GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Putin can kiss Kerch Bridge and Bakhmut Good Bye!

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The Daily Blog
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2001

Unfortunately, Victory Day was not celebrated with the start of a large Ukrainian offensive. Instead, 9 May, Victory Day came and went without a bang. However, regardless of President Zelenskyy’s recent statement that Ukraine needs more time before attacking, there are certainly strong indications that Ukraine is transitioning to offensive operations.  

First, let’s look at the Victory Day Parade. The Moscow parade, historically a chance for the Soviet Union; and then Russia to flex its military muscles was marked by an absence of military hardware. No long columns of T-90, T-80 and T 72 tanks rolling across Red Square.  Instead, we got to see a handful of 80-year-old T 34s lead a parade of light armoured personnel carriers and reconnaissance vehicles past the assembled dignitaries and veterans.  Even rolling a few intercontinental ballistic missiles out, did not recapture the traditional gravitas of the Victory Day parade. 

The great Marshals of the Soviet Union like Zhukov, Vasilevsky and Konev who commanded the armies that smashed the Nazi German war machine will be rolling in their graves.  Long before the Ukraine War, the endemic corruption of Putin’s regime weakened Russia’s military.  A weakness that was not well understood in the West until Putin’s ill-conceived war highlighted it. Now by blindly carrying on in the face of logic Putin has depleted Russia’s military to the point that it can’t even stretch itself to deliver a decent Victory Day parade.

Even Putin looked tired, and his rhetoric matched his appearance.  Boring statements about ‘How this war is everybody else’s fault’ probably sounded as tired to the Russians watching as they did to the international audience.  Key observations of Victory Day are:

  • Russia is probably suffering internal security issues.  Although not often reported in legacy media, the days and weeks leading up to Victory Day were punctuated by social media reports of strange fires, aircraft crashes and industrial incidents across Russia.  Numbers are impossible to confirm but the fact that many Victory Day parades were cancelled or down-sized due to security concerns probably indicates that Russia’s government is worried.  
  • Russia’s military material is depleted. The small size of Russia’s premiere parade in Moscow demonstrates that there are simply not enough modern tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery guns or aircraft available for propaganda events.  

Bigger news is the United Kingdom’s decision to provide Ukraine with Storm Shadow cruise missiles.  Storm Shadow is a highly accurate, air-launched cruise missile that can hit a target at a range of about 5-600km.  Storm Shadow missiles are stealthy; or hard to detect on radar and are combat tested. The weapon system is very effective Storm Shadow missiles are designed to be launched from low flying aircraft that are harder for an enemy to spot on radar.  The missile is specifically designed to target bunkers and concrete structures; packing a large 450kg warhead. A warhead designed in two sections; a shaped charge to penetrate concrete followed by a second explosive charge timed to detonate inside the structure.

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Storm Shadow is an important addition to Ukrainian capabilities and its deployment contributes to a growing picture of how the Ukrainian offensive is developing.  We are currently witnessing Ukraine’s preparations, starting about three weeks ago with attacks in Russia’s rear on large fuel storage facilities in Crimea and in the east of Donetsk. At about the same time we started to see reports of increases in the number of attacks on Russia’s radar sites around the occupied areas.  Then two weeks ago information surfaced about Ukrainian HIMARS attacks on command centres, ammunition dumps and logistics infra-structure.   This is a pattern we have seen before, during the Kherson offensive. The Ukrainians isolating front line Russian forces from their logistics support and command centres.  

Storm Shadow missiles will contribute to this plan by letting the Ukrainians hit targets anywhere within occupied Ukraine.  In my opinion a key target for Storm Shadow will be the Kerch Bridge; this bridge links Crimea to Russia and is a vitally important supply route for the peninsular. The Ukrainians now have a weapons system with the range and hitting power to knock out the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine’s HIMARS can’t because the missiles they have been supplied are either full of lots of small ‘bomblets’ or grenades about 40mm in diameter, designed to penetrate the thin roof armour of tanks and armoured vehicles or to detonate and kill soldiers in the open. Others have a single 90kg high-explosive warhead that does not have the ‘cutting’ effect of Storm Shadow’s warhead. Reinforced concrete is full of steel rods that give it tensile strength, so destroying a large bridge requires a charge that will effectively ‘cut’ steel reinforcing as well as blowing the concrete apart. Exactly what Storm Shadow is designed to do.  If the Kerch Bridge is destroyed the only way to resupply Crimea is via the Crimean Land Bridge.  And; this route is probably a target of the coming Ukrainian offensive.   

It is impossible to say at this time when Storm Shadow will be used against the bridge.  My assessment though is that it will not be used until Ukraine secures the Crimean Land Corridor.  Knocking out the Kerch Bridge earlier provides Russia with confirmation that the offensive’s main effort is in the south. However, the Ukrainian’s may do the opposite hitting the bridge to decoy Russia south while they liberate Luhansk.  We just don’t know.

Another use for Storm Shadow may be long-range strikes against the vessels of the Black Sea Fleet. The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence recently highlighted the potential role of Russia’s Kalibr cruise missiles in curbing Ukraine’s planned offensive. Kalibr is Russia’s equivalent of the Tomahawk cruise missile, an accurate long-range weapon. Some variants of which can hit targets 1500-2500 kilometres away. In recent months, Ukraine’s air defence has improved and now Kalibr is one of the few systems in the Russian inventory that can still effectively engage Ukraine’s command, communications and logistics hubs deep behind the frontline. Kalibr was used lots in the early stages of the war but recently as supplies ran low is being husbanded and they are used more sparingly.  Since Kalibr missiles can impact significantly on Ukraine’s military plans; and are often fired from Russian naval vessels, it seems likely that the Black Sea Fleet may soon become a target for Storm Shadow missiles.

This week Ukraine significantly increased its pressure on Russia and we are starting to see a transition from deep ‘shaping’ attacks using long-range missiles and grounds reconnaissance towards more aggressively closing with the Russians.  Specifically, at Bakhmut where in the last couple of days Ukraine’s 10th Mountain Assault Brigade and 6th Air Assault Brigade have advanced from the north and south respectively in a manoeuvre designed to cut-off Russian forces in Bakhmut.  Initial reporting states that both brigades have advanced about 2-3 kilometres in roughly two days as Russian forces fall back.  A 2-3 kilometre advance may not sound like much but if we compare this rate of advance to Russia’s we quickly see the significance.  Further, the areas that 6th Airborne Assault Brigade took help secure access along the T 0504 road from the village of Chasiv Yar, a Ukrainian forward supply base for Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut. While 10th Mountain Assault Brigade’s advance has captured useful high ground overlooking the city. 

Essentially, there is now a risk that the Russian force trying to capture Bakhmut could be isolated and destroyed as Ukrainian forces outflank them.  This forces the Russians to decide very quickly; do they stay and fight, reinforcing Bakhmut?  Or; do they withdraw handing the city and an easy victory to Ukraine?  A tough decision for any commander, let alone one that is trying to manage a difficult relationship between Russia’s actual army and the private army of Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner Group.  It is a command nightmare that will be played out on social media as Prigozhin rants, throws tantrums and politicises the situation. 

This situation in Bakhmut will develop slowly over the next few days; but it is not the main event.  My assessment is that Bakhmut will fall relatively quickly to Ukraine, based on Russian command issues and logistic weakness. It will be almost impossible for Russia’s commanders to make a sound military assessment of the situation because of their internal conflicts, instead there will be command paralysis and poor decisions that Ukraine will use to win an important victory.  If by some stroke of luck Russia’s commanders can sort out their differences; and decide to reinforce Bakhmut they run into the issue of logistics because getting the manpower and resources they need for defence, to the city is likely to be beyond Russia’s current capabilities.  

However, no matter how successful Ukraine is in Bakhmut remember that this battle is just the start of the campaign. Reliable reports indicate the ground is still boggy and drying out across the country after winter and a rainy spring.  Ukraine is using 6th Air Assault Brigade and 10th Mountain Assault in Bakhmut, light weight infantry forces, not heavy armoured units.  It looks like Ukraine is using this battle to test and impose strain on Russia’s command structure, forcing mistakes and compromising Russian decision-making. Bakhmut is an ideal location, its psychological and political value for Putin is enormous.  Some commentators report that he ordered the city taken before Victory Day and the battle is an embarrassing demonstration of the Russian army’s weakness.  An embarrassment that has lasted for nine months; so we can be sure that there will be lots of political interference from Putin and this will further weaken military decision-making. 

In summary, we can be sure that Ukraine will slowly but surely increase the pressure over the next few days and we will see more activity around Bakhmut.  However, keep watching the rest of the country because Bakhmut is just the start and we can expect to see more activity soon.  The aim of the Bakhmut operation is to overwhelm Russia’s military planners by forcing them to make tough decisions, move resources and draw their attention away from where the real main effort will fall.  And; my assessment continues to be that when Ukraine’s main effort is revealed, it will be an advance to the Sea of Azov near Mariupol, starting from near Vuledhar.  However, I hasten to add that the only people that really know where the attack’s main effort will be are the people planning it! So, keep watching!

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger

87 COMMENTS

  1. If your predictions prove correct,Ben, then the projections of Nick J, our friendly Putinist, will be blown out of the water!

  2. In support of Ben’s assessment of the direction of the war in Ukraine, are the anonymous pro-war trolls that usually pile on Ben’s posts voicing support for the Russian Federation invasion and aggression against Ukraine, including supporting Russia’s bloody attacks on Ukraine’s people and civilian infrastructure. In support of Ben’s assessment, these blood thirsty pro-war trolls that usually claim that Russia will win this war are a lot more muted lately in making their triumphalist claims of ultimate Russian victory.

    • I’m no Russian troll. Ukraine is destroyed. What kind of victory is that?

      Something that isn’t mentioned is that western military aid is actually a loan. All those missiles and artillery shells we have been sending have to be paid back.

      Paid back by who and by what? It’s all blown up!

      No I think Putin had a lot more outs than people realise and it is the west that is impotant.

      • Not everything was a loan. Several payouts, financial or material, were donated to Ukraine. As for the rest, they’ll be paid back from infrastructure aid given by the same governments that gave the hardware.

        That infrastructure aid will build/rebuild buildings, hire staff, fix roads and bridges etc – all which will bring in taxes that will pay back the loans. It’ll draw new businesses which will also help pay back the loans.

        Then there’s repayment of a more diplomatic nature… We’ll consider X paid off if you let us lease a base in your territory (which we’ll build) or have port access for a specified amount of time.

        Then there’s repayment in the form of trade. Ukraine is a major supplier of grain and other agricultural products, now with huge surpluses from Russia interfering with grain deals. Maybe the West cuts a deal for grain a few percent below market value. They save money, Ukraine gets money for grain that would otherwise sit there and rot and that debt is again further paid down.

        Finally, I’m sure a -LOT- of that debt will simply be written off. From a PR standpoint, debt forgiveness is a lot better look for a country than hounding a country that just emerged from a war to set up a payment plan.

    • Yeah, well, peace-seeking loon here aka “blood thirsty pro-war troll” because my views differ to Pat and Ben’s. Still, I thought what was happening here was obvious (i.e. the opposite of Ben’s views) as such, and yet again, I feel sorry for the Ukrainian people for what they are putting themselves through in the name of US interests.

      • US interests bs AO. It is far more in the interest of neighbouring countries – Poland and the rest of the Visegrad group, the Baltics, Scandinavia, even Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Don’t be an idiot AO.

        • Neighboring countries have their own interests in mind for sure but none of those countries are dictating Ukraine’s actions. Ukraine’s actions are dictated by thee most powerful country in the world, the US. Unfortunately for the Ukrainian people, their politicians have sold them out, tragically so.

          • You can believe your own propaganda AO but you are patently wrong. Ukrainians have no wish to be taken over by the fascist state that is Putin’s Russia. That goes for many Russians as well.

          • I agree, Ukrainians like most people, do not want to be taken over by, unelected parties, to put that nicely, but politicians, corrupting politicians, that just takes money and between Russia and the USA, who do you think has the most money, therefore influence, to shape the will of politicians! The corrosive hand of money, largely represented by… is everywhere.

      • This is important.
        Which side any individual believes *is* winning is not the same as that person saying they believe that side *should* win.

        What has happened to basic common-sense?

  3. I really hope that this offensive is a success and it and brings the war to a close for all involved whether Ukrainian or Russian.
    Glory to Ukraine.

  4. We’re still waiting for this grand offensive that the Ukie coup regime have been endlessly touting, but now everyone is bogged down in the spring mud.

  5. Ben is dismissive of T34s at the Victory Day parade. What would a VE parade in UK be without a Spitfire fly past?

  6. Thanks for the commentary Ben!

    A couple of points:

    A hypersonic Kalibr missile was recently taken out by Ukraine’s air defence system. I think it was a Patriot that did it. That must have raised a few eyebrows!

    A great reason for not taking out the Kersh Bridge now, is that there is a full-scale evacuation from Crimea by Russians, mostly civilians. Photos of miles long queues of cars trying to get over the border have been popping up on Russian channels recently. Once the counter offensive starts, then the bridge can be hit. Then there will be no need to invade Crimea because it can be sieged and starved out. The water supply can be cut, the bridge blown, and missiles used to deter any supply ships coming near.

    • Thousands of Russians are fleeing Crimea and abandoning their properties amid concern an expected spring counteroffensive by Ukraine may target the Black Sea peninsula, a Ukrainian official has said.
      Good one Andrew, a quick Google, full of Ukrainian claims. A more subtle mind might ask whether it would be wise to besiege Crimea and cause pain to its inhabitants? Do you not think that following your prescription might result in massive pain in Kiev, Lvov and Kharkov? Going down this path wont benefit anybody.

      • Now would be a great time to get the hell out of Dodge!
        The Russians are busy digging trenches and building anti-tank obstacles. So, what does Ukraine do? Shell the place to rubble like the Russians have in Bakhmut? Or siege the place and offer free passage for civilians?
        But I think I get what you’re saying – Kiev must be careful to stay on the right side of public opinion by minimizing civilian casualties. Being vengeful is not a good look.

  7. B Awakesky there are multiple reports including some from highly credible sources plus video of 6 kinzhal, 9 kalibr and 3 S400 missiles being shot down by air defence systems over Kiev. Various air defence systems types were involved including a Patriot battery. This makes your post on the subject seem very silly and just plain misinformation. A Russian defector missile engineer has also confirmed major problems with Russian air defence systems which seem very good at shooting down their own planes.

  8. B Awakesky there are plethora of videos online plus commentary so feel free to browse. The Russian’s are now even saying that Patriot Pac 3 missiles shot down their kinzahl and kalibr missiles. Klitchko was not one of the many sources I am reflecting in my above comment. Your deflection re NZ aviation capabilities has absolutely nothing to do with my post about Russian missiles being shot down.

          • And you are a moron. You have to be an egocentric idiot to make the predictions you make – none of which come to pass. I know it is nonsensical to make absurd projections about wartime events. Even the military experts admit their fallibility. You don’t.

          • Deranged? Hardly. I have no time for a Putinist like you who delights in calling supporters of Ukraine fascists, Banderites, or Nazis when you support an evil despot who has been responsible for thousands of deaths – a war criminal. You are sick.

    • Thankfully for those too young and too old Ukrainian conscripts the meat grinder has paused. Losing 300 to 500 a day over 200 days is a nightmare, the human price of failure to negotiate last year.

      • Whose failure to negotiate? Putin is such a liar that force is the only language that he understands. Once Putin is eliminated there can be negotiations.

        • Anyone who has actually followed Russian geopolitical politics with any longevity knows that the Russians are anything but liars in their diplomacy. They say what concerns them, what they need, and what they will do if no one accepts their rights and negotiates with them as equals. And that’s not ultimately Ukraine, obviously, it’s the US regime and the “Civilised West”.

    • The ‘Moon of Alabama’ is a cesspit of Orc propaganda. I can’t believe that anyone in their right mind would patronise this site.

      • Calling anyone “orcs” totally invalidates anything you might have to say. Your comments are irrelevant.

        • You are full of nonsense Pavel. Put your cards on the table! What part of Ukraine are you from?

          • Paul I am waiting for your answer. I think you are lying about having a Ukrainian background. You have zero credibility!

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