BOOM: TV 3 Poll – NationalACT hard right Government – Chippy is running out of time

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
61
2232

 

LABOUR – 32.3%

NATIONAL – 36.6%

ACT – 12.1%

GREENS – 9.6%

NZF – 4.1%

Māori Party – 2.7%

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TV3 and TVNZ Polls are notorious for under-polling Labour and over-polling National so these numbers after the worst of Labour’s self-mutilation are amazing.

That the Māori Party polls so poorly is no surprise, they’ve always polled poorly in the main network polls.

The Roy Morgan Poll that shows a splintered MMP spectrum is taken over the whole month so that generates a different vibe.

The good news is that Labour can win this if Chippy goes big, look at the preferred PM numbers and trust levels…

…Kiwis trust Chippy, and Chippy must lead.

Right now, all Labour are impotently promising is GST off fresh fruit and vegetables, instead of utilising this leak and leveraging it politically,  they will just insipidly roll it out rather than surprise the Electorate by taking GST off ALL food, this after the disappointment of the Wealth Tax.

Labour have no policy and are as weak as the Greens. Political cowardice is never rewarded and until Labour grows a spine and makes an actual stand they will continue to slide.

Labour either stand for something or they hang for everything.

Labour either grows a spine, takes GST off all food or they hand this election over to the hard Right.

You’ve run out of road Chippy, go bold or go home.

 

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61 COMMENTS

      • Still no reporting available on the factions inside Labour — they need to roll Chippy now, but who is in which faction, and who has the numbers?

    • National/ Act are toast looking at this poll…

      That is the best they can muster a with the huge amounts of money that they have had thrown at them and the fact that they have been campaigning for a long time whilst Labour haven’t even started yet and are still within the margin of era. That is incredible considering all the dirt that that simpleton Willis has been paying people to dig up.

      Luxon obviously suffers from’ Premjac’ and has shot his bolt way too soon. His policies are absolutely fundamentally sheer stupidity and on top of that he’s hopeless with the media buckling under the slightest pressure. You can see the media pulling their punches to try and give him a fighting chance when asking him about his loopy poorly costed policies but even then he cocks it up.

      He’s not over his numbers and how he ever became a CEO is beyond me. He knows nothing about the complexities of civil engineering and obviously neither do his advisors or the people that he choses to listen to.
      He’s just a tunnel visioned anti abortionist god botherer who has no business being in politics or putting himself up for running a country.
      A month is a long time in politics especially leading up to an election. Chippy and J T are about to have him for breakfast!
      Seymour is just a goofy goofball dweeb. The town clown really. What a combo to take N.Z into what will be a disturbingly complex fraught and dangerous future !!

      • Thank you Grant for this voice of reason in a sea of right wing hyperbole. Seriously who thinks Luxon or Seymour are prime minister material. Its very scary to think that either of these two could be representing NZ. I wonder if this poll was taken pre. money for roads from the Chinese. Do these right wing zealots not care that none of the policies are costed, do they not care that public services will be cut. Do they not care that Luxon hasn’t a clue .

    • Ever get tired of saying specious, stupid shit sonny?, ’cause you’ve been pointless, petty, and irrelevant for a while now.. When you going to do more than show us why putting tory stooges into power will always end badly..?

  2. Seymour is almost the more prefer Ed PM than Luxon.

    Voters want to make Seymour the next PM and Luxon can be deputy.

    Labour will end up on about 32 on the night, so that’s about right.

    • HAPPY BIRTHDAY CHRIS LUXON, WHO HAD HIS BIRTHDAY JULY 19th, TURNING THE BIG 53.
      I DECIDED TO WRITE A TONGUE IN CHEEK POEM, TO MARK HIS MILESTONE:

      What cunning secrets shall I keep, what agendas do I hide. What tasks will I undertake, what schemes can I devise…Will my tactics be meticulous, or will they be slap dash. A carefully executed chess move, or something rather rash…Do I sip on some dutch courage, or keep clear headed precision. Will I do it in the shadows, or broad daylight in full vision…Will it be a frenzied onslaught, or a stabbing lightning thrust. And if he shows resistance, then pacify him I must…Myriad times I’ve fantasized, about his grizzly end. With each blunder, gaffe, and backfire, he’s driving me round the bend…

      In the footsteps of Cassius and Caesar, I tread softly contemplating. “Ista quidem vis est”, my destiny is awaiting…Will it happen at close quarters, with a Tanto or Katana. Or should I go for more exotic, like a damascus Tsubagatana…Or maybe try old school, with my trusty combat bowie. Or initiate at close range, with Patterson trocur, or Gil Hibben throwy…Perhaps a poison tip Sykes dagger, or perhaps au naturel. Hidden in my pants suit, or in newspaper rolled up well…Jagged and blunt and rusty, or is razor sharp the best. Buffed to a brilliant shine, and oiled to maintain it’s zest…

      Desperate times need desperate measures, when I’ll savagely betray his trust. From bottomfeeders to business leaders, will go along with my bloodlust…His first mistake was having faith in me, a soulmate he thought he’d found. But when he’s least expecting it, I’ll slay him to the ground …With his net favourability polling below zero, he can’t go bumbling on. There’s no comeback for him now, no encore, no swansong…

      My instinct is to grab the wheel, and turn the ship around. And bid adios to Aloha, by cutlass take him down… And bring us back from the brink, of that opposing wilderness. A moment to cherish and savor, my serenity, my bliss…Time for armchair warriors, to quietly slip aside. For the naysayers to retreat, and let the girl of action hit her stride…Like a cougar about to pounce, like a wolf stalking her prey. Like an eagle with talons drawn, my scabbard will have it’s way…I’ll strike while the iron is hot, for it may be my only chance. Fait accompli awaits the jetsetter, when I introduce him to my lance…

      Ice cold shiv I tightly grasp, within my clammy hand. I do this for my party, for my country, for my land…My assassins heart starts pounding loudly, the seconds ticking by. The hairs bristle on my neck, and perspiration stings my eye…Poised and locked and loaded, my intentions crystal clear. I ignore all distraction, when I sense his presence near… Familiar footsteps now approach, and soon I glimpse him too. Even more beige than beige, about to meet his Waterloo…No longer our shiny new hope, his leadership he can’t reprise. He’s reached the end of the road, all that’s left is his demise…A highflyer from the business world, where he often thrived. About to be foreclosed on, zero hour has arrived…

      So this is what it’s come to, this is the culmination. What my training has prepared me for, after much anticipation…Great drama flows slow motion, shimmering sabre close to hand. Oblivious of my menace, this will be his final stand…I seize the opportunity, long blade now unconcealed. In scimitar flash I lunge at him, my ambush all revealed…The bell tolls for thee ding ding, the countdown of his life, It’s baldys birth day today, surprise, I’ll cut the cake with my favorite knife.

  4. Were this accurate but I suspect they are now late 20’s in reality, Chippy would be better to call an early election because at 32.3%, Labour are toast, but not at Chernobyls Reactor 4 toast that they will be come mid October. Shit is going wrong across the board now. Time is not Labours friend anymore! Come October I’m picking low 20’s!

  6. The preferred PM is not that big a deal in my opinion. We are not an American Presidential type of election. Personally, the leader of a party has very little influence on the way I vote. I tend to vote for the person I think will be serve my electorate – regardless of the party they belong to. Then I go for the party I think will do the least damage which, unfortunately, is probably the best one can hope for. I’ve no idea who that will be this time around aside from it not being Labour as they’ve shown that, even with a clear mandate, they don’t have any idea what they’re doing. I suspect, for me, like the last 2 elections, I will still be undecided when I walk into the polling booth.

    • You’re right Chris
      The preferred PM poll is just a function of how much a person is exposed on TV. For reference, Helen Clark was at 9% before she took office.

  7. Given a 20B hole is about to be exposed and the health system is about to collapse I don’t believe Labour’s basement has been reached. At 26.5 no list MPs will make it back, including Robertson.

  9. Absolutely Martyn, Labour have nothing to lose & everything to gain if they just announce some decent policy based on the many Fix NZ plans & sensible solutions that you have proclaimed on this blog, many times before! Go big or go Home, or if you aren’t with us, your with the Neoliberal National Party Terrorists aka George Dubya Bush, these should’ve been Labours catch cry this Election season? Better to go out with a bang rather than a whimper, because if National gets back in power with Act, this Country is absolutely stuffed FOREVER, they’ll be no coming back from this Catastrophic right wing union of Shock doctrine economics, we will be totally fucked into a 3rd World Hellhole, just watch the exodus to Australia explosion once Dr Evil, bald head Christian Luxon & the insidious Slimey Seymour gets in power!

  12. Anker, Nitrium, SaveNZ, XRay, and others on here will be loving this. They would do anything for

    Public services to be cut
    User charges imposed in healthcare
    State housing chopped
    Landlords given power to kick their tenants out on a whim
    Toll roads to be imposed, hurting the poor
    Minimum wage to be frozen, leading to thousands of workers to go without payrises
    Sick leave, paid holidays and paid time off, as well as lunch breaks to be chopped. Unions and collective bargaining to be possibly outlawed
    Water reticulation sold off
    Power prices allowed to skyrocket
    Rents allowed to skyrocket
    Farmers allowed to put what they like in the rivers, chocking them with nitrates
    All clean air regulations to be removed
    Schools privatized and given to churches who will teach creationism
    ACC cover to be slashed, ending weekly payments, and throwing long term claimants off the scheme
    Prisons to be privatized. Inmates to have no rights
    TVNZ barred from showing historical documentaries
    RNZ made to carry ads
    And much more

    Anker, despite my repeated questions has refused to say if she wants cuts to massive wages and conditions like ACT proposes. She has also refused to confirm if she supports removing prescription charges.

    • Millsy, in case you missed it Labour decided to turn the health system on its head taking it from borderline 3rd world to at best, Victorian. A decision made by a buffoon called Andrew Little, who knew exactly Jack Shit about health or making anything work, at a time it was abundantly evident Labour couldn’t run a piss up in a brewery, and to make it worse, mid pandemic.

      So here we are, 2023, ambulances at Waikato Hospital ED, stacked up 60 hours deep with status 2 patients lying in them wondering if the last thing they see ever is the fibreglass inner of an ambulance, meanwhile no Ambulances were available for anyone else. Te Whatu whatever its now called now would not front to answer questions!

      In other words Millsy, what ever you are banging on about is already fucked, by Labour!

    • Millsy aka Bert aka Labour Stooge
      It’ll be paradise! You’ll get to appreciate it and love it. First thing though, donus all a favour and stop reading the same old script that Jacinda…sorry, Chippie paid you to read again and again.

    • If Labour were not so exclusive and arrogant they might have some voters. You could say that Labour is losing so National can win and finish the job.

  14. TV3, or whatever they are call themselves now have little credibility or key viewership demographic.

    The Roy Morgan poll seems more credible. TV3 and TV1 are just viewed as garbage brands and unwatchable by those in the key demographic.

    I’m not interested in polls and debates served up by legacy/state media – their work lacks quality, and.. ummm, their reporters, their commentariate??.. their front-of-house staff are just total cringe.

    So gross.

  15. Hipkins coming slinking back with a no-deal to tax the criminally rich kick up the arse, said it all.
    However, we must remember that tvnz is like rnz. They’re both full of brain-farts and bull shit. I can’t watch televison and I can’t avoid rnz and I mean really, do people take either of them seriously? RNZ’s like tvnz in that they’re like a stale neo-liberal lap-chicken to the dodgy rich so we’re only going to see and read their narrative. Don’t panic. Yet.
    TVNZ looks like a bus load of worst dressed wax works dummies only dumber. If that’s the best the msm can cough up for luxon and seymour then we have little to worry about. Unless you can regard Labour and The Greens as something to worry about.
    If luxon get’s in then you’d better learn Mandarin because he’ll have already spent his Chinese bribe-money to get this far. If seymour makes it you can bet The Boys and many stupid cockies will have stuffed his little panties with hundred dollar bills.
    Put like that, doesn’t it look like we’re fucked?

  17. No surprise Luxon isn’t trusted….

    This morning on Morning Report he spoke of the ‘Coalition of Chaos’: “Labour, Greens, TPM and the Gangs!” Grow up, for god’s sake and stop being smart-arse.

    Then the debate in Parliament this afternoon the Egghead gave us his bedtime story about coming to the end of school term (read parliamentary term) – smug, condescending, ands unfunny, while his off-sider, Willis sat beside, him pseudo-smiling and cackling like a demented hen on cue.
    Pathetic and puerile.
    Seriously, whatever he is, he ain’t PM material!

    • Luxon won’t last as PM (and he will be PM come Oct) so you better get used to the idea of Nicola Willis as your Prime Minister

    • Totally agree Verity.

      Luxon is definitely NOT Prime Ministerial material and National are no where near mature enough or intelligent enough to govern.

      It would be absolutely disastrous for New Zealand….DISASTROUS!!!

    • Verity V. Yep, I saw something with Willis simpering, then talking like a teenage girl; I thought that she was tipped to topple Luxon, but she’s not exactly grown-up leadership material herself. Winston Peters is; Luxon is quite bizarre, he sort of quips, and thinks he’s being clever. Probably trained to do this, but glib rarely works, and that’s all he is, glib. So was Key.

    • We ALL know this ! No one is looking forward to the next three years especially old farts like moi. Labour did this to themselves! And the ONLY pollies who give a fuck about the people are outside of parliament! I mean take a good look at the collection of retards in the present government and just weep!

      • Shona, Yes, but the Nats are as bad. Hipkins is authentic, if nothing else; Peters is pretty authentic, so, unfortunately is Marama; the Maori party leaders are clowns, Willis looks as if she’s just enjoying herself, Luxon’s a total phoney, and Seymour may be best not thought about at all.

        If Hipkins could pull off a couple of big initiatives it could perhaps give him some sort of credibility, but Labour and the ghastly Greens have flunked it big time, and in terms of leaders, Peters has more and more appeal, which is one reason why the MSM are boycotting him. TOP, could be a wasted vote; one of their Wellington C candidates looks too woke for me to stick with them now.

        Hipkins, and his predecessor had big opportunities – the Parliamentary protest- Albert Park – Min of Education gender ID shenanigans – to showcase whatever values they may have, and their commitment to democracy, but they didn’t, and their secretive agendas redefined “ transparency “ too obscenely for me.

        • Labour also want to remove our free speech rights on top of all their other condescending racist initiatives to wreck our democracy. Luxon is a numpty Willis is a shrew and Seymour is dickhead.god help us!

          • Shona. Oh yes, Labour’s multi-pronged assault upon freedom of speech should see them permanently vanquished, just the way that they decided to silence the Commissioner for Vulnerable Children. The audacity of a Human Rights Commissioner, going to Wellington hoping to protest against women being allowed to talk beggars belief.

            Weep for our children, but be cautious about wanting help from Christopher Luxon’s or Commissioner Coster’s gods.

            • Free speech is used by hardline religious conservatives like you as a cudgel to attack and smear those who refuse to live by the rules set out in the Bible.

              The sooner it is dispensed with, the better. Getting sick of people like you want to turn the clock back to the 1950’s.

              • Free speech is used by hardline religious conservatives like you as a cudgel to attack and smear those who refuse to live by the rules set out in the Bible.

                The sooner it is dispensed with, the better. Getting sick of people like you want to turn the clock back to the 1950’s.

                Millsy Right on point.
                They can keep[ their bloody religious bull crap out of politics.

                HATE speech of any DESCRIPTION is not FREE speech.

                Only have to look at the USA now .
                There is more anti LGTB laws in existence now than before stonewall in 1969.
                Thanks to religious bigots.

                Even republicans are now rebelling against the religious bigots who brought in into politics in the Reagan era.

  18. The price for medium size pumpkin in supermarket is currently 12 South Pacific Pesos. GST off that will really make the difference. Last time I paid 2.5 S.P.P. for the same sized pumpkin. It was not more than 2years ago. Does that mean NZ society suddenly values bland hollow hardheaded vegetables so much more? Or is there a shortage caused by most of those having highly paid jobs in Wellington?
    Or does pumpkin growing, harvesting and storage require highly skilled workforce? Similar to garlic, NZ grown is reaching 50 S.P.P./kg
    To be fair, vast majority of population lacks math skills needed to master the “complexities” of % calculation. Most journalist included. Result of World class education…and it will get better and better.

    • I grow both of these veges organically and sell my surplus for cash. Garlic $60 per kg guaranteed disease free and organic butter nuts depend on their size but a crate is $120.
      They are easy to grow. Otherwise I wouldn’t bother as I am lazy.

  19. Honestly if this was an elaborate plot to kill the Party of the Worker in this country one could only applaud the current crew. Cause they did fuck this party to nowhere for a long long time.

    Not voting for the maternal leave bill that had support across aisle.
    Promoting the idea of volunteer wardens to make up for paid coppers.
    Hospitals closing their ERs due to dangerous levels of understaffing.
    kids leaving schools not knowing how to read, write and do basic math.
    trains not running on time if they run at all, ditto for buses, trams a billion dollar whole to nowhere
    no houses build to really matter, not enough bought either
    and the economy in free fall as no one has any pennies left to spend on anything
    Vote comrade vote. Your choices are all shite. But vote nevertheless, cause shite is all that we have to offer. Politics NZ.

  20. Millsy you will get Sick Leave and you will have a kiwi doctor ( from Luxon s new Waikato Uni Med School )to see you in a timely fashion.

    • Marco+ Battler Millsy will be just fine. He just needs to ring an ambulance and Luxon’s under-employed perv doctor will follow him wherever he goes, but nobody, nobody at all, should be subject to the University of Waikato. That’s where the mean Commissioner who wants to silence women comes from, and a few historically noisy women did too. Mr Peters will return commonsense to Parliament when he gets returned, and if he can halt the ID gender ideology being inflicted on school children, than it could be the best thing that he’s ever done. Luxon’s the circus carousel guy, and that’s about it really.

  22. Chippy cant do any worse by going big but I think he has lost credibility and it may have little impact.

    Noone will roll Chippy unless they have a death wish.

    There are really only two potential options – Willie Jackson but he has form for getting into trouble or Kieran ‘The Fixer’ McAnulty – who would be the Labour version of the smiling assassin. Heaven forbid they try Special K or Carmel on for size.

  23. So Labour have finally shown what they can do with a transformational majority – block a bill supported by all the other parties in Parliament, to make paid parental leave more flexible. They don’t consider it the governments job to stop overseas banks from making millions at the cost of New Zealanders, to break the supermarket monopolies, to deal with abuse in state care or to come up with a fairer tax system, but it is the government’s job to make decisions for parents and decide what is best for them and their families. No wonder they’re dropping in the polls.

  24. National has only just started their campaign spending. They have a program and a massive war chest to deluge the media in the next couple of months.

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