BOOM!
Labour is back on top in the latest Taxpayer’s Union Poll
Labour – 35.5%
National – 34.8%
ACT – 9.3%
Greens – 5.7%
NZF – 4.2%
Māori Party – 1.4%
For the first time in a year, Labour has taken the lead on 35.5% up 1.1 points on last month while National is on 34.8% up 0.4 points on last month.
ACT is down 2.4 points to 9.3% while the Greens have dropped 2.1 points to 5.7%. This is perilously close to the 5% threshold for getting seats in Parliament (unless Chlöe Swarbrick can hold onto her Auckland Central electorate).
New Zealand First, on the other hand, sees a boost of 1.3 points to 4.2% – within striking distance of re-entering Parliament. The Māori Party is on 1.4 per cent – down 0.7 points – and will again have to rely on holding at least one electorate to get any list seats.
Other smaller parties were the New Conservatives on 2.5% (+1.7 points), TOP on 1.7% (-0.3 points), Vision NZ on 0.8% (+0.6 points) and Democracy NZ on 0.5% (-0.4 points).
Chippy’s move from ideology to delivery, from social justice to economic justice and his competence with the storms are all giving Labour strength, but as TDB has been warning, the Greens are in trouble and their alienating identity politics is coming home to roost.
ACT will be disappointed to lose their double digit shine while NZFirst are hovering at the threshold.
Look at these favourability numbers for Chippy…
…even National voters like him!
I’ve previously argued that Chippy was connecting with Kiwis on a deep level…
Chippy’s leadership has been helped immensely by Wayne Brown’s train wreck interview during the Auckland Anniversary Flooding and the enormity of the challenge in front of us post Gabrielle demands a practicality that Chippy exudes.
…I’ve also argued the Greens are in trouble politically…
The lack of policy traction, the total capitulation to alienating woke dogma and identity politics activists talking over all the internal mechanisms of candidate election and policy control sees the Greens stall and they might actually get less than the polled in 2020.
…after the Greens changed their leadership rules to push males out, why would any self respecting left wing man vote Green? Woke activists are always identifiably Green, so when they cancel they make enemies, not recruits.
It is going to be a crazy and wild election.
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ACT are a faux party. The gullible still hold strong to the racist party.
In recent years Labour has been the most racist party in NZ, plenty of gullible still supporting it.
What an absolute load of horseshit. If that’s the case then the mob before them were racist too.
Any proof of that Robbie?
None of ACT’s policies stand up to any serious scrutiny!
Once the media really start to drill down into the detail and ask the vacuous “now your putting words in my mouth”,(que goofy grimace), Seymour, for his quid pro quo cost ramifications and the obsequious Brooke van Velden to show some proven working projections, it’s going to be a long painful compaign for them.
Popcorn anyone !!
Sweet… NACT government here we come.
Bahahahahaha, forever the comedian.
As the climate becomes worst Greens drop in appeal as people reconize that a serious problem needs a party more concerned in getting results and less on making sure no one is offended by anyone else .
Wow these are horrible results for every party and are only bolstered by redistributing the 9.7% wasted votes.
No disaster boost for an incumbent govt is shocking. Chris Hipkins best rule in or rule out three waters and fast and stop talking in circles about it because his honeymoon may end up being as short lived as a Kim Kardashian marriage.
Imagine what this graph would look like if NZ first vote wasn’t wasted.
Greens should be in panic mode, these numbers entitle them to only six seats and they usually overpoll compared to election results.
Labour and national are within the margin of error and National is actually starting to sound like a government in waiting while Labour just defends everything going wrong with the country.
Hipkins appealed when he looked like he was anti woke but a month in he hasn’t done anything to differentiate himself from the previous prime minister apart from say New Zealand. He needs to step up.
I was not expecting National to start bashing the banks and corporate consultants and health system chaos while offering cheaper childcare while Labour defends dysfunction and the status quo.
Seymour is sitting pretty.
The Maori party will probably earn an electorate two extra and cause an overhang.
Winston at 4.2% is back in parliament and that changes the seat number of every party.
A national/act govt is likely but a national/NZ first govt supported by act is starting to look just as likely as a Labour/green/Maori govt (which is increasingly unlikely)
If I were national I’d be tempted to give NC not an electorate deal but just not run a candidate in a safe blue seat for NC to win, they’d bring in three seats and I’d give top an electorate deal, they’d bring in two seats.
Labour and the Greens best up their game. Now. A third term is becoming more unlikely every day and now they may have to fight like hell just to save the furniture, doubly so for the greens (though they could benefit from losing some of their furniture)
Mostly margin of error stuff but mainly a few voters going back from greens to Labour.
1% for Labour is a disappointing new leader bounce, one of the smaller ones in NZ history.
NZ First threatening to be viable which will be interesting
National + ACT = 44.1%
Labour + Green + Maori = 41.1%
So the center right ahead by 3% and we are looking at a massive wasted vote on this poll which will spark discussion about lowering the 5% threshold and leave a good chunk of the electorate not represented in parliament
NZ First will easily get above 5%, if they are 4,% already. The country will be over joyed to have them as Kingmaker again.
It would be nice to see Chloe making use of the fact that she’s the only thing standing between the neoliberal scum who make up every other Greens officeholder and total electoral annihilation to push them to promote decent economic policies which help normal New Zealanders instead of bankers.
I’m not holding my breath.
It’s going to be a very exciting election
50000 unhappy teachers on strike next Thursday will show a light on how well Hipkins ran his ministry. Faulty figures from hospital reporting shows this lot cannot be trusted . The slow action in getting the problems caused by Grabrielle is starting to cause more complaint re the inaction of this government. Policy is starting to come from National and bit is being received favourably by voters .The next poll will be a game changer.
National are organising a poll here in Hawkes Bay to try and make Nash include our region in the “inquiry” into forestry slash and it has caught people’s attention. I’ve never voted Nat in my life but I signed the petition. I think you’ll find they have done their research and Labour are wide open to damaging attacks like this – no matter how good Chippie is Labour have shot themselves in both feet and the opposition will make the most of the opportunity. I despair.
I’d suggest Nationals drop and Labours gain is not on the back of Nationals “good policy”.
I’d suggest Nationals drop and Labours gain is not on the back of Nationals “good policy”.
Bigly shame I don’t really like popcorn.
I think maybe we’re going to have to wait till October before the political class get a grip of themselves. Unfortunately if it all goes tits up because the political class failed to do so, the electricate might also have to get off their chuffs and resend the message.
The thing that worries me is that the longer the political class fails to respond to electricate’s perception of reality, the more violent the outcome they wish for will be achieved.
Diddums. Cudda Shudda Wudda. Running on the failed religious ideology that is the economic orthodoxy of the past near 40 years ……… we’ll have get gotten what we deserve
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