Latest Roy Morgan is out and it shows Labour crashing 2.5%…
National – 31%
Labour – 28%
Greens – 14.5%
NZF – 9%
ACT – 8%
Māori Party – 2%
My gut tells me this is a sampling issue as opposed to massive haemorrhaging of Labour support, the last Poll that had Labour take from Greens (and National) was taken when Labour had announced a Targeted Capital Gains Tax, but the lack of anything more meaningful than that has seen a lot of that vote walk back to the Greens and it highlights the risk of playing to the centre.
ACT and NZF are frozen which suggests voters are getting sick of the toxic polarisation from Seymour and Winston, the Māori Party at 2% is probably their base vote after the distress ructions inside te Pati Māori.
Labour’s momentum has stalled because they’ve purposely watered down their message.
Labour’s Conference over the weekend was a beige on beige charm attack of mediocrity with policy wonk wonk for wonk wonks.
The wonk was so dull I kept falling asleep during it.
Shit it’s boring, BUT beige on beige incrementalism is all Labour need to offer those who voted Labour in 2020 and then voted National in 2023.
Labour haven’t followed Zohran Mamdani policy, they’ve followed sell out Keir Starmer Labour UK policy.
Both Labour and National have committed to keeping the size of Government and Government debt at or below 30% of GDP. Both have believed private investment could substitute for the public investment, creating Public Private Partnerships, Labour’s message is, ‘We are slightly less cruel than National’, which after so much toxic politics is a welcome message for the centre voter.
Chippy can be the Prime Minister AND an emotional support Labrador to an electorate of subjective wounds.
After sacrificing for the entire country so the covid vaccination rates could get high enough, Aucklanders looked at what Labour was offering during the last election in the form of GST off fruit and vegetables and felt Labour had slapped us in the face for our lockdown sacrifice. The wonk wonk on GP loan funding is just enough above GST off fruit and vegetables for Labour to get away with another year of incremental dullness.
We are a passionless people, this is the passionless Left.
The trouble for Labour is that if they focus only on the soft National middle, the many who are hurting most simply won’t turn up at the election.
The Economy is in far worse shape than the Freee Market Capitalism Cheerleaders like Liam Dann are proclaiming…
Pop the bubbly, the economic recovery is here (finally) – Liam Dann
…Bernard Hickey points out new funding is just personal loans…
…look at how Business Credit demands are still at 2023 levels…
…because of liquidations…
…despite all the Free Market Capitalism Cheerleaders crying the recession is over and green shoots are here to stay, the economy is very fucked, and you can see that in retail spending…
Black Friday spending down in 2025 in blow to retail recovery
…as the Economy sinks further, Labour are going to have to be far more imaginative and bold than wonk wonks.
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A sampling issue? That’s rather optimistic. And begs the question as to what ‘sample’ should it be to get the desired result. That’s not research, its cooking the data.
Meanwhile has anyone noticed all the increasing cheerleader hype in msm about the economy. Green shoots. The key role of brave and innovative entrepreneurs. Record spend ups at the BS Black Friday sales. Well, you do need to be positive in life but its this kind of rhetoric the Nats and the CoC have been aiming for leading up to the election. Give the impression things are not as bad as they seem and that ‘the ecomony’ is about to turn the corner. That matters to the squeezed middle.
Notwithstanding the hype the reality is a good many appear to be doing pretty good at present. The 1%ers of course but also many of the PMC, at least those who haven’t lost their jobs in the reshuffle. With youth unemployment 1 in 4 in some communities it’s clear where the pain lies. Perhaps youth should be the target of sampling!
Yes, once again N.Z.s right wing media out in full disguise to put lipstick on the pig that is the NZ economy.
The evidence is contrary, which makes tying to justify the rhetoric, silly.
Unfortunately, it all points to boring beige Chippy not being the man for the job. Why can’t Labour’s hierarchy see that?
As you say, they all lack passion.
We have passion and we reckon Willie, Alysha, Keiren, Barbara, plenty good possibilities.
Hard to know why people are more easily swayed by daft pronouncements from Cluxon, which usually mean less than nothing, and the waspish Willis.
If people are sick of the Seymour/Winston circus, why can’t they see that Cluxon is largely to blame because he is helpless to control them. So much for his grandiose CEO talk. More of a ceo.
All he offers is pompous, weak, impotent, self-congratulatory rubbish.
NZ doesn’t need a ceo or even a CEO. We need a leader.
We need someone to stir the imagination and Willie Jackson could be the man to do it.
Remember how reinvigorating it was, when Andrew Little was man enough to step down in favour of Jacinda. It didn’t end Little’s career. It wouldn’t end Hipkins’ either.
Joyless
People are sick of Seymour circus?…you mean you are! And if you are, then of course “all of New Zealand are”…is that how it works? But that’s just so typical of you activists. Like that Green MP the other day who said there is “massive public demand” for cycleways. Is there? See many cyclist on them? I don’t and I cycle. There is no massive demand. What I have seen is bikepaths screw up Wellington. What there is massive demand for is more roads, faster roads and better roads. The truth is, when there is a left agenda, the opinion of one becomes ‘massive demand”…or “people are sick of”. What we are sick of is your constant whinging.
Like the rights wasteful spending agenda
You didn’t notice. I said, ‘If people are sick of…’ etc.
Apart from having a whinge about cycle paths which I didn’t mention, what is your point?
They can’t keep the roads we have in good shape so no point expecting more roads.
Try to be happy that you have cycle paths to yourself and aren’t stuck in the road congestion. Somebody ‘demanded’ them in the past and you get to benefit.
Looks like you are more of a whinger than me.
But thanks for calling me an activist. No-one has ever said that before. i will treasure that.
Ponzie has no point.
The truth is, when there is a right agenda, the opinion of one becomes ‘massive demand”…or “people are sick of”. What we are sick of is Ponzie’s constant whinging.
An informal random poll on stuff last week had Labour at around 38% .No door knocking or selecting people just click and collect .
Could not agree more Joy! Also is Labour’s memory so short or twisted that they cannot comprehend why they lost the last election by such a huge margin? Which was not because of COVID, it was because of all the stupid captains calls. If Chippy was Helen Clark he would have resigned immediately, but no he has trudged on offering exactly the same lame policies. Good for him not for anyone else. And nobody is going to get excited about GPs getting cheap loans. WTF.
Hipkins is NOT the “One”. He’s excellent, talented, ethical, but not a leader who can inspire. We all saw that during Covid where he and Grant Robertson were perfect partners to Jacinda’s very effective, instinctive leadership.
I think Kieran McAnulty would stand a better chance of undertaking the necessary inspiring of a now-jaded electorate. We’ll certainly need dynamism and charisma to beat the predictable, heavily-funded Topham Guerin onslaught of smooth, duplicitous mendacity of the Triumvirate of Nasties who fooled us last time and could fool the #AngryStupid again if we let them 🙁
Kieran would be an ideal leader IMO he has leadership skills quick and witty and knows how to punch back
Martyn, you know what I think of Morgan Polls – BS! Almost every one of them shows Nat at 31% and Lab abt 28%. It’s simply copy and paste! Re the replacement of Luxon, why would you substitute a cardboard cut-out with the only difference being the face which can be swivelled, the head of Luxon one side, Bishop the other?
However, of more importance, while Labour have no intention of bringing out their best policies this early, they need to have them defined and ready and they better be good! Even true Lefites will not vote for mediocre, middle of the road, same old – same old rubbish. There needs to be a brave, huge mind-set change to take NZ back to a sensible starting point and this time with meaningful, well thought-out, transparent policies. No more knee-jerking – we have all had a gut’s full of those in the past two years. We all know that the CoC parties will lie and lie and lie again, and promise what they can’t nor will ever deliver, but while you have so many gormless “sorted” out there, that factor is never going to change. Their enablers are incapable of seeing the big picture or the implications! So stop the pathological lying CoC and Labour – wake the hell up! Joy yes – there is a very obvious lack of passion! Just sliding in is not going to be GOOD ENOUGH! There will be messing with the electoral rolls and many other underhand tactics from the Right. It works so why would they not keep cheating?
Don’t need a weather man to know which way the wind blows
Yep and now the voters can continue to see how inept, ineffective and utterly useless this National CoC and its ministers have been, Labours numbers will soar.
Landslide looking more likely by the day.
yep nats will be buried under it
Bob’s math poor and complete lack of knowledge of the word “landslide”.
Are you programmed to run fast so as to not get buried
Martyn – 14.5% Greens ?!
I don’t agree with Martyn’s analysis.
Those voters who flocked to Labour in 2020 are not your typical swing voters, they were voting because of the short term response to Covid. By trying to attract back this group with BS incremental policy is pointless, and will drive away many of the hard core Labour voters who will just give up hope.
I think the biggest danger is that Chippie will keep so many voters away, and swing voters will decide they can just vote National and get rid of ACT and NZF and have a useless but status quo Luxon for another 3 years.
Labour need to start releasing policy as soon as the new year begins, and it had better be transformational and not just more crap papering over the cracks. They need to excite their support base to get out and vote for equity, tell NZF to get fucked as well as those brain dead swing voters who stand for nothing.