Boom – the new Roy Morgan is out and it shows neck and neck race between the National/ACT block and the Labour/Green block!
Labour – 29%
Greens – 15.5%
National – 32%
ACT – 12.5%
NZ First – 3.5%
TOP – 3%
Māori Party – 3%
Luxon continues to flounder as an unauthentic leader, NZ First and TOP rise.
With the 2023 election now being so close, Labour must again look to using MMP dynamics strategically and tactically to ensure they can win.
To that end, Jacinda should consider using the same tactic that National and ACT do in Epsom and have electorate coffee dates to let Labour voters know who to electorate vote to maximise the MMP dynamics for a win in 2023.
Waiariki – If the Māori Party gain more electorate seats than party vote, they generate an MMP overhang that makes it far more difficult for the Right to win a Parliamentary majority. Retaining Waiariki and picking up two more electorate seats would be essential for this.
Tāmaki Makaurau – Peeni Henry has already intimated he would prefer to be on the list than run in this electorate, John Tamihere would clean up if Jacinda had a coffee with him.
Te Tai Hauāuru – It is tradition for the Speaker to step down from an electorate and be on the list only, Adrian Rurawhe has yet to make that decision, but if he did, a coffee between Jacinda and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer would win it for her, which if taken alongside Wairiki and Tāmaki Makaurau would give the Māori Party 3 electorate seats and they are likely to win sub 3% Party vote thus creating an overhang.
Ilam – This is where it gets interesting. Gerry has stepped down from the electorate (he is fancying his chances as Speaker in the next Parliament) so if Jacinda had a coffee with Raf Manji from TOP and directed Labour voters to electorate vote him and he wins, he would also bring in MPs using the coat tail dynamic meaning TOP wouldn’t have to get over the 5% threshold.
At this stage a Labour/Green/Māori Party/TOP Government is the only chance for the political progress on the big economic issues we need.
A National/ACT Government would be the most right wing since Roger Douglas while NZ First’s inclusion would just be another 3 years of hand breaks for Labour.
It’s time to use MMP strategically using the very tactics National and ACT have used for decades in Epsom.
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I do agree that a National/Act coalition government would be right wing, although I do feel as well that this isn’t an altogether negative thing.
Labour are getting old and tired. What vision they’ve had has died. It’s not just because of covid-19. It’s because governments rise and fall.
Of course Jacinda Ardern deserves a third parliamentary term but does she really want a third term?
The mainstream media have conjured up imagery of Ardern as a populist leader but have always undermined her intellect. That’s my opinion anyway. As for Chris Luxon, they the mainstream media appear to be doing the same to him at the moment.
I don’t think that the 2023 general election is going to be as close as this poll suggests. In political terms, the 2023 general election is still a long way off. Labour have got one more major budget that they’re going to absolutely nail National with!! It’s not going to be a merciful slaying either.
“Labour are getting old and tired”, and so is the ancient meme you mindlessly repeat.. You actually give a great example of why it is so important to keep the two dimensional, reactionary, cretins away from what little we still own.. It’s become obvious that those who still cling to exploitation economics like it’s some sort of economic rationalism have no grasp of how a healthy society is supposed to work.. Earth to colonial cling ons… British economics don’t work unless there are enough bodies to feed the machine.. Isn’t it time we started thinking for ourselves, and stopped pining for the Empire to come back and save us from the rabble?, when the rabble is our own “betters”?
I actually support Jacinda Ardern and the Labour party.
Newshub poll was rogue poll in my mind Lynch Bridge and Chan Green showed there true colors Act and National Government is what they want.
Jenna tilts well to the left as does Chan Green. Bridge does tilt right but very cenralist.
Completely wrong, all right leaning.
Meh. Same shit different smell. Sack em all.
Self-serving rat fuckers to the right of us and useless woke losers to the left of us with hard working Kiwis stuck in the middle.
Boom – whatevs. I’m still not voting Labour again.
I am in Ilam electoral area. Those that voted for Labour have been let down and I doubt if they will, be tempted by another gamble .Raf will be tainted as a Labour want to be as he was close to Dalzell. National is standing a strong candidate and with the expect swing to National will get into power.
Labour has 4 Chch members but we do not get any favours from them being at the table and I think they will lose at least 2 of those seats if matters do not change.
The 7 still in the race, the rest pretenders.
Tango.
Get excited if you wish, but Roy Morgans bounce around a bit and this one has bounced high for the Greens and low for National. You’d be smart to put money on a “reversion to the mean” in their December poll.
I mean, this poll has reported the Greens with twice the support they received in the Curia poll from a few days ago, and 6% higher than Kantar and Reid had them. Meanwhile, National is reported 5-8 points lower than all the other major credible polls.
If you take the mean result from the four major polls – N/ACT have a 3.5% lead over L/G.
Second poll that has Labour with a ‘2’ in it. How long till Robertson’s knife comes out.
There’s a few spare knives in Collins back or Bridges or Muller. Fuck the whole of Briscoes sold out there were that many.
Too right!
Is there a single left commenter in this thread apart from me? Not at 8.01 in the am there wasn’t.
Polls are great when they support your particular world view, and suck when they do not eh lads.
Newshub was the word according to ze beeg sauzage, rotten cabbage et al, but Roy Morgan has it all wrong–uh huh…–ok that’s settled then.
It will be a volatile election period, and I predict that like the US mid terms, that new gens will start to make their presence felt, and that ZB and the rest of the tory media are distorting that reality with their white bloke focus.
100 % Tiger, nailed it.
JT would be more likely to stand for the Natz these days surely.
He thinks Michelle Boag is just a westy chick that grew up in Glen Eden,and endorses far right mayoral candidates AFAIK.
Tinpot
Bradbury makes good sense!
The Green at 15.5%? You have got to be joking! Green Party voting history has demonstrated, repeatedly, they won’t break double digits. They’ll get the usual 5-8% in 2023, just like always.
It’s going to take more than a few coffees.
After showering the Kiwirail fiefdom with dough they are going to repay the Government with closing down the Auckland rail network in election year and in Labour electorates. Guess who gets the blame?
Michael Wood wants to be investigating non-disruptive alternatives (they exist) to strengthening and future proofing the Auckland rail network (and then the rest of the country) instead of listening to KiwiRail and their National party acolytes within.
The Michael Wood of the Bike Bridge and the Rivers of Filth? I can see that working out well.
Car-mageddon in West and South Auckland (because of no trains) should focus the attention of the local MP’s – even if it’s too late to put KiwiRail on a short leash or kick them in the a. The ghost of JB Gordon rides again. Hang on – I wonder if David Gordon is related?
I agree, Luxon and National are floundering.
Luxon still believes that the treaty is a “ partnership.”
Worse, he publicly supports co – governance as it applies to DOC land, rivers, lakes, the seabed and National Parks.
FFS grow a paint and support ALL New Zealanders and not the 1,000 unelected Maori elite.
Simply cannot and will not vote Luxon or Seymour. Their policies are appalling. They would seperate N.Z.
The country, once known as New Zealand is already fractured by Ardern’s separatist policies.
In your rented out head John.
And kill off all the oldies and disabled if Seymour has his way
Arrest Jacinda for destroying this amazing country and I will vote Labour again. Don’t do that and I will vote for anyone who doesn’t own 7 houses who wants to cut taxes for ppl who own 7 houses.
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