BREAKING: TV3 Poll – BOOM – Māori Party is Kingmaker!

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2250

BOOM

It’s all over for National.

Labour – 35.9

National – 35.3

ACT – 10.9

Green – 8.1

Māori Party – 3.5

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NZF – 3

TOP – 2

Just pause and consider how strong Labour support really is that they are STILL leading in the Newshub Poll.

Demographics are hurting the National Party + NZF.

If NZ Political shows had better pundits, this wouldn’t be a shock! The Working Group (NZs number 1 weekly political podcast) has been pointing this out for sometime and The Daily Blog (NZs largest left wing blog) has also been pointing this out.

Luxon is now LESS popular than Judith Collins.

How is that even possible?

180 days out from his elections with Labour, John Key was consistently double digits ahead of Labour.

180 days out from his election with Labour, Christopher Luxon has barely managed to beat Labour and when he does it’s a couple of points.

National always over poll heavily and to win on election night need a far larger margin than they are currently registering.

The fear of the ultra wealthy is a Labour Party forced to make serious concessions to the Left. Normally the wealthy can rely on the Left being too distracted by identity politics and internal bickering to do anything meaningful against their interests, but John Tamihere and the new Māori Party he is leading are disruptors of the worst type in that they can’t be bribed.

When they say they are going to tax the rich and remove GST off food, they mean it.

That is why the wealthy Right are so interested in supporting an Epsom cup of tea deal in Northland to help Shane Jones win and ensure NZF is represented if they fall short of 5%.

The only way National can win is with ACT and NZF.

This would blunt ACTs more crazy policy while denying the Left a true political victory.

Sources tell TDB there are already considerable resources from the National Party in Northland that are quietly being deployed to support Shane.

The closer the election looks, the more desperate each side will be to win.

Election 2023: Chris Hipkins says smaller political parties should ‘be careful’ with their demands

The Prime Minister has fired a warning at smaller political parties, telling them to “be careful” with what bottom lines they make ahead of the general election or risk not being part of any governing arrangement at all.

The most important political lesson I’ve ever learned in NZ Politics is from the Laila Harre School of change.

Back when she was in Alliance, she had to force Labour to agree to maternity leave.

Can you remember and imagine that?

Having to force Labour to give maternity leave?

Laila teaches us that if we ever want the Labour Party to actually serve the people and not the vested interests of the Professional Managerial Class, then you need to smash Labour’s head against a wall, put a gun to their head and scream ‘do it’.

That’s the only way Labour will act in the interests of the people, if you force them to.

Look at the resistance Labour are digging in to stop any debate on Tax despite the IRD showing us NZ Capitalism is rigged!

There are 14 Billionaires in NZ + 3118 ultra-high net worth individuals, let’s start with them, then move onto the Banks, then the Property Speculators, the Climate Change polluters and big industry!

Labour’s acquiesce to the neoliberal economic straightjacket is the price they pay to remain in power because as we have seen they are beholden to the Professional Management Class and corporate lobbyists, the only way we get anything actually progressive out of them is if we force them. Labour’s greatest fear is a Bernie Sanders type of left wing populism, as food inflation continues to burn working people, the Māori Party’s demand to remove GST from food and to tax the rich is terrifying the interests of the ultra wealthy and that is why we are seeing the kind of insane donations difference between Labour and National/ACT.

 

ACT and National have promised to give Landlords the power to evict and build a new prison empire, they have declared class war and yet Labour are refusing to fight back.

The difference between the Māori Party and the Greens in making these demands is that John Tamihere is the kind of hard arse that can force that change through while the Greens couldn’t organise a BBQ at a vegan kink munch.

The real possibility we are facing this election is a Labour led minority Government with a supply and confidence agreement with the Māori Party, the price of which will be a range of policies that will have an immediate material impact on poor peoples pockets.

After those policies are passed in the first 100 days, the Māori Party will go to the cross benches and if their demands on policy are too extreme for Chippy, then he can go to National instead.

There won’t be a ‘Coalition of Chaos’ because Labour can work with National if the Māori Party are on the cross benches, but before that we could get the greatest upgrades to our State since Michael Savage.

I’ve argued constantly that the Greens need to Hui with the Māori Party to agree on a shared platform of policy ideas that they can negotiate with Labour as a united front but the Greens are too busy bickering amongst themselves to take the idea up.

For the last time, can the Left start working together? A National ACT Government will serve up the most extreme right wing Government we have seen since Lange, there is too much at stake to allow that to happen while also being the first chance since MMP to progress truly transformative policy.

 

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67 COMMENTS

  1. Polls are like a tightly held see saw. So who to believe Curia or TV3. Anybody know, historically who is most reliable?

    National need to work with Labour to bring about transformative change. Not for a term but for 2 or 3 terms. They need to stop politicking and get on and deal with the inequalities as well as the effed up services. If they let any of the minor parties seize the power then goodness knows where we will end up. It’s about time they realised that these days they have as much in common as their traditional allies and are more likely to get a sensible dialogue going than not.

    Still I guess it will never happen as ideology and careers are just so much more important than the country as a whole, looks like its going to be three more years on the downward spiral ahead.

    • Nats need to work with LINO to bring about transformative change? LINO have very transformative since 2020 – just not the kind of transformation I would have liked.

  2. Doubt whether Winston First with Winston & Shane Jones running the team will get over 5% with all their bullshit and bluster ?

  3. If you’re getting sick and tired of the reportage of our pointless one horse race politics, try this one on for size.
    Russell Brand talks to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
    John F. Kennedy? The CIA did it. I know, I know…
    Russell Brand:
    “Here is my conversation with Democratic Presidential candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr; where we spoke about the CIA’s involvement in the assassination of his uncle, President JFK.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGHG9b-l_1M

  4. Really don’t know why Nats keep sticking with The Lux

    He’s dead in the water

    Anyhow it doesn’t really matter who wins: they’re all equally fucked

  5. The key is NZF. National don’t want them and to Act they are the equivalent of the commies under the bed. This election will be determined by strategic voting. As the right starts to see that a). Many actually like to live in a country hurtling towards the third world and b). The only way to the Treasury benches is via Winston the right will drive this strategy and Seymour will quietly be told to swallow some rather large rats.

      • Haha. All over red rover. Poor old Peach reaching for the rope and rafter.

          • Not something that concerns me, they could always send any recidivist violent offenders out to Whakaari to mine sulphur for all I care.

          • Free Peach has his life invested in ACT.
            Why, I have no idea but it was a misplaced guidance.
            On ACT being in government…

            “You’re dreaming mate.”

            • ACT will be in Government and the firearms registry & Labour’s counterproductive firearms legislation will be consigned to the dustbin of history.

              And, according to Martyn & others, the Gates of Hell will swing open, fire & brimstone will rain down with fury upon the Earth, to the sounds of wailing & gnashing of teeth from the enlightened of the true Left, resplendent in their robes of scarlet, as Aotearoa sinks below the smoldering sea… or something like that.

              • My god, the gun issue is almost as bad as focusing on pronouns. Your arguments about gun crime in relation to restrictions don’t make sense and reek of banjo twanging, cousin dating bs.

                • And if Labour had focused on sorting out the issues in the Police regarding their handling of firearms licencing, instead of launching a full on jihad against law-abiding firearms owners, I’d still be voting Labour & the Greens, not ACT.

              • I respect David seemore. I may not like what he says but I’d never shout him down or cancel him.

    • I agree with Frank 100% but in reality, I think you are probably right Peachie. The Nats just wont accept Luxon is their death knell.

  6. I think Robertson makes a budget National can’t attack puts nails in the coffin.

    -keep GST where it is
    -No wealth taxes (I’ll come back to that)
    -Raise core benifits $40per week
    -Middle and lower income tax cuts
    -Higher end taxes unchanged
    -Export Kiwi inflation to China. Higher energy prices inflates commodity prices.
    -Implement Dr Wayne Mapps defence recapitalisation plan
    -keep the integration flood gates open. That should increase health, education and infrastructure spending up %50

    National Party intentions are good they’re mostly National Party policy there can’t be any “bad” intentions.

    Dr Wayne Mapps is a former National Party cabinet Minter, he’s a reasonably smart guy I wouldn’t say stop hearing from him but when national party members invoke the “need” claim I don’t think they use it in a way lefties would use it.

    I suggest this as an interpretation I don’t know how much of it anyone is up for but if further facts are exposed I understand that the details will change the budget.

    • That sounds like the proposal for 100.000 houses build in ten years. The sound you are hearing is L campaigning and non of that means a single thing after election day.

      • Or the sound of National promising not to raise GST and them wham, ongoing extra tax take forever…

  7. National are a pretty ‘left wing’ party. If you’re into that sort of thing, you’d likely just vote Labour. National and Labour are fighting over the same six o’clock, legacy media followers.

    Honestly, I don’t own a TV and I don’t read womans’, magazine-styled web-sites like Stuff. As such Luxon doesn’t exist in my world – It’s really nice!

    There’s nothing there, there. National are just electoral padding for an ACT driven government. National do have a hold on many electorates, which I suppose is helpful this go around.

    Mr Luxon is the man Trevor Mallard thanked publicly, IN THE HOUSE for all his ‘advice and ongoing support’ during the parliamentary protests. Trevor should have gotten a better adviser/emotional-support-tit.

    It’s pretty HA-Larious National have this half baked leader fronting them – pull the plug already, geez!

    Kick the woke wonk to the curb.

  8. Shouldn’t Laila be trying to get the Alliance Party re-elected? Even to some local councils?

    Martyn wants us to attend the ‘Laila Harré School’ of rabble-rousing, but the rabble have gone A.W.O.L. and the school is abandoned and ram-raided!

    A Harré/Robson-led Alliance Party should be polling at 10% minimum, and on track to force Labour into the same sort of humiliating collapse suffered by François Hollande. This is the era of Mélenchon, Bernie, Corbyn and R.F.K. Jr., after all.

    N.Z.F. should be well beyond 10%, and A.C.T. at about 1%. However, in the era of Trump, Winston inexplicably can’t remember how to do Trumpian politics — even though he was a true Trumpian decades before Donald himself entered politics.

    (Winston should really be running for leader of the Tories, for which he is by far the best choice. On a Trumpian platform he and the Tories would win the general election in a landslide.)

    Instead, the only options on the ballot are various shades of neoliberal tripe, which excite nobody and most people hate.

  9. That’s why Luxon had not ruled out working with NZ First. Winston will say he is needed to real in ACT. Luxon s other cup if tea options are the Freedom Party , and TOP.

  10. Be interesting to see how long a Labour/Green/TPM government would last.
    Will it last 3 years? I doubt that for Labour has to govern for the 100% and TPM is only interested in the 15% Maori blood New Zealanders.
    So we will have either a new election after maybe a year or the government lrgislative options will become so unpopular with the 85% that the rioting in the streets will force Labour to kick TPM to the kerb and try and to govern with a minority (cant pass any legislation without getting buy in from National or aACT).
    So potential for a grand coalition with National or a government including ACT.
    Italian/Israeli politics here we come. Unlikely horse trading will be the norm with TPM on the outside looking in unless they can reform and think about the 85% non Maori New Zealanders need and wants.
    General elections every year?

  11. It was Martin Bormann who said tell a lie often enough and you will be believed .I find it hard to believe that the Maori Party will hold sway after the election.Maori are no different to any other group and they have many fronts which cause descent family ,tribal,history .old grips and the failure of Labour to do any real moves to help the everyday working person ,Maori or Pakeha.
    These polls mean nothing and only represent 1000 peoples opinion at the time of asking with little thought of policies.
    The figures look realistic except for the Greens I find it hard to believe 8 voters would want the Greens let alone 8 percent

    • The Green vote is a continued mystery to me but I think I get it.

      I have some middle aged well to do green voting friends and I think they just vote greens because they are lazy and uneducated when it comes to politics.

      They like the virtuosity of being kind to the environment and see the progressiveness of the greens a nice reflection on the kind of people they like to think they are. They neither understand the issues behind the progressive agendas or the lack of environmentalism of the greens. Though educated they probably almost never read the paper or watch the tele.

      They are living in a 20 to 30 year time warp.

  12. Labour will be hoping liked hell that Luxon stays exactly where he is. Let’s face it, everything Hipkins has touched had turned to custard, COVID responded, miq, education, but he’s perceived as the ‘butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth nice guy’ not the fumbling idiot he really is, and perception is everything.

    If I was national, I would wait a little while and parachute in a pretty female as leader, who looks good on the cover of women’s magazines 2 months before the election. I mean it’s worked before.

  13. There will be no payrises under NACT. Just misery. Homlessness, joblessness, dirty air and water, as well as privatised healthcare.

  14. A lot of 3 water to flow under the bridge before the election so I suggest you all sit back and have another sausage roll.

    • 3 waters is a myth but the 5million in the donations right wing war chest will be wanting it’s bang for buck.

  15. The truism is that Polls are great when they support your world view and suck when the reverse applies.
    I don’t like profit driven company run polls, because they guide behaviour as well as report it.

    However, if this close contest election trend continues despite the corporate media wailing, the conclusion has to be that generational change is now well in play. Greybeard pundits are going down–yes you Mr Soper, Mr Plunket, Mi-cockskin and all the rest–if not this year then 2026, when hopefully there will be a revived left wing movement in league with Te Pāti Māori to finally lead us from the wilderness of Roger’n’Ruth’ cruel monetarism.

    The media will try the usual “multi headed monster” trope to try and scuttle a Labour led win, but that is how MMP is meant to work. ACT/Natzo/NZF would be an actual monstrous coalition for the majority of citizens.

    • all of us who believe in a hung parliament just see that re-enforced in these polls.

    • Yes but equally would be the coalition of chaos. Just 2 bunches of different kinds of uselessness. Hence why I think a Nats Labour coalition dedicated to good management of services and good centrist change with some progressivism is what we need. Currently one will plunge us into a brave new world without having a clue what they are unleashing or what it will cost while the others want to take us back to the draconian JK years. Neither one will achieve anything worthwhile for NZ.

  16. I keep hearing about this massive warchest National have but i don’t see them spending it so it may as well not even exist. When you think about it they are getting trounced by Labour who have 1/10th of their financial reserves because they are bold while National are timid and voters know it.

      • Which “media” is doing the heavy lifting? Try and find a positive story about anything? Luxon is failing because he opens his mouth. National just prove for every muppet Labour wheel out, National can out muppet them. if you mean there is no in-depth analysis of anything well that’s been the story for a very long time.

        ACT come out with pearlers like criminals won’t follow the law. Wow. It’s a race to the bottom

    • Good thing you’re not in charge of NZ’s war chest and our country’s defense. Impatient as you are, you’d shoot off all our missiles with no enemy in sight and watch them fizzle out in ocean…”Oh shit!” I would wait for the right moment to make sure the missile hit the target. Which is what National is doing.

      • Nah that would be the lying clown Ben Morgan who keeps saying there will be an offensive tomorrow for the last six months then refusing to publish comments that call him out on his bullshit.

      • So glad to hear that in 40 years time National will finally hit its target. Patient they are.

  17. Yeah, nah. Meka’s tantrum and waka jumping gig seems like it’s all over before it hits the water. That’s what happens when you make it all about me in Maoridom.

    So how is TCRTMP going to score a hundred thousand+ votes now?

    Who said vote rigging??

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