Pork Barrel extremities of Shane Jones and the Fishing and Mining Industries while Casey Costello pimps for Big Tobacco.

They benefit most from the conspiracy swamp rabbit hole echo chambers  that so many lonely Kiwis  have fallen into.

NZ First would champion book burning if only Winston didn’t consider fire to be woke.

I said at the time of the Dumb Lives Matter Parliament Lawn protests that Labour’s inability to de-escalate would lead to the Left permanently losing 5% of the vote.

NZF is where that 5% went.

The irony is that Jacinda’s actions saved 20 000 lives and most of those lives were Boomers who in turn voted for Winston.

No good dead goes unpunished.

If a novel virus ever gets lose again and it’s killing lots of Boomers, let’s just let it do its thing hu?

Labour:

Have finally used mediocrity as an advantage.

They promise little and we get less.

Their timid Wellington Labour Party Mandarin inspired insipidness is aimed at capturing back that soft Blue vote who voted for Jacinda in 2020 and then voted Luxon in 2023.

Chippy led Labour ain’t no Socialist Utopia, but he’s a decent bloke who wouldn’t have given Tobacco $300million or Oil and Gas $200million.

Labour’s centrism is the kind of antidote to the extremes of ACT and NZF which have coloured so much National Party policy.

National is good for Capitalists, Labour is good for Capitalism.

With the economy melting down, Labour’s credibility at managing with an element of decency is far better placed than Luxon.

At the last election 22% of Māori voted for National. Since coming to power however, I think a lot of that 22% will be marching right back to Labour alongside Auckland voters.

For Labour to win, they need to bring back the male voters ostracised by woke identity politics. Michael Wood, Craig Renney and Dr Gary Payinda are all strong candidates who can help do that.

I believe Labour will have the largest percentage of any party in the 2026 election.

Greens:

Have survived the Identity Politics coups and have appreciated the limitations of woke activists as MPs.

MUST focus on strong candidates like the incredible Tania Waikato. It’s not enough to be an identity, that identity must also have the skills to step up to the challenge of beating this terrible right wing government.

MUST focus on reaching out to the many Green voters who have recently moved to Australia.

MUST focus on reaching out to the 15% of the Labour vote who were so disappointed in what Labour were offering in 2023 that they didn’t bother voting at all.

MUST focus on pre registration for the vote NOW while using the gerrymandered changes to the Special vote this Government has rammed through Parliament by misusing urgency.

MUST form a joint negotiating alliance with the Māori Party post election if Green + MP + Labour = 51% to fend off NZFirst.

MUST give middle class Auckland voters disappointed by Labour’s incrementalism real Left wing transformative policy to Party vote Green.

MUST adopt most of what Zamdani is talking about in terms of free public transport, rent freezes, free early childhood care and state backed Supermarkets.

Chlöe Swarbrick as Deputy Prime Minister is a future worth fighting for.

Māori Party:

From the highs of 6 electorate seats, 7% in the polls and the stunning by-election win, they have become a train wreck that has smashed into a school bus that has exploded into a pet store of 3 legged puppies.

Here is my understanding.

Factions inside the Māori Party mistook the incredible support for the protests against the Treaty Principles Referendum as support for their brand of Tikanga.

That generated a desire within this faction to articulate their brand of Tikanga, a desire which was extinguished by the Leadership who were focused on metamorphosing from being a party of opposition activists into a credible partner in a supply and confidence arrangement to replace this terrible Government.

The extinguishing of this desire to express a Party of Tikanga twisted feelings and we saw egos put ahead of the waka and the airing of dirty laundry in front of the Marae.

The moment JT realised there was a challenge to the leaders brewing because these factions didn’t feel Debbie and Rawiri were ‘Tikanga enough’, (in the same way woke factions inside the Greens didn’t think their leadership was ‘woke enough), Tamihere responded with napalm.

Debbie and Rawiri deserved loyalty, not plotting.

Tarsh Kemp’s own text messages challenged Maraimeno’s assertions for crying out loud!

The level of self mutilation once mana is impinged is Cracker level toxic privilege.

Māori Party + Greens + Labour would be the most transformative Government since the Michael Savage Government.

Conclusion: 

The economy will falter and society will become more polarised.

The best outcome for the Political Left in 2026:

Māori Party holds 4 seats and has a low party vote that trigger’s an overhang, the Greens reach out to Australia special votes and brings in the non vote while Labour holds the middle which = 51%. The Greens and MP form a united negotiating front and forces Labour to adopt a genuinely progressive Zamdani platform.

The worst outcome for the Political Left in 2026

NZF + National + ACT are re-elected and cement into place their 19th Century White Settler privilege and continue to strangle the common good for their donors interests. Massive State Sale Programme begins and permanently mutilates the State.

The most likely outcome for the Political Left in 2026

If the Greens lose their 3rd place Party ranking to NZFirst, Winston calls the shots and will form a Government with Labour while making the Greens slaves while becoming a handbrake on any public good.

 

Merry Christmas everyone!

 

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