GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Ukraine on the offensive! What next?

An exciting week, as Ukraine transitions from small shaping and probing operations to larger offensive operations, however last week did not produce the ‘tipping point’ discussed in recent weeks.  A point at which Ukraine decides that; either 

• The offensive is not working, so it is time to slow down consolidate its gains and preserve its reserve; or
• The offensive is working and that it is time to commit its reserve.

Ukraine has developed a large reserve of roughly 50-60,000 soldiers formed into two corps, each of about 25-30,000 soldiers.  9th Corps is equipped with a mixture of Russian / Soviet and modern NATO equipment, while 10th Corps is equipped almost exclusively with modern NATO equipment. Both corps have experienced soldiers that received training overseas, returned to Ukraine and joined their units.  In military terms, 9th and 10th Corp’s are Ukraine’s heavy hitting formations that can be deployed on the campaign’s axis of ‘main effort,’ and are the force that will be used to break through Russia’s defences and exploit their rear areas. 

Over the last eight weeks Ukraine has slowly but surely probing Russia’s defences using small units of about 100 soldiers and a dozen vehicles. This activity’s aim is to gather intelligence and ‘shape’ the enemy.  It tests Russian defences and allows Ukraine to map out the things that can’t be seen on satellite photos. Things like minefields, defensive positions dug under the cover of trees, artillery hidden in woods or buildings and hidden groups of reserve soldiers.  This testing forces Russia to reveal its artillery and to move its own reserves out of hiding to counter attacks.  Whenever these forces are spotted Ukraine tries to destroy them with long-range precision attacks by weapons like HIMARs, steadily reducing Russia’s combat power.  Further, it forces Russia to move forces around the frontline allowing Ukraine to influence their location; or to ‘shape’ where the enemy is strong or weak. Meanwhile, 9th and 10th Corps have been held safe, behind the lines, well-rested and ready to strike when weaknesses start to appear in the Russian frontline. 

This week there are unconfirmed reports that units from Ukraine’s 9th and 10th Corps are entering the battle possibly indicating that Ukraine is getting ready to commit its forces to a ‘main effort’ section of the frontline and try to achieve a breakthrough.  On Tuesday and Wednesday military bloggers started to report large groups of Ukrainian tanks near Orikhiv, however in the earliest stages these reports were not in mainstream media and of limited credibility.  Then over the last few days, more information has started to emerge providing a better picture of what is happening in Ukraine; and how the campaign may develop. At this stage there are five key areas of interest in Ukraine; 

• A Russian counter in the north-east.
• The area around Bakhmut.
• Ukraine’s advance from near Orikhiv towards Tokmak; and perhaps further toward Melitopol. 
• The Velyka Novosilka salient.
• Crimea.

The next few paragraphs provide a summary of the situation in each of these areas of interest. 

Russia’s counter attack in the north-east

Over the last few weeks Russia has been concentrating forces along the Svatove-Kremina Line that roughly parallels the T1312 motorway running north from Kremina into Russia. The force build up was significant, around 100,000 newly mobilised soldiers.  Early, last week Russia used this force to conduct an offensive near a village called Novoyehorivka that lies in very broken country roughly 15km west of Svatove. This advance was sudden and effective pushing the Ukrainian defenders in the area back.   However, by the end of the week the situation stabilised Ukraine stopping the attack; and the broken nature of the local terrain makes it unlikely that the Russians will be able to advance quickly and create a significant issue in this area.  This was the same terrain that caused the culmination of last year’s Ukrainian offensive in Luhansk. 

Bakhmut

Ukraine’s offensive includes considerable pressure on Bakhmut.  South of the city, Ukraine has flattened out the Russian salient centred on Klishchiivka, advancing about 5-6km over a frontage of approximately 11km.  The towns of Klishchiivka, Andrivka and Kurdyumivka appear to be under Ukrainian attack.  In the north, Ukrainian forces are pushing hard against Berkhivka about 5km from their start line and sitting on high ground that would allow for artillery observation supporting an advance to Krasna Hora or Soledar helping to encircle Bakhmut. 

The most important development is related to Klishchiivka, Andrivka and Kurdyumivka all of which sit on a system of ridgelines and high ground that run north-east on an orientation that could allow Ukraine to advance more easily in that direction and cut-off Bakhmut. Essentially, in recent days Bakhmut got harder for Russia to hold. If Klishchiivka falls it opens the way for a rapid Ukrainian advance north and east, protected by high ground towards the main road that supplies Bakhmut. A very high-risk situation for Russia’s defenders.

Orikhiv towards Tokmak

The biggest news this week though relates to the advance from Orikhiv, early in the week there were reports of large Ukrainian forces attacking in the area. Later, we discovered that Ukrainian forces had attacked the village of Robotyne about 10km from their start line and been pushed back, at which point they swung east and made some significant ground increasing the depth of the advance in this area to about 6km over a 10 km frontage. This advance appears to include capturing a section of Russian trenches. 

This activity included reports of modern NATO tanks and armoured vehicles that indicated deployment of 9th and 10th Corps units may have started and that perhaps that Ukraine’s main effort is this axis.  However, as this article is being written there is not enough information to confirm the situation.

The Velyka Novosilka salient

The salient has almost been flattened, Ukrainian forces advancing on a frontage of about 30km have pushed Russian forces back about 8-9km across the length of the salient.  The big news in the last couple of days is that Ukraine appears to have captured Stariomaiorsk, an important village because it sits on a road junction and dominates an area that can be used as a base for Ukraine’s next push south. 

Crimea

Throughout the week Ukraine has maintained a constant series of attacks against logistics hubs, ammunition dumps, barracks and other key military infra-structure in Crimea.  Activity likely to be closely linked with the wider land campaign stripping away Russian ammunition reserves and damaging their supply lines.

In summary, the situation is developing quickly and Ukraine’s hard work may soon pay dividends. Reports of 9th and 10th Corps assets entering the battle are circulating in the military blogging community, but they are not confirmed yet.  Further, the reports of major attacks in the south near Orikhiv appear to show an escalation in Ukrainian activity.  An assessment that is supported by President Zelenskyy’s recent bullish statements and visiting the frontline. Previously, most Ukrainian operations have been relatively small about 100 people and a dozen armoured vehicles and this week we have had reports of attacks involving 40-80 vehicles. 

However, this is not a huge number of vehicles for instance a NATO battlegroup (a task organised combat team based around a battalion organisation) consists of roughly:

• 2-3 infantry companies each with about 14-16 armoured vehicles.
• A tank company/armoured squadron with 14-16 tanks
• Support vehicles including engineers, mortars, anti-tank vehicles, artillery forward observers and armoured ambulances; or about another 20 – 30 armoured vehicles. 

A total of between 60-90 vehicles. Russian, Soviet and possibly Ukraine tactical organisations are smaller but still tally around 50-70 armoured vehicles per battlegroup.  

This ‘back of envelope’ analysis suggests that although the size of Ukraine’s attacks in the south has increased from roughly combat teams to battlegroups, we are not yet seeing the full weight of Ukraine’s reserve being deployed.  A Ukrainian corps fields approximately 4-5 brigades, each with 2-3 battlegroups.  If Ukraine commits fully, we should expect to see a couple of hundred armoured vehicles (tanks, armoured personnel carriers and engineering vehicles) deployed on a relatively narrow frontage or across a width of about 20km. Based on this reasoning, we can assess that this week’s reporting indicates a steady escalation rather than a final commitment of Ukraine’s reserves to one axis of advance.   

It does appear that near Orikhiv Ukraine has made a small ‘break in’ on the forward line of Russian trenches, known as the ‘Surovikin Line.’  Ukraine’s next step there appears to be flanking Robtyne to the east and looking at how to bypass that area’s strong defences.  Next week, in this area we should expect to see more activity most likely Ukraine widening the break in point and preparing for the next step forwards. This will probably be slow work as Ukrainian soldiers push east and west along the Surovikin Line widening the gap so that there is room for a larger force to penetrate and assault the next line.  A battlegroup needs kilometres of secure frontage to easily pass through a defensive line, then shake out into combat formation for its next attack; and at this time the breech is only about 1.5 kilometres wide. 

Further, opportunities are developing near Bakhmut and Stariomaiorsk, both axes having potential to suddenly change and provide opportunities for Ukraine to advance.  For instance, if the Ukrainians capture Klishchiivka, that will allow a rapid advance north-east 8-10 km to the road that supply’s Bakhmut protected by the ridgeline the village sits on.  Even the threat of this manoeuvre could force the withdrawal of Russian forces from Bakhmut.

A point that brings us to this week’s key piece of analysis, although advances are being reported and the size of attacks has increased in the south near Orikhiv.  We need to be careful and considered in our analysis because we are still yet to see a large enough operation to indicate Ukraine’s main effort.  And; if we are finding it hard to predict where Ukraine’s main blow will fall, imagine what it is like for Russia’s field commanders.  Perhaps, Ukraine has not yet decided where to commit its main offensive force preferring instead to keep weakening the Russian defences across the whole frontline and waiting to see how the situation develops.  

Ukraine’s offensive may appear to be moving slowly and at this stage they are not gaining huge amounts of ground but is clear that they are setting the tempo of operations.  Choosing when and where to fight, defeating Russian counter attacks and probably still able to choose where and when to commit their reserves.  This week we may not have seen the ‘tipping point’ but we are getting closer and we can be more optimistic that offensive is not spent yet.

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger