The Hamilton West byelection is on December 10th and as with every byelection this close to the general election, the symbolic importance is more important than the actual win.
The electorate is working class, has a higher than average proportion of Māori voters and has a large immigrant community (based on the 2018 Stats for the electorate, which are now 4 years out of date).
I think conventional wisdom is out the door for this byelection because I honestly believe it could go any way.
Here are the Candidate profiles and predictions for the byelection.
LABOUR – Georgie Dansey
On paper this should be Labour’s to win. They had a strong Covid vote in 2020 with a huge majority, but the post Covid pain and animosity towards Jacinda has thrown that all up in the air. A courageous Labour would roll up their sleeves and literally send the entire Caucus up to the electorate and tap into Jacinda’s support amongst tribal Labour and hammer home real arguments why the people of Hamilton West should return a Labour MP. Because the Greens, NZFirst and the Māori Party aren’t standing and with so many right wing parties splitting the vote, they have a chance of winning. Politically Labour have a lot to lose here and the needlessness of this byelection is the real mistake. The quarrel with Dr Sharma should never have gotten to this. Coming in a close second would be a Political win for Labour.
NATIONAL – Tama Potaka
Shrewd move for National to announce Potaka as a candidate, because it plays to the large Māori electorate in Hamilton West and it breaks National’s candidate stereotype. Has a real chance to win but ACT could rob them. Only a win is a win for National, if they lose it will suggest they don’t have the appeal they think they do.
ACT – Dr James McDowall
Smart move to promote an existing candidate, but much of the reactionary zeal ACT rely upon could be robbed by the more extreme antivaxx voices in the electorate. 15% of the vote will be a political win here for ACT.
TOP – Naomi Pocock
This would be a great opportunity to inject tax debate into a byelection. Working class people bleed tax, they know the damage it causes them, TOP have actual arguments that would appeal enormously to them. The issues Labour and National refuse to touch are where TOP will push with new ideas and solutions. They are the true protest vote in this electorate and could inspire real political interest in the election next year. 5% vote would be a political win here for TOP.
Momentum Party – Dr Gaurav Sharma
With the vote split so many different ways, he does have an actual chance here if the migrant community strongly support him. To us, his list of complaints sounds like self interested snowflake victimhood, to the migrant community however, his list of petty put downs and condescensions are part of the daily lived experience of bigotry and racism they encounter invisibly every day of their lives. Do not underestimate the power of that resentment.
AntiVaxxers – New Conservative + One Party/Freedom and Outdoors Party/Vision NZ
Hilariously because they can’t agree to work together, you get this ridiculous situation where they will all compete against each other and ensure the vote splits and get nothing! They will all be champing at the bit to spread their sweaty Qanon anti-vax truths and in turn will throw the results out the window in terms of understanding how the result will twist. How susceptible is a working class electorate to crazy conspiracy theories? Gulp. Let’s find out.
PREDICTIONS:
The People of Hamilton West will be wooed in December and forgotten by Christmas. They will have an opportunity to put their working class pain and their working class anger directly to those who would harvest their support. It will be a bitter fruit and it will taste toxic.
Buckle up for a crazy fucking byelection.
PS – The Working Group is trying to arrange a special live-streamed byelection debate in Hamilton West. More details as they come to hand.
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I agree this by-election means nothing in the scheme of things, it’s all about the margin of the win and the loss that will make more headlines than the actual winner will get.
Labour can go the voters on their record, housing for all, a thriving health system, law and order and soon to be that neo democracy vote winner they can’t stop telling the public about – 5 Waters.
They’ll romp home…
Or in reality National could put up Ted Bundy as candidate, not even bother campaigning and still win. Comfortably!
This race, despite Luxon, is done and dusted!
Greens??
Yes you should eat your greens. Can’t just live on meat.
I’ll wager a lazy $1,000 that Ardern will not support her hapless candidate attending a public meeting to support her socialist agenda.
Not a single cabinet minister went to Tauranga to support the loser early this year and none will do so in Hamilton West.
What an appalling indictment on the popularity of Labour in a bell weather seat.
Another hate Jacinda grumpy old man. Get over t.
Well at least they get to have a by-election. Tauranga’s stuck with bed leg basher Uffindel