2023: The One To Lose
BRYCE EDWARDS, in this morning’s (10/3/22) edition of his excellent NZ Politics Daily, writes:
“There is still a chance that the Government will back down on Three Waters. If opinion polls continue to narrow between the left and right blocs, then Jacinda Ardern will start to look at what areas of the Government reform programme are eroding public confidence. Three Waters, or at least the co-governance model, is likely to be identified as a roadblock to re-election in 2023.”
But, a back-down on Three Waters could only eventuate following a direct and successful attack upon the largest and most powerful faction in the Labour Caucus – the Māori Caucus. Given the political beliefs of most of Labour’s non-Māori caucus members, however, is such an attack even conceivable? It would represent not only a rejection of the orthodox interpretation of te Tiriti o Waitangi, along with the co-governance model it is said to mandate, but also the wholesale repudiation of the only political principles the current generation of Labour MPs take seriously.
Now the cynics might chuckle and point to the number of sitting MPs who stand to lose their seats if Labour’s fast-falling level of electoral support is not arrested. Having just entered Parliament, are these politicians really prepared to be swept out of it on the highly contentious proposition that co-governance really is the wave of the future?
Isn’t it more likely that these MPs will suddenly discover that co-governance formed no part of Labour’s 2020 Election Manifesto? Or, that co-governance is full of constitutional fish-hooks that the likes of Nanaia Mahuta and Willie Jackson have not been entirely up-front about? Some may even decide to read He Puapua from start to finish, and end up wondering how the Labour Cabinet could just wave it through.
On the other hand, nobody has ever gone broke betting on the propensity of white liberals to fold like tents when subjected to an uncompromising assault by people of colour. Are Labour’s current crop of luvvies really tough enough to face down the bitter accusations of racism and colonialist betrayal which would undoubtedly be hurled at them by the Māori Caucus’s staunchest spokespeople?
Is Jacinda?
And are the Non-Māori majority of the Labour Caucus really willing to call the Māori Caucus’s bluff if it threatens to refuse the Whip? Could the Labour leadership be sure of holding on to at least three or four of Willie Jackson’s team in the event of a walkout? (Always assuming that the Greens do not walk away from their agreement with the Labour Government in solidarity with its Māori members.)
It is very hard to see how scrapping co-governance and provoking a walkout of Labour’s Māori caucus could happen without provoking a snap election. With the Greens and the Māori Party tearing into Labour’s left-flank, it is even harder to see any other outcome apart from a resounding National/Act victory. Which would, of course, mean the scrapping of Three Waters and co-governance.
Better, perhaps, to go down with the Tino Rangatiratanga flag flying? Paradoxically, going to the country on a platform of constitutional and cultural transformation – and getting thrashed – could well be the best way of keeping Labour and the Greens in the long-term political game.
Because, one thing is for certain: the genie of co-governance is well and truly out of its bottle and it is doubtful whether the New Zealand state any longer possesses either the strength or the will to stuff it back in. Were a right-wing government foolish enough to try, the resulting convulsions in the body politic would make the recent dyspepsia manifested in Parliament Grounds look like a delegation of Plunket mums.
This time the wretched refuse of the colonial capitalist economy would not attract the scorn of middle-class Pakeha social-liberals. This time they would be pitching their tents right alongside them. This time the New Zealand ensign flying alongside the Tino Rangatiratanga flag would not be at all confusing. This time it would be: “One flag for tauiwi; one flag for tangata whenua; and te Tiriti over all.” This time Labour and the Greens would not be scorning the occupation. This time they’d be taking the demands of the protesters directly to the floor of the House of Representatives. This time they would not be speaking for the state. This time they would be speaking for the future.
There was a time – not so very long ago – when Bryce Edwards’ speculation about Labour stepping away from Three Waters and co-governance would have represented nothing more nor less than the conventional wisdom. But, times have changed. Aotearoa-New Zealand faces unprecedented challenges, and it is becoming clearer with every passing year that our current constitutional arrangements are unlikely to prove equal to the task of meeting them.
As Bryce himself notes:
“The alternative is that the Government gets out and actually sells the reforms to the public. This is what has been sorely lacking (beyond the infamous [Three Waters] propaganda ad campaign). But that will require more than disparaging co-governance critics whose arguments are resonating widely with the public.”
Indeed it will. And, if Labour has retained even a shred of historical consciousness, it will go the electorate with more than just Three Waters on the bill-of-sale. It should present the voters with a bold and radical vision of their country’s future. A future founded on a political economy of equity and justice. A future in which everyone can win, and where losing isn’t predetermined by the colour of your skin. Labour and the Greens will lose, naturally. But, with the economy tanking, and the international situation going from bad to worse, the 2023 General Election looks more-and-more like the election the parties of the future need to lose.
The vital objective should be to win the votes of the young. The challenges that loom will be theirs to meet and overcome. Above all, Labour should not allow itself to be spooked by a solidification of frightened conservatism among the over-60s. Let the dead bury their dead.
The trick, in these circumstances, is to make sure that you leave office with a bang – not a whimper. With great things still left to do. In the immortal words of Scarlet O’Hara inGone With The Wind: “Tomorrow is another day.”
Let the Right inherit the whirlwind that’s coming.
“A future in which everyone can win, and where losing isn’t predetermined by the colour of your skin”
And their proposed solution is to institutionalise governance on the basis of race, to make ethnicity a political category?
Of course there’s zero chance of getting the people to go along with that mad idea, an idea so bad you have to wonder about the sanity of anyone supporting it.
Re Three Waters He Puapua
I don’t know why everyone is getting so excited about this Three Waters, we have big problems with our water quality here in NZ. Local Councils don’t have the resources to fix the water quality problems and often squander the money they do have on other Pet Projects.
Not a big deal as far as I am concerned.
Ngungukai Govt wants to give 50% to 11% of the population. There are no guarantees that ownership of the water, an increasingly valuable global commodity, won’t then be sold off- shore.
I agree Ngungukai. It was broken and needed fixing. The howling from the right ad nausea is proof that this is a winner. And better still it’s still owned by the state and not privatized like National did with the power cos even after a referendum held was corruptly ignored by Key.
We don’t have a big problem though Ngungukai, despite the propaganda you’ve seen: second equal highest standard of drinking water in the world.
The “fourth waters” (rivers, lakes, seas and ground water) are outside the purview of these changes if that’s what you’re concerned about. Regardless, is this the best way to address such concerns as there are? What’s the point of giving iwi 50% control of urban waste, drinking and storm water. Both of those questions remain unanswered and the suspicion grows that this is not really about water at all.
Tell that to the rabbid Pakeha who have bloody cheek to say we are stealing the water, this is the water they said nobody owns cause you can’t own the water it belongs to all of us. Rein in the water bottling by foreign countries now since the council want control put up or shut up.
Council have sold of vaste quantities of water in the Bay of Plenty and Canterbury to OFF Shore Chinese Bottling Companies for the cost of the Resource Consent.
Chinese Bottlers have the rights to the Aquifiers at the Old Sheep & Beef Freezing Works at Belfast Christchurch and have established a new Export Bottling Plant. In Whakatane they have bought the Bottling Plant at Otakiri Spring Waters near Edgecumbe which draws water out of the Aquifier under the Rangtakei Plains. The Otakiri Springs was New Zealand’s biggest Water Bottling Plant 25 years ago, not sure how big it is now and how much water it is drawing off a day,
It’s not the water, it’s the infrastructure that Mahuta wants to control thereby awarding her cronies an effective monopoly through which they can extract revenue and hide behind an opaque and deliberately complex management structure so the poor rate payers cannot influence decisions or force change.
People didn’t seem to care about the infrastructure when joh keys sold our power companies to bring down power costs. He literally destroyed NZ post then sold shares in Air NZ but in NZ you get a knighthood for that.
Just like Sir Nichael Fay Richwhite, Sir Ron Brierly, Sir John Key, Sir Bill English shall I go on all involved in the sale of State (taxpayers) Assets for the good of the Country.
That’s just not true – the bulk of water supplied is high quality and well managed. We don’t need this asset grab.
We have serious laws already against pollution and everyone is aware of them. Giving a group of racists control of water is bad.
What’s wrong with Auckland’s water?
Drinking it OK. Beaches are mostly pretty good. Rivers could be worse.
Considering it is a big city and all..
Jeez compared to some of the beaches and rivers I’ve seen around the world… Pristine!
A good blogpost on 3 waters is here: http://karldufresne.blogspot.com/
“ Throughout this exercise, a persistent issue has been lack of transparency. At every step along the way, the government has seemed determined to (pardon the pun) muddy the waters.
A good example is the diagram purporting to show how the governance of Three Waters will work, which is a triumph of obfuscation. I defy anyone to make sense of it. There has to be a reason why it’s so convoluted, and I believe that reason is to disguise where true power and control will reside.
The public still has no idea who came up with the idea of four regional “water service entities” – whose territories just happened to be aligned with tribal boundaries – or what the rationale was. That part of the exercise appears to have taken place out of the public view. It emerged fully formed, without public consultation.
In place of transparency, the government has tried hyperbole, disinformation and scaremongering – witness the infantile and dishonest “public information and education campaign” put together by advertising agency FCB New Zealand (to its everlasting shame) at a cost to the taxpayer of $4 million. The aim was to frighten New Zealanders into thinking our water infrastructure is in a parlous state and thus soften us up for the hijacking of council-owned assets and the removal of democratic accountability mechanisms.”
A right wing blogger you follow, someone whom dismisses maoridom and socialist views and you label it a good blogpost? It’s one view, one that you “like”.
Once again you fall under the right wing spell of Neoliberalism, if something is broke( water infrastructure) sell it to the highest bidder.
A better article can be seen here …note ” the public need to know the truth about water”
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK2110/S00549/local-leaders-welcome-3-waters-decision.htm
Not addressing the issues in the quote, I see, just trying to cancel the author because you don’t like them?
Put my mind at ease on the points he raises.
No it’s all good but as I pointed out it’s a right wing narrative, what the fuck do you think he was going to say? “The aim was to ease New Zealanders minds”
Doesn’t alter my mind that his post sits better on Whaleoil and even more so it’s bias, because you support it.
“I am pleased the Government has stepped up and made this decision as we owe residents and ratepayers the truth – and the truth is, without reform, the Council does not have the resources or borrowing capacity to deliver the 3 Waters to an acceptable standard. The cost of doing so is in the billions”
I now you don’t do the truth, your posts are all proof of that.
So no defense of the media misinformation campaign and non consultation with the public before the scheme was forced on us- after lying and saying it wouldn’t be?
Just more attempted messenger cancellation.
As expected.
It’s because the 3 waters dog is indefensible.
“So no defense of the media misinformation campaign.”
Any evidence of this or is this another of your conspiracy theories as expected? Seems that if the media say something you disagree with it is misinformation or left wing. You are so fucking predictable, if you were a racehorse you’d be a win bet!
I know you aren’t genuine bert but read some issues in this article in case you actually have been living under a rock:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/government-three-waters-advertising-campaign-is-irresponsible-misleading-critics/TWGKM7AEO2NPCPIEVPQ57ZOCLI/
Second highest drinking water quality in the western world by the way.
Hmm Chris, I thought co-governance could only end in a fight? Or are you saying Labour needs to set up as the new Kingitanga and prepare the ground for future conflict?
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/02/04/something-entirely-different-why-co-governance-is-a-very-bad-idea/
I do not resile from one word of my earlier posting s y d. What I do say, however, is that I am more convinced than ever – especially following the recent occupation of Parliament Grounds and the violence surrounding its suppression – that the NZ State is incapable of any longer defending the colonial constitution.
If NZ is to avoid a descent into terrorism and/or civil war, then constitutional change is a necessity. The above post merely argues that Labour would be wise to make a virtue of that necessity.
Yes colonizers you have everything yet you always want more never satisfied and most of you are not Maori so have no idea wat it feels like to be treated like a second calls citizen. Assimilation is your game and many of you have no shame but you are quick to blame. We have proprietary rights but many of you don’t care cause you are greedy, selfish and don’t want to hear you just want more and more than your fair share.
Maori are colonists.
Rmeber when Auckland had water shortages a 2 or 3 years ago?
Auckland wanted more water from the Waikato. Tainui said no.
Pretty selfish I thought. Was that selfish of them?
There were headlines of Tainui asking for $1 Billion for the water.. Was that not greedy?
I’ll post links if I can find them…
Here you are, $20million a day, so we can have water to drink.
Thankyou for the offer, not greedy or selfish people.
Nz herald
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-asked-to-pay-for-water-from-waikato-river/E2ZYIZ6BMUGZA5XXVXXNN7TULE/
Ngai Tahu – biggest business in the South Island.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/kahu/the-big-read-iwi-build-a-6b-empire-of-assests/QJCETP6DMUWGMWALHUNPAPMTLQ/
Good on them, success.
But please don’t lie to us low wage workers just trying to educate our kids about how hard done by Maori are nowadays.
Maybe you are, but jeez, look around. Who drove the white Bentley convertible to day care? Oh, Iwi leader…
Just give up the spin BS.
Do you see people with very, very easy jobs on great pay?
Things have changed.
Alan M
You have such a chip on your shoulder. It probably is a smaller one than Maori rightly have. If pakeha can work with Maori so that the chips are turned into mulch and
help to grow some solid healthy tane mahutas. How can you advance yourself without whinging too much is the task. Whinging is fair enough and a bit is healthy I think, but then get over it and get on eh.
But many of the councils have no money and who do they put their hand out to Shona
So they look to bailouts from the government, fucking good plan Shona!
Im one of Chris’ buried dead, an over 60 like him. For the life left in me there is no way that a constitutional path that leads to power sharing with a small minority will be accepted by the majority, whatever their age. It is a recipe for sectarian conflict. And for the death of Labour if they proceed.
What I think is going on is that the current socio economic system has institutionised failure / disadvantage of tangata whenua. Attempts to change this have all failed. He Puapua is merely the latest, the end result will only be a Maori aristocracy fighting to hold their gains from their own people. Not exactly a recipe for economic or social emancipation.
Then theres the massive immigrant population of the last thirty years who came expecting democracy, how will they vote?
Chris may be right that constitutionally we are well on this path, lead by public servants, judges, lawyers, advocates etc. That wont make it stick, only popular mandate will. To think otherwise invites conflict.
You think Ardern is going to work for the UN ? Lol she’s not Helen Clark. She’s a coms expert.
She’ll go private sector, move to the states in the states where they love her and where all her celeb and political and media mates are and start up a PR consultancy firm and make mega, mega bucks she’ll make so much cash she’ll make John Key look like a peseant.
Private sector for sure. If she loses next year she’ll only be 43 if she wins she’ll only be 45-46 when she retires from parliament.
She’s not going to the UN. That’s Helen Clarks dream. It’s a useless ineffectual organization and it’s a waste of time trying to climb the UN.
The Money is in consultancy,coms pr for her celeb mates, for centerist political parties around the world, for green wash for corporations.
She’s not going to stay in politics after this, she’ll leave NZ and never look back like any sane kiwi should do.
Maybe after a decade of private sector she’ll go run the WTO for 5 years but UN ? No way Jose
Chris, I agree that your proposal is strategically correct for future Labour. But here is the thing that I cant reconcile:
Lets say in 20 yrs time 80% of the population is non Maori, yadda, yadda intermarriage, liberal ideas taught at school, growing Maori population. What you’re saying is that the 80 % or even 70% if we take polynesians out. Are going to say, I believe we should vote against democracy and my own self interest to run our country as a divided ethno state.
I can see how views can change especially with decent consultation but human nature is what it is. Those with power will fight to keep it especially if you consider the background of our now large economic debt, a world in a financial meltdown that is picked to last 7 – 10 years and our crumbling infrastructure and services. Add on top of that the horrific way in which this government has thrown money at Maori with no clear result (Not inferring the throwing of the money is wrong but we all know it hasnt trickled down) and I think that many of those middle class marxists currently supporting the left will migrate right out of self interest.
Things really need to change but co-governance isnt the answer. As I see it, NZ can only get worse across all or most measures. National will likely win in 2023 and will be in for between 10 and 20 years, the country will continue its decline and division until things implode and substantial change is forced upon it.
Chris, I agree that your proposal is strategically correct for future Labour. But here is the thing that I cant reconcile:
Lets say in 20 yrs time 80% of the population is non Maori, yadda, yadda intermarriage, liberal ideas taught at school, growing Maori population. What you’re saying is that the 80 % or even 70% if we take polynesians out. Are going to say, I believe we should vote against democracy and my own self interest to run our country as a divided ethno state.
I can see how views can change especially with decent consultation but human nature is what it is. Those with power will fight to keep it especially if you consider the background of our now large economic debt, a world in a financial meltdown that is picked to last 7 – 10 years and our crumbling infrastructure and services. Add on top of that the horrific way in which this government has thrown money at Maori with no clear result (Not inferring the throwing of the money is wrong but we all know it hasnt trickled down) and I think that many of those middle class marxists currently supporting the left will migrate right out of self interest.
Things really need to change but co-governance isnt the answer. As I see it, NZ can only get worse across all or most measures. National will likely win in 2023 and will be in for between 10 and 20 years, the country will continue its decline and division until things implode and substantial change is forced upon it.
It’s like a lottery. What are the odds? Are they stacked for or against the majority/common good?
Expanding the breeding Program while still in Office, shit that will get all the haters fired up again wont it ?
How dare she have another baby while in Office and running the Country.
I wonder if I will go nuts soon or be able to carry on for a few years until I die, either semi-naturally or otherwise. I go away from discussing the faults in iour wonderful modern system and society and seek a break and some pleasure in a healthy way. I was looking for the acapella group The Real singing Water and got this series of items on sick people fighting a USA firm selling sick-making water. A cautionary tale.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvo5SS2CVmI
Here is Water by The Real Group. Who make a great sound and image. We are all in this thing together around the world. Don’t you love these people and also our own with ideals and hope and practical measures to save and advance us all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4z-wAa2iV4
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Real_Group
The Real Group is an a cappella group from Sweden. Members are Emma Nilsdotter, Lisa Östergren, Anders Edenroth, Anton Forsberg and Jānis Strazdiņš. The group’s members compose and arrange most of their songs. They sing in English and Swedish and cite American vocalist Bobby McFerrin as an inspiration.