With the polls on a knife edge, I believe the TV debates between Chippy and Luxon will be more important than ever.
First let’s acknowledge the awkwardness of debates where it is just the two leaders of the 2 big parties. While many of the networks will attempt debates with all the Leaders, it’s never in National or Labour’s interests to appear on those debates so they are far and few in between.
There will be set debates between the two and they usually attract enormous audiences.
With the don’t know at 15% of the electorate, there is everything to fight for in these debates.
Luxon has the most to win and Chippy has the most to lose and they should be in debate prep now, but my guess is neither Party have their Election Policies realised yet limiting their debate training potential.
In the Blue Corner:
Luxon seems to agree to anything anyone asks him which requires him doing a u-turn 24 hours later. This is sold as ‘endearing’ because he’s ‘not a politician’. To everyone else it looks confused and incompetent and you fret a bit that he was running Air NZ while you were flying on it once.
But because the bar is so low for Luxon, if he actually dazzles during the debates, it could be the winner of the election. There have been times when he has actually sounded passionate and invested in NZ progressing, unfortunately he’s only ever sounded that way when he wants to cut benefits from disabled teenagers on welfare, military boot camps for kids and putting ankle bracelets on 10 year olds.
Chris seems to take ‘spare the rod, spoil the child’ literally.
But if he can surprise NZ with a passionate moment, he can turn a moment into a defining election event.
So, Luxon is fighting for his political career, because he is goneburger if he doesn’t beat Labour this year. National tolerate many things, a rigged capitalism for their mates, obscene profits for Banks, sexual attraction towards Landlords and a fetish for punishment, but they WILL NOT tolerate losers.
In the Red Corner:
Cut beyond the Chippy from the Hutt routine and look at Chris Hipkins for the cold hearted political killer that he is.
Over the years of watching him and talking to him I think there are 3 sides to Chippy.
There is the behind the scenes interaction and management style with his staff and colleagues that is actually almost magical. He is incredibly kind and deferential to all his colleagues and is a leader who draws out the best from his people and empowers them to step up and perform rather than push and dictate to. Expect a phenomenal loyalty to him from the Caucus.
Then there is the Chippy who loves sausage rolls, Chippy from the Hutt, spread your legs, sausage roll loving, dorky competence, affable and lover of sausage rolls Chris Hipkins who you trust with your best interests at heart.
And then there is the Political Assassin Chris Hipkins who is the person the Party gets to go out and do political knee-capping. He has been the wielder of Labour’s sword many times because beyond the publicly affable and privately differential, Chris is a hard hitting pocket battleship.
The difference between Chippy and Jacinda, is Chippy will throw a punch.
Who will win?:
Luxon has a chance, and in an election this close, it could be the magical moment that propels National into the lead.
So you can’t rule it out and that’s what makes the Debates so fascinating.
However.
Chris Hipkins is a high ranking Left Wing Jedi Knight. He’s Luke Skywalker, Harry Potter and a fully automatic machine gun all rolled into one. He will eviscerate Luxon with a level of detail that sounds spookily like Helen Clarke with the knockout wit power of David Lange while authentically connecting to the middle emotionally like Jacinda.
Chippy ain’t no chump and if National walk into this trying to debate Chris Hipkins, they will lose. Luxon’s only chance is to talk to the audience and connect with them emotionally NOT debate with Hipkins because he will get whipped.
Luxon has never been punched in the face and he has a political glass jaw, if Chippy unleashes, he will go down in the first round and that will resonate with the huge viewing audience.
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This is nonsense.
Chris Hipkins, by doing an Ardern and promising not to introduce any wealth tax or capital gains tax, has betrayed Labour voters.
No one should vote Labour while Hipkins remains its leader.
Vote Greens, vote Te Pāti Māori, vote NZ First, vote TOP. Anyone but Labour.
I’m voting ACT for the first time in my life. It’s the only political party that accepts reality, strives for common sense and doesn’t have its head in the clouds.
JT No Greens either; they’re the originators of divisive identity politics and the shocking gender ID scenarios which are harming school children. Better that the Greens vanish.
It will be interesting to see if National’s PR people have the sense to try and keep Luxon away from trying to engage in debates. This is the only sensible move given his complete lack of any human personality, but he’s arrogant enough to override them.
“Gonzo” Bradbury well on form here, the tory trolls will love this post! But, butt…Layybah…Layybah…Laybaah!!
The country is doomed–only Baldrick religious fruit cake can save us–Layybah!!
lol. spot on. luxon will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Yes ..excellent analysis…
Luxon flounders and founders as soon as the pressure goes on and he gets the ‘please explain yourself better’ adjunct to a question that he’s been fudging the answer to. Seymour is the same.
He’s a choker and you cannot teach people to be quick on their feet. He’s uncoachable and it’s not covered anywhere in any of his ‘How To Win Friends and Influence People’ books lining his bookshelf . So he’s lost …all at sea and always deferring to the “and i’m telling you” …blah blah blah line…which tells you nothing other than the fact that he’s got nothing.
When it comes to the pointy end of politics .You’ve either got it, or you haven’t, and Luxon doesn’t know who he is or even what the fuck he is doing in politics …and so hasn’t got it !! Rudderless…. Look at what he believes in. That tells you a lot!!
They are throwing colossal amounts of money at him … huge amounts… trying to con people with propaganda about him and yet he still can’t break out past the margin of era in the polls and is well behind in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.
He would make a pathetic Prime Minister and the majority of people know that.
Meh. Hipkins sold us all out yesterday with his BAU no taxes policy. He deserves to go. Vote Hipkins for farmers, Luxon for banks. If you’re a kiwi working class person or less, the message is super clear – NO ONE CARES, move along. Masters of the universe are united. Arseholes.
There is no Red Corner, it’s merely a different shade of blue and you know it.
Watching a debate between such weak candidates will be unbearable. I thought Anthony Albanese vs. Scott Morrison was totally unwatchable, and although they are also weak candidates, neither are as poor as Chippy/Luxo.
If this weren’t a rigged political system, these debates might have been between a Labour prime minister called Carole Anderton (succeeding a former P.M. called Jim Anderton), and a certain Muldoonite leader of the Tories called Winston Peters (perhaps a former three term Prime Minister). Now that’s a debate that might actually be worth watching.
Depends who the moderator is ??
If it’s Mike Hosking or Jack Tame then we might see a worth while debate. If it’s one of the Break fast crew, then it will probably be a waste if time and not change the poll s at all.
Didn’t David Cunliffe win a debate?
Here here Grant I couldn’t have said it any better, Luxon is not a politician despite all the rants by some of the bias whiners on this site. Yes, he ran Air NZ but there’s a big difference between an airline and a country. When he talks about powering up, he sounds like he is talking about an airplane. And as for those selfish ones on this site who are prepared to turn a blind eye to him (Luxon) being so unsuitable to lead our country through times of turmoil it says a lot about them. To me it says they just care about them fucken selves not the rest of the many New Zealanders who are struggling. Every time National are in power inequalities rise.
resonate not resinate chief!
Can I ask when Luxon discussed “disabled teenagers on welfare” – sounds bad.
Chippy cannot even tell us what a woman is.
Bring on the debates!
Te Puke or Hawaii Andrew? Just saying.
Which Hipkins knows what a woman is?
The same Hipkins who knows the difference between Te Puke and Hawaii.
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