GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – United States intelligence slips up but will it stop Ukraine smashing Russia?

Regardless of the Russian Army and Wagner Group cooperating, Bakhmut still holds and remains the focus of military activity on the ground in Ukraine. At this stage though this battle is a distraction from the bigger campaign question – When and where will Ukraine’s offensive blow fall?  Almost all military commentators now accept that Russia is exhausted; and that even if Bakhmut is captured, Russia will need to pause there before pushing west towards the cities of Kramatorsk or Severodonetsk. 

 At this stage, the war could be related to Muhammed Ali’s famous fight against George Foreman in Zaire; billed as the ‘Rumble in the Jungle.’ Foreman was younger, bigger and stronger than Ali. So Ali fought a tactical battle, letting Foreman expend his energy and tire himself out, Ali protecting his head but letting Foreman hit his body. Round after round, Ali avoided being knocked out continuously taunting Foreman including asking in the seventh round “That all you got, George?” when a powerful punch caught him.  Then when Foreman was exhausted Ali came from behind and knocked him out.

And; we are seeing a similar situation develop in this campaign, Ukraine holding the line but encouraging Putin to keep throwing punches at Bakhmut.  Every human wave attack that is launched reducing Russia’s combat power for very limited returns.  At this stage, the defence is holding but even if it fails, Russia is no better placed looking at a tough advance to attack Kramatorsk or Severodonetsk two large cities well sited for defence.  Fifty kilometres south of Bakhmut, at Avdiivdka and further south at Vuledhar large Russia attacks have been defeated. And; there are even reports that Ukraine has successfully regained ground near Avdiivdka.  

This week news of Russian defector Gleb Karakulov broke providing insights into why Russia is failing so badly.  Karakulov, was a captain in the FSB and worked in electronic intelligence and security in Putin’s protection team. Karakulov’s defection provides a ‘peek behind the curtain’ within the Kremlin. The situation he describes is familiar to anyone that has read about dictators; who inevitably over-time descend into paranoia and isolation.  Karakulov reporting that Putin “has lost touch with the world” preferring to distance himself from most people to avoid disease or assassination.  Further, that he is worried about electronic surveillance so avoids the internet and phones relying instead on personal briefings from key aides. “He has been living in an information cocoon for the past couple of years, spending most of his time in his residences, which the media very fittingly call bunkers. He is pathologically afraid for his life. He surrounds himself with an impenetrable barrier of quarantines and an information vacuum. He only values his own life and the lives of his family and friends” said Karakulov. This description is like descriptions of Hitler, Idi Amin, Saddam Hussein or a hundred other despots in the last stages of their regimes.  

Karakulov’s information confirms suspicions about Putin; providing a reason for why the Russians continue to throw resources into the Battle for Bakhmut, almost seeming to be going out of their way to conform to Ukraine’s strategy.  Throughout the war, we have had reports about Putin’s influence over tactical decision-making including that he micro-manages the campaign. Karakulov’s insights confirm that his information sources are limited; likely only people in his inner circle including Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of Defence Force Valery Gerasimov, Director of the FSB Alexander Bortnikov, Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev and Sergei Ivanov who led Russia’s 2016 interference in the United States presidential elections.  A group of people with long-standing personal connections to Putin, who rely on Putin for their power and prestige.  And; are likely to be unwilling to bring Putin bad news.  Unfortunately for Russia, military commanders need good information or they make bad decisions and Putin’s vicious kleptocracy disincentivises honest reporting. 

This situation provides an explanation for Russia’s bad decision-making and explains why forces continue to be thrown into the meat grinder at Bakhmut.  If Russia stopped offensive action, husbanded its ammunition and consolidated reserves in depth it may be able to stop the coming Ukrainian offensive.  Instead, they keep throwing away men and material on capturing Bakhmut. Putin’s underlings hoping against hope that with enough bodies they may just snatch a victory; and not have to bring their leader bad news. 

Meanwhile across the border Ukraine is preparing, commentators estimate that Ukraine has 60-100,000 soldiers in depth ready to move.  Troops trained across NATO are returning to the country and slowly new NATO weapons are trickling into the country.  However, there may be a problem for Ukraine. 

This week it was reported that leaked United States intelligence documents circulated on social media.  First, a screen shot of Ukrainian forces dispositions. Later, five photographs of classified documents. The documents are roughly a month old; and were published on 4Chan in March then used on Telegram recently.  First reports played down the importance of the leak; but recent information about the documents and their source indicates that this leak may be more significant than expected. The FBI starting an investigation and a senior United States official quoted describing the leak as “a massive intelligence breach.”

The breach is important because it may indicate that Ukraine’s forces are weaker than expected and provide useful insight into United States intelligence operations including their penetration of Russian networks and American activities spying on allies.  So far, we know that they include:

• Assessments of Russia’s military, including casualty estimates. 
• Assessments of Ukraine’s military position, force location including discussing concerns about the Battle of Bakhmut and details of NATO weapons available in country. 
• Details of United States spying on Ukrainian officials and on Israel. 

The leak appears to contain legitimate information because there are two versions available online an ‘original’ version; and a ‘doctored’ version that reduces the number of Russian casualties and is being circulated on Russian social media. It is unlikely that if it was a fake leak there would be two version’s circulating.  This leak is significant and may impact the campaign. Silverado Policy Accelerator’s Russia analyst Dmitri Alperovitch summed the situation up in the following statement: “If real, the leaking of these documents can do significant damage to the Ukrainian counteroffensive since this information effectively provides Russia with Ukrainian order of battle — extensive information on capabilities of brigades that would be involved in upcoming counteroffensive.” 

This leak is also interesting because some of the leaked information was shared within the ‘Five Eyes’ network; and the other members of ‘Five Eyes’ (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, United Kingdom) are all awaiting the result of the damage assessment.  And; a significant impact of this leak may be a loss of trust and confidence in United States intelligence procedures amongst its allies.  

The impact of these leaks on the campaign is uncertain, my estimate is that being a month old the information is relatively out of date tactically and will not influence the campaign significantly.  The biggest risk is the loss of trust and confidence within the allied intelligence community.  It will be especially troubling if a ‘Five Eyes’ partner has slipped up. In general, my assessment is that Ukraine is still on track to transition to offensive operations. 

Retired Australian general Mick Ryan, recently visited Ukraine and reported that preparations for an offensive are advanced, that Ukraine is establishing 2-3 new corps.  A corps is a formation of 2-3 divisions or roughly 30-50,000 soldiers.  A corps provides a formation of sufficient size and strength to mass force at a point on the frontline and punch through defences.  General Ryan’s information tallies with commentator’s assessments of Ukraine’s military strength. Chair of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Miley confirmed that the United States is working with Ukraine supporting their planning telling media that senior officers were wargaming options and stating that “The Ukrainians are moving things around on these maps to determine what is their best course of action.” Further, last month Kyrylo Budanov, the Major General in charge of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence organisation stated that the decisive battle will happen this spring.  Last time, he made a statement like this it proved correct.  

This information probably indicates that Ukraine is on course for its offensive; and further there has been an increase in HIMARS and missile attacks in Crimea and South Zaporizhzhia.  Possibly confirming a prediction made in this column some weeks ago that this is the area that will be attacked; and that the attack will be preceded by strikes against Russian targets in depth.  However, remember that when the offensive starts it is likely that attacks will take place on more than one axis.  A feint in one direction followed by the real attack elsewhere.  

Internationally, this week the war was influenced by two events; French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to China and Finland joining NATO. 

Macron and von der Leyen’s travelled to China and met separately with Xi Jin Ping.  Ukraine was on the list of topics for discussion. Macron, went to China ready to appease – asking for Xi Jin Ping’s help to negotiate with Putin. He was welcomed with open arms and friendliness.  Von der Leyen, on the other hand arrived in China ready to hold Xi to account for supporting Russia; and her reception was less friendly.  

This is a sad state of affairs because China’s refusal to provide military support for Russia results from the prospect of European and United States economic sanctions. So, it is vital that European diplomacy sends a consistent message and does not provide exploitable chinks that can be used to divide the alliance. Macron has consistently been a weak link in the European collective and demonstrates a level of naivety in his relationships with Putin and Xi.  Confirmed by this meeting in which regardless of Macron’s good will and reasonableness Xi has not changed his stance on the war, committed to meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyer Zelenskyy or to helping broker a peace process.  

Macron, could take some lessons from Finnish President Sauli Niinistö who gave a magnificent speech at the NATO acceptance ceremony.  A speech that highlighted Finland’s independence and unwillingness to be cowed by Russia; and that included saying that if Putin wants to know why Finland joined NATO – “he should look in the mirror.” Niinistö is cut from a different cloth and knows that historically appeasement does not work. Finland’s acceptance into NATO is a massive blow for Russia strategically, not only does Finland bring a large and highly trained military into the alliance it also doubles the NATO/Russia border.  Further, Finland’s geographic position helps NATO secure the Baltic republics.  

In summary, we are approaching a turning point in the war. Ukraine’s forces are building up for its planned offensive, and although it is possible that progress will be affected by information in the leaked American documents it still seems likely that as the ground dries the offensive will start.  An offensive will create a key decision-point because either:

• Ukraine will achieve significant success re-capturing key areas, specifically the Crimean Land Corridor forcing Russia to parley or be defeated; or
• Russia will defeat the offensive, soaking up Ukraine’s forces and losing minimal terrain forcing Ukraine to negotiate. 

Unfortunately, it seems that the situation is binary and that if Ukraine is not successful then long-term it risks losing United States and NATO political support; or being dragged into a long slogging match that it can’t win.  However,  Ukraine has demonstrated the capability to defeat the Russians and with the extra support they have received we can be optimistic that the offensive will be successful and that Russia will be knocked out in the eighth round!

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger