National are selling a Labour minority led Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Maori Party as the ‘coalition of chaos’ which exposes a grotesque level of ignorance on Chris Luxon’s behalf.
So how would a Labour led Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Maori Party would actually work?
If Labour + Green are reliant on the Māori Party for votes to get the 51% necessary to pass the budget, there would be a price extracted from Labour for that supply and confidence. vote
There will be bottom-lines that the Māori Party will require in return for that supply and confidence vote.
If those bottom-lines are universal policies like GST off food and taxing the Rich, the Maori Party say themselves up as true disruptors and build legacy towards 2026.
The Māori Party would then go onto the cross benches and if their list of demands on policy is too great, it allows Labour to turn to the National Party for votes instead.
The cross bench giveth and it can taketh away, if the Maori Party demands are too great it allows National to offer up votes for legislative changes.
This isn’t ‘chaos’, this is how MMP is supposed to work.
The issue for the Left are what the bottom-lines the Maori Party will demand.
They could be very selfish demands that will permanently damage the Māori Party or they could be wide ranging policy like GST off food that would make an enormous difference to poor people.
That is the true question of the 2023 election, what can the Maori Party gain for their supply and confidence vote.
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It wouldn’t
We’re all swing voter’s I think ACT has adjusted to this new normal better than the rest by giving themselves over to the gun lobby. And the moari party giving themselves over to the dreams of the underclass is supposed to be chaotic? You two are crazy.
The other outcome is a hung parliament and another election. Italy/Israel style politics where absolutely nothing gets done.
TPM have to be aware that they cannot be in parliament just for Maori. They need to consider the implications of ALL their policies on the total population.
For if not careful, the peoples parliament will not function and voters may well take a dim view of their stance. TPM need to be political savvy enough to maintain their voter base and if that voter base sees nothing but connived nothingness they may well give up on TPM.
Same applies to Labour, voters will take a dim view of a not able to do anything parliament.
Very little has been said of the $800M in the budget for Maori only spending.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/budget-2023/490185/budget-2023-what-s-in-it-for-maori
You can see how the cost of maintaining supply and confidence for a minority government comes with fish hooks. More money for us or no supply and confidence. Bullying or stand over or blackmail tactics to the fore?
“While Te Pati Māori welcomed parts of the Budget – particularly the boost for Te Matatini, which co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said was “the exact amount” they wanted – she and her colleague Rawiri Waititi were left disappointed.”
Howe long before the main parties splinter and we have the New Zealand Indian part (or Chinese or Asian) parties sitting on the cross benches demanding more money for Divali or Dragon Boat festivals? Seeing Kapa Haka is now supported by tax payers largess.
Both the left and the right need brand new parties that actually represent public opinion. Not begging the same crooks for more crumbs.
It’ll never work. The rich’ll make sure of that.
Tax the rich!
You have hit the nail on the head Bomber.
Why exactly are Labour MPs never expected to be responsible? Why do they have to be pushed onto their own track by the minor parties?
This is like the idea of hopeless drunks who can’t be trusted. They will just keep drinking and avoiding their adult responsibilities.
What is the mental sleight of hand in the *expectation* that the children (in this analogy) assume responsibility, even where doing so, goes against their own particular interests.
What is obscured in this picture is that Labour is not their freaking family. Unlike the children in a disintegrating family, these parties will survive if Labour crashes.
If you want even more of what we currently have (i.e. high inflation/cost of living – ALL of which Labour/Greens caused under their watch) then have it. I can’t for the life of me see how voting for more of this is going to solve it. Rocks in your head maybe?
“What can the Maori Party gain for their supply and confidence vote”?
Watch this space. If you thought the Labour Maori caucus alone had some leverage we ain’t seen nothing yet. Some self-serving their own interests but one would hope a lot also relevant to the wider electorate.
The scenario you are describing is more like something we regularly see in Canada than an MMP arrangement.
Canada has had minority govts for 12 of the passed 20 years and the incumbent liberals are able to seek support from the left NDP, french Nationalists or the right conservatives.
These arrangements are by nature unstable and usually last a maximum of 18 months.
We have never had a situation where the balance of power sat in the cross bench, our confidence agreements are far more akin to coalition agreements than traditional confidence agreements.
We’ve never had the balance of power on the outside pissing in we’ve always had them on the inside pissing out.
MMP unlike everywhere else it’s been implemented, has actually made our parliament MORE partisan and I doubt National will give supply to a labour/green minority govt, especially if National is larger than Labour.
The scenario you describe with the Maori party in the cross bench will result in this :
Come next budget labour will implement some of the Maori party’s economic policies but refuse to implement it’s Nationalist/Separatist policies,because it would be political suicide.
Maori party, storms off , condemns Labour, calls Hipkins a colonialist white supremacists like they did with Jacinda)
Greens follow the Maori party, a resurgent national party refuses to support labours budget, the budget fails in the house, which is a confidence vote, and the country has a snap election with a huge swing to the right. Maori voters turn on the Maori party for not cooperating with Labour.
The true MMP solution to a situation where a radical nationalist/separatist party holds the balance of power is found in Germany, where Labour and National would form a grand coalition or Lab/Act/green (Germanys incumbent govt) or Nat/green/act form an MMP govt.
Unfortunately New Zealanders don’t use MMP like any other country and the scenario where the Maori party holds the balance will result in a budget failing to ascend and a snap election.
Well, Corey, in the context of broader history, stranger things have happened. And it would be just another strangeness in a growing list of late. So, may well come to fruition. Why is it that NZer’s dont use MMP as any others? Strength or flaw?
kIWI, whiy, yer vot always, farm fence, house mortgaged, tha!ts why. if i vote different, i will get the sack.
Capitalism, exploit,, wake up.
Coalition of Choas would only work with NZ First in the mix.
Again – GST off food will do nothing for food prices – Yah dreaming mate.
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