Chippy coming in as Leader has had a dramatic and immediate impact in both Polls which shows you how successful the hate campaign against Jacinda was.
TVNZ:
TV3:
As TDB predicted, the manner in which Jacinda was burnt by the toxicity of the right has created a political backlash as the swing voter demographic punished that kind of politics.
As TDB predicted, the Greens are actually far weaker than they look and ACT is far stronger while the MÄori Party will end up being the kingmaker.
The Political Right were already popping the champagne corks believing they had already won.
What we are seeing is people want Labour to actually do what they said they would when we first elected them and Chippy is the next recipient of that trust.
Everyone saying it’s a leadership bump is nonsense – Labour went up 5 points in both polls, that’s not a bump, that’s jump – it shows how successful the toxicity campaign against Jacinda really was!
Voters still want what Labour promised in 2017!
This is not going to be the landslide victory to National and ACT that the Right have been crowing about. This realisation is going to trigger a desperate and angry response from the big money part of town who are funding the Right with millions in donations.
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Throw a dead cat from the 9th floor and it bounces.
Some points:
1). Just shows how toxic Ardern had become.
2). Hipkins has the same problem Ardern had – performance. This bounce will recede quickly if the incompetence continues.
3). There is still the Maori caucus issue to navigate. If the MP climb to 5% and threaten a clean sweep watch for movement from Mahuta and Jackson.
4). We are at the start of significant and likely sustained stagflation. The same sheeple that think Hipkins saved them during CovidCult will be looking for someone to blame when they canāt afford a trip to the GC in 2023.
I wouldnāt pop the champagne corks yet. Geoffrey Palmer had a larger bounce when Lange went and we know how that election went.
National/Act are still a reasonable bet.
Ahh Frank every cloud has a silver lining mentality, now roll over and tickle MickeyBoyles Tummy.
Funny thing is Frank that the āincompetenceā label is getting thrown around when itās not necessarily reflected in traditional metrics like GDP. Heartless numbers like economic growth , the likes of Nat/Act usually get all excited over, have not feared that badly at all. Like Nat/Act voters in the main really care about homelessness and child poverty? If Chippy even appears to be more frugal with spend Seymour and Luxon will have even less to hang their hat on. They donāt have any policies that really target suffering (which not suggesting Labour have made sufficient headway with the measures they have taken)
Labour seem to be hopeless and comms on big issues explaining āthe whyā but also pointing out that SOME of National and Acts criticisms are actually bollocks and just become accepted as fact. Certain stakeholders in the primary sector bleating about things they are not actually paying for being a classic example.
That should be āhopeless at commsā ironically
You know new leaders always get a bump. Settle down lad.
You can change the lipstick but it’s still a pig.
I do hope Chippy will keep NACT out though. I don’t dislike him, yet.
New leaders get poll bumps from excitement, even Cunliffe got labour a leadership bump, new leaders who make bold decisions to differentiate themselves from their predecessor and to excite the public sustain that bounce.
If Hipkins can drop the unpopular policies, drop the woke shit that loses voters, announce some popular policies and be seen as the trustful guy whose focused soley on nzers living standards and the economy, labour has a real shot at this year’s election. It’s an mmp election after all and they are always close.
Nationals biggest stick to hit labour with is culture war shit because labours social policies are deeply unpopular, whereas national and acts economic policies are deeply unpopular. If national is able to fight the election on culture war issues national will win, if national has no culture war stick to hit labour with and the election is fought on policy , labour will win.
A new leader before an election is not a death knell, John Major, Paul Keating, Julia Gillard, Pierre Trudeau, Malcolm Turnbull, Scott Morrison, Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Boris Johnson all prove that wrong and Bill English won the popular vote in 2017 winning more votes that election than Key got in 2008 and people always forget Gordon Brown was initially extremely popular until the GFC, had he held a snap election in 2007 rather than holding on til 2010 he would have won more seats than Blair in 2005.
Its gonna be a long year and anyone can win.
One swallow doesn’t make a summer! Just saying.
No shock whatsoever. Dead cat bounce
Labour will be back to pre Hipkins levels before Easter. And far more splinteredā¦
Are you in Hawaii or Te Puke today Chris?
Lower Hutt
So, San Francisco then…
FFS, its called a honeymoon period.
A newby with zero portfolio experience whatsoever up against a seasoned multi portfolio ‘go to’ guy with 15 years experience. That’s the choice!!
No one in their right mind, unless seriously deluded, is going to go for Mr. Zero. That’s got train-wreck written all over it!!
Any clear thinking astute business manager worth their salt would never pick option 1 given the choice.
Luxon will have rings run around him come the debates. There’s nothing behind the facade….nothing!
Popcorn anyone!
Yes the debates should be great fun Grant! I’m hoping Chippy has a secret ruthless side that he’ll bring out and slice cluster fuxon off at the knees, with an added “na na loser, property portfolios don’t count”. I’d buy that cup, jff š
I’ve heard “a national government will actually get things done”. I have heard that over and over because that is all he’s got. He has no idea how to get things done in Wellington. You know who does know? Chippy i.e. Prime Minister Chippy. (Gotta love Andrea Vance’s: Chippy v please call me Christopher.) Game on boys and girls.
Grant you reckon the Nude Nut could bite the dust in the Election Debates ?
The problem with your analysis Grant is that the man with 15yrs experience has never performed (let’s exclude CovidCult given conjecture).
The state of our schools, universities and polytechs should be a guide as to a minister’s ability. This doesn’t bode well for Hipkins as these have all gone significantly backwards in the last 5 years. While not solely his fault he was still the minister therefore sheets a lot of the blame.
The cautionary tale of Geoffrey Palmer should be first and foremost in most people’s minds. Once the Auckland emergency subsides then Hipkins will need to fix what Ardern broke while keeping onside the progressive left.
Good luck with that.
schools were run down under Key – Labour picked up a mess of underfunding in both Education and Health and were forced to pump funding into both these systems. Blaming Labour for the state of education is like blaming ice on the penguins – both stupid and wrong
Frank stupid AND wrong?
Never!
The trouble with the progressive left is that there are two distinct groups who consider themselves to be the progressive left and “woke” identity politics is incompatible with social democracy so Hipkins will have to choose between them. And even though National did most of the damage that Labour are trying (not very hard) to fix it’s the incumbent who gets the blame.
National meanwhile has appointed a generic manager, like that last chunky bald guy in a suit whatever his name was. Elections in this country are usually decided by people who know very little voting for the best looking candidate who says a couple of things that they like the sound of – but will the proles forget the failings of the previous 6 years and vote for Chippy or will the generic manager do and say nothing much and not scare away too many lukewarm new National voters?
Once people start seeing the same cold, dead-eyed stare I can’t unsee whenever Hipkins is on screen, they’ll bail.
I think that you’re getting confused with Key!
Well they’ve witnessed a possum in the headlights with Luxon and a car crash with Collins, so I guess a dead eyed stare wins.
A ruthless steely gaze. I wanna see the Chipsters dark side, come debating time
The bounce might help the Greens in a strange way. The low and slipping Green polling, might force a leadership change. Other was they are just Hipkins Hutt valley hound.
Looking at the first few comments here leads me to two possible conclusions; either the comments section here is dominated by right-wingers, or the left is desperate for the NatACTs to win in October, presumably to punish Labour for not being transformative enough.
I share the frustration with Labour’s lack of delivery on urgent issues like eradicating poverty, including a just transition to zero carbon emissions, and housing the homeless. Having spent half of 2020 effectively homeless, that last one hits particularly close to home (no pun intended).
But let’s be honest, none of this will improve under a National government. Especially one propped up by a frankenstein version of ACT, whose architects have taken its neo-liberal propertarian corpse, and stiched on rhetoric – and thus voters – from the Conservatives and the sort of right wingers who have voted for pseudo-centre parties like United Future and NZ First.
If Labour forms a third term government, they will be doing it with far fewer seats. Securing a majority in the house will require them to actually listen to the Greens, and most likely Te PÄti MÄori, who show no signs this time of collaborating with ACT. This is good news for the left!
Our best chance of getting what we want in the next election, as usual is to shore up support for parties other than Labour, who won’t work with the NatACTs.
Oh and BTW, the surge in Labour’s fortunes after Jacinda became leader was dismissed as a bump. Sometimes a bump is all you need to get out of a rut š
Like Little before her, Jacinda knew that she needed to step down to save her party.
Why ever she stepped down, it was the correct move for our country imo
Only one,jeronimo,fair play.
Grant you reckon the Nude Nut could bite the dust in the Election Debates ?
Chippy gets a bounce, seems a nice guy, very well managed transfer of PM to him.
Looks like extra Labour votes are coming from NZ first and Greens mainly.
Same outfit though so letās see what the electorate think of 3 waters and co governance and if Hipkins can defuse Labours self made dirty bomb.
A closer race means Nats might have to campaign on policy.
3 Waters is looking like a sure winner in Auckland around about now!!!
The well has run dry on this cause for Mahuta and Willie has lost his merger. The people have spoken.
The usual suspectsāpolitical illiterates and Natzo loversāhave their say aboveā¦so I will have mineā¦this country is facing an increasing shitstorm on various fronts. IMO a whole lot of people have to re-engage in political and practical community affairs as opposed to being passive spectators that may or may not be arsed voting predominantly middle and upper class people into the bourgeois Parliament every three years.
Jeez Frankus and Krautenstein, it is just a couple of bollocks polls, donāt brick yourselves yet.
Re the General Election, it will be close as usual under MMP, but I am going for a Labour/Green/MÄori resultāwith a powerful TPM factor. Debbie has made it clear that they want all MÄori electorates to be won by TPM.
The ram raids appear to be on the decline. We’ll done Labour and NZ police.
Don’t hear the right whinging much on this the past few weeks.
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