The ratcheting up of tension and trade war talk in just a week is a reminder of how trigger happy the geopolitical situation in the Pacific has suddenly become.
With yesterdays announcement by Australia to purchase a fleet of British designed nuclear submarines with the sudden possibility of an immediate purchase of five Virginia-class submarines from the US.
For the West, the Australian nuclear submarines armed with hypersonic missiles presents a first strike capacity platform against mainland China that the Chinese will find utterly unacceptable.
This latter news means Hawks within China who will have argued for a strike against Taiwan before Australia gain this capacity (2040), should strike now before Australia buys the Virginia-class submarines from the US.
As those new calculations are considered in this Chess match between China and America, NZs SIS have outed a possible spy while Chippy was unambiguous that NZ would consider sanctions against China if China resources Russia as part of the Ukrainian war effort, a conflict that China now views as strategically import to back Russia in so as to sap American strength.
The threat of a trade war occurs as America prepares sanctions and the NZ State secretly discusses moving away from China economically to avoid them having any hold over us if they start a trade war.
On the heels of that, this morning the former US Ambassador says that the US should infill any drop in trade China threats us with.
The constant drum beat for war means we must consider our geopolitical position, and from that point of view, only the Māori Party have engaged meaningfully by suggesting neutrality…
“In 1987 Aotearoa declared that we were nuclear free. Te Pāti Māori now declares that Aotearoa must be militarily neutral, a Switzerland of the South Pacific” said Rawiri Waititi.
“We must asset our Rangatiratanga and Mana Māori Motuhake. In doing that, we must assert our own Foreign Policy and Military requirements. We will no longer have our sovereignty determined by others, whether it is in Canberra, London, Washington, Beijing or Moscow.
“We will no longer be a political football in the wars of imperial powers. We will no longer act as a Pacific spy base for the Five-Eyes Alliance”
…this is an intelligent proposal and alongside our independent foreign policy should be the bindings of a strong national identity.
Let’s be clear, not one of us wants to get tricked by America into fighting China.
We need to increase Military GDP spending to 3%. Interestingly Labour have quietly ratcheted GDP military spending from just over 1% to just under 2%.
I believe that the climate crisis means we need a vastly larger military to cope with civil disasters and if we are attempting to distance ourselves from China and America, we need to make a decision to dramatically lift what we spend on the military for purely defensive capacity.
How would we go about defending the realm of NZ and all our economic exclusive zone?
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I don’t know who “America” is supposed to be but USA is sure ratcheting things up, just as they did over the past decade in Ukraine and Eastern Europe. As their economic hegemony wanes their military brinkmanship escalates.
The US electorate needs to put those neoCon warmongers like Blinken and Nuland out of office.
We could start by instituting the equivalent of the US “Second Amendment”, so at least we can defend ourselves from foreign invaders, regardless of the capabilities of our standing army.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
But I’m pretty sure that isn’t what you’re thinking here, ‘cos God forbid that we should be allowed to individually defend ourselves from oppression.
People who make claims like NZ could be the Switzerland of the South Seas have no clue what independence means.
We could be neutral yes, but that is not the same.
Switzerland has an extremely well trained military, sophisticated weaponry, natural barriers to invasion, economic independence and resilience, a strong sense of identity and nationalism, unity, civil liberties and a long history of democracy and the ability to withstand any invasion including a system of redoubts.
In other words they have the wherewithal to be independent, it is not something one just naively proclaims just as the schoolyard bully is about to lay you out in the hope it might save your ass.
Scott C
Don’t say any more. We can’t handle so much truthful basic information at once. How about you put it in a cake and it bursts out half-cut with a cherry on its head.
Meanwhile I’ve just been reminded of a Dilbert cartoon where he holds a sign with large letters pointing the way to Unattended Piles of Money. Unfortunately it is right next to a cliff edge and all the zombie NZs are toppling over, both the rats and the fatcats from toppish management.
Unfortunately the artiste Scott Adams should stick to drawing and restrain his mouth. The everlasting mischievous polls have resulted in him saying something that is both stupid and racist at the same time. I think that even cutting edge cartoonists have to learn restraint to some extent as we all are biased in some way, so play it like lawn bowls and watch your bias so your bowl is prevented from speed wobbles.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/484893/dilbert-cartoon-dropped-after-racist-rant-bycreator-scott-adams
…Adams’ initial remarks came in response to a conservative Rasmussen Poll that appeared to show that 26 percent of Black respondents said they disagreed with the statement “It’s okay to be white.” Another 21 percent said they were not sure.
However, Rasmussen also said the online and phone survey last week of 1000 likely US voters showed that 72 percent of Americans overall agree it’s OK to be white, compared with 12 percent who disagree…
Great comments.
Whether or not Australia gets Virginia submarines is irrelevant when it comes to China’s calculations concerning Taiwan. Those calculations are entirely dependent on China’s assessment of the reactions of the United States. Given that the United States has strongly indicated that it will come to Taiwan’s aid, not just in the supply of arms, but as an actual combatant, there is no chance that China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan. An invasion attempt would be defeated with massive loss of life of the Chinese invaders. Chinese strategists know the reality of that.
As for New Zealand becoming a neutral nation, this entirely ignores New Zealand’s relationship with Australia. A formal declaration of neutrality would end all preferences with Australia. New Zealand is the only nation whereby its nationals can go and permanently live in Australia, without needing to become formal immigrants. That right, which has been used by millions of New Zealanders, would be entirely lost if New Zealand became a neutral nation and thus abandoned any security obligations with Australia.
Te Parti Maori’s view on this is entirely fanciful. It will never be picked up by Labour, being the major party of the left. Neither will Labour ever bow to their minor coalition parties on this. The only way Aotearoa New Zealand becomes a neutral nation is for Te Parti Maori and the Greens to become the major components of a government of the left. That is not going to happen any time in the next thirty years. The ethos of our nation would have to change in quite a dramatic way before that could happen.
So when did war with China become a thing? Who is calling for it? Why now? Who is threatening whom?
Seems to me the sabre rattling is coming through the corporate media from the USA.
Be aware that while Switzerland is neutral, it is armed to the teeth. It has nuclear shelters for its entire population too. Neutrality sounds good but it is VERY expensive.
Be aware that while Switzerland is neutral, it is armed to the teeth. It has nuclear shelters for its entire population too. Neutrality sounds good but it is VERY expensive.
Anyone who trusts American promises is mentally retarded, and should be treated like their fellow dupes (Kurds, Juan Guaido).
‘former US ambassador’ Scott Brown is a serial sex pervert.
Who’s the guy in the image? Reminds me of the dead guy in Weekend at Bernies. Is that supposed to be a typical PMC NZ m.le?
The truth bursting half-cut out of a cake announces sternly ‘Don’t trifle with me!’ Sorry but laughter is so essential when the national armies start to paw the ground and snort and then send in killer drones as well. We have shut the mental hospitals and psychiatrists just treat the unhappy psychopaths and crims till they can stabilise them with pills and then say ‘Look how nice and quiet the lyin’ beast is’ – he/she will be fine. Also an idea you could watch Short Circuit on DVD while you park your brain for recharging.
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