The Political Right punditry have been freaked out by the latest Polls showing a surge in Labour, this is very difficult for the punditry because they had already popped all the champagne bottles after sleep walking National to victory.
They are already claiming that this is just a leadership bump for Labour and they will still win.
Nonsense.
The surge is because the manner in which Jacinda was hounded out of Office sparked a backlash amongst swing voters against those types of tactics and because ultimately the electorate still want the transformational policies they voted for in 2017, not the rich prick policies of ACT and National.
There’s another reason to be sceptical of the Right winning in October because as the last election showed us, the mainstream polls overstated National and understated Labour support…
As Labour’s trend in the polls since mid-2020 was already downward, 45% looked plausible. But predictions based on the opinion polls were significantly wrong. Labour’s election result was 50%, National’s only 25.6%.
The polls in the final fortnight were overestimating National by an average of 5.8 percentage points. They were underestimating Labour by 3.7 points. The Green and Māori parties were also underestimated (1.1 and 0.7 points, respectively).
There were even bigger failures in polls showing Green candidate Chlöe Swarbrick running third in Auckland Central with about 25% of the vote. Instead, she got 35% and won the seat.
…the political momentum is with the Left and it is up to us as left wing supporters to demand Labour + Green + Māori Party do something transformative on economic justice rather than allow the middle class woke identity activists to drag us down a social justice ideological cul-de-sac where we end up championing land rights for gay whales.
The woke Wellington Twitter activists alienated Left wing voters, let’s not allow them to do that again.
The sudden snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory from the Right however is about to unleash a tsunami of frustrated hate from those who despised Jacinda and expect that to fuel a terrible radioactivity in what is already a toxic debate.
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These ongoing articles on poll results and the responses make me laugh. They are breathlessly announced like holy writ coming down from the Mount but will likely be meaningless in terms of what happens in October. But, depending on poster’s tribal allegiances, each will either be written off as an aberration or seized on as proof of a new dawn.
The reality is – most voters don’t follow sites like this, don’t get involved with political parties and discourses and will vote primarily on self-interest. Contrary to Martyn’s assertion – Ardern’s popularity dropping was largely not the result of some toxic campaign – it was because she didn’t deliver. I know many who voted Labour who were gutted at the lack of help for those at the bottom while the likes of banks and supermarkets have profited. And contrary to a lot of statements I’ve read on the blog – the harshest critics of Ardern that I’ve personally heard are not old white boomers (most I know were besotted with her including one staunch National voter who switched allegiance because of her) but younger and middle-aged women.
If Hipkins does do a reset of 3 waters, co-governance etc, how is that going to play out with the Maori MPs. There are many unknowns that could impact on an election result.
The question I’d ask of posters to this blog is – Do you really think a Labour/Greens/Maori Party – and whatever else or a National/Act/Maori Party coalition is going to make a major difference to the issues and inequality that exists? If a party that has had a clear majority can’t enact transformational change then what hope for a 3 way (or more) coalition? The only difference is that the first option will likely spend the first year having endless meetings trying to get a consensus whereas the latter would likely come up with some actions – be they good or bad -a lot sooner and be a bit more pragmatic.
Unfortunately, most of what happens in NZ is determined by the banks, large business and government agencies – especially the professional managerial class, certainly not by those at the coalface. And any proposals will then get sent out to external consultants to spend millions on, writing reports that will lead nowhere.
Like the US, NZ has 2 main parties that essentially are the same, keep business as usual while pursuing vanity projects and sometimes hidden agendas but their underlying way of running things is little different. Their social agendas can vary a bit but essentially the people at the bottom are still treated the same. All we get is tinkering around the edges. Which means that NZ is ripe for some new messiah like Trump to make an impact as people realise their votes at present are meaningless in terms of creating any change that will result in any measurable improvement in their personal circumstances. Maybe not this election but in the future unless there is significant change.
“hung” is that like Ze Beeg Sauzage?…
Little realized Labour would not win with him as leader, stood down and Adern emerged as a breath of fresh air. She came to the same conclusion and now we have Hipkins. Hopefully he can form a capable Cabinet, develop meaningful policies and achieve tangible results before October. Then I won’t have to protest vote Te Pati Maori.
Ardern was a liability to Labour.
There is a huge disconnect between the PMC and the everyday people that make up the electorate.
This is the real message here.
Labour acted very late. But they acted to stem a crisis that became undeniable.
WN, Just in time then?
Is it possible that Luxon’s belligerent dog whistle attack on co-governance and the Maori health authority was too much for NZ voters who, in large part, are not opposed to uplifting Maori communities and voices?
Is it also possible that we have moved beyond falling for that particular dog whistle and NActionals strategists have over-estimated it’s effectiveness on the NZ public? I hope so. That would restore my faith in humanity at least in NZ.
Before you become too optimistic regarding race relations in NZ/Ao check out the reaction to the suggestion of changing the name of Maxwell and of the plan for a settlers (only) day in Kimbolton.
they live among us – you only have to peruse a few social media sites to see that Labour haven’t caused division – they’ve exposed it.
Overheard in a supermarket queue: ‘The prime minister should have hair. Look at Jacinda’s beautiful hair.’
Just wait until the next round of deck chair rearranging is done, then Labour will be back on track for another glorious victory!
Jacinda was a celebrity politician who was good for the party and the country for a period of time when both was needed during the bleak time of covid .As her popularity dropped her and the party realized her time was up .I find it hard to believe the whole change over was not totally planned . I know nothing about the backroom of Labour but that is just my feeling and as an ex salesman know how to present an offer to the clients that looks good (in this case the client is the swing voter)
Trevor, so what if it was tentatively planned? If so, more kudos to Labour for pulling it off quietly.
Gillard’s govt was one of the most effective(in terms of getting stuff done) in recent memory. They may have had a shelf life, but they certainly weren’t zombies awaiting the coup de Gras.
Nickolas, relevance? This is NZ not AU
If Labour are serious about winning the election via their Cabinet reshuffle, their number 1 priority needs to be replacing Andrew Little as Minister of Health with Ayesha Verrall.
Andrew Little was a terrible choice for their role but they couldn’t elevate a first term MP into such an important role. That has since changed. Andrew Little was an unpopular leader of the Labour Party and the way he has disrespected medical professionals across NZ has been shocking to witness. He comes across as extremely arrogant and a bully. He has to go. Verrall has shown herself to be extremely competent without even a hint of arrogance. Labour simply can’t afford to press on with the worst Minister of Health I’ve ever witnessed. He makes Jonathan Coleman look like he was an excellent Minister of Health when he very obviously wasn’t.
Your wish has been granted Thinking Man!
All I’m saying is … Winston Peters.
Watch and learn.
Yeah we have already, for many decades now. He’s had his time.
My prediction is that Chris Vs. Chris is not going to fare any better for the political right of this country than Chris Vs. Jacinda.
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