The Reserve Bank’s Manufactured Recession: Political Winners, Losers and Predictions

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Wow, the ‘I-told-you-so-express’ is on time again here at The Daily Blog when the recession we’ve argued is coming was finally acknowledged and announced yesterday as the Reserve Bank Governor became the Grinch who stole Christmas.

You know shit just got bad when the Reserve Bank Governor ends his economic briefing begging people not to spend money at Christmas.

When instilling confidence in ones economic fortunes, the Reserve Bank Governor calling on the country not to spend at Christmas is a bit like hearing the Pilot blaming the passengers for not believing enough in the plane staying in the air.

It does not install confidence.

“I have to burn the economy to save the economy”, isn’t really a vote winner.

There are predictably political winners and losers of this manufactured recession.

 

WINNERS:

Violent Crime – If you thought post-covid social damage generating the Ram Raids were bad, you ain’t seen nuttin yet! Buckle up, the stresses and strains going on everyone with a mortgage and pushing prices beyond peoples ability to pay will cascade down causing an explosion in desperation and need mixed with misplaced algorithmic bravado and social media notoriety mixed with depression and full blown alcoholism to create an explosion of violent crime. You thought shit was bad now? Imagine 150 000 job losses and 10% food inflation with a 30% jump in rents! Things are about to break and that is going to frighten people into demanding a response from the State that is disproportionate.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

News media covering crime – The ratings bonanza for crime porn news coverage has just saved every news producers job in NZ’s desperately underfunded newsrooms. If it bleeds it leads will become the mantra and the nation will howl in fear and anger and resentment screaming ‘something must be done” while driving ratings through the roof. The 2023 crime spree will be brought to you by ‘KiwiBank – banking made safe’.

Get tough on crime cheerleaders – Here they come, the Something-must-be-done-Get- Tough-On-Crime cheerleaders, all promoting terrible things to be done to the worst people. Some Politician, either Luxon, Winston or Seymour will finally break the political consensus and demand NZ Police be armed at all times and the frightened News viewers will scream “Yes already”. One of the weird sub 5% religious Qanon Anti-vax Parties will call for the Death Penalty to be restored and will get an alarming amount of support.

The Daily Blog – Again, just pointing out TDB was arguing there would be a recession. So, technically that makes us a winner. Not much of a silver lining we admit, but shit could get really bad right now and you gotta take those wins where you find them.

The SIS – The recession will cause desperation which is the fastest path towards extremism meaning the people the SIS can now claim are legitimate targets to spy on has dramatically jumped. Expect a demand for more money to spy on the lumpenproletariat in the budget no matter who the Government is. When you are destroying over 100 000 jobs as the price to tame inflation, expect some extremism as part of that price, and that price will be about $100million more into the SIS.

Medicinal Cannabis – All those middle class property owners are going to need some chill the fuck out time as those Tesla car owning fantasies evaporate. Medicinal Cannabis is about to become the new monthly Netflix subscription.

Liquidators and Debt Management – The fat vultures of Capitalism are about to feast.

ACT – Suddenly ACTs crazy slash and burn solutions sound agreeable to the small business owner who has never felt this insecure before and is resentful that solo mothers get money while they do not. Never before will Small Business Owners resent mothers on welfare as much as they are about to and no where will that voice be heard loudest than with ACTs insane small Government economic self mutilation.

 

LOSERS:

Food Banks – The 100 000 food parcels a month will explode to over quarter of a million as entire communities and suburbs are plunged into poverty by relentless price increases as the base line products from Russia and Ukraine drive up all costs and China’s zero Covid policy continues to disrupt global supply chains. This global blowback of inflation makes no sense to the person having to seek food parcels, all they will feel is desperate and resentful.

Domestic Violence support networks – Losing over 100 000 jobs so that inflation can be tamed will cause a cascade of domestic violence that will overwhelm support networks. Money stress is bad at the best of times, during a recession it is torturous and these tensions will rupture throughout hundreds of thousands of homes. This when our domestic violence rates are already obscenely high.

Mental Health – Economic recession and job loss is going to cause an enormous demand upon a mental health system that is already failing.

Grant Robertson – His incredible courage during Covid to underwrite the economy during a once in a century pandemic has come back to bite him in the arse. Pumping $51billion into Banks inadvertently resulted in the largest transfer of wealth to the richest in NZs history. It was right for Grant to do that, but the economic ramifications and the property bubble it generated have a political price. His caution to date has served NZ well, but right now he needs big ideas to appease the electorate and protect NZs Economy. His problem is that we face a unique crisis of Capitalism that is going to require a far more engaged State at a time when people don’t believe his engaged State can do anything.

The NZ Political Left – Middle Class Identity Politics Activists have taken over the Left and because they benefit from rigged capitalism, they don’t really ever challenge the neoliberal economic hegemony because that would challenge their own privilege. What they are good at however is cancelling people for crimes against woke dogma, unfortunately cancelling people for woke dogma doesn’t put bread and butter on the table. Poor people won’t be in the kitchen arguing over pronouns during the recession. Because the Left no longer have the intellectual capacity to challenge free market capitalism, it has no solutions other than compulsory Te Reo, mandatory cycling and personal choice self identification. ‘Free land for Gay Whales’ is our intellectual contribution to the economic debate.

Crime debate – The anxiety a recession creates cancels out compassion, empathy and rational debate. As the desperation drives violent crime via a Crime Porn News filter to insecure viewers, watch how the crime debate disintegrates into lynch mob level slogans.

National – Have finally dumped their stupid top tax rate cut and will have to stop bleating about spending they know is essential (and won’t really change under them). Despite the recession and Labour’s woeful delivery, National still can’t capture any real support for their own totally rudderless economic vision. It’s like a game of rugby where the National Party are on foot and the entire Labour Party are on crutches and National is still only ahead by 2 points.

NZ Democracy – An unelected technocrat has promised to crash the economy and burn over 100 000 jobs and no one can stop him. Not a great day for NZ Democracy.

 

PEDICTIONS:

Look.

To stave off an economic implosion cause by obscenely greedy banks in 2008, Central Banks pumped $25Trillion into the global economy and artificially created the lowest interest rates in 5000 years!

No one could work out where the hell all the inflation went, we saw massive bubbles in stock-markets and property, but no wide spread inflation.

Turns out that inflation was suppressed by global supply chains stretching into the deepest, darkest, most deunionised parts of China. With their zero covid stance, those supply chains have turned from ‘just-in-time’ supply chains to ‘just-in-case’ supply chains as the West effectively imports inflation back into western base line production.

This is a tectonic shift in free market globalisation and suggests inflation hasn’t peaked and has a long way to go yet.

Here is a photo of Chinese workers rioting at iPhone labour camps

…Capitalism’s reliance on super cheap, highly skilled workforces run by an authoritarian Communist regime always seemed like a gamble, turns out that gamble isn’t just unworkable, it’s also broken.

Adrian Orr has no choice but to ramp up interest rates, the problem is the Market believes interest has to be in double digits to truly impact inflation and they don’t believe Orr has the political capital to do that.

He’s trying to show them he does and will be forced next year to seriously consider a full 100points if inflation doesn’t stall and drop by February.

This will quickly feel like a crisis and the political question then becomes what do you as a voter feel.

If you feel scared, you will look to Jacinda and Grant who have protected you previously through Covid, but if you feel angry you will look to David and Chris to punish those who have angered you.

2023 will be an election of two feelings, fear and fury.

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76 COMMENTS

  1. Add in at least quarter to half a million foreign voters and you have a real recipe for some serious, violent, civil conflict. And then there’s the new ACT immigration policy. Genius. Marighella smiles down.

  2. Labour engineered this recession by fiscal incompetence and now we are suffering the wrath they have wrought upon us.
    National and ACT will take every advantage of this crisis they have been gifted.
    Slow clap Adern, well done.
    Should have stuck to sprinkling salt on fish and chips.

    • High levels of economic growth, low unemployment and low government debt. Property and other asset owners have gained 30% in wealth in 2 years. NZ inflation is comparatively low relative to our OECD peers. The reserve bank has interest, already, at much higher levels than most other central banks. Short, mild recession predicted – if any at all. The ‘crisis’ seems to be made up by people who spend too much time on social media and not enough time in the real world.
      Slow clap for the sprinkling of ‘talk radio’ level economics.

      • Peter, this recession has barely begun.

        Expect house prices to drop about 20% and sadly, see some people lose their homes. Once people struggle to service their debt, they will cut retail expenditure and that will result in high street into job losses. Then the downward spiral begins, because those people are also trying to service mortgages.

        It seems every generation has to learn the same old lesson about the left. It’s fairly obvious now that National/ACT will romp home to a win next year and Labour will remain in opposition until another generation of naive young adults enter the scene. And the beat goes on….

    • The leader had years of experience managing huge and highly complex organisations.
      As did almost all the team.
      Highly qualified in relevant degrees as well.

      • A fish and chip shop and a student union are pretty complex beasts! They need expert wrapping and sloganeering skills. And headnodding while frowing with fake empathy, so complex multitasking is essential.

        • Yes, very important life skills, understanding the common man, ability to connect with the man on the street, international leaders and communicate effectively.

          And sadly National have Luxon. Mind you he did work as a Hamburgler burger flipper once.

          • FFS Bert. You fucks don’t know what a Man is! Let alone know a commoner!

            Go have a cup of tea and get Ernie to rub your feet.

            • And you’re a knob,with Avery odd name much like yourself. Suggest you rub your own feet if you can reach down over your highly inflated ego!

    • Jays agree but salt on the f and c a little harsh.
      Just shows how wonderful John Key and Bill English were during the GFC.
      The Dynamic Duo,rock star economy.

  3. Very blunt and to the point.

    It was bound to happen sooner or later. It just goes to show how fragile western economies are. Their currency may be relatively stable, with the exception of the UK, but housing and jobs aren’t. Not really.

    Going forward, we really do need to elect the party that will create the most jobs. Looking back, John Key’s government slashed public sector jobs to shore up their account books. This sort of theology won’t do anyone any good going forward. This is the same with boot camps. This is the same with not really supporting small business and innovation.

    Both of our major political parties need a major political rethink before next year’s general election.

      • If we have a recession as predicted then it is likely that firms will offer redundancy to some staff. Therefore we ought to elect the party with the most vision and a willingness to create new jobs through SoE’s.

    • That’s been their modus operandi hangover from the COVID podium of truth days.

      They’d simply look for a country worse than ours and use that as their comparison, with the obedient media lapping it up like puppies around a milk bowl. “We’re gold standard, look at (insert worse country here)”

      They never ever ever compared themselves to better performing countries, because that involves ambition. And their only ambition was too control the message, keep the prols stupid and milk the crisis for what its worth.

      A leopard doesn’t change is spots.

  4. C’mon Bomber just accept that Labour is the loser here. Robertson can’t buy an election next year; Ardern and the government will be blamed FOR EVERYTHING (whether it is their fault or not) and otherwise there are no silver linings on the horizon for the government. Watch for the factions in team Labour to rise from the swamp in the next few months is Hipkins (center left) and Wood (hard left) start moving pieces into position against an increasing isolated Ardern and Robertson.

    National (unfortunately) will be a winner here remembering that elections are on the main, lost not won. Te Reo just had a unicorn start growing from his arse in regarding to backing out of the tax cuts. The other unfortunate winner will be the Greens who if there is sustained stagflation will soar well above 15% as the left look to a party unafraid of economic oblivion.

    Other winners – Winston, Boomer property investors and booze shops.
    Other losers – MSM media, non facing public servants; and the tribal elite.

  5. Agreed Martyn. ‘People that lose everything, have nothing left to lose’ I heard one American commentator say. I guess get the pop corn out it’s going to be interesting times ahead.

  6. Politically this is tricky. RB Governor says we need higher unemployment, employers across the land say we desperately need workers!–of course they mean low wage migrant workers. Fuller employment has led to people being able to move from crap jobs to something better, maybe even with proper training & professional development, or living wage.

    Workers are rediscovering their collective power and getting some reasonable results–but enforced unemployment will soon fix that, unless Unions hold the line on this and the next Govt.

    Also some practical points of unity have to found among middle class, working class, beneficiaries/pensioners and alienated people. Why? to do practical stuff in our communities as this shit storm really hits. Doesn’t matter if it is gardens, installing rain water collection, shared childcare, house maintenance, elder care, car pooling, everyone can do something–because MSD and other agencies sure are not going to. So form neighbourhood groups, a collective feeling always helps in my experience in tough situations.

    I look forward to Baldrick supporters telling us what the Natzos great ideas are…

    • @TM Bingo

      Whatever solutions are offered we can be assured they are targeted for the benefit of the financial tier of the economy and the financialized economy. Any benefit to the real economy and who the economy should (in theory) serve, the people, will be incidental.

    • Baldrick? Must be Luxon. I haven’t heard that one yet. My favourite for him is Fester, but Baldrick works too. Yip good advice I reckon – do whatever we can in and around our local communities, neighbour’s, work mates, wherever we go about our days in the coming months that are upon us. Lend a hand, an empathic ear, share a meal or veges from your garden. Every little bit helps, no gesture too small. Even a friendly smile as you walk past a stranger on the street – it all helps. We never really know what stresses individual people are experiencing at any time, but helping out wherever you can is a good vibe and we all need more good vibes at times 🙂

  7. The Reserve Bankster is, to this simple mind anyway, the Don of a Bankster Mafia Nation.
    Someone, after all, has to launder the money earned from exporting the foods and sundry agrarian produce which feed, cloth and enhance the lives of 40 million others. ( plus x’s 1000 % IMO).
    Basically, the Reserve Bank of AO/NZ is a money laundering scam. I know! Preposterous, right. But if that’s what you think, then answer me this? Where the fuck’s our money then? There’s only 5 million of us. That’s about the population of Sydney. I personally posed that same question to the one time Mayor of Christchurch when she was a member of the New Zealand Parliament for 23 years, serving as Minister of Immigration, Commerce, Minister of Food Safety and Associate Minister of Justice in the Fifth Labour Government.. Lianne Dalziel down at her feet and said ” I don’t know.”
    Well Lianne, we now have nine multi billionaires, then there’s Auckland, a cosmopolitan first-world city that seems to only fuck about in its own glory in the shadow of the buildings of four foreign owned banks lined up along Auckland’s water front who steal billions and billions of dollars about of our humble farmer earned economy. Is that a clue Lianne? Do you think there might be a link to fat, rich fucks in BMW’s in Auckland and disappeared farmer money? Hmmmmmmmmmm…? And Wellington too. That’s a pretty fancy wee town. But how? What the fuck do people do there that brings home the bacon? I mean the real and actual bacon. We’re an export economy. Remember that. Not the rind$ spent on pissing up at flash restaurants and cafe’s dahlings. Not the Jimmy Choo’s and designer threads man. What money pays for Wellington’s actual, literal, proper infrastructure? $8 latte’s? Or a speck of the billions and billions and billions of dollars drawn back into AO/NZ’s dark economy to be filtered through the Reserve Bankster? All Orr has to do then is slap an interest rate on that money then lend it out and Bingo! AO/NZ’s domestic economy, an economy, by the way, that must be seen to be having the arse fall out of it lest someone figures you fuckers out.
    So then. Where the fuck IS our money Mr Orr? Why the poverty, why the homeless, why hungry kids, why societal dysfunction born of hardship, why the bloated, vulgar, idiotic, out of control domestic house prices Mr Orr?
    AO/NZ? You’re being fucked without the kissing.
    A Royal Commission of Inquiry into our politics and our economy spanning generations please.

    • Your assertion has to be correct CB, because with the amount of edible produce, meat, horticulture and beverages produced in this country, there should not be ONE hungry person–so what gives indeed. Unprocessed logs still go to China, and there should not be one homeless person in this country either, but developers, gouging building supply sellers, and trades that only want the sweet jobs see otherwise.

      5 mill is not a lot of people, regardless of our long narrowish country. It is a digital world now, but as COVID showed poorer kids often don’t even have iPads, or good internet access. Another one eh, the digital divide is real.

      You put it in a different way from me perhaps, but the conclusion is pretty much the same. Where has the money gone? Hoovered up by the top capitalists, finance capitalists–4 banks come to mind, and the elite layer of aspirational wankers that pander to them.

      Rich people getting richer does not work. Time to boot Roger’s legacy.

      • Indeed TM and CB. We are being conned and the guise is up, but what to do about it? What is a sensible response? Would writing to our MPs enmass achieve anything? (Not in my case as it’s Sam Uffindel the wealthy bully). In person protests are counter-productive these days. I think it’s true we shouldn’t spend up large this summer, but not to save rich people. It’s just sensible to live frugally leading into a recession ( and there will be one next year, regardless of whether we spend up or not, so hang onto your pennies). If I had share investments I’d probably sell up soon. A huge market collapse must be on the horizon. The world’s financial system has peaked. Watch as the billionaires freak out to be become over night millionaires instead. Financial wealth has no intrinsic value. You can’t take it with you at the end. I think we should take back our power by not engaging in their game. Treat them like you would a narcissist and disengage, turn your back and walk away. I’m going to put my focus and energy on good hearty stuff instead. Like myself, friends, family, my garden, people who do good stuff in my community, happy thoughts. It certainly can’t hurt

  8. Grant Robinson “incredible courage during the Covid” — what the fuck! Grant has left a huge debt for future Kiwi’s – nothing special about that…

    • Yes Nathan an appallingly attempt by the Labour Government to manage our country.
      Even now with the evidence before them there are still people defending Ardern’s band of incompetent Ministers.
      Please Jacinda may we have if it’s not too late our country back.

      • Bob can you tell me actually what this government has really done wrong. We have been through a 100year health pandemic, none of the like seen in our generation. The choice was stark, lives or money. We had no vaccination available we had no choice but to lock down to save the most vulnerable. All we heard from the right was open up, open up open up. The response was criticized every step of the way both by the opposition and the media. Quarantine hotels, a pregnant journalist who should have come home earlier when she had the chance, the “ homeless man”, Bishop’s women who toured the country with covid etc. etc. The covid fund which kept the country in work . Tell me Bob what would you and your cohorts have REALLY DONE.

        • Probably not pissed $100B literally against the wall and have NOTHING to show for it. No new roads, hospitals, schools, ICU beds, mental health facilities……..

          Zero, il, nada, nothing

            • WTf are there no retail workers left?
              Someone’s fucking lying, I bought a Bluetooth speaker at Noel Leeming and there were loads of retail workers. Pretty sure they were people and fairly certain they were workers. You talk shit Nathan.

              • well considering the collapse of black friday sales in the states that’s being reported…retail worker are probably on the list….you impoverish your population they can’t buy your shit and your business goes belly up…and the shop taken over by another starfucks…SMEs should wake up and smell the cofffee literally….you are next.

        • Queeny – We would, except, Labour REFUSE a Royal Inquiry on the Government’s handling of the Covid outbreak…so we are left with Government spin….sad, but true

    • Agree Nathan Robinson seemed to have just sat back and say thats what other countries are doing so we will do the same and print money.He let house prices rise to unseen heights and people committing to unmanageable debt then pulled the rug from under them and now this government seems happy to create unemployment which will destroy the lives of many . Children will suffer as parents work longer hours to meet bills or they miss out on the extras like swimming lessons. It will need a steady hand to get us through the next 6 months

    • As opposed to what Nathan? National borrowed as well but somehow didn’t invest in infrastructure while opening the gates for migrants. National are no alone of course as successive governments didn’t invest enough. All this “oh look we have low debt”…and inadequate hospitals, shitty mass transit options, and roads with f*cking craters in them. Oh and don’t drink the water!

  9. Grant Robertson re-appointed Adrian Orr just this month, against the wishes of the Nats and ACT.

    Re-appointment means Labour’s support and endorsement.

    Orr’s failings and the recession to come just became Robertson’s fault

  10. So sack those PSA union members that have climbed over the kaumatua to get a piece of the action in all the government agencies and leveraged a chunk of the $55b Bazooka which caused all of this!!

    We kinda know now. Labour will never govern NZ for at least a generation!

    Good Fuck’n Job!

  11. In spite of the 1 in a hundred year pandemic and the war in Europe, Aotearoa now has the lowest inflation rate in the world (less than OZ), record low unemployment, low debt levels, rising wages, record export receipts – leading to the best economy in the world. This translates to Orr and Robertson as the best Governor and finance minister in NZ history. Now the right winger tory supporters have become loser economists and matakites hoping that things go arse up to help the hopeless Luxon and willis gain the treasury benches.

    • Hmm…”Aotearoa now has the lowest inflation rate in the world (less than OZ)” sorry but Oz is not rest the world. Japan and china are way less than us.

      Low unemployment _ possibly but difficult to know as the calculation had changed,

      Low debt_ thanks to Bill English

      Rising wages_ definately, but not enough to cover inflation or cost of living increases.

      Record export_ the current account deficit has been increasing faster.

  12. Sell the House!
    Put it all on this weekends lotto!

    Grant Robertsons and Governor Eee Orrs best financial advice.

  13. Immediately after the 6:00 news on RNZ this morning the word ‘carnage’ was used to describe the Reserve Bank announcement yesterday.

    Martyn uses the words “Instilling confidence in ones economic fortunes.” The mission of the Chris Bishops, Mark Mitchells and Nicola Willis is to destroy confidence and every utterance and action is about that. The more despondency and lack of hope and positivity the better.

    That is the well they plumb. Martyn says, “National still can’t capture any real support for their own totally rudderless economic vision.” They don’t need some profound realistic economic vision they need disaffected, freaked out voters.

  14. ” The Reserve Bank has just come out and admitted that they are engineering a recession to protect the rich ”

    ” Recessions have consequences. The IMF goes into some of them here. People lose their jobs and livelihoods, children lose their futures. In addition to the bankruptcies and suicides, there’s a general reduced life expectancy for the victims, and poorer educational outcomes (and so reduced lifetime outcomes) for their children. This is what Adrian Orr has chosen. This is what he is inflicting on us. Every business failure, every bankruptcy, every suicide will be his fault. And we should hold him accountable for it ”
    http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2022/11/an-engineered-recession-is-class-warfare.html

  15. Yes its Medicinal Cannabis for the wealthy and screw the rest. We could have had a thriving industry by now, with jobs galore for those that would rather work outside in nature instead of in a dull office. And who knows, maybe some of those would also rather work outside instead of ram-raiding.

    • Steven – ignore the Medicinal Cannabis “Health Providers” , go to the Green Fairies instead, cheaper, and better.

  16. How about Love and Light instead of fear and fury? How about make sensible choices this Christmas and turn our attention to our friends, families, neighbour’s, relationships instead? How about we all spend some time “going inward” and contemplating what is really important in our lives and make plans for 2023 to take action and accomplish our plans? We can’t control others any more than they can us, but we can make sensible choices that are right for us and the people we care about. Have no fear or fury as it serves no one. In fact it is detrimental to our individual and collective health (covid fear and fury taught us that). We don’t need saving. We just need to get real and get on with it. JMO

    • Back in the day the term sociological imagination was bandied about. Much of what happens simply appears beyond the control of individuals. Yet on a personal level – perhaps even a collective level – yes, human agency exists.

  17. Martyn, you forgot me in the ‘winners’ category!

    One of my term deposits rolled over today and I reinvested at 4.5% – about double what it was before, and I calculate it’s worth an extra 6K in my pocket this time next year.

    Thanks Adrian!

  18. Medicinal cannabis where raw leaf of 19% THC that comes in a bottle with a label on it costs you the equivelance of $518 an ounce while the black market is $350 but thats called harm to the community by the police and gets you busted.

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