BOOM!
Another firecracker on the furnace, the Talbot Mills Poll is out and Chippy gone taken a beating as no one can afford Bread and Butter:
Labour: 31
National: 36
ACT: 12
GREEN: 8
Māori Party: 4.2%
NZ First: 4%
TOP: 2.9%
The political gravity of the cost of living crisis and ministerial self inflicted cock up after ministerial self inflicted cock up have finally caught up with Labour yet people still dislike Chris Luxon.
Interesting that the Maori Party at 4.2 is unbelievably strong and suggests that the Roy Morgan is picking up something real there while TOP and NZFirst all threaten to over turn the apple cart.
The polarisation of ACT at 12% highlights how we face a splintered MMP spectrum leading into the 2023 Election.
Labour traditionally underpoll by 4points and National overpoll by 5points so this could be the closest election we’ve ever had.
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No point in trying to convince anyone here. Half the commentors on this blog support slashing wages, privatizing health and education, cutting benefits, getting rid of sick leave, rolling back clean water legislation, and closing down the rail network. They also support allowing cops to dish out summary executions and massive curbs on civil liberties. They also want homosexuality and transgenderism recriminalised and abortion banned, with Biblical values imposed at gunpoint. This place is a bad as Kiwiblog, and Basset/Hide blog.
Don’t let them get you down, Millsy. That is exactly their purpose in trolling here..
Of course Millsy, rare is the day when you get an actual discussion on TDB anymore, it is the same old one liner, dirty filthy Torys.
My posts go into auto moderation, for some bizarre reason, you can see that by the post time and the actual time they appear. What’ev, I’ll still write here from time to time because while we may not be able to defeat the bastards right now–we do not have to join them!
If you can’t see that Marxism is spreading through the west.. then mate…I have concerns for the rest of the left voters.
millsy Poof. You are into hyperbole – I have often noted that about you. There are trolls yes, so keep on writing in explaining things that bother you. They just want to get into empty yeh-nah space -wasting tennis matches. Sport for them but we’re about serious stuff to real people.
The Outdoor Party? and Sue Grey – supposed to be aiming for 20%.
Have to expand Bruce Jesson’s – ‘Only their Purpose is Mad: the Money Men Take Over New Zealand’; no more. There is madness coming out of the money men’s eyes and mouths spreading over the land polluting places that used to have integrity, were clear and knowable.
Here comes Uncle Winnie. Centre Left /right Swing voters might now see Uncle Winnie and cousin Shane as the perfect hand brake for ACT.
Winnie has moved to the right, and plans to use the election to whip people into a frenzy against the LGBTQ’s. He will also actively condone police brutality and curbs on civil liberties.
How well do you know Winston Millsy?
I dont think he will do any of those things.
He will try to limit the pro trans agenda particularly around puberty blockers and the new sex education in schools. His agenda in this area is to do with ensuring children are safe and that women’s rights are given equal footing with trans rights. He is not Anti Trans, LBG etc.
I imagine he will expect the police to charge more people and the courts to be tougher on crime unless that is what you define as curbing ‘civil liberties’. And if you disagree more criminals need to be charged go to the DOJ website and look up the stats. Look at 2009/2010 and ask yourself why the number of people being charged for most offences have dropped by over 40% since that time.
I guess you admit you want to impose US style policing and law/order in this country, and have people given 10 year sentences for minor offences. And giving police more powers mean that cops will be able to harrass more brown people, and just baton them for no reason. Do you really want a George Floyd or Rodney king style incident in NZ? I don’t know about you , but I think I should be able to carry on my business with out being beaten half to death by cops.
Winston as most people have no concerns with LGB because they do not seek to strip away hard won womens rights, change our language and deny biological reality.
Neither do they seek to indoctrinate our education system with trans promotional propaganda under the guise of inclusion.
Please stop lumping in the t+ with the LGB for credibility.
While I don’t think Winston resembles the current views of populist conservatives very well at all — which is strange, because a Muldoon-era M.P. like him simply needs to be exactly like Muldoon again — he needs to limp over the line, in order for a Trumpian candidate to emerge at the following election.
The Tories are too (legally) corrupt to ever allow a Trumpian candidate to win the leadership, even though the membership wants exactly that. And if Winston retires and N.Z.F. implodes, trying to get into Parliament without an existing M.P. is nearly impossible.
The way a Marine Le Pen style administration could happen is if N.Z.F. can find a leader who is pro-protectionism, pro-manufacturing, anti-interventionist, anti-immigration, pro-oil/coal and pro-free-speech. Because there is no Bernie/Corbyn type competitor, that candidate would easily hoover up all the Rust Belt votes — and given the extremely poor quality Tory candidates, could easily ride a 45%+ wave of support, all the way to Premier House.
Its possible but unlikely, NZ is not exactly a hot bed of mouthy far righters who have the gift of the gab and come across as somewhat credible. In fact the only one I can point to is Seymour and he already has a party.
NZers dont like extremes and any Govt looking to lead long term must both capture and maintain the middle.
Early on when Le Pen nearly got in but for a whisker, it was due to there being about 16 leftish splinter group parties. Now you mention her name, it reminds me to beg please don’t us go down the road of letting every woman and her bitch, or male version, get a few sticks rubbed together to start making a fire that will burn us all off. There may be an argument about bringing it down to four pc, but then the accompanying members who get in along with an electorate win, should be limited to one extra. Not automatically bringing extra in. I am afraid of the hot-bloods and sovereign-types getting in. They wikll take the witches brew out of the pot and expand it to a cauldron.
Minor parties are the hope for democracy. All of them.
Under MMP we have a dictatorship of the cabinet, with backbench MPs mere puppets and muppets, fearful that the will be moved down The List if they don’t chant the leader’s mantra.
Let’s hear it for Te Pāti Māori AND Top AND NZ First.
100%
Except for NZF those figures give me a hope that this government is being reconized as the failure it is .
Record employment and wage increases are not failures. Some people in this country are getting payrises for the first time, instead of being stuck on the same wage under National. Also benefits are up and prescriptions are free. People are being looked after.
“ A darker metaphor to describe the government’s cracking, creaking working condition is perhaps the tragic final journey of the ‘Titan’ submersible in the North Atlantic, near the wreckage of the Titanic. The sub seems to have imploded, in large part, due to vastly imperfect working parts operating under great pressure. ”
The Australian’s opinion of NZ’s government. They’re being quite kind.
Says someone as on record as saying that those in youth detention facilities should be subject to CIA style torture methods,and who openly supports the violent repression of LGBT’s.
You forgot to mention record inflation. There has been pay rises but most are still worse off and the benefit increase is related to inflation so no one should be cheering about that because more tax money is going out but less is coming in . Greens and TPM are the only ones who think that is ok .The count down is on to a better future.
Do you think workers should get payrises Trevor? Do you think benefits should go up? Something tells me you don’t want workers to have payrises at all.
Of course Trev, there wouldn’t have been any inflation if bible basher barbie had been PM. Brains sold separately.
Imagine how worse off under Nact if they hadn’t given wage rises such was English’s want of a low wage economy and the effects of inflation?
We are seeing an international tend. People are really, really fed-up. It’s not about particular parties.
This trend says people will thwart business-as-usual in any way they can. The party that starts telling the truth and stops the manipulative, focus-grouped bullshit aimed at political power for its own sake will cream-it.
Clearly we are a long way from honesty in NZ. When they finally see the trend, the politicos will investigate looking like being honest. Obviously this will require a lot of work, probably many hours of watching recordings of people telling the truth, something they won’t be able to find in their public or their private lives. They will try to mimic the appearance of actual integrity. It wont work.
The party that finds someone capable of telling the truth, that articulates a real plan to meet reality, that communicates a genuine the intention of carrying it out: That party will win by a landslide, no matter the brand.
We are just beginning to see the consequences of how angry the public is at the relentless bullshit. It will be some time before politicos correctly diagnose the problem or come to understand the depth of the dissatisfaction. Or we could see the surprise circuit-breakers that are becoming apparent overseas.
I just hope something genuinely left emerges from the rubble because these are dangerous times and there is no guarantee that this will lead to something better.
A lot of people think like this crnc – I share much of this sentiment. Although I still have optimism and genuine excitement about NZ’s future but it is getting harder at times.
No way, Labour are riding a wave of “success”!
According to a blog site I follow 😉
If Chippy had actually implemented “bread and butter”™, he may have saved Labours political skin, despite ministerial implosions and all other failings. But he never even got close and it was all just a mirage!
For Labour to be returned Adrian Orr will need to drop interest rates to create some feel good in the country. And Chiippy will need to shout about Austerity Act. It’s always the economy stupid.
Green and TPM to rise further yet too…a change is a–comin’…
Gen Election will be close as every pundit, blog commenter and media wanker has said for months now. I don’t care if there is just one seat in it–keep those dirty filthy tories and actoids away from office is the strategy here–then onward and upwards to trash Rogernomics once and for all in 2026.
Yep TPM will have a very successful election and either in Government or opposition, I look forward to them holding the racist righties to account.
More bust than boom
Peters is getting on the straight. He’s getting big crowds and tearing it up on Twitter with clips of his meetings.
I still think the conservative/right-wing vote is being UNDERestimated not overestimated, despite Bomber continually telling us that National “overpoll”.
The opt-in nature of some of the polls plus the MSM demonisation of anyone without far-left socioeconomic views suggests to me that NATACT’s true lead will only be revealed on election day.
National/Act don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the election!
Luxon is hopelessly out of his depth registering zero on the authenticity scale with a line up akin to Dad’s Army, and Seymore is just a vacuous clown whose policies are so poorly thought through that a normal rational thinking 10 year old would find major flaws in.
As the election draws closer and Nat/ Act are be forced to explain their loony policies and how they plan to implement and pay for them. The white hot blow torch of the debates will finish them off !!
Neither Luxon nor Seymore can handle any pressure. We’ve seen it time and time again in interviews. As soon as they are challenged with real world rational thinking the stuttering, stammering and profuse sweating starts. The reason? Both lack logical thought processes and end up tying themselves up in a hangman’s knot trying to explain ideological nonsensical garbage.
The hangman is coming. The chair is about to be kicked out. All that money spent on them….wasted.
And i thought the wealthy were supposed to be astute with their money. Yet another myth!
Grants losing his mind..
Kirk acting his age28
i hope you are right
Luxon in that barbie gimmick is awful..
Seymour’s dollie he’s going to really play with ..
Yeah I can see Seymour as a Ken doll.
Labour being punished for continuing tone deafness to cost of living crisis, housing, health, crime, poverty, shit pretty much everything whilst being obsessed with woke, nanny state, social engineering virtue, signaling ideology bullshit.
They are gone.
You seem to resent workers getting payrises.
Sounds like you are tuned to 1ZB 24/7 and probably have Hosking on your facebook list.
However, if you watch news channels in Australia, Canada , U.S.A, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc etc etc you will see that all those things that you have complained about are prevalent in nearly every , if not all countries around the world. N.Z is no exception.
On nearly every statistic N.Z is one of the few countries that is doing better than most and was just rated one of the most liveable countries in the world.
The countries doing the best are predominantly Scandinavian .These countries pay high taxes and have a highly educated well trained home spun workforce. They don’t import their workers in large volumes and they have very good well connected social services.
They also do not have to deal with the complexities that comes with educating over 100 different nationalities like we do in our schools, and who, for a lot of them, English is their 2nd language.
National and Act’s naivety in thinking that they are going to deal with all the complexities that run deep within N.Z society with just a few simplistic ill thought through plans beggars belief!
The right are brainwashed by ideology.
But when you place statistics and facts in front of them Grant, as you have done, they have nothing, no debating, just insults.
But the polls and influence of the rights war chest of donations are enough to convince gullible kiwis that the sky is falling in.
Whist this is all very promising. Its only one poll so until we see another 5 or 6 like it then I think this could potentially all be wishful thinking. Although the numbers here feel absolutely right to me (Except I would’ve thought ACT would be closer to 15 and the Nats at 33)
43.2 with Lab/Grn/TPM all combined, while Nat/ACT have 48 alone and potentially 52 if they had NZF onboard.
NZF isn’t even needed for Nats/ACT to well and truly be in the lead far beyond the reach of the margin of error.
This is a disaster for the left.
I put this piece up on Bowalley Road. But I think it also fits here. Can we make a breakthrough to those who haven’t reached the smug complacency blank-minds yet. the young adults? The frenetic technomass parents may be reached if they can look up from their devices? Or are they like their children?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/493305/children-spending-a-third-of-after-school-time-on-screens-study-finds
It involved more than 100 young people aged 11-13 years wearing cameras that captured images every seven seconds.
The researchers found children in the study spent more than a third of their after-school time using screens, with higher rates after 8pm.
Watching programmes and gaming accounted for most of the screen use with television making up 42 percent of the screen time followed by computers at 32 percent.
(Senior researcher Dr Moira Smith, from the [Otago] university’s department of public health in Wellington)…also raised concerns about the content they were being exposed to as well as experiencing sexism, racism and bullying while online.
“Cyberbullying is particularly high among children in Aotearoa, with one in four parents reporting their child has been subjected to bullying while online.”
The current laws were outdated and failed to adequately deal with the online world children were being exposed to, she said.
“While screen use has many benefits, children need to be protected from harm in this largely unregulated space.”
My heartfelt feelings that Chris put up:
https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2023/07/unstoppable-and-explosive.html
We have to bring our minds to understanding politics in a 21st century way – a far more advanced and painfully cerebral way than in last century. We are no longer children getting our education, working hard and being rewarded we hope with good health and nice holidays, children nice houses etc etc. The Holocaust looms over us. People who couldn’t, wouldn’t, were afraid, went along with a new Party that promised all good things to them, though not good things to others. The not good things happened throughout the 1930s even before, didn’t just crop up in 1939.
Laying your gavel (steak knife and fork) down and saying in sorrowful tones to Labour et al that they aren’t good enough and so you will have to vote for someone else; that’s not the answer. You are not a babe in a cot throwing a tantrum and the toys out on the floor. We have to understand that the 21st century motto is People/R/Us – a vulgar sales pitch that actually carries to us an anguished message which is that we have to help each other and love each other because we have unbalanced the world and a small number of people are unbalanced with too much wealth.
Don’t vote to make things worse because that is your mood! Today this is eternally appropriate: Benjamin Franklin’s comment at the time of the signing of the Declaration of Independence 1776: “We must all hang together, or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately.” This man may have written what we need to know: Rushworth Moulton Kidder (May 8, 1944 – March 5, 2012) was an American author, ethicist, and professor. Kidder founded the Institute for Global Ethics in 1990, and is the author of :
‘Moral Courage and How Good People Make Tough Choices: Resolving the Dilemmas of Ethical Living’.
What do the left do with all that toxic rage if the right win?
Join the toxic, paranoid, Qanon right anarchists of the parliament attack.
I wanna see labour’s tax policy. It better be good! They should drop it now.
And they did… no change! Unbelievable. Andrea Vance summed it up well… “what do labour actually stand for?” and “what use is power if you do nothing with it?” (paraphrased slightly). I’m gutted.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/07/jenna-lynch-chris-hipkins-cowardly-robin-hood-tax-backdown-what-does-labour-stand-for.html
NZ First always underpoll and the pundits seem surprised by their actual result. The big difference this time is that they have no sitting mps so theyre not eligible for public funding for their campaign.
If Labour are comaining about NZF being a handbrake on their most bonkers policies then surely ACT would be complaining as well in the same situation.
My bet is that if NZF start polling consistently and voters don’t see it as a wasted vote then their support will surge.
Far Right? Lol. Love the hyperbole Martyn.
But a seriously, the extremists in NZ are the Far Left and the culturally woke fellow travellers. borrow, Tax and Spend is a reciepe for bankruptcy
The post of Jack’s has nailed the situation. Back in 2017 people were willing Labour to make things better in NZ but nearly every indicator important to me has gone backwards since 2017. I voted Labour for over three decades but will not vote for them this year. Act is being considered for my party vote and the Nats for my electoral vote. I’ve communicated with my Labour MP whom I voted many times for while I will not be voting for him in 2023.
Jack’s post follows.
“Labour being punished for continuing tone deafness to cost of living crisis, housing, health, crime, poverty, shit pretty much everything whilst being obsessed with woke, nanny state, social engineering virtue, signaling ideology bullshit.
They are gone.”
You’re a smart man Trev!
My local Labour MP is typical of the breed – gay and a tiny bit Māori, like as if these are qualifications. He has an empty CV having never had a proper job, let alone a career. Oh, and a degree in ‘performing arts’. FFS
Do you want THAT guy making strategic decisions for the nation!?
If I was honest it’s the right blocs to lose. With the amount of coverage Luxon is being given and the millions the Uber wealthy and big business have donated to Nact, plus the constant negative attacks by the media, Labour stand no chance. Not because National are any good, clearly they aren’t , given they are responsible for today’s ills.
Here in Hamilton Labour have created a wonderful distribution hub that will eventually create 6000 jobs and billions in income.
Yet nothing in the mainstream media why is that?
So the most incompetent racist government we’ve ever had is going to lose the election
Oh my. How sad
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