When even Stuff can see it…
A generational split emerges within National on house prices
An apparent split in the National Party over falling house prices is symptomatic of a generational split in New Zealand around home ownership, says one political analyst.
Economist Shamubeel Eaqub says the differences in opinion within National on housing prices represent a transition in New Zealand politics between young and old.
Bernard Hickey makes the point from the latest polling data…
Old anti-vaxx men prefer the coalition. Young women don’t.
A majority of male voters (54%) supported the centre-right, whereas 58% of female voters supported the centre-left. Voters under 40 years old were more supportive of the centre-left at 57 percent, whereas over 60 year old voters are more supportive of the centre-right, at 60 percent.
…the next election will be Old Zealand vs New Zealand.
Old Zealand are boomer white culture war males who thrash in fury at Trans, climate change, Māori, vaccines, the Treaty and are virulently pro Israel and Trump.
They are culturally threatened, have property and are economically anxious.
They are driven by Social Media Hate algorithms.
They have power because they religiously vote to ensure their privilege.
The good news for New Zealand is that Old Zealand are a shrinking electorate.
Estimation for 2025 (or more recent)
If similar age proportions hold, then:
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If 60+ voters are ~28-30% of the voter roll, and
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Under-40 voters are ~35%,
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then in a total roll of ~3.6 million enrolled voters (approx current size), you’d expect:
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60+ voters ≈ ≈ 1.0 to 1.1 million
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18-40 voters ≈ ≈ 1.25 million
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(These are rough estimates: actual numbers will depend on enrolment rates, population growth, and changes in age composition.)
New Zealand is a greater voting block than Old Zealand and that is what we need to collectively focus upon as we move into the 2026 election.
We have the numerical supremacy and by sweet Jesus we need to step up to defeat Old Zealand.
This hard rights Government’s anti-Māori, anti-Treaty, anti-Worker, anti-Renter, anti-beneficiary, anti-disabled, anti-environment agenda that strangles the common good for their donors interests represents Old Zealand whose cruelty and malice is simply not the future of New Zealand.
Old Zealand is dying metaphorically and literally. New Zealand is the future.
2026 Election will be Old Zealand vs New Zealand
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I’ll put this in the box with the assertions that the Republicans would never win another election after Obama and the booming Latin American population ls in southern states such as Texas.
Is that the same box that has “they’re eating the dogs, tariffs will make things cheaper, and I’ll end the Ukrainian conflict on day one?