Latest Roy Morgan is out:
National 31% (-2.5)
Labour 24% (-2)
Act 18% (+4)
Greens 12.5% (+3.5)
NZF 5.5% (+0.5)
TPM 4% (-2)
TOP 2% (-2)
ACT soar to 18% and the Left are being murdered because we are haemorrhaging male voters.
Turns out middle class woke dogma drives male voters into the arms of the right…
On an overall basis men are heavily in favour of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 57.5% almost double Labour/Greens on 31%. This high support among men is the basis of the clear lead National/ Act NZ have overall. In contrast, support among women is evenly split between the governing Labour/Greens coalition on 41.5% and the potential National/Act NZ coalition on 41%.
A large majority of 66.5% of older men aged 50+ support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government compared to under a quarter, 23.5%, who support the governing Labour/ Greens coalition.
There is a slightly closer result for younger men aged 18-49 with a clear plurality of 49% supporting a potential National/Act NZ coalition government compared to just over a third, 37.5%, who support the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition.
…what was that Marama?
…charming.
Tell men they are the problem long enough in an identity politics landscape, and they become the problem!
It’s funny. I pointed out how middle class identity politics buying into culture wars we couldn’t win would kill us as a movement by driving Male voters into the arms of the right, and lo and fucking behold I’m right!
Yet for pointing this out, I’m the arsehole!
We are seeing in this Roy Morgan Poll the cultural backlash to woke culture wars with male voters so alienated from the Left they are running into the arms of ACT.
We need to focus on the common ground between us, not pure temple echo chambers that cancel people for missing pronouns, mispronouncing Te Reo or suggesting female comedians aren’t funny.
It’s not over, Roy Morgan polls over a whole month so would have barely caught the Free Dental announcement, but we really need to have a wee chat with our Woke comrades about how to win friends and influence people.
Here’s a start, not all white people are irredeemable cross burning racists, not every male is a rapist and not everyone who defends free speech is a uniform wearing Nazi who hates the Trans community!
Good news though the Greens have found a freakishly new way of winning, by being slightly less gutless than Labour!
Winston is just holding on by his finger nails and the Maori Party continue to be set for the highest win in their political history.
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Labour having reduced New Zealand’s economy to the position second to last in the world behind Equatorial Guinea should be enough to scare every New Zealander from voting Labour.
This is extremely serious stuff.
Where did you pull that statistic from? In 2022, New Zealand was rated 29 after the UK at 28 and above Italy at 30 on the WorldData.info list of the fifty wealthiest countries “measured by gross domestic product per capita and adjusted by the purchasing in the respective country.”
In a brief indicator the site also states: “GDP in New Zealand reached USD 48,249 per capita, or 247.23 billion USD for the whole country. New Zealand is therefore currently ranked 50 of the major economies. If this is calculated per inhabitant, taking purchasing power parity into account, then New Zealand is in the list of the world’s richest countries in place 29.
Inflation in New Zealand in 2022 was around 7.17%. Within the EU, the average in the same year was 8.83 percent. In the United States, it was most recently 8.00%.”
No mention of Equatorial Guinea.
Keep up the good work Martyn, you can push it higher. 25%?
I’ve voted Labour/Green all my life and I can’t see how a left leaning voter would suddenly support the far right policies of Act.
Perhaps the don’t know cohort has changed. In 2020 a lot of centre/right voters may have stayed home. National were a shambles, Act were negative whiners and Jacinda was doing okay.
Now in 2023, National look strong, Act are pushing the popular policy buttons and they are ready to vote again.
Now it’s the centre/left voters, especially men, who have lost faith in Labour and been attacked by the Greens so its their turn to be the don’t know won’t vote group.
The voting percentage might be the same but different people will be voting in 2023
Because some people on the Left own firearms and are definitely not happy about being shafted by Labour. That’s my reason, Peter.
Well, Rat in a cage, you are a truly shallow little vermin, aren’t you?
I’m a single issue voter. Should I just smile & take a good shafting? Would you? I guess we’ll find out with the new Government, won’t we? You’ll love it!
Blokes who vote left suddenly find the left has left them. The working guy who built the left finds the left no longer wants to represent him, speak to him, care for him. Act points out they will defund the identity groups that want to screw him. Then when Act wins and let’s loose the robber barons and the housing foreign buyer club and ordinary kiwis will be doubly screwed.
I’d say that’s a pretty fair assessment.
Doesn’t make sense to me that the Greens’ “wokeness” is pushing people to ACT when this very same poll shows a 2.5% bump for them, it’s honestly a pretty classist notion imo to suggest that trans rights are so controversial that they will instantly make working people vote against their own self interest…
Labour’s failures & lack of Left wing values has pushed Left voters from Labour towards the Greens. Hence the boost.
Quit being a build ups.
At least TDB reports the Poll it even when it doesn’t favour the Left. By contrast, Stuff prefers to run stories on racist Southland councillors and the high prices of menstrual products and somehow ‘overlooks’ this poll. That says it all really.
F… China. Our policies will no longer for sale once we have a decent government.
China get back into you box.
Here in NZ we will rule our own affairs after the election in October.
Don’t think the John Key’s protege will do that, JKT.
Key was nine years kissing and cuddling up to China and will have a few words in Luxon’s ear like, “Keep the status quo” – and he will. Betcha!
‘ACT soar.’ I’m truly amazed. I’ve gone beyond despair and now I’m in a laboratory of my own making trying to find the confounding logic of such a thing.
Thirty nine years ago roger douglas and derek quigly begat ACT in an sweaty, unholy greed-pit alliance of non productive wanna be multi-billionaires and their all bought and paid for deviant traitor politicians.
They then set about to destroy that which gave Aotearoa/New Zealand its noble standing within a modern and progressive post war society of global intellectuals, artists and local, sustainable-practices, farmers who are our only source of exports derived income.
Now. Today. That’s all behind us.
Our universities are in grim tatters, our arts and its funding’s been reduced to a pathetic scribble on a desk top, our culture is at war with itself and our normal, simple-needs people are living in doorways or in cars with their kids… and Roger and Derek’s ACT soars, so you loudly and proudly proclaim.
ACT is a politically infectious disease from which there seems to be no defence or cure.
You fucking morons who will vote for Rogers Robot will get what you deserve. A burning AO/NZ waist deep in dirt cheap foreign labour.
At this point, there is no way it can be worse than what we have now. Also the ACT in 2023 is not the same beast as ACT of 1994 when Douglas was in control (just like this is not Muldoon’s National, or Lange’s Labour).
Sorry, Nitrium, but I fear you are about to learn how history echoes.
Rymes.* fixed it for you.
I’m not convinced because the facts say otherwise.
douglas was a red herring traitor who was secreted within Labour to castrate Labour from within.Why? Because Labour had union power behind it whereas National, while they had farmer money knew well they never had the numbers to vote for their enduring survival. That, just happened to coincide with trade union deregulation etc and the reemergence of national who returned to power once Lange was executed by douglas and his caucus minions.
muldoon was just a cheap big-thinking bully crook in a cheaper suit who dropped dead while drunk. Perhaps as he scurried back from Switzerland while clutching his brief case. You will know, I’m guessing, that he had a numbered bank account there.
The deeper, darker reason behind all the seemingly unconnected faux-msm ( Main Stream Media) investigating, tedious political brinkmanship and general petty racketeering is money. Namely, who’s is it, but more critically, where is it?
The Department of Statistics told me there were/are fifty thousand people framing in AO/NZ and like it or not, farming is what we do to earn, from exporting, our money.
Based upon that blindingly obvious cold-light-of-day reality, that must mean we’re constantly living within an MSM generated micro-world of financial myth and legend and of vast amounts of disappeared money. Am I wrong? If so, evidence please? Convince me otherwise? None of what we see, do, live, love and lie about is real. AO/NZ is entirely and completely enmeshed in a logical fallacy matrix spun by the msm at the behest of what must surely be the most imbedded set of crooks, shysters, con artists and racketeers known to modern politics. Aye Boys?
AO/NZ = 14 multi-billionaires, 3118 multi-millionaires with in excess of $50 million nett each and four now foreign owned banks permitted and enabled by our politicians to remove $180.00 a second in nett profits 24/7/365 from our small population of 5.2 million where only 3 million are of taxes paying and voting age and it appears that I’m the only one going ” Hang on a minute!” Is a terrifying thing for me personally if I must be truthful. People! We’re being glaringly, rudely and unashamedly burgled.
Fuck you’re deranged.
FFS learn your economic history, we were going broke, an economy based on 80m sheep, where the government guaranteed farmers 20 bucks a lamb and sold it for 15, and made the difference by borrowing the rest. This was on of top crazy think big projects Our currency had tanked and we ran out of others other people’s money to prop us up , our foreign reserve where almost gone, forcing a currency devaluation and float. We lived in a fools paradise then, as we do now and some sharp medicine is going to be needed again
well said Jonny
” ACT soar to 18% and the Left are being murdered because we are hemorrhaging male voters ”
That support has been cemented in since Chipkins took the leadership.
Its where the woman’s vote ends up and maybe Chipkins with a strong debate performance may swing some back but the deficit is there.
The coming economic news won’t be pretty and it will give the incoming NACT government all the excuses they need to embark on the next wave of austerity measures that will not affect the six figure salary club.
Abandon hope, all ye who enter here…
…the Woke have awoke.
A pity that being woke is different from being awake and aware.
“ … the woke have awoke.” I doubt it. They may be maintaining a belated silence, but a leopard does not change its spots. They have shown us what they are, and heterosexual males are not alone in dumping them.
It’s not men leaving the Left, the Left despise the working class and so the working class are responding accordingly.
Paul Embery wrote about this a while ago and he was on the money then, check out his book “Despised: Why the Modern Left Loathes the Working Class”
Agreed they do and until they don’t they the left will lose big time. They have to have a reawakening.
I’m not male but I agree that there is huge anger from the working class towards Labour. Throwing us under the bus is finally bringing a backlash. It was going to happen eventually.
Claiming the anger is solely about ”wokeness” when that wokeness is mostly a distraction seeking to hide a complete absence substantive policies in a downturn that is drowning the poor as if it were an unwanted litter of kittens in some ghastly middle-class family – is just making this working-class voter angrier.
Well said.
hear hear
100% Yeti
The left ceased to be a working-class movement about 25 years ago and the rusted-on old Labour voter has only just begun to realize. In so many ways ACT is the party of the today’s working class: The tradies, the truckies and the construction workers. All they want is to be left alone by Wellington and have more left in their pockets once the taxman has taken his share.
Short-sighted, selfish gits is what you seem to be saying.
Because everyone with a job should work extra hard to pay more of their income to those who contribute nothing to society, or worse, create nothing but havoc? To do otherwise is selfish?
Under National you will still work extra hard but for a much lesser income which will create nothing but havoc.
In vino mendacium.
” In so many ways ACT is the party of the today’s working class: ”
Are you seriously for real mate ?
ACT the unofficial party of the working class.
ACT will in the next parliament support the National party to abolish Fair Pay Agreements and do their best to attack your tradies , truckies and construction workers labour rights to job security , fair pay and protection from ACT’s unscrupulous business mates who are donating to ensure THEY dominate in every aspect of minimising these guys rights as employees.
That is just one example.
ACT also supported the last Nasty Nat government while they ran down funding health and education and support raising the age of retirement from 65 to 67 which means that your construction workers and other manual labour physically exhausted men by the time they reach 60 will have to wait seven more years for their pension and these guys you refer to are often out of work as they are no longer useful in the drive for more profit and can’t get a job.
ACT is as far away as the moon when it comes to your idea of the working class. Look at who is donating to ensure that polices like the removal of FPA’s as one example is not about looking after construction workers and many other hard working men and women who deserve so much more than what they are getting under unregulated capitalists and ignorant people like you who think they know what is good for the working class without really taking the time to understand what being working class actually means and how exploited they are by NACT and the current LINO party that pretends to be in it for you but is led by a guy who in his own words is a fiscal conservative.
If ACT was for the working class then why oppose every piece of legislation that would be detrimental in the interests of the working class for the last 30 years ?
By cutting taxes and the amount they will get is miniscule and getting ‘ Wellington ‘ off their backs will mean an under funded health service when they are sick and limited resources for their kids in the education system unlike the private schools that ACT support on behalf of their wealthy constituents.
” If ACT was for the working class then why oppose every piece of legislation that would be detrimental in the interests of the working class for the last 30 years ?
” Oppose ” is inncorrect my meaning was support !
Very skilled, independent minded, but woefully ignorant and uneducated.
Just how the boss class likes them.
But Paul, in most of these cases they are their own boss. That’s the big difference. Yours is 1950’s thinking.
The major institutions of the ‘Left’ have been captured & ideologically-subverted by an arrogant, authoritarian cadre within the Professional-Managerial Class … doggedly pursuing self-interest despite all the ostentatious moral posturing … exhibiting obvious elitist & oligarchical tendencies … systematically scapegoating Labour’s traditional core constituency (low / low-middle income Pakeha) into a degraded second-class citizenship … in health, housing, increasing moves to disenfranchisement.
Middlemen have sneaked in to doing what they always have done.
Yep
It is now no longer inconceivable that ACT could out poll National such is their unappealing nature.
Less inconceivable that ACT could = Labour poll
Well said Yeti. It is the old adage – I never left the Labour Party – The Labour Party left me! forgot who said that but so true. I also believe that the urban working class now has more in common with the provincial/rural voters – whom CT calls Heartlanders than they do with the Professional Managerial classes that now dominate Labour. Jose Pagani was onto this two years ago.
” It is the old adage – I never left the Labour Party – The Labour Party left me! forgot who said that but so true ”
Jim Anderton said that in 1989 after the former Labour party president was forced out after Rogernomics then went on to form the NLP and formed the Alliance of the smaller parties at that time and was supported by over 20 % of the vote.
The current LINO party left its former supporters sometime back after Helen , some would argue well before 1999 and throw a few crumbs to its marginalised former bottom feeders then after shafting them ask for their vote every three years to support the managerial class and the wealthy by not advocating for a fair tax system.
The idea that two interlocked major parties LINO and the Nasty Natz should continue to be ” main ” parties under MMP is due for an overhaul.
I’m still picking Labour in the low 20’s, Greens are soaking up the woke voters from Labour who are pissed at Labour, but logically, one is as bad as the other, so quite why they’d go Green is a mystery.
I agree ACT are feasting on male voters alienated by Labour, the same voters who can’t suppress the urge to vomit in the polling booth if they voted National because National is National, in equal amounts to voting Labour Green but because of their wokeness.
A change is a coming. The real question is, will Labour ever come back from this credibility erasing 6 years? I’m seeing a very very damaged brand!
You vote Green because it’s still a Left wing party, while Labour carries the blame for the complete mess New Zealand is in because they “acted alone” with their unprecedented majority, so are sole responsible for the chaos.
Ahhh I wondered where Krautus Haus went too. Now known as Rat in a cage.
How did you guess? A real mastermind.
So Labours neoliberal supporters have fled to Act! Oh what a surprise. The Lange , Douglas effect.
Chickens, Home, Roost.
NZF is the only protest vote alternative.
Not voting is the only REAL protest vote!
In a democracy people who don’t vote get the government they deserve
People who vote are voting for the status quo. There is no real change.
We need a No Confidence party so the protest vote gets tallied.
If the no con vote was tallied, the system would collapse.
Meh! Winston says all the popular things but I have zero confidence he believes ANYTHING he says nor any confidence in him to follow through.
Baubles of power anyone?
Just like all of them. This is more about crashing the political system. Within 6 months, another election will ensue.
Winston is pretty consistent. Social conservative. Economic nationalist. He doesn’t appear to have changed much since he was part of the Muldoon, NZ The Way You Want It, government. Not neo-liberal and not woke.
” Not neo-liberal and not woke. ”
Your wrong !!
Winston as treasurer in 1996-98 never rolled any neo liberal policies back nor did he insist that the price for his support in 2002 was major reform of the free market. Again in 2005 he was more interested in jetting overseas as Foreign minister than fighting the inequities and cruelty of neo liberal economics affecting many of his elderly supporters but did produce the Gold card which was one of his better initiative’s.
What Winston maybe able to do in a tightly hung parliament that gives National more than the 32 % they are getting now and will need Winston’s vote on legislation while he agrees to support the Nasties with confidence and supply will be a stop gap to Seymour’s agenda which is why the members of ACT are currently spooked by NZF support in what could still be a finely hung parliament post October 14th.
Winston may well hoover up a lot of dissatisfied LINO voters who sense LINO will fall but want a safeguard against the extreme NACT government.
Well, the ACT train is looking more attractive, CHOO CHOO..
Modern trains are electric, you backward troglodite
Look out for strategic voting by disillusioned left wing voters supporting National to keep Act honest.
I really didn’t want to agree with Martyn on this, as I thought we were better than that.
At work I told someone to ‘step up’ and ‘show some initiative’. They reported me for being ‘rude’ and cited their ‘hurt feelings’.
Jesus wept, snowflake doesn’t even begin to describe it!
Is that true – that it happened, and to you Roy? Please confirm honestly, as we know that it is a temptation to quote probable happenings as real, or gather together separate events to make one good story. Journalists have been known to do this to try and impress on everyone how bad the situation is, but their fault was that they didn’t write it up as a possibility, but instead as a reality.
You reap what you sow.
Seems peeps are prepared to swallow a few ACT dead policy rats, because that is surpassed by there angry annoyance at Labors failed term and debt ridden accounts for no results.
Ok, looks like my vote for Labour will be wasted, now as a renter I cannot vote for 7 houses Luxon, the greens hate me, ACT it is.
In an ideal world, none of the current parties would win.
Toadstool
With that stupid attitude you will never become a healthy Mushroom. Into the compost with you.
At 24% lots of MPs could get wiped out. Does Labour’s post election leader Mike Wood get cleaned out in Mt Roskill? How about Mcanulty?
Dance of the desperate time for Labour.
People wonder why NZ is so unproductive then repeatedly on this blog Luxon is denigrated for owning 7 properties .He could have just left the money in the bank and earnt a nice amount of interest and no one would know his wealth . Instead he has invested it into realm estate providing homes for renters or office space for businesses. It is the true tall poppy syndrome at work .
Owning 7 properties has a better tax break than lending money to a bank to lend to businesses to create real productive jobs.
Owning 7 properties shows he doesn’t have the creativity to become an entreprenuer and create a new business.
Owning 7 properties shows he gets a tax break for not investing in shares in productive NZ businesses.
Owing 7 properties shows he’s a speculator landlord getting a big tax break and when he becomes prime minister he is going to give himself an even bigger tax break.
Nothing productive to see here.
Real estate investment is not productive. It reaps from the poor, and harvests for the banks.
Thats why the NZX etc have been trying desperately to get kiwis into shares for decades.
As bad as its going to be the village needs to be destroyed in order to save it.
It’s the truth. A message sent loud and clear, you make promises, you honour them. Don’t operate hidden agendas. Don’t ever ever toy with one person one vote. Cut the ideological shit to the barest of bare minimums because the citizens of thus country are not lab rats for you to experiment on!
You’ve hit the nail on the head!
Labour have abandoned working people and have shown they have scant regard for the sanctity of democracy. Perhaps they’ve become arrogant or don’t yet understand what they’ve done.
Well said, a good summary of everything wrong with the present government. Did I say “everything”? We could add “Don’t bankrupt the country” too.
Tell men they are the problem long enough in an identity politics landscape, and they become the problem!
________
Stale pale males have anyways been the problem not the solution.
Stale pale males built most of this country over the last 150 years so you can enjoy the current std of living.
No need to thank us, wed have done it anyway
You did it to serve yourselves and the country is fucked because of it.
Thanks for nothing.
NZFirst will pull back Act… once the drongo labour, TPM and greens realise their goose is cooked they’ll turn to Peters to pull back and muzzle the Twerking twit
Peters like a majority of NZ people does not want anythink to do with Labour this time around .When the party reforms with leaders to replace Little and Davis and others it may be worth looking at.
Cool!
Given that this poll shows the ACT party is only 6 points behind the current governing and oldest political party in the country, I propose something that would have sounded absurd a few years ago but seems totally reasonable now:
We either stop referring to ACT as a minor party or start referring to Labour as a minor party. On polling with 6% in it, you can’t credibly have it both ways any longer. Given that 2002 National have been in a worse spot before and picked themselves up, I’d say the former of these options is most appropriate.
ACT is no longer a minor party, and it’s consistently polled as the third most popular political party for almost 3 years running.
Billy Braggs response to Anthony Oliver’s redneck protest song.
https://youtu.be/qGNFR7pgxDY?si=Ij41tPvwuaLZRmRE
Great interview he did outlining why he rewrote the song.
https://news.sky.com/video/oliver-anthony-billy-bragg-rewrites-rich-men-north-of-richmond-12945848#:~:text=Mr%20Bragg%20rewrote%20the%20hit,him%20to%20join%20a%20union.&text=Singer%2Dsongwriter%20Billy%20Bragg%20has,which%20made%20US%20chart%20history.
Any male lefty thinking of swinging on over to Seemore Cutts should give both a listen
One thing is for certain, the left male supporter has most certainly not left because they support the hideous female Nicola Willis and her horrid destructive policies.
It ain’t over til the fat electorate sings, come voting day.
My prediction: the left block win all! NACT in opposition another 3 years. 🙂
All it needs is a voracious Left political talker, but where would that come from in this etiolated Left sphere? The amusing thing is if it doesn’t come from the people and reality it will come from the anti-democratic fascist forces that necessarily follow from informal rich rule.