TVNZ finally release their last poll for the year and it points towards a hard right National/ACT Government implementing ankle bracelets on children, sacking 14 000 state service workers while slashing billions in welfare and education spending.
It will be a cluster fuck of conflict policies all looking to punish someone and my cynical black splinter of heart can’t wait. The carnage these right wing wankers will cause will shock the NZ electorate into a state of 3 year civil disobedience.
I. Can’t. Wait.
There are of course political winners and losers.
WINNERS:
Labour – at 33% after all the shit that has been thrown at them, Labour’s extraordinary polling is still standing up! There is a large chunk of the electorate who believe in what Labour did to protect us from Covid, who see our inflation is low compared to the rest of the planet and who see our economy is doing better comparatively as well. These voters are bonded to Labour and they will go down with the ship. I thought Labour might slip into the 20s, that they still have 3 in front of them is remarkable.
ACT – David Seymour’s on going strength and the fact ACT are in double digits consistently is the true mark of how polarised this country has become politically.
When I warned Woke Identity Politics activists in 2018 to stop attacking Free Speech by cancelling Don Brash, gender critical feminists and Crypto-fascists Southern/Molyneux, I was doing so from a perspective that the woke identity politics activists had no comprehension of the political backlash they could inspire by waking the dormant political fault line of ACT. In early 2018 ACT polled .7%. After the woke identity politics activists attacked free speech, ACT soared in popularity and are now polling 12%! From .7% in the space of 4 years to 12% represents the greatest polarisation of NZ Politics ever!
Can the woke identity politic fuckwits please stop giving the far right culture war ammunition?
Winston – As TDB has been warning all year, at 4% NZF is back! if ACT don’t attack him and rule out working with any Government he is part of, Winston will be back in Parliament.
LOSERS:
Jacinda – Her own brand has been undermined by neo-kindness, the tilted head and concerned nod routine when people are hurting triggers them, it doesn’t calm them down. She is being failed by a Cabinet who are tired and are making mistakes like 3 Waters entrenchment and those mistakes are being seized upon by the Opposition as evidence of malfeasance rather than tired individuals dropping the ball. To save Jacinda, the Cabinet have to step up.
Greens – Stalling at 9%, if Winston is back, the Greens are meaningless and politically irrelevant.
National – It’s like National and Labour are playing rugby with the Labour team all using crutches and National are only ahead by 4 points. They are hopeless.
PREDICTIONS:
In 2016 I helped then Chief of Staff Matt McCarten put together the Labour election strategy.
It was simple, use MMP to cut National’s support Parties so NZ First would choose Labour.
We did that by standing a strong public service candidate like Greg O’Connor in Ohariu against Peter Dunne to knock him out of the race and by bringing Willie Jackson and urban Māori away from the Māori Party.
That cut National’s support Parties and made it impossible for National to gain a majority.
With the 2023 election now being so close, Labour must again look to using MMP dynamics strategically and tactically to ensure they can win.
To that end, Jacinda should consider using the same tactic that National and ACT do in Epsom and have electorate coffee dates to let Labour voters know who to electorate vote to maximise the MMP dynamics for a win in 2023.
Waiariki – If the Māori Party gain more electorate seats than party vote, they generate an MMP overhang that makes it far more difficult for the Right to win a Parliamentary majority. Retaining Waiariki and picking up two more electorate seats would be essential for this.
Tāmaki Makaurau – Peeni Henry has already intimated he would prefer to be on the list than run in this electorate, John Tamihere would clean up if Jacinda had a coffee with him.
Te Tai Hauāuru – It is tradition for the Speaker to step down from an electorate and be on the list only, Adrian Rurawhe has yet to make that decision, but if he did, a coffee between Jacinda and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer would win it for her, which if taken alongside Wairiki and Tāmaki Makaurau would give the Māori Party 3 electorate seats and they are likely to win sub 3% Party vote thus creating an overhang.
Ilam – This is where it gets interesting. Gerry has stepped down from the electorate (he is fancying his chances as Speaker in the next Parliament) so if Jacinda had a coffee with Raf Manji from TOP and directed Labour voters to electorate vote him and he wins, he would also bring in MPs using the coat tail dynamic meaning TOP wouldn’t have to get over the 5% threshold.
At this stage a Labour/Green/Māori Party/TOP Government is the only chance for the political progress on the big economic issues we need.
A National/ACT Government would be the most right wing since Roger Douglas while NZ First’s inclusion would just be another 3 years of hand breaks for Labour.
It’s time to use MMP strategically using the very tactics National and ACT have used for decades in Epsom.
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An observation;
Ardern looks, sounds and acts tired and down in the dumps. Is she capable and able to lead Labour over the election year? Does she want to?
Her vitality has been sucked right out of her.
Her competence over the entrenchment clause has been questioned and one senses a melancholic malaise in her when needing to explain any unsavoury details. Having to haul Jackson back from his altercation with Jack Tame again shows she does not like to do the school ma leadership when the class gets unruly.
The prediction than becomes; Can Labour find another leader to replace Ardern? Labour currently is Ardern and Ardern is Labour.
Bet Labour would like a Swarbrick in their team right now. Transfer window is open to Swarbrick as she has no future leading the Greens or the Greens having any meaningful and active involvement in a Labreen opposition. If political parties where in the transfer market like the Premier League’ Swarbrick would be worth at least $50M.
With Swarbrick at the helm, Labour could be as strong as they were under the early Ardern leadership years. Swarbrick is already on the preferred PM poll rating list. She is wasted in the Greens.
Very pertinent observation, Gerrit.
The PM has only a few members worthy of being in Cabinet. The majority of Cabinet have let her down and she ‘carries the can’ for those not up to it. There are few outside of Cabinet that may be up to the task but she can only work with what she has got in the caucus, sadly.
And poor that many are, person-for-person, they rub rings around the Nat caucus ( as she does around Luxon, specially at QT!).
“The majority of Cabinet have let her down …………..”
As has the senior ranks in the PS that HER, and most of HER Munsters continue to have ‘complete faith in,
It’s almost a masochistic phenomenon, faith-based and religious in nature – but so be it. There’ll be learnings in that space, going forward (on reflection after the next election). Learnings that’ll lead to hopey hopey changey changey stuff.
The sooner the better ‘cos the natives are getting restless
Still a year to go, lots of water to flow under the bridge until then.
Both Luxon and Ardern are equally problematic. I still believe that unless Luxon goes the Nats wont win but with the runaway train of 3 waters and an election year recession, plummeting house prices and soon to be rising unemployment – can Labour possibly win?
• Labour Party & Caucus largely “DUN IT” to themselves by not running a radical “for the many not the few” programme of re-nationalising power generation and supply etc.and retiring Rogernomics–they squandered a one off MMP majority.
• Politics does not begin and end with Parliament, as the occupation in Wellington illustrated. And as private sector unionists winning good pay rises via strike action shows, and as Iwi action deep in the Māori world shows. The right have scabbed the venerable left tactic of public activism–which is good because it gets the weirdos out in public view.
• Natzo/ACT as per Trumpism highlight legitimate working class grievances–but with absolutely no intention of doing anything practical about them. ACT policy and Natzo weekly statements (no actual policy so far) make it quite clear how regressive they would be in office.
• The attempts at rapprochement between left and right pundits has not helped. The right play for keeps, they are having you on Martyn.
It is difficult to make any sense of the 2022 political scene without some degree of class understanding and analysis. The privately owned media channels hammer the right wing capitalist message, RNZ hammers the rights messaging also as became very apparent during the COVID lockdowns. My take is if new gens can be widely politicised and activated these polls will not stand in reality. Every boomer funeral diminishes reaction in this country.
lol – the neo-cons would be drowning in their own vomit and digging up the AR-15’s if the socialists tried anything radical – look at the 3 waters and health reforms – re-nationalizing shit would have had us in a CIA forced recession before you could blink – the left is shackled by capitalism’s grip on the real levers of power aka capital. just look at the spiteful and nasty shit that happened in Venezuela with the capitalists starving out their own people to make a point. It has to be ground up not top down. The far right and far left are closer to each other on the horseshoe than the capitalist neo-cons would have you believe. yes – capitalists and socialists are the problem – lets get some communo-anarchy going. lol – this rave was bought to you by the opt out co-op and Don’t GAF squad. tell the govt. to eff off and mind it’s own business.
Elections are lost not won.
National + Act + NZ First is 53% on this poll. In MMP terms that is a kicking. Te Reo would appear quite keen on having Winston on board as Foreign Minister and there should be a trembling duck hiding in a basement in Dublin on the mere thought.
The cracks are widening and very clear attacks on both Jackson and Mahuta won’t go down well with the Maori caucus. It is becoming clear there is a widening occurring here between the moderates such as Hipkins and the extremes such as Mahuta and Jackson. Michael Wood will be starting to run the numbers and Robertson will be having internal debates about when to use the ice pick.
Somehow Ardern has made it through to Christmas (no job offers via the UN/WEF obviously) however she is now damaged goods and at 29% more of a weight around Labour than a help. The irony of course is that she has morphed into a leftwing Trump and suffers from the same problems in that for every disciple there is 1.5 people that can’t fucking stand her.
A male/female split would be fascinating as I can’t see Labour having anything more than 22/23% of the male vote.
The biggest winner is Te Reo (c’mon Bomber just admit it) given his performance (or lack there of) and the bump in his favorability.
National/ACT/NZ First would be very interesting indeed given that Winston can’t stand Rimmer but it would only happen if the election night results exactly match this poll which is unlikely.
A political myth. They are competing for the same vote share that it all – disgruntled past National voters such as me. I’m told by those in the know off camera they get on just fine.
Frank the Tank. The WEF is coming under more public scrutiny, and its intrusion into New Zealand politics is to some extent an unknown, but socially divisive tactics as seen in identity politics practices, hidden agendas, nepotism, attacks upon our European cultural heritage by Creative New Zealand, the increasing chasm between haves and have- nots, and book burning, suggest a fairly radical change may be needed in the political arena. I understand that one of their goals is no private home ownership at all, and successive New Zealand governments’ unbelievable inertia here, fits the WEF agenda. The watering-down of anti free speech attacks is a significant plus.
Yep.
Start digging and the links between most Western Governments and the WEF stated goals become apparent.
Labeen too little, too late. Not looking forward to Natz and ACT but was not looking forward to the 3 Waters, Co Governance that isn’t really co-governance, freedom of speech that is now hate speech, more benefits for those who are not contributing to society like crims while victims are ignored, putting woke committees everywhere who are siphoning off all the money to their mates, more mass immigration of people who are already in poverty when a family is coming into NZ on at $43k wage (soon to be a cash wage at some local dairy or construction site) and dropping wages even further while requiring social services like housing, health care, super and education. (Natz will do the same but at least don’t virtue signal while they do it).
Final straw is putting up interest rates when we already have some of the highest interest rates in the world (and highest bank profits) with increasingly the lowest wages. While pretending for decades it is housing (and using that to destroy NZ cities and local democracy with 1 million dollar+ empty houses everywhere, no transport and congestion and council services going up to service the folly) when our rents are actually lower than many others like Singapore and OZ and the UK.
I just hope Labeen manage to get a grip on the above so that Natz and ACT don’t take out all the votes! Labeen have no idea how much they are screwing up because they have too many woke enablers and woke thinkers around them. The left are not helping them by supporting their stupid ideas as it will be carnage at the polls at this rate.
In the real world Labour is assisting a rise in wages by resisting advocacy for a return to mass migration, and via industry awards and fair pay agreements. And governments, Labour or National, are not responsible for RB policy (as to pushing QE out via banks and the rise in the OCR).
The only change proposed to hate speech law (under which there have been few prosecutions in 3 decades) is to include religion along with race, ethnicity and origin – ever felt limited to say what you wanted in these areas in that time?
Do we really have lower rents than “Singapore and OZ and the UK”
$525 Sydney and $425 Melbourne the two most expensive.
https://www.loans.com.au/home-loans/how-much-do-australians-spend-on-rent
The average here is around $500. Nearer $600 in Auckland and Wellington and below $400 only in Southland the West Coast.
https://figure.nz/chart/dXWorYJ6MvuD3096
We already have mass immigration and often the people coming and getting instant residency are not competent in their roles and many frauds, but who cares in NZ! NZ has become a country attracting frauds, grifters and easy residency for high needs people, while not attracting honest workers who prefer Australia that offers real wages but no residency.
Fast-track visa applicants offered money to fake marriage for sponsorship – immigration adviser
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/462987/fast-track-visa-applicants-offered-money-to-fake-marriage-for-sponsorship-immigration-adviser
Website crashes as applications open for fast-track migrant resident visas
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127147314/website-crashes-as-applications-open-for-fasttrack-migrant-resident-visas
Of the fast track visas, more than 50% of them are dependants not workers and at least 200,000 have applied (with no age, skill or English level required) so in times of education shortages, health care shortages and welfare and poverty out of control, NZ’s answer is to create a situation where more and more foreign dependants can come on the back of a $43k job (or even no job) – a wage so low that nobody can live on in NZ.
be interesting to see how many empty houses come on to the rental market now interest rates are hitting and deductions are abating. or will they all flood the market in a selling frenzy – if I had leveraged rental property I’d be selling 6 months ago. give it 6 mths for the light bulb moment – rents and prices aren’t going anywhere but down. unless of course we full em up with new blood. immigrants. meh – we need labour units not PR’s – crank up the young tourist market and the temporary work visa whilst studying but no free pass to residency steez – forget families and their geriatric parent categories – lets get young people in here working and studying.
Labour should photograph this 33% and put it on the wall. Even with the unappealing Luxon and Nationals talentless caucus, it’s downhill from here on in for Labour, especially after 3/5Waters.
They look exactly like a party who can barely manage the optics nowadays with memory losses galore, having given up on the real job some time ago.
Luxon leadership of a united team has been enough to win back those like me who dispaired at the the lack of focus under Collins when I seriously looked at Act and Top as being worthy of my vote. Now the slog to win over those that while disillusioned by Jacinda and her Labour team still remember the missteps of the last National government and wondering if they can trust this lot. Some of these could go to Winston as Act is a step too far. Labour could still pull some rabbits out of it hat to swing the undecided back .Holding the purse strings can be a blessing but it can be a curse if spending is seen as wasteful such as the broadcasting reform and 3 Waters
Goff and the left should have let Southern and Mol speak. If they had done so. Act would still be wanting a cup of tea in Epsom on Less than 5%
It’s part of a functioning democracy. It doesn’t matter if what they say is wrong or u don’t agree with.
If the National deputy leader was leader I think National would be in the 40s. Luxon is doing ok but Nicola is a excellent political strategist.
Either way, we’re probably screwed.
Agree with ya Queeny the election hasn’t yet begun and yet MSM are literally campaigning for National. NZers need to wake up the media are full of it (crap) look around at other western countries Canada for example has reported the highest murder rates ever and has housing and public health system issues pretty much the same problems as us.
Corruption abounds the National party. Melissa Lee has her own media company and the National party has NZME.( NZ Herald, Newstalk ZB)
CIP. Justin Trudeau is apparently also an adherent of WEF “principles.”
Jacinda is the biggest problem when it comes to Labour now. They haven’t got anyone to replace her, so we’re likely stuck with her (unfortunately) until election day. Was kinda hoping she would resign after her disastrous draconian Covid response, but nope. Anyway, she’ll get a very soft-landing into a cushy job at the UN (or WEF).
Yep, Nitrium. Pin up to has been. Its a bit unkind but hey that’s politics. For me its not personal. Yes again, when it comes to rebranding the leadership Labour have nowhere to turn. Don’t agree with the disastrous draconian Covid response though; how so? What kinda response woulda been better?
Why are Labour making so many gaffes?
When Winston Peters made his rather obvious play for the nostalgia for the assimilation era vote (our version of little England Brexit) Apirana Negatea alongside Maui Seymoure as the bald rapture birds wingmen, it left New Zealand with a choice between the past and the future.
The thing for NZF is how many of their traditional supporters want ACT anywhere near government roles?
In 2020 some National voters voted Labour to keep Greens out of government. It seems Peters wants Labour voters to vote National or NZF to keep ACT out of government. This either works or leaves Peters in the invidious position post election as to working with ACT (all Seymour has to do is say ACT would not support a National-NZF coalition excluding them). His only option is doing so, or offering them confidence and supply.
The MP does not need Tamihere to return to parliament, it just needs more party list voters.
TOP clearly appeal to younger voters, not the older ones with property and fearful of a 21st New Zealand different to the one of the previous century.
Clearly the party could be the new centre party (sans NZF/United), representing those born since Rogernomics and yet who aspire to long term affordable housing (renter rights or ownership) security and functioning educational and housing services and a sufficiency of income that was once taken for granted.
In that it and Labour should have common ground. Articulated the right way …
So, Martyn.
You are all for co-government?
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9122-nz-national-voting-intention-no…
Majority of New Zealanders (55%) believe the country is going in the ‘wrong direction’; National support surges in November as Labour support drops to lowest since June 2017.
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for November shows support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition surging in November, up 5.5% points in a month to 50%, and now well ahead of the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 37.5% (down 7% points
let the IRD run the election and let the AI run the framework. independents only for weighting. no parties. no opposition. merit based on policy for position applied. Govt. is too big and complex. Our so called resources are propped up on cheap fossil fuels – it’s time to work with less (imported) energy and less people.
Vote Labour if you want the Mahuta family puppet mastering a weak feeble leader.
There’s pills you can take for your delusional paranoia
What a bus not to miss.
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