At the start of 2025, the most important battle being fought in the Ukraine War is the one to influence President Trump. On 21 January, the new president will be inaugurated and both sides are committed to shaping his opinion because their policy will shape the course of the war. The new administration determining whether Ukraine is drawn into a long, grinding war of attrition supported only by its European allies; or whether America provides enough support to defeat Putin’s aggression.
Russia is maintaining its ‘full court’ press, burning through casualties at an incredible rate trying to maintain forward progress on the battlefield. Aiming to demonstrate strength, and the will to win at any cost. Ukraine’s soldiers on the other hand, are fighting a defensive battle in Donetsk, inflicting casualties on Russia while simultaneously striking hard elsewhere aiming to demonstrate that Ukraine can defeat Russia.
In the air, both sides continue to batter each other’s war-fighting infra-structure. Ukraine maintaining its long-range drone and missile attacks on Russia’s oil production facilities, military command and logistics hubs, A massive wave of drone and missile strikes on 14 January, destroying oil facilities and a range of military targets across Russia.
Russia’s air campaign continues to target Ukraine’s civilian infra-structure with regular drone and missile strikes on cities and power infra-structure. An especially large attack was launched on Christmas Day with approximately 70 missiles and 100 drones crossing the border into Ukraine. It is clear that Russia is maintaining pressure on civilians in Ukraine, these attacks designed to make the population as cold and uncomfortable as possible. A noteworthy point is the use of Ukraine’s own long-range missile, the ‘Neptune.’ Ukraine’s increasing use of these missiles demonstrates that the nation has a long-range strike capability regardless of future US support.
The operational-level situation
Russia’s main effort continues to be Pokrovsk, their aim is to capture the city and dominate transport route through area, and create base from which to campaign for control of the remainder of Donbas. Pokrovsk is near a set of important road and rail connections, and sits on high ground that dominates a large area, so it is a useful stepping stone on the path to capturing the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
The struggle for Pokrovsk, is the essence of this campaign with Russia committing forces in Donetsk to outflank and envelop the town. While Ukraine attacks Russia’s flank in Kursk, trying to make Russia move soldiers away from Pokrovsk and reduce Russia’s ability to take the town. But from Ukraine’s perspective the battle in Donetsk is not about land, it is about attrition. Ukraine defending key towns, using the advantages of defence to destroy Russian equipment and inflict casualties, but conserving its own forces by withdrawing them before they are destroyed. The attack in Kursk contributes to the plan by drawing Russian forces away from Donetsk, reducing Russia’s offensive effectiveness and increasing Ukraine’s local combat power.
Ukraine’s successful attack in Kursk on 5 January received lots of media coverage. At tactical-level the attack was successful, Ukrainian forces advancing and expanding the territory they hold near Sudzha. This town is Ukraine’s base for operations in Kursk, and at tactical-level the operation clearly contributes to holding the town.
However, media coverage inflated the significance of this attack. Initial reporting indicated a more serious attack. This operation is noteworthy though because it demonstrates; Ukraine’s ability to conduct offensive operations and its desire to hold ground in the Kursk region. But the attack is not operationally significant, being similar in size and progress to many Russian attack and did not influence the wider campaign.
Further south, Russia’s attack on Pokrovsk is developing as predicted. (See – Trump fires the first shots in possible negotiations, is the end-game starting? ) The Russians choose not to attack the city through the wide bowl of open ground immediately to its east, instead they manoeuvred far to the south using a wide left flanking approach. This axis of attack allows them to approach through broken ground (ridge lines, waterways and woodland) that provides cover for their movement.
The areas surrounding Pokrovsk are also contested. Russian forces continue to attack Kurakhove, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar but since the last article none of this activity has produced an operational-level change in situation.
What can we expect next at operational-level?
It is important to look beyond the ‘lines on the map’ when analysing a military campaign. At this stage, Russia is capturing ground but the operational-level campaign appears to be developing in-line with Ukrainian strategy. In February 2024, when General Oleksandr Syrskyi took command of Ukrainian forces, he was clear that Ukraine’s intent was inflicting attrition on Russian forces. He stated that Ukraine would switch to a defensive phase of operations, forcing Russia to attack and using the advantages of defence to maximise Russian casualties.
Even Ukraine’s attack in Kursk contributes to the overall objective of forcing Russia into costly offensive operations. Rather than being able to achieve overwhelming force in Donetsk, Russia has had to deploy soldiers to Kursk to contain, then attack the Ukrainian salient. This slows down their advance in Donetsk and creates opportunities to attrit Russian forces sent to repel the Ukrainian incursion.
Although Russia is capturing ground, all ground is not equal. And, in this war the small towns sitting on high ground are the key terrain. Urban areas with solidly constructed apartment blocks and factories that become strong points, dominating surrounding road and rail junctions. Places like Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Pokrovsk. And Russia is losing enormous amounts of men and equipment with limited success taking these pieces of key terrain.
During the next few weeks, while the new administration settles into the Whitehouse, we should expect to see the campaign increase in intensity. The most important area is around Pokrovsk, where Russia is currently building towards an attack from the south. Therefore, expect a large attack on Pokrovsk probably in the next few weeks. The attack timed to influence US policy, a demonstration that the Russia has offensive capacity and can defeat Ukraine. Attacking from this direction their assault force can use broken ground to advance with a degree of concealment.
The attack on Pokrovsk is likely to follow the pattern we have seen in Avdiivka and Bakhmut, a long slow attack supported by artillery and airpower. As the attack on Pokrovsk develops we should also expect more pressure on Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and the areas around these towns as Russia seeks to control ground to envelop Kramatorsk and Sloviansk from the south.
Russia will also seek to maintain pressure north of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, so expect more fighting along the Oskil River near Kupyansk and near Lyman. If Russia can advance on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk from both north and south it is easier to envelop the cities, cut supply lines and starve the defence.
A key aim of Russian operations in the next few weeks will be to influence the new president by presenting the war in Ukraine as a forgone conclusion, one that US aid cannot influence.
And, what about the new White House?
The key unanswerable question is what President Trump’s policy towards Ukraine will be, and at this stage there is little firm information about his position. Already Presidents Putin and Zelensky are bargaining. Putin appears to be trying to ‘play hardball,’ while Zelensky is a ‘building bridges’ by meeting with President Trump and toning down his rhetoric allowing for compromise positions.
At this stage we can speculate based on three factors likely to influence US policy:
- President Trump’s key security appointments indicate that the new White House is likely to be focussed on competition with China. President Trump’s cabinet appointments include people like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, regarded as ‘hawkish’ towards China. In simple terms the US has bigger security issues than Russian aggression in Europe, and the Ukraine War is a distraction. A situation, General Sir Richard Barrons a retired UK Joint Force Commander summarised in 2022 when he described the conflict with Russia as “a speed bump on the way to the trilogy of the rise of China, climate change and the digital age.” A statement that several key people in the new administration may agree with, and that mitigates towards ending the Ukraine conflict as quickly as possible. Further, competition with China is difficult even for the US, and so it needs NATO’s military, tech and economic resources.
- The US has plenty of other issues to manage. As well as potentially existential threats, the US must also contend with a wide range of concerns like Middle East security issues, Iranian hostility, North Korean aggression and the rise of the BRICs nations.
- Russia’s military weakness has been exposed. Prior to the Ukraine War, Russia was regarded as a first-rate military power. However, Russia’s military has consistently under-performed, suffering enormous casualties and is now running out of equipment. Further, there is evidence that Russia’s economy cannot stand the strain of the war continuing.
Taking these factors into account, it seems likely that the new White House will want to disengage quickly. And, appeasing Russia probably does not contribute to this objective. Instead, this option has a range of poor outcomes. It empowers Russia, an ally of China and it undermines European confidence in the US at a time when the US probably needs NATO resources. Additionally, there is no guarantee that withdrawing US support will force Ukraine to stop fighting, potentially creating a long, slow European war. A situation no-one wants.
Further, Russia is weak both economically and militarily, which means that US aid to Ukraine, or increased sanctions on Russia are liable to have a powerful impact. Putin’s unreasonable behaviour and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric have also damaged his relationship with China. Essentially, Putin has a weak hand, and President Trump’s advisors know that putting pressure on him will be easier than on Ukraine.
President Trump has a great deal of political capital in negotiating a quick end to the war. Therefore, my assessment is that Putin will be given an ultimatum, and if he does not accept the conditions of it US aid will flow into Ukraine.
Summary
The next few weeks will be very interesting and important. We should expect the unexpected, for instance if either side has the capability for a large offensive operation it is likely to be in the next few weeks. Likewise, we should expect to see more and heavier air attacks and threatening rhetoric as both sides aim to influence the US.
However, I believe that Russia is on the back foot, this war has demonstrated their military weakness and if the US fully mobilises its economic and military support for Ukraine Putin’s days are numbered. The question though, is whether Putin understands his weakness, and is willing to negotiate?
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
I see you are still getting your information from the ISW (Institute for Wishful Thinking).
“— 9th March, the Anthropophagus has quitted his den
— 10th, the Corsican Ogre has landed at Cape Juan
— 11th, the Tiger has arrived at Gap
— 12th, the Monster slept at Grenoble
— 13th, the Tyrant has passed through Lyons
— 14th, the Usurper is directing his steps towards Dijon, but the brave and loyal Burgundians have risen en masse and surrounded him on all sides
— 18th, Bonaparte is only sixty leagues from the capital; he has been fortunate enough to escape the hands of his pursuers
— 19th, Bonaparte is advancing with rapid steps, but he will never enter Paris
— 20th, Napoleon will, tomorrow, be under our ramparts
— 21st, the Emperor is at Fontainbleau
— 22nd, His Imperial and Royal Majesty, yesterday evening, arrived at the Tuileries, amidst the joyful acclamations of his devoted and faithful subjects. ”
I rate Ben as being at about the 18th March stage of denial at this point.
Reading the document “Extending Russia” thinktank report spells out NATO US plans well before the Ukraine fiasco just shows how deluded this article of Ben is! The US NATO alliances have for decades planned these wars to keep Russia contained as with Iran, China etc.. Even the “Path to Persia” another Brookings Institute thesis planned well in advance of when these wars are to take place and they don’t hide there plans as they rightfully believe that no one would read them!
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf
So your post seems to be saying Russia will fold
Dream on
As far as attrition goes, that gets down to manpower, as always
Ukraine has no hope of a further successful mobilisation .They have chewed through everyone to the point where desertion, fleeing the country, civilian attacks on recruitment officers is rampant.
Ben, you’re pretty much alone in your assessment.Even the Washington Post has had to admit that Ukraine is losing big time.
Demographically, with so many of breeding age destroyed, and so many living in Europe and unlikely ever to come back, Ukraine is fucked.
As a functioning nation they would have been far better to go with the Minsk accords.
Mind you , the oligarchs have done well
Martyn – I guess the Ukrainian president and his family will be escaping to the UK shortly once the war ends…The USA will not host this family due to politics, and to give the future Ukraine administration a fresh start.
It will certainly be interesting to see how the new US government operates.
Putin must be forced to the negotiating table and in order to do that the US needs to put him under severe pressure. I see various ways this might be achieved:
Firstly, by giving Ukraine significantly more capability instead of the drip feeding of largely obsolete equipment, as has happened under Biden. There’s a whole raft of possibilities here. It might even require some covert US military operations within Ukraine to ‘assist’ them. Just like the destruction of the Nordstream II pipeline, the US could fly a B2 Spirit over Russian held territory in Ukraine and bomb the hell out of their assets and then just deny it. The B2 is invisible and untouchable. But I’ll leave the details to the Generals LOL
Secondly, Putin relies on oil exports to keep his economy moving. So just confiscate their cargoes. Use safety or environmental risk as an excuse.
The indications are that Russia is running out of key resources. Tanks and troops. If the current losses are maintained, Russia might soon simply run out of steam. Putin cannot afford to conscript the sons of the middle class in Moscow or St Peterburg because there will be a backlash. So just up the ante for a while longer.
Lastly, put a price on Putin’s head. Negotiate with his potential replacements to arrange a change of leadership. With him gone, peace can break out.
Good god Andrew, how many more billions do you think NATO taxpayers can afford
Probably the NATO countries are banking on swallowing up Ukraine and its resources to make good the loans
How do Ukrainians feel about losing their country?
Not to Russia but western corporations and bankers
And possibly they may think defeating Russia, splintering it and divvying up the spoils is going to be a bonanza
Your suggestions are environmentally diabolical .You think blowing up Nordstream was good for anyone.Trying to stifle Russia’s energy trade is going to piss off a whole lot of people, and drive up the price
Put a price on Putin’s head ?
What are you , The Mafia?
And as to Russia running out of resources …haha.
Andrew did write “key resources, Tanks and troops” so I don’t think that he was suggesting they would run out of their mineral resources etc. I think he correct in saying that Putin is the major obstacle so I suspect that war will continue till one side is defeated or another side gets involved, maybe the Pope will have a rush of blood and join with the coming US theocracy to propose a solution?
I’m on holiday at the moment, so can’t be bothered to respond with any real energy. However, these comments are gold, except from the one made by Andrew, that guy is obviously as high as a kite, or just stupid, I don’t like to cast judgement on his he functions. Anyway, let’s look at the positives here, it’s only going to be a few more months until this is over, then we can all move on to the next debacle – 2030 is just around the corner, so they’ll be a whole line up the shenanigans to enjoy.
Ben Morgans future summary.
Today President Zelenskyy in his last act as President of Ukraine before free elections ordered the Armed forces to lay down their arms as an act of solidarity with their Russian brothers.
Zelenskyy also took the opportunity to belatedly congratulate the Russian president Vladimir Putin on his recent election win noting that Western observers had deemed the Russian election to be “Free and fair” and expressed hope that Ukraine too could achieve the same results without another Ukrainian color revolution.
Due to Zelenskyy’s term expiring several months ago the President will not be running for reelection under the terms of the constitution yet to be rewritten.
The president stated that in good conscience he could not ask the Russia to sacrifice its estimated 286 fighter planes when Ukraine had successfully sacrificed nearly all of its air force of 62 planes and bemoaned the unfairness and costs imposed on Russia.
Zelensky also addressed the estimated 800,000 Ukrainian casualties and admitted it came about because of an Ukrainian disinformation plan.
In 2023 Ukrainian Major General Ima Fulofshit implemented a covert plan to trick Russia about the true casualty rate by instructing the Armed forces to dig fake graves viewable from space to entice Russians to not volunteer at the current rates of 40,000 per month, to further enhance the narrative videos of
Ukrainian forced conscription and beatings were faked.
The President also mused “If we don’t count the dead, did they really exist”? besides if they died who’s collecting the salary’s?
Addressing his sudden explosion in wealth since becoming president Zelenskyy was adamant that running the country was in reality just a high paid acting job and felt he was under compensated as a professional actor and comedian by at least half or 3 billion dollars.
The president and his inner circle were adamant they were totally honest and transparent with all the western “Aid” flowing into the country and openly acknowledged there were two sets of books, one for the western patrons and the other in case it got “Lost”
President Zelenskyy was asked about his future plans and wished to travel the world and open an “Export” business to 3rd world countries with his biggest supporters and business partners his inner circle.
Addressing the Russian gains of territory the President became animated for the first time in several months and raised his right arm shouting “We retreat, no surrender, Slave Ukraine” and when corrected being told it was no retreat, no surrender suddenly became deflated and replied “Nyet, English as a second language is a bitch”
In response from a question from the Kiev Jewish times about the alleged Neo-Nazi problem in the Ukrainian armed forces Zelenskyy stated ” Yes Ukraine is the only country in history to deliberately incorporate known Neo-Nazis into its armed forces however we don’t see the issue as worrisome. Russia had 24 million military and civilians deaths in WW2 which is only four times the amount of Jewish deaths in the Holocaust, what have they got to complain about? As a Jew “Never again” righteously only pertains to us”
The reports predating 2022 by Amnesty International, the IRC and other Western backed NGOs is propaganda pre designed to hurt Ukrainian interests.
The reports predating 2022 by Amnesty International, the IRC and other Western backed NGOs is propaganda pre designed to hurt Ukrainian interests.
To be clear this is not “Surrender” but is what a compassionate brother or human being would do to prevent someone getting hurt. Morally Ukraine is the winner which i hope is the new norm in conflict.
Addressing his new nickname trending on social media of “Minioppi” Zelenskyy was of the opinion it was unfair to compare him to Oppenheimer and his famous quote of “Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds” After all i went small and was only the destroyer of Ukraine…
Beautiful Finn, might I add the Bards contribution at Zs funeral oration.
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
And that neatly sums up the failed comedian.
Why do you useful idiots hate Zelensky so much?
I intend to travel to Russia and Ukraine when the war is over. To you it is just a theoretical exercise where you can vent your collective spleens and unleash vindictive vitriol against people you know nothing about.
I love Bens optimism. Russia he says is on the backfoot. Which is why they are advancing on every front, why the detritus of NATOs best armaments lay strewn about. Must be classic Russian deception tactics.
I can see Trump setting up an Apprentice style negotiation meeting with Zelenski and Putin to milk the ratings. Oligarch season 1, Special Operation edition.
Trump just suspended any further aid to Ukraine for 3 months. That should put Z and Starmer into a tailspin.
Firstly NJ and Finngrin, go to Russia and see what mayhem Putin’s jingoism has caused.
Ben can’t predict what is going to happen any more than better qualified experts such as Mark Galeotti or Bill Browder.
The war won’t be won by military means. That much is obvious.
Oil prices are the key. The US can flood the marketplace with oil, driving the price down and tanking Russia’s already stricken economy. Hopefully this will force Putin and Patrushev out of power. The majority of the Kremlin wants peace believe it or not!
More fud from PhuD.
If he cared to look around he’d see that Europe is in economic crisis, the US stagnant. Russia and Chinas economies are reported by idiots like Zeihan to be in crisis, people like Hudson report the exact opposite.
PhuD is correct that the war won’t be won militarily by the West, the Russian issue is how to win the peace. They could overrun Ukraine but that won’t provide anything but a larger problem. The real issue is how the whole of Europe can settle both parties security concerns. Ukraine can’t do this.
I’d suggest PhuD rethinks his oil contention. The US can produce heaps of petroleum and light distillates. That won’t provide the diesel and bunker oil required to run the world’s transport. Sanctions on Russian oil will only strangle economies and put more money in the Kremlins coffers.
Bill Browder? The international criminal?
Browder is currently at Davos (sort of says it all) encouraging the theft of the frozen Russian assets. I’m sure the big money is looking at their investments in Russia wondering what the Russians will take from them in return?
After looting and committing fraud in Russia, Browder now has a new career in the west, lucrative propagandising
Booming economy, low inflation, skyrocketing wages and full supermarkets. I don’t have to go to Russia I can visit it online and in real time.
By all means flood the market with oil and impose more sanctions, hows that working out for the West?
Brics baby Brics. Russian no longer needs the West.
Western democracy’s are in free fall, Germany is collapsing and wants to ban the main opposition party because we don’t agree with them, heck the west no longer pretends to be for the people. France and the Canadian government has abyssal ratings are are due for elections, Surprise, surprise the first round of elections cancelled because of “Russian influence” turned out to be false and the cancelled Politician is leading in opinion polls.
Chin up old lad, at least a broken clock is right twice a day.
“…a broken clock is right twice a day…”, unless its digital, in which case it shows nothing. 80% approval ratings? Bah, humbug! Obviously Russian propaganda! Reality only exists within NATO echo chambers apparently.
Low inflation in Russia? You are really in cloud cuckoo land! Go there and find the truth FG.
Matter of common sense Ovid I would argue, where pay increases are nearly outstripping inflation then yes. Russia had a 40 Trillion surplus in December the highest since 2013 that’s astounding for a war economy.
More fud from PhuD.
If he cared to look around he’d see that Europe is in economic crisis, the US stagnant. Russia and Chinas economies are reported by idiots like Zeihan to be in crisis, people like Hudson report the exact opposite.
PhuD is correct that the war won’t be won militarily by the West, the Russian issue is how to win the peace. They could overrun Ukraine but that won’t provide anything but a larger problem. The real issue is how the whole of Europe can settle both parties security concerns. Ukraine can’t do this.
I’d suggest PhuD rethinks his oil contention. The US can produce heaps of petroleum and light distillates. That won’t provide the diesel and bunker oil required to run the world’s transport. Sanctions on Russian oil will only strangle economies and put more money in the Kremlins coffers.
What rubbish Natter Jack!
Tell me PhuD, have you any quals in palaeontology? Have you worked for an oil company? Do you understand anything about different grades of crude? If you have you will understand why your comments on oil are bunkum.
It is all over bar Zelensky scuttling off somewhere. A shooting war at great cost of people and resources is hardly anyone’s idea of a good thing.
Russia however was not about to capitulate to NATO, NATO members or US Imperialism that we’re increasingly encroaching on its borders. Hard lessons all round.
It’s been interesting over the last year watching you bovver bros piling into Ben because he has the temerity to publish a reasoned opinion that you don’t like. Ben never disparages anyone unlike you lot.
The number of times in the last year that you lot have claimed, with no evidence, that Ben was talking rubbish and that the Ukrainians would be toast by breakfast. At least for the Russians the breakfast is proving indigestible!
Fingrin et al, as students of the Russian Orthodox School of Economics can you explain how interest rates at 21%, inflation at 9.7% and the Ruble trading at 1 cent against the USD are signs of a booming economy?
Incidentally, I was in Thailand recently and the place was crawling with young military age Russians. What a surly scruffy bunch, just the people to usher in a new Age of Enlightenment.
I wonder if you encountered young Ukrainian men among that lot?They still speak primarily Russian , and God knows , avoiding the draft has become a huge problem for recruiters.
Wages have risen in Russia, and infrastructure is now being built to facilitate the re industrialisation that sanctions have incurred.
Meanwhile European economies are floundering.And ours isn’t looking too flash either
Do yourself a favour. Check Bens headlines for the last year. Line those up with what actually happened.
And you predicted the fall of Odessa NJ. Nuff said.
Just delayed.
I predict the whole war will be over within 6-10 weeks with little fanfare. Something Biden could also have accomplished btw, but refused to do since his big military sponsors would not allow it.
I remember watching the news in 1975? and seeing the copters evacuating the US Embassy in Saigon. Deja Vu?
No – there is no conspiracy here. Arms’ sales are incidental here.Biden was bound by the stupid ideology of incrementalism. Students of history will note that the same policy applied in the Korean and Vietnam wars and led to disastrous outcomes. KGB thugs have to be stood up to.
The war will be over when Putin is removed. Nazi Germany fell as soon as Hitler committed suicide.
Sensible words Kiwijoker. Trouble is all the Putinist conspiracy theorists on this blog are so caught up in fantasy land that they can’t see the truth.
The truth according to PhuD, very Alice in Wonderland.
And I think senility is setting in with you NJ. You were denying that there were North Korean soldiers fighting against Ukraine recently. Convinced yet?
The problem with you conspiracists is that you treat virtually all reputable news sources as if they were deliberately unbalanced and welcome the Russian propaganda channels as if they were absolutely reliable. You are duped by the KGB/FSB! Yes RT, Sputnik, TASS, etc are continuing to run disinformation, lies and you people believe it! Useful idiots!
Russia’s just playing boa constrictor. Very low loss of resources, compared to the Ukrainians who literally have none to spare.
The “desperate throw everything at the doughty Ukrainian soldiers, pip-pip” narrative is just jingoistic fantasy from the Anglo-American “Full Spectrum Domination” iimperialist complex, of which Ben and his followers are mere (un?)witting tools and fools.