Once the official death toll in Gaza got to 50,000 I stopped following the number. The real toll will be significantly higher. As we near the second anniversary of the conflict, Israelis have revenged killed over fifty Palestinians for every one Israeli that was killed in the 7th October 2023 Hamas attack (half of which may have been killed by the IDF themselves as per the ‘Hannibal Directive’). The Nazis had a reprisal ratio in occupied territories starting 10:1 in Western Europe up to 100:1 in Eastern Europe. Will Israel exceed even that – if they haven’t already?
The opinion polling in Israel shows the (Jewish) population do want the war, do want Israeli annexation of Gaza and don’t want a “two state solution”. They care about the few remaining hostages and the IDF casualties not about what happens to the Palestinians. The big rallies in Tel Aviv are anti-Netanyahu not pro or anti anything else. There are less hostages than there are men entombed in the Pike River mine; and just as the NZ government wouldn’t send in anyone to get those 29 out, I don’t think the Israelis expect their government to sacrifice 24 IDF staff to get the 24 hostages out either – let’s be realistic about it. The political dynamic is Bibi needs the war to cling to power and to use as leverage with the Palestinian Authority.
An Israeli war aim of annexation (which is what the extremist cabinet members want and what Bibi hopes might be achievable) without any willing partner in crime to achieve the population transfer to another place means either having the Gazan population under military/militia control or liquidating the Gazan population in a full-on industrial genocide even worse than now. If there is no country willing to take in two million Gazan Palestinians and the Israelis will not transfer them to the West Bank or inside Israel then what happens? The alternative to those scenarios is what I have thought from the start – the Israelis will have to get the Palestinian Authority to take over security and administration in Gaza one way or the other. The preconditions for that are problematic enough, but seem to be playing out with the international community lining up for a fait accompli. Recognition of statehood tied up in conditions that exclude a democratically elected party (yes – Hamas) are as bogus as trying to settle the Irish Question without Sinn Fein, or the Boer War without the Boers.
The major issue is that connivance by the PA with Israel will wreck what credibility the PA has with the Gaza population and the PA would be inherently weak and unstable as a collaborator regime. Whatever drag proxy Hamas stands under in the next elections will get a majority and the PA would be faced with internal collapse from factions that cannot share power, or externally from Israel re-invading to put pressure on the PA to suppress the Hamas proxy party. Remember that the Muslim Brotherhood won the elections in Egypt and barely lasted a year before the Americans cooked up a coup to get rid of the wrong democratically elected party – this is what might happen in Gaza if they ever held democratic elections again. Here’s where this is going: a corrupt, repressive, undemocratic Palestinian Authority propped up by Israel and funded by the West is going to be running Gaza. Israel will benefit from the Gaza rebuild financed by the West and the Arabs.
What then are the war aims of Hamas?
As one Hamas representative said their attack on 7th October 2023 was done “to show the true face of the Israelis”. Which is their true face has a little Hitler moustache going by the reprisal ratios mentioned before. Mission achieved. Or are they going to keep going and this isn’t the true face of the Israelis – they can be worse than the Nazis? I don’t think I’ve heard any war goal other than the concept of encouraging Israel to create a public relations disaster for itself and have the world lose sympathy for Israel by a display of their own disproportionate response. Hamas was setting Gaza up to be a punching bag for the Israelis, hoping they might sprain their wrist. Instead all the stuffing is coming out and they haven’t broken a sweat. It looks very futile.
Where does Palestinian statehood fit into these scenarios?
A wider outcome of a secure Palestinian state with a neutralised Israel is an official stance of Hamas as well; but ultimately – as with the Israelis – they see it as a long game of winner-take-all river-to-the-sea exclusivity contest. They both say they want a two state solution but neither really do and there are no trust mechanisms to ever get there. It may end in a stalemate, so that’s why the borders and areas of actual occupation matter so much.
Hamas has very well succeeded in that initial goal of allowing the world to see the sadism and barbarism, the perversity and the lies of the Israelis. The reward for that – at that huge human toll – is recognition of the Palestinian state by most of the remaining Western nations, which happened earlier this week. How Hamas can survive as a political force on the ground in Gaza to keep their options open in a post-war situation and to be part of the governing coalition (as they publicly aspire to be) is just by hanging on as they have been doing. Hamas is matching IDF social media and the journalists are still in Gaza reporting – Israel can’t do anything about that despite targeting them and so Hamas’s war aims are continuing to be met despite the massive carnage and destruction. At some point the Israelis for whatever reason will be forced to relent and then the Palestinian State will emerge with or without Hamas involvement.
New Zealand seems irrelevant to this discussion because it is. New Zealand in World War One fought as British to take Palestine for the Jews as it transpired via Mr Balfour, and then under Peter Fraser, the New Zealand delegation supported the partition plan in 1947. It was an act of colonisation. New Zealand and those other nations had no right to partition anything at the United Nations – the people of the territory only could have that right. New Zealand is a shabby colony of European settlers who grossly overrate their relevance and consequently has quite a shabby and pitiful international record – not the bright moral one the average smug New Zealander likes to think.
Timing really is everything. Winston Peters was always going to leave it to the eleventh hour to announce the New Zealand government’s position on recognising Palestinian statehood no matter what the cabinet decision was. Politics to Winston is about drama as much as it is about policy. That the decision process was engineered by Winston so he would have a last say on the last day is massively on-brand.
So, at the eleventh hour, literally 11:11am yesterday (27/09/2025) the pin-striped midget mounted the ramp once more in the UN General Assembly hall to say earnest things on behalf of New Zealand. He had displaced the cretinous Luxon from leaders’ week without any push back by the looks of it. For someone who likes to be out of the country away from all the bottom-feeder plebs a trip to New York would have been perfect timing for Luxon too – away from the recessionary winter his coalition government had created. But this was Winston’s time.
I could see by the rising views in the counter that Winston’s speech was greatly anticipated. The Pacific Island micro-states had been on before to lower views. They were lecturing the nations of the world about climate change and lecturing them about the need to change the Security Council and so on. And I’m listening to these lectures from countries completely dependent on nations such as New Zealand for their fiscal survival, completely dependent on other nations for just about everything, and with populations smaller than the average district council in New Zealand, and it is ridiculous. Sure, absurd even. But there is the proof of what sovereignty means – equality of status regardless of statistics.
Winston, after berating the UN for ineffectiveness and chiding the Security Council and making all the other ritualised admonishments and lamentations that everyone else had already made finally got to the point: New Zealand will not be recognising the State of Palestine. What a massive cunt. And once again totally on-brand.
It seems the toxic combination of conservative Act and conservative National combined with conservative NZ First has produced another shabby, pitiful day in New Zealand international relations. Rimmer was proud of himself on Twitter, Luxon in his presser afterwards was putting it more matter-of-factly. Winston thought it was shrewd – his verbiage was creative. To be fair there are some legitimate arguments to be made, but most of them seem to be geared towards Winston having more leverage and drama capacity at a later date. To also be fair it is definitely a sop to Trump, avoids a spat with Israel and keeps Act on-side.
New Zealand looks like a piece of shit, sure, but to be fair New Zealand is a piece of shit country that voted for the partition in the first place, so why would supporting the Israeli settler-state ever change? This is the piece of shit country whose former Prime Minister Geoffrey Palmer was on a UN board to investigate the Israeli attack on a flotilla in 2010 the Mavi Marmara incident where they killed ten crew and he contrived a doctrine to let the Israelis off the legal hook by saying that it was lawful to attack anyone anywhere as soon as they said they intended to run a blockade! Same Geoffrey Palmer who let the French agent Rainbow Warrior killer saboteurs out of jail early for blood money to have a holiday on Hao atoll before getting medals in France. New Zealand does not have a good legacy on these matters. New Zealand lets France get away with giving lectures about terrorism after they terrorised New Zealand – that is too pitiful.
What Winston has done is allow Israel to simply veto his stated recognition process by violating any one of the preconditions, eg. territorial integrity by invading Gaza. This is a discreditable stratagem plainly designed to avoid recognising Palestine.
Here is Winston’s pathetic statement from the Beehive issued right after his speech and most of it are quotes straight from the speech:
New Zealand will not be recognising the State of Palestine at this time, Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced at the UN General Assembly in New York today.
“With a war raging, Hamas remaining the de facto government of Gaza, and no clarity on next steps, too many questions remain about the future State of Palestine for it to be prudent for New Zealand to announce recognition at this time,” Mr Peters says.
“We are also concerned that a focus on recognition, in the current circumstances, could complicate efforts to secure a ceasefire by pushing Israel and Hamas into even more intransigent positions.”
New Zealand continues to call out all actions being taken by both Israel and Hamas which prolong the conflict, prevent a political solution, and seek to extinguish the viability of a Palestinian state, Mr Peters says.
“New Zealand has long been a staunch advocate of the two-state solution and a defender of Palestinians’ right to self-determination,” Mr Peters says.
“What is needed now more than ever is dialogue, diplomacy and leadership – not further conflict and extremism.
“New Zealanders are shocked by the harrowing images of famine in Gaza, revolted by the grossly disproportionate military action from the Israeli Government and disturbed by Israeli rhetoric and actions aimed at dismantling future prospects for a Palestinian state.
“New Zealanders also abhor Hamas’ completely heinous refusal to release the hostages it is holding, its abject disregard for both Palestinian and Israeli life and its stated determination to destroy Israel. Our concern is not with the Palestinian Authority, which faces very difficult circumstances. We will continue to do our part to strengthen its capability.”
New Zealand’s position remains that it is a matter of when, not if we recognise the State of Palestine.
“Like every other New Zealand Government over the past 80 years, we hold the position that we will recognise a Palestinian state when the time is right.
“What we are looking for now are real actions towards the full viability and legitimacy of the State of Palestine, rather than rhetoric in that direction; Israel to stop and reverse all actions aimed at destroying the two-state solution, including illegal settlements in the West Bank, and to return to meaningful negotiations with the Palestinians; the release by Hamas of all the hostages it holds; the disbanding and disarmament of Hamas; and the renouncement of violence by all Palestinian leaders who have yet to do so.”
Recognition of Palestine is a complex issue on which reasonable people can disagree, Mr Peters says.
“Some of our close partners have chosen to recognise Palestine, and others have not. We do not question the good intentions of those who have chosen to recognise Palestine at this time. Indeed, we have a shared objective of trying to help bring about a two-state solution. Where we differ with some of our partners is on the issue of whether recognition now by New Zealand will make a tangible, positive contribution to the realisation of a two-state solution.”
New Zealand remains committed to doing its part to alleviate the immense suffering in Gaza, Mr Peters says.
“The international community must retain its focus on the very urgent and practical challenge of getting as much humanitarian assistance as possible into Gaza. For that reason, we are providing $10 million more to international humanitarian partners to deliver emergency supplies into Gaza.
“New Zealand repeats our call for an immediate ceasefire; unfettered access for humanitarian supplies into Gaza; all sides to adhere to international law; a two-state solution as a result of a comprehensive political settlement; and an end by Israel to all illegal settlement activity and current military action.”
The New Zealand Government has also today released Cabinet material associated with its decision on the recognition of Palestine.
Great post.
More taxpayer money wasted so Winston can enjoy the baubles of office .A free trip to Trump Land ,where he missed the free feed .Another chance to rant to the world and show what a piss weak country we are now and how we will bend over for the US masters who will royally screw us nay day soon .
Exactly. Winston has chosen to support the Gaza Holocaust, the worst genocide of the past hundred years, chosen to support the most evil terrorist group the world has ever seen.
Didn’t I say “Winston is an ardent supporter of apartheid Israel”
Indeed. Always has been. Winston supports the zionist terrorists, just like he supported apartheid South Africa and attacked anyone who fought against it.
You know, you don’t do the Palestinian cause any favours by exaggerating and posting bullshit. The worst genocide of the past hundred years? – Excluding the various genocides in World War II? The half a million people killed mainly with machetes in Rwanda? The various genocides in Somalia? The Kurds? Cambodia? East Timor? The ethnic cleansing of Hindus in Bangladesh? Jesus Christ, just … stop.
Even before WW2. Little things like the Holomodor come to mind.
Lol, noone believes your lies.
The Belgian genocide in the Congo was worse. Nothing that happened to the zionists compares.
Again you show your ignorance of history. And maybe just pig-headedness who knows
So does that make it okay then GS? It’s a valid point but I would argue those other atrocities weren’t caused by Christian guilt ( let’s face it over the centuries Christians have killed more Jews than any Muslim) resulting in stealing a portion of a country and giving it to people who preceded to steal the rest of it. All bank rolled by a combination of western governments and Jews living in those countries to brainwash people into believing myths and ranting on about the holocaust and antisemitism like the Palestinians had any f’ing thing to do with it. All the while the Zionists must be laughing as the Christians, they think are idiots ( Jesus was just a criminal who pissed the Jewish off way more than the Romans) rush to their defence. It’s a pity Brian Tamaki can’t read.
That wasn’t even my point. Of course it doesn’t make it okay that’s stupid. And to be honest, I can’t see where you get that from my statement. But every time you exaggerate like Mo does, it gives leverage to people like Chris Trotter, who say things like “If the Israelis really wanted to commit genocide they could.” And “It’s not a real genocide, Because it’s not the Holocaust or Rwanda”.
As usual, you have nailed it Tim.
There is one good thing to have come out of Winston Peters shameless equivocation at the UN. A whole bunch of New Zealanders will not now be given the opportunity to hold their heads high and to fraudulently claim the New Zealand state as a force for good in the world. From its inception the Colony/Dominion/Realm of New Zealand has been an agent of evil. It was founded in genocide and it has gone on to either actively or tacitly support colonialist genocides around the world.
“New Zealand is a shabby colony of European settlers who grossly overrate their relevance and consequently has quite a shabby and pitiful international record – not the bright moral one the average smug New Zealander likes to think”.
That “shabby colony” must be destroyed.
People must stop pretending that it is something of an aberration that New Zealand is one of the few states in the world to support the Trump/Netanyahu axis in all its horror. They must give up the hope that a kinder colonialism is possible, and that some other governing coalition might take a more principled approach in domestic and international affairs.
It won’t happen. As Tim notes, Labour leader “Sir Geoffrey” Palmer was a craven colonialist who lacked the guts to take on the imperial masters even if he had the will to do so, which is doubtful.
Our enemy, the enemy of tangata motu and of all decent New Zealanders, is not the New Zealand government. It is the entire structure of the colonialist regime and all its hangers on.
NZ is a shitty little British colony on the edge of the world love it.
This sermon from the UN wasn’t his to make on 6% of the vote. He has taken it on himself to be the voice for all Aotearoa because as usual the gutless Luxon is nowhere to be seen at crucial times. Normally he can’t wait to be prancing around other countries fondling other world leaders but this time an All Black match was much more important . Whoever voted for this clown show last election had better not next time because history will show how stupid you voters were in voting in a clown show in the first place
New Zealand is a shabby colony of European settlers who grossly overrate their relevance and consequently has quite a shabby and pitiful international record – not the bright moral one the average smug New Zealander likes to think.
Yep – I fucking hate the term “average New Zealander” – so pathetic and patronizing
Winston Peters became a corrupt nihilist out of wounded pride. His ambition was to lead the nation. When the voters played him like a yo-yo, now in office, now out in the cold, now back in office, but always the bridesmaid and never the bride, all sense of obligation to the nation deserted him. He knows he leads a corrupt party, and frankly, he doesn’t care. He would rather have his corrupt sidekicks than people who would speak truth to his face. A sad end for a man who once promised much.
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