Good to see Newshub Nation catching up with a 3 year old TDB talking point regarding the rise of ACT.
Comrades, you can read it here first on The Daily Blog or wait 3 years for a NZ on Air taxpayer funded current affairs show to pick it up 3 years later.
Latest internal Talbot poll is out and makes for fascinating reading:
LABOUR – 36%
NATIONAL – 35%
ACT – 11%
GREENS – 7%
Maori Party are kingmakers and most interestingly, Chippy has gone up 6point to 38% preferred PM against Luxon dropping down to 23%.
What is infuriating Right Wing strategists is that no matter the Labour Party fuck ups and lack of real progress on the big issues is that Labour’s vote is holding and solidifying.
The problem for National is the more extreme ACT gets with their subhuman and Mogadishu comments (alongside their radioactive Treaty referendum and extreme amputation of the State) the more it scares the bejesus out of the middle.
Those middle voters see the extremism of an ACT/National Government and have picked sides with Labour so no matter how Labour MPs fuck up, the middle voter is voting Labour because an ACT/National Government is simply too extreme for serious contemplation.
The polarisation on the right is an existential crisis to National and it will continue to be so as Green Party middle class woke identity politics activists keep handing ACT culture war ammunition.
This election the power is in the cross benches.
NZF, TOP, the Māori Party and now ACT have all stated they will sit on the cross benches rather than join a Government.
In NZ, all a Party needs to form the Government is a segment to the Governor General that the can get a majority vote for their budget.
That’s it.
Previously with MMP most smaller parties become part of the Government and get tripped up by the collective responsibility obligations of Cabinet and tend to get blamed for decisions while gaining little in wins.
What we are seeing this election is smaller parties choosing the cross benches and instead off being bound by majority decisions, will wait for the legislation to come to them and then cherry pick what they want.
We haven’t seen that type of MMP before, but it’s very much how MMP works overseas.
Take the example of a Labour led minority Government with supply and confidence with the Māori Party.
The Māori Party would demand concessions from the Labour led minority Government in exchange for their supply and confidence vote and then move to the cross benches on all other policy.
If the Māori Party make demands on legislation that the Labour led minority Government felt was too extreme, that leaves the Labour led minority Government to go to National to get the votes instead, so there is a built in hand break to stop policy that is too extreme.
Seeing as Labour and National vote together 70% of the time, this isn’t much of an issue.
NZers have had a very FPP MMP for 30 years, this election looks to splinter the MMP spectrum and deliver us a very different style of democracy.
I think that would be a far better outcome.
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Rogue poll.
And TMP are jesters, not king makers
And Luxon’s ‘tough on crime’ announcements this afternoon won’t help him.
He’s expecting the police to do a lot more with probably fewer police (judging by Nats past record); he rubbishes Labour’s reduced prison population so a lot more criminals will go into the Uni for Crims; and is still talking about military academies for ram-raiders etc. Hasn’t anyone told him the the military are fast losing personnel because of their non-military duties ever since Covid and MIQ’s? That exodus will only be made much worse if the military are now forced to be jailers.
Never will (land)Lord Luxon admit that increasing poverty is the real problem – he’s only interested in the greedy, not the needy.
Does this egghead, wannabe PM never learn?
Ditto!
Why no figures for TPM and NZF?
TOP as well…
Te Pati Maori are not kingmakers. They can’t go right.
They are part of the Labour/Green/Te Pati Maori bloc, although Te Pati Maori may choose to sit outside the coalition, just like the Greens did in 2017 to 2020.
The right bloc is National/Act and potentially NZ First. Te Pati Maori is not part of it, with both Te Pati Maori and National ruling out any arrangements between them.
They are in the sense that if both blocks need them they can decide between a Labour-Green govenment or a hung parilament, same with NZ First for National-ACT since they ruled out working with Labour… If you think kingmaker strictly means being able to choose between both sides then TOP are the only ones who would fit that definition
Meh. Preferred PM poll is always extremely noisy and almost always heavily favours the incumbent (since any potential new PM is an unknown). I have said for over a year now that this election is National’s to lose after the debacle that was Labour. If National somehow mess this winning hand up, it’s all on them. National has a Full House, and Labour has at best a Pair.
Just another friendly reminder that under ACT/National, no worker will get a payrise every again.
Probably a pay decrease if anything based on David’s proposal to let businesses ignore minimum wage laws in wake of natural disasters…
If inflation is not running at 12 percent then automatic pay rises are not needed .Any rise would come through increased productivity
In a decent society, ie one where rich pricks like you want to hoard all the wealth, get automatic payrise because it is the right thing to do
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