The possible surprises of the 2023 election

I think the emergence of a well funded astro turf antivax, climate denial, Treaty denial, redneck-banjo-twanging-crystal-Karen-and-the-evangelical-wrathful-Gods-glee-club online radio station is the latest symptom that this is going to be a very weird election which will throw up all sorts of fascinating machinations.

Last election Polls underestimated Labour by 4 points and over estimated National support by almost 6 points!

Let’s look at some of the surprises the Election machinations may throw up:

Māori Party Surprise – The new rule to allow people to enrol on Election Day means almost 65 000 extra votes will be counted rather than disqualified which will have a very large impact on the Māori Electorates. The Māori Party has a chance of winning 3 electorates plus a 5% Party share with policy that pulls over pakeha beneficiaries, pakeha working poor and Pakeha Leftists. International neutrality, a Financial Transaction Tax and GST off food are all policies that could easily gain traction well beyond a Māori constituency. The Māori Party could bring in as many MPs as the Greens.

TOP coat tails in – Raf’s chance of winning Ilam has to be a serious consideration this election. TOPs continued 2% Party vote would bring in 2 MPs off the List as well as Raf as Leader, TOP could end up being the King maker.

Greens stagnate – The bitterness from being locked out of their home country has not been factored into the overseas vote that has traditionally benefitted Labour or the Greens and may well favour the more reactionary message of ACT this election. The lack of policy traction, the total capitulation to alienating woke dogma and identity politics activists talking over all the internal mechanisms of candidate election and policy control sees the Greens stall and they might actually get less than the polled in 2020. They might pick up Wellington Central, might have a chance in Rongotai. Chloe’s most recent interviews against Brooke Van Veldon on TVNZ however suggests Chloe might be too burnt out to take Auckland Central again.  They have been dreadful interviews and Chloe doesn’t;t look like she knows how to argue outside the Green Party Echo Bunker.

Another Climate Event – The problem for National and ACT is that they want to constantly cut the State back so that there is no revenue to redistribute in the first place. This deregulation free market small Government bullshit only works if people aren’t sprinting towards the State in fear for protection. More climate events will drive the narrative that there needs to be vastly more capacity in the State and that the rich should pay for it. Another climate event demands a bigger State response, you can’t cut taxes while the country is drowning!

NZ First cock blocked by Climate Change – National was preparing to fight the election against Jacinda and then Chippy stepped in. NZ First was going to fight the election on ‘da-Maaaaaaaaris-is-getting-too-much’ but Cyclone Gabrielle stepped in. There is more of an argument now than ever before to build resilience into our provincial economic zones, what frustrated NZ First previously was the State’s snail pace process that cock blocked everything NZ First wanted to support (except for cameras on fishing boats, that looked like money well spent by the industry on that front). Rebuilding the Provinces is the perfect wink nod money for policy stuff NZ First excels at, but because they’ve spent so much energy on plotting a ‘da-Maaaaaaaaris-is-getting-too-much’ campaign,  they don’t know how to respond to events dear boy because Cyclone Gabrielle changes everything politically this year. NZ First may well slide under 5% as the Feral antivax, climate denying, Treaty denying extremists coalesce elsewhere.

Feral AntiVax, climate denying, Treaty denying extremist online radio –The sudden emergence of these feral lunatics on all one platform funded by dark money is the exact sort of political mutations you are seeing on the Right in Canada, America, Australia and the UK right now. The extremism of CounterSpin is too radioactive to become populist for the interests who want to influence the election, but the Voices For Freedom crystal Karen antivaxxers merged with the climate denying corporate farming lobby and the Treaty denial cheerleaders can masquerade as a news station with the very clear editorial desire to manipulate and sow as much misinformation and disinformation as they can ferment.

The sub 5% Qanon Sovereign Sheriff vote has no where to collectively go that will give them representation and the right wing grifters behind Reality Check Radio mistake Chantelle Baker’s social media popularity on a global platform for domestic support.

It’s called the Billy TK Social Media Fallacy.

This far right voice concentrated now gives momentum to a feral political polarisation that could seed domestic terrorism.

We had all hoped Ardern stepping down would take some of the extremism of hate out of the election, but personal hurt of being alienated in their own home has engraved a cult like malice in the hearts of the antivax movement.

It’s not the system they seek to change or even policy implementation, they want to punish us for allowing them to be alienated in the first place.

This is a political revenge vendetta and they are motivated to influence whatever chaos they can. That is the stated aims of Voices for Freedom.

Buckle up, this election is going to get weird.

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