The 5 paths to MMP victory for the NZ Left in next election

By
Martyn Bradbury
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30
1141

I think there are 3 things that are important politically right now.

1 – The Polls are turning against this deeply unpopular Government and there is a real chance this could be a one term Government. Post Covid bitterness drove voters to elect 3 Parties without fully comprehending how extreme the policy platform would be and as it dawns, voters are retreating in alarm.

2-  The Māori Party signalling they are moving from voice of opposition to considering how they would work in a Government.

3 – Political stresses between NZF and ACT could trigger an early election as the Economy tanks.

I think there are 5 paths to victory for the NZ Left in the next election.
Path 1: The dream – Labour + Green Majority Government
With Labour on 33, there is a real possibility that they could hit 36 and with a 12 Green, could be a one seat majority. This would give the Greens enormous say over Policy and would be the dream outcome for Left voters who have yearned for a Labour led Government genuinely influenced by Left wing policy.
Path 2: The ZB Fear – Labour + Greens minority Government with supply + confidence from Māori Party
A Labour/Green majority is the hope, but a far more likely outcome is that the math goes Labour + Green + TPM. In this scenario TPM stand outside the Government for specific policy wins in return for supply and confidence. This scenario will be painted by the Right as the Māori tail wagging the New Zealand Dog and be sold as the end of Western Civilisation as we know it.
Path 3: The most likely outcome – Labour + Greens + TPM coalition Government 
Mike Hosking’s worst nightmare. In this scenario the Māori Party join Labour and Greens to form a Government with the Treaty at its heart.
Path 4: The conservative Labour win – Labour + Green minority Government with supply and confidence from NZF
The conservative elements of Labour are deeply suspicious of the Māori Party and fear being too close to them will drive bigoted voters away from voting Labour. In this scenario, Labour cut a deal with Winston for Supply and Confidence that gives him a Ministerial position (probably Foreign Affairs) while bullying the Greens into agreeing to screw over the Māori Party and alienate them from Government.
Path 5: The Ultimate – Labour + Green Majority Government with NZF and TPM partners

In this scenario Labour and Greens have the majority, but invite TPM and NZF in regardlessly. This is the John Key outcome whereby Labour have NZF to their right and TPM to their left and can tack between each one to get policy through.

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There are trigger moments during this year that may force a snap election which means the Left have to be ready to go to the Polls this year, not in 2026.

 

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30 COMMENTS

  1. I would like to see the projected out come if the Maori seats were taken away and Maori voters voted in full in general seats .I would suspect that National would be gone in places like Northland and Taranaki King country where National have held seats because the large Maori populace are on the Maori roll .Is there a mats wizzard out there that can answer this question I wonder .

    • TPM want their own parliament so are unlikely to be on board to do away with the Maori seats. Labour knows the seats are winnable so would not want to lose their possible advantage.

    • Since it is the party vote that determines the list MPs why would removal of the Maori seats make any difference? It would remove any advantage from split voting for those electorates which might reduce any overhang but I doubt that it would be enough on its own to determine the government. I think that the Maori seats should stay though.

    • Good question Gordon. I to would be interested to know the answer.
      Another scenario that interests me is Labour doing what Nats do in Epsom in other words do a deal with TPM .
      You can have the electorate seats if you tell your supporters to give us the party vote. This option would probably give Labour another 3 or 4% party vote and counter the loss of the Maori seats.

  3. The Left definitely need to be ready this year…as a united front.

    No bickering between parties in public…find the common ground now … stick to it….Do not start airing dirty laundry or acting in an agressive disrespectful way towards each other…think of how bad N.Z. is now and how bad that is for so many people…think of the big picture ….think of getting rid of this terrible terrible destructive government.

    Even now…As just one example…to show intent about how Labour believe children should be treated… they should forcefully state that Seymour’s disastrous upchuckmuck lunches will be cancelled…gone .. and be replaced with the previous successful format…
    Locally sourced, fresh nutritious food, locally made
    with pride and passion giving our children the best chance in life…that’s the messaging….
    Only an arsehole would disagree with that!… ride right over the top of them.

    The Coalition of Absolute Clusterfuckery Chaos are so vulnerable on so many fronts there is no shortage of attack lines …all the stats ..no matter which way you look …are terrible…

    This can’t go on…

  4. We know the damage the vandal Govt. has and is doing, so lets hope there is an early election, but there are a couple of urgent matters…

    –NZCTU needs a new class left leadership–ffs Van Velden will not even meet with the NZCTU! but she has met with some small fake Aussie anti vax groups masquerading as unions. The CTU represents 360,000 workers but bullshit groups like Taxpayers Union and others get the news headlines apart from the odd good contribution from CTU Economist Rennie. The CTU and workers struggles should be headline news everyday to encourage others to organise, at the moment it is left to individual unions to make a splash. Some have done well like Maritime on the Cook Strait ferry debacle and health sector unions. Young Māori and Iwi organisations are well organised on the ground now and getting more political by the day–they often put many pākehā to shame for being spectators and consumers rather than active participants in life.

    –NZ Labour need to reveal at least a capital gains tax and other pro worker measures, wealth tax could wait till after an election perhaps if they can’t resolve it prior, but still has to happen, and the retirement of WINZ/MSD in favour of a basic income for all.

    • This government has an ingrained disdain for employees and so does the mainstream media. CTU receive little to no coverage in the mainstream media (compared to the Taxpayers Union). If you want productivity you better recognise labour but this government so the sloganeering around growth is utter bullshit. Just laugh when see Luxon talking about better wages because everything they are doing is driving down wages and consequently driving people out of the country. They are only in government to line their own pockets. A government of slogans, unachievable projections, and superlatives that oppose reality. Luxon is a shit CEO and Seymour, an idealogical dweeb. Fuck off!

  5. If 3 is hoskings worst nightmare, then I’m all for it. But please not 4 or 5. Drunkle Winnie is smart enough to engineer a snap election to advantage himself, and he’s a fairly harmless old codger, but I couldn’t tolerate pompous jones in any shape or form.

  6. Yep Jones is the very worst. Labour needs to wake up, but doesn’t look like chippy will go anywhere, he’s glued on stuck fast. This could be a big problem.

  7. Now is the time to strike. With van ( what’s her face ) refusing to meet its time for the workers to rise up (what’s left of them anyway ). Workers get on your bikes because you had no problem to strike when Labour were the government. EVERY ONE MUST GO TO PARLIAMENT

  10. There is another path and it’s the most plausible. The damage this Coc has created for our country means people will jump hoops to vote for the left block now they realise Labour had us on the right track and it was only the very gullible who listened to New Zealand’s right wing media outlets that bought the vile the right bloc spewed.

  11. The only path to MMP victory for the Left in NZ is for the Maori Party to run candidates in every general electorate and for every patriotic New Zealander to vote for them, rather than the centre-right Green party or the extreme-right privitizers of the ‘labour’ party.

  12. FFS – there is only one way to an election victory (unless you just wait until everyone is sick of the other lot)

    A strong leader with a strong plan.

Comments are closed.