With the election so close, the traditional Political Debates between the Labour and National Leaders will matter more than ever and it’s worth exploring how we think these debates will play out.
First let’s acknowledge the awkwardness of debates where it is just the two leaders of the 2 big parties. While many of the networks will attempt debates with all the Leaders, it’s never in National or Labour’s interests to appear on those debates so they are far and few in between.
There will be set debates between the two and they usually attract enormous audiences.
With the don’t know at 15% of the electorate, there is everything to fight for in these debates.
Luxon has the most to win and Chippy has the most to lose and they should be in debate prep now, but my guess is neither Party have their Election Policies realised yet limiting their debate training potential.
In the Blue Corner:
Luxon seems to agree to anything anyone asks him which requires him doing a u-turn 24 hours later. This is sold as ‘endearing’ because he’s ‘not a politician’. To everyone else it looks confused and incompetent and you fret a bit that he was running Air NZ while you were flying on it once.
But because the bar is so low for Luxon, if he actually dazzles during the debates, it could be the winner of the election. There have been times when he has actually sounded passionate and invested in NZ progressing, unfortunately he’s only ever sounded that way when he wants to cut benefits from disabled teenagers on welfare, military boot camps for kids and putting ankle bracelets on 10 year olds.
Chris seems to take ‘spare the rod, spoil the child’ literally.
But if he can surprise NZ with a passionate moment, he can turn a moment into a defining election event.
So, Luxon is fighting for his political career, because he is goneburger if he doesn’t beat Labour this year. National tolerate many things, a rigged capitalism for their mates, obscene profits for Banks, sexual attraction towards Landlords and a fetish for punishment, but they WILL NOT tolerate losers.
In the Red Corner:
Cut beyond the Chippy from the Hutt routine and look at Chris Hipkins for the cold hearted political killer that he is.
Over the years of watching him and talking to him I think there are 3 sides to Chippy.
There is the behind the scenes interaction and management style with his staff and colleagues that is actually almost magical. He is incredibly kind and deferential to all his colleagues and is a leader who draws out the best from his people and empowers them to step up and perform rather than push and dictate to. Expect a phenomenal loyalty to him from the Caucus and a very tight ship.
Then there is the Chippy who loves sausage rolls, Chippy from the Hutt, spread your legs, sausage roll loving, dorky competence, affable and lover of sausage rolls Chris Hipkins who you trust with your best interests at heart.
And then there is the Political Assassin Chris Hipkins who is the person the Party gets to go out and do political knee-capping. He has been the wielder of Labour’s sword many times because beyond the publicly affable and privately differential, Chris is a hard hitting pocket battleship.
The difference between Chippy and Jacinda, is Chippy will throw a punch.
Who will win?:
Luxon has a chance, and in an election this close, it could be the magical moment that propels National into the lead.
So you can’t rule it out and that’s what makes the Debates so fascinating.
However.
Chris Hipkins is a high ranking Left Wing Jedi Knight. He’s Luke Skywalker, Harry Potter and a fully automatic machine gun all rolled into one. He will eviscerate Luxon with a level of detail that sounds spookily like Helen Clarke with the knockout wit power of David Lange while authentically connecting to the middle emotionally like Jacinda.
Chippy ain’t no chump and if National walk into this trying to debate Chris Hipkins, they will lose. Luxon’s only chance is to talk to the audience and connect with them emotionally NOT debate with Hipkins because he will get whipped.
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Luxon couldn’t even win an egg n spoon race.
I’m not so sure about that.
Speaking of eggs and spooning, contraception access is really a human rights issue.
Yet Luxon, the born to rule, pale stale male human bowling ball, wants to bring back prescription charges on the pill, which will be hard to swallow for the 50% of the population, who have a womb.
Perhaps the only time Luxon even thinks of wombs, is when he gets womb service at the Hawaiian hotels he frequents, or when calculating the rent he gouges on his 7 mansions by womb rate, or while enjoying the great leg womb, in his black Mercedes.
And he’ll probably be relaxing in his sitting womb this Friday to watch his favorite move, Aloha, at 7.30 pm on Bravo.
He’s the egg.
Cook Sinic some fuckun eggs.
The Chippy with tell lies that’s a certainty.
As they fight it out people will see Hipkins as a politican who is as shollow as Ardern without the charisma. Luxon will show he is a CEO who can run the coutry successfully for all.
Of course Trevor that’s the truth of it.
Best laugh I’ve had all week. Keep it up.
I really don’t understand what these right wingers are doing here – do they really think readers of the Daily Blog are going to be swayed by stating opinion as if it’s fact and not providing any evidence to back theselves up. I’m more than a little baffled by this.
Andrew Bob and I work on the assumption it is easy to baffle those on the left because their own party does it to them all the time.
Mr Whippy v Mr Bauldy! What an election we’ve got coming up! How fucking boooooooooooooooooooooooooring!
I think it is going to be exiting and there will be serious debate about how they are going to help those who are struggling.
Tax cuts and targeted benefits will be the real battlefield.
The minor party leaders debate will be steered towards critical theory.
They surely cannot look to Labour for solutions,they are the sitting Government who have failed New Zealanders for almost 6 years.
I mean gosh even their leader realised that so she abandoned ship and country.
The problem with angry Kiwis is they want to punish the sitting government by voting against it – not so much for another party but to punish the government.
Example: 1980s voters justifiably angry with betrayal by Labour and Rogernomics vote for National and get National and Ruth Richardson(Ruthenasia).
We will literally cut off our noses to spite our faces and we do not mind repeating tragic history to do it.
As pissed off as I am with Labour and the Greens I can see they are the lesser of evils.
Can anyone come up with a viable alternative? Ideas please.
@Stevie: Restarting the independent press outlets and local broadcasters (labour movement newspapers & radio, local television, etc.), workplace organising, and rebuilding community organisations (that are mass-movement based, and tightly linked with international organisations).
But the local people haven’t really been angry since ’91. More demoralised and submissive, with a mass exodus of anyone motivated and/or angry.
Do your duty. Think and then vote.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4PzpxOj5Cc&ab_channel=BillSmith
Stevie and others.
I can’t help but Uncle Albert can: “Albert Einstein: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” Don’t be insane in other words.
KH so true this Labour Government cannot do anything different they don’t know how.
National and Act is my suggestion Stevie.
I’m no Luxon fan. I don’t like the way his policies are skewed towards the landed gentry.
I mean, bringing back tax deductibility on investment properties, will just subsidise speculators.
And reducing the only thing in NZ that resembles the economically needed capital gains tax, which is the brightline test, means Luxon wants to go in the opposite direction to what is economically rational, but again he would help speculators.
And now he wants to flip flop on Nicola’s urban densification agreement, so that bigwigs in plush suburbs, can get on the blower to their local mayor, if some bottom-feeder over the road wants to erect a structure that lowers the tone of the surrounds.
Hardly the everyday man. Seven castles Luxon, just cannot shake being the slick jetsetter, with his clip on suit, playing fast and lose with the truth, with social media A.I adverts, while he overwinters in Hawaii, or where ever he is pretending to be. It seems that his every utterance, is designed to make things cushy, for those who already have the most. He won’t even let people off paying $5 for their rogaine prescriptions, yet he still wants to give a $17k tax cut to himself. If he instead, gave $17k to those on the lowest incomes, he would be greatly increase their spending power, which would give a boost to the economy. He could call it, “trickle up”.
But he does excel in complaining! He complains about the pot-holes, but increasing city sprawl by getting rid of the urban limit, so productive farmland can go his speculator friends, is not going to make the job of upkeeping roads any easier, particularly with the increasing frequency of weather events.
He complains about Labour’s inaction on inflation, but note that cost of living is even worse in the U.K, under their Tory govt. He complains that the superannuation age needs to be lifted to be affordable, but it was the Nats who stopped contributions to the Cullen fund, designed to fund super. He can complain that teachers and nurses are taking strike action, which they didn’t do under National, because they knew National would never give them a decent pay rise. He’s sounding like a broken record.
Greed is good, Pro speculator, Anti Maori, Abortion equivocal, Serial complainer, Captain cliché, and Master and commander of all he owns or controls via trust funds, Chainsaw Luxon – who once tried to trademark “Kia ora”, can get rid of Maori signage if he wants, because that’s a game changer, or is it just another dog whistle virtue signal, by the highflyer wanting to ramraid his way into govt.
Do something rather than just mouth off in blogs–the “they all suck!” line has worn out its welcome. It does not take an intellectual giant to realise that of course parliamentary parties suck–but equally so does lazy inaction and abandoning any positive participation as a citizen.
Help Te Pāti Māori for 2023 and so they can get 5% and some seats on October 14. There is a guy paid by Electoral Commission at Kaitaia market on Sat mornings and he has enrolled a number of people, 99% of whom went on the Māori roll as I earwigged from nearby–I help run a weekly stall too.
Chippy would prevail over Baldrick any day unless chrome dome does stumble onto to some simplistic “where’s the beef?” type meme. But the Natzo’s bizarre policy backflips will put a lot of people off regardless, mostly the 50% of the population know as Women–ones with uteruses, not the flash new ones with cocks and balls.
Luxon being against Te Reo usage on signs, is just channeling what Winston has already said.
And Luxon wanting to review firearms law, is just pandering to Act and its gun lobby backers.
So a NZfirst+Act coalition is where Luxon is obviously positioning himself. Good luck with that.
Going with NZfirst and Act, will be like putting two feral cats into a sack, and hoping they get along.
Like +110%
All National needs to focus on is the current state of our Health, Education, Economy and Law and Order. That alone will be almost impossible for Hipkins to defend.
These debates will be meaningless theater. They will pitching their bullshit aimed at what their donors have paid for. Its another sideshow of the fixed corrupt political system that favors the usual suspects.
I’ve watched so many over the years and apart from the much desired gotcha moment these so called debates will be no different and the gruesome twosome always set the rules of engagement so capitalize the entire narrative.
It inspires no confidence at every level you choose to look at.
Only thing guaranteed Mosa is the Chippy will tell many lies.
Most dishonest Government in our history,ran and are running secret agenda.
I’m in Te Puke or was that Hawaii? Most dishonest National leader in our history, or was that Keypuller or Oravida Collins or Muller or no Bridges, Muldoon or Shipley, oh the choice is endless! How about that GST secret agenda, or cutting funding to police, teachers and health. Only thing guaranteed Bob is that Lex Luther will cut NZ like Hannibal Lector.
Anyone could win this election if they outlined a long term plan that was sure to achieve something that we would like to buy into as citizens.
I know most govt departments are totally dysfunctional, is it that hard to make them functional?
Going back to Bread & Butter was the right message – but Labour ain’t doing it. They are like a compounding explosion which I didn’t think was possible. The others aren’t trying enough either.
I think it’s going to be like the 2005 debates. Prior to the debates Brash was seen as a meek bookish quite type, then out of nowhere he surprises Clark , Labour and the electorate with incredible political cunning and was a hair away from governing but couldn’t bring himself to call Winston.
The stakes are so low for luxon that becoming a savage political operator during the election would blindside labour.
Hipkins has everything to lose, while I disagree that he has the charm of Lange or the relatability of Arden (he comes off to me as a robot with no personality afraid to say anything he actually believes much like Hilary Clinton, he always takes long gaps before answering a question and you can literally feel him doing math about what is the most well polled answer)
While he is unlikable imo, he does come off as a Clark intelligent and brutal. However he lacks Helen Clarks confidence, he lacks her understanding of the electorate and he lacks her backbone.
Clark didn’t mind pissing people off, she always knew she was right and she knew to trust her instincts. She was polarizing but she would say hell she felt. Hipkins says what he thinks we need to hear and when he does trust his instincts he’s usually apologizing a week later for denying something was happening.
Hipkins to me is more Goff.
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