Over it’s 30 year history, MMP has diluted the ideological zeal of the Left and Right by always generating a middle centrist power block.
This election is utterly different to any before it.
This time it is the pent up ideological frustrations from the Right and the Left that will dictate to the centre.
This time it will be Labour held hostage to the Greens and Māori Party OR it will be National held hostage by ACT.
It will result in the most Left Wing Government since Savage or the most Right Wing Government since Lange!
That is ironically what is at stake this election, either the most Right Wing or Left Wing version of Labour.
ACT/National Government
The quick yellow Fox will jump all over the lazy blue hog.
David Seymour is 1000% smarter than Boofhead Luxon.
Luxon is a prosperity Christian who believes that he owns 7 properties and holidays in Hawaii is proof positive that Jesus loves him.
Becoming Prime Minister would be Gods will and if all that stands between Christopher Tiberius Luxon and the will of God is giving David whatever crazy far right race baiting bullshit policy he wants, then Christopher Tiberius Luxon will do it.
Nicola Willis better start planning her coup now because Chris is going to trade her Finance Minister role to David quicker than you can say, ‘Have you heard the good news?”.
So every crazy far right nutty bullshit that David is throwing around as policy will get done in the first 100 days provoking a protest Hikoi that will get increasingly aggressive as it gets closer to Wellington.
Let’s not forget, David seriously wants to hold a referendum on the Treaty, and then based on that referendum re-write the Treaty (minus any Māori negotiation) and simply enforce it upon NZ, thus sparking a race war.
He wants to amputate 6 Ministry’s and the Human Rights Commission for fucks sakes, and he means it.
Don’t think it’s bluster or shits and giggles, he is going to fucking do that plus cut billions from welfare.
Add to this National’s right to evict anti-renter law and failed military boot camps and putting ankle bracelets on children and militarisation of the police – add all that up and I don’t think most people voting ACT or National have any idea what the fuck their policies are.
Many people hurt by what we went through with Covid and many blame Labour, which is completely legit, but it is very important that if you are voting against Labour, you need to understand what you are voting for.
An ACT/National Government would be so far right, people wouldn’t know what the fuck hit us.
Labour/Greens minority Government with supply and confidence from Māori Party
The Māori Party will not go into Government, it will be a minority Labour led Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Māori Party.
The Greens are fucking hopeless and don’t know what they want or how they can get it. That Party will continue to flounder until Chloe and Efeso become leaders.
The Greens will be told what they are getting post negotiations and because they are such feckless clowns they should count themselves lucky to be included!
What the Left always forget about Mickey Savage is that he had to be forced by his Caucus to pass the great reforms, equally the Māori Party and Labour left factions will be able to pressure a cautious Chippy into the big things that need to be done.
What is most important is that the Greens and Māori Party meet now to work on a shared platform policy that must be passed in the first 100 days of the new Government.
Once that policy platform is voted through, the Māori Party will sit in the cross benches and vote on policy as it comes out.
Fractured MMP Spectrum Result
But what if it’s not just Labour/Green/Māori Party vs National/ACT?
What if NZ First also cross 5% or are given an Epsom cup of tea in Northland?
What if Labour offer Raf an Epsom cup of tea in Ilam as a counter?
What if the Māori Party get more electorate seats than Party vote and generate an over hang?
Either way, with just Labour/Green/Māori Party and National/ACT or Labour/Green/Māori Party and National/ACT plus TOP, NZF and Māori Party overhang – whoever makes the majority will do it with just 1 or 2 seat majority.
Whoever loses might not accept the result, it will take enormous leadership to deescalate right after the election who ever wins.
This is going to be a Politics with far more drama and jostling than what we are already becoming accustomed to.
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The Savage government was not concerned about pronouns or race or anything but the advancement of the working class and the people of this country as a whole. Please don’t confuse it with this social liberal mess of parties supposedly representing the “left”. They do not. The university class is who they appeal to!
Totally agree
The Savage government was not concerned about pronouns or race or anything but the advancement of the working class and the people of this country as a whole. Please don’t confuse it with this social liberal mess of parties supposedly representing the “left”. They do not. The university class is who they appeal to!
Agree
For the first time we are at risk of dying from having to much to eat. It is the affluence from having to much to eat. Areas of New Zealand where they don’t have enough to eat don’t make these types of decisions.
The current government is dividing the country along racial lines, so in fact it’s the CURRENT government which is truly right wing.
“This election is utterly different to any before it”.
Well, yes and no. For sure very different to the pandemic election some 3 years back, and also very different to the 11th hour card played by Labour in 2017 when the fresh face and optimism of Jacinda Adern captured middle NZ and Winston sealed the deal. Those two scenarios won’t be playing out this time. But aren’t all general elections unique? But I have a sense that Bomber is correct, a fair proportion of the electorate far from content with the status quo, but no landslide for the opposition, a pretty close result and the potential for surprising configurations. And a lot drama. If by some chance Chris Luxon were to step aside in favour of Nicola Willis, now wouldn’t that make it even more interesting! She’s in on the list so may not have the mandate but has the pedigree and seems well capable of the task. Not that I’m giving her a shout out. Just saying.
I resent you calling the crazyness ‘left’. Left means representing people who work for a living AKA labour. The thing is here if you vote labour/green/marori you get zero left policies, just crazy. If you vote national act you get plenty of toxic craziness but at least you get some (real) right policies (like freedom of speech). P.s. I don’t count unbridled greed as a (real) right policy any more than I count telling people what to think and say as a real left policy.
ACT is all bluster and is really harmless. I can’t see them doing much but keep the status QUo. Will be a few slight tweaks in first 100 days for sure, to balance the books. But nothing Labour would not do under a different policy name.
Mate, ya dreaming. If Jim Anderton couldn’t force Labour away from Neoliberalism back in the 90s, back when people still talked about class, during a Labour/Alliance govt with support from the Greens, THERES NO WAY a Labour Green Maori govt will.
If Jim Anderton, Laila Harre, Rod Donald, Jeannette fitsimons, Georgina Beyer, Nandor , Sue Bradford and co couldn’t move the dial there is no way that political show ponys like Shaw, Davidson, Swarbrick, Tamihere, Willie Jackson (who were both there in the fifth labour govt) etc are going to shift the NZ left away from identity and back to class …. These people are identiarians.
The most left wing govt since Savage was and will remain Kirk.
As long as Labour or national hold the Treasury benches there will be no deviation from the status quo.
Labour doesn’t remember what left is.
The most important problem that will see me voting against my short-term interests as well as my left-wing values to try and shift in the upcoming election, is the unchangeable bloc of all the elected parties that currently renders voting pointless.
Oh goodie!
I just can’t wait.
The future under a post-election Labour / Green / Maori Party govt:
Albino one-legged Cook Island transvestite (who if overstaying mustn’t be disturbed before midday) = Ok
Anyone else = Most definitely the enemy and probably a Nazi*
*Also pays all the tax
1) The current Labour govt are not left-wing or anti-neoliberal. They’re very much within a neoliberal policy regime – like low taxes on the wealthy, reducing inflation, de-regulation of the economy and free trade, long-term fiscal responsibility etc. While they’re not hardline neoliberals, and accept the need for some govt tinkering, that tinkering is small-scale and won’t disrupt core neoliberal policies. So with the current cost of living crisis Labour are giving out a few band aids like transport subsidies but they seem to be happy to see the reserve bank let rip with a classical neoliberal response to inflation by engineering a recession to force down our living standards (despite reforming the reserve bank to make it aim for ‘max sustainable employment’, whatever that means). I think Labour are Blairite/Clarkist ‘third way’ neoliberals or ‘centrists’.
2) They’re not more left wing than the 1972-75 Kirk govt, or the 1957-60 Nash one, both of whom were keynesian govts who supported full employment, protectionism, progressive taxation etc. While both these govt did many anti working class things (eg black budget, deporting overstayers, a wage freeze in 1973-74, and law and order bashing of striking unions), the 72-75 govt expanded the welfare state (ACC and DPB) and ended compulsory military training and pulled the final troops out of vietnam etc etc.
There’s a lack of real choice at the next election if you’re on the left. There are some socially liberal parties but I cant see a left-wing one.
Let’s consider what being ‘the most left since Savage’ would actually mean — i.e. to the left of Fraser, Nash, Kirk and Rowling.
None of the major reforms by Savage were abolished by the others — which means it would be almost identical to the Savage platform. Everybody in Parliament is far to the right of that, and it would mean reversing almost every government policy since the mid-1980s.
The list of abolished reforms that would need to be restored is enormous:
EMPLOYMENT — Restoration of the full employment policy (zero non-frictional unemployment), all Industrial Awards (restoring all penalty rates & maximum hours), the basic wage, universal trade union membership, the state labour exchanges and the Public Works Department.
INDUSTRY — Restoration of tariffs, import substitution, the import licensing system, and industrial planning. Reopening of all offshored factories, resuming local production of most finished goods.
RESOURCES — Restoration of the State Mines, State Refinery, state gasworks and fields (Petroleum Corporation), Electricity Department, state steelworks (N.Z.S), Synthetic Petroleum Corporation, State Forest Service lumber, cotton production scheme.
CIVIL RIGHTS — Restoration of the Amended Webb Act (I.C.A. Act), thereby overturning the ban on secondary and political strikes.
CURRENCY — The NZD. returned to fixed rate, gold-backed, fully-convertible currency. Restoration of gold and silver coinage.
BANKING — Re-nationalisation of the Bank of New Zealand (N.A.B), Rural Bank (A.N.Z. Rural), Development Finance Co. (Citibank), State Insurance Co., & Government Life Insurance (Tower Ins. Co.). Most other bank accounts transferred back to the control of the Post Office or (member-owned) provincial trustee savings banks (i.e. part-nationalisation of Westpac, A.N.Z. & Commonwealth Bank).
TRANSPORTATION — Restoration of all tramways (Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Dunedin, New Plymouth, Napier, Gisborne, Wanganui, Invercargill). Restoration of all long-haul passenger rail lines (interprovincial and regional), suburban rail lines (Christchurch, Dunedin), & trolleybus lines (Auckland, New Plymouth, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin).
Restoration of the state shipping corporation (N.Z.S.C.). Nationalisation of N.Z.R. Road Services long-haul coachlines (InterCity Co.).
HOUSING — Return to previous per-capita level of state houses (24,100 new homes). 5,000 new state houses per annum thereafter (past peak level). Restore slum clearance, desegregation and rent controls.
HEALTH — Restoration of free prescription medicine, free general practice visits. The (many) closed hospitals reopened. Restoration of hospital board elections.
EDUCATION — Restoration of free tertiary education. Reopen all closed schools. Restoration of the School Milk Act.
AGRICULTURE — Restoration of state subsidies and guaranteed gate price for farmers. Restoration of single-desk export boards and domestic price controls.
COMMUNICATIONS — Nationalisation of all telecommunications, returning control to the Post Office.
BROADCASTING — Nationalisation of the broadcasters, returning control to the N.Z.B.C. Reopen all local stations, and resume commercial-free service.
AND SO… you’re now ‘as left as Fraser’. You’re still not done — you have to be more left still to be the ‘most left since Savage’!
Every single one of those absolutely necessary minimal patriotic policies sabotaged by the traitor Lange and his successors could and should be IMMEDIATELY put back in place by a human government coming to power against the neoliberal uniparty, and enshrined in a constitution to ensure that anyone opposing them gets imprisoned as a traitor.
What on earth is ‘left-wing’ about the current neo-liberal regime?
Helen Clark at least pretended to have some foreign policy independence while sending occupational soldiers to Iraq to support the American occupation. Muldoon did more for Maori sovereignty in the Kia Ora incident than Hipkins ever would, and every government, included Muldoon’s, prior to the filthy traitor Lange who should have tried Roger Douglas for treason and delivered the ultimate punishment were more economically sound than these neoliberal traitors.
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