In 2017 I helped then Chief of Staff Matt McCarten put together the Labour election strategy.
It was simple, use MMP to cut National’s support Parties so NZ First would choose Labour.
We did that by standing a strong public service candidate like Greg O’Connor in Ohariu against Peter Dunne to knock him out of the race and by bringing Willie Jackson and urban Māori away from the Māori Party.
That cut National’s support Parties and made it impossible for National to gain a majority.
With the 2023 election now being so close, Labour must again look to using MMP dynamics strategically and tactically to ensure they can win.
To that end, Jacinda should consider using the same tactic that National and ACT do in Epsom and have electorate coffee dates to let Labour voters know who to electorate vote to maximise the MMP dynamics for a win in 2023.
Central Auckland – Jacinda should have a coffee with Chloe to ensure she retains Auckland Central, the Greens are wobbly in the Polls and always over poll while their voters stay home and rarely turn out. I also think the international vote that always heavily favours Green/Labour won’t save them next year with so many expats furious they were locked out over Covid.
Waiariki – If the Māori Party gain more electorate seats than party vote, they generate an MMP overhang that makes it far more difficult for the Right to win a Parliamentary majority. Retaining Waiariki and picking up two more electorate seats would be essential for this.
Tāmaki Makaurau – Peeni Henry has already intimated he would prefer to be on the list than run in this electorate, John Tamihere would clean up if Jacinda had a coffee with him.
Te Tai Hauāuru – It is tradition for the Speaker to step down from an electorate and be on the list only, Adrian Rurawhe has yet to make that decision, but if he did, a coffee between Jacinda and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer would win it for her, which if taken alongside Wairiki and Tāmaki Makaurau would give the Māori Party 3 electorate seats and they are likely to win sub 3% Party vote thus creating an overhang.
Ilam – This is where it gets interesting. Gerry has stepped down from the electorate (he is fancying his chances as Speaker in the next Parliament) so if Jacinda had a coffee with Raf Manji from TOP and directed Labour voters to electorate vote him and he wins, he would also bring in MPs using the coat tail dynamic meaning TOP wouldn’t have to get over the 5% threshold.
At this stage a Labour/Green/Māori Party/TOP Government is the only chance for the political progress on the big economic issues we need.
A National/ACT Government would be the most right wing since Roger Douglas while NZ First’s inclusion would just be another 3 years of hand breaks for Labour.
It’s time to use MMP strategically using the very tactics National and ACT have used for decades in Epsom.
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I don’t think there’s any chance of Labour winning but..
John Tamihere is not an attractive proposition for Labour voters. Or anyone!
Nor are the Maori Party.
Chloe may win on her own but with a surge from National she may also be knocked out of Auckland Central. One tick Labour for the party vote, one tick Chloe would be sensible.
And Ilam. TOP are more or less campaigning on housing and little else. That will scare the living daylights out of Jacinda because if by some biblical miracle she was returned, she would actually have to commit to addressing the housing catastrophe, not tinker and not pretend to care and we all know addressing this massive problem is exactly what she’s avoided for the entirety of her government.
I’m picking a massive clean out of Labour MP’s is the actual reality if things remain the same.
Sound like a reasonable plan but I can’t see Jacinda doing it. I would highlight Acts policies they are over the top and will hurt a lot of NZers and set us back in race relations and destroy our public services. Act want to get rid of our Maori seats. So Maori need to vote in big numbers and I would work hard to get Maori to vote and also PI as they are another group that will get left out if National and Act get in. National have a very inexperienced leader and they have lost a lot of their experience this needs to be highlighted as does the tax cuts for the wealthy. Labour needs a good tax policy to, and I think they need to look at the thresholds as inflation is eating into people’s wages and hurting too many. We do need to bring workers in, but we need to ensure we don’t bring too many as we have apprentices in the pipeline. Houses are popping up so by the time the election comes along we will have much more socials housing. Tourism is also picking up and I am an optimist, so I believe by the time we have the 2023 elections many things would have improved including more houses built. Summer is coming and many NZers will shed their grumpy hats and get out and lap up the sun.
The way forward is to increase our Maori seats in line with our increased population as Maori have retained sovereign rights in many respects including water rights and land ownership. Their version of the Treaty of Waitangi was different to the English version and Maori had a verbal understanding with pakeha, anyway, that their sacred rights would be kept forevermore. So I definitely agree with you about the Act Party putting us back as a nation with race relations with their policy to abolish the Maori seats. If you look as well at some of the old national rhetoric, not necessarily policy as such, under three term Prime Minister John Key, now here was a leader who agreed with the Act Party policy. He disagreed fundamentally with the principle of a segregated system of parliamentary seats. Now that’s fine. A lot of people think like that. But it pushes back the interests of the Maori people if you get rid of the seats.
Sound like a reasonable plan but I can’t see Jacinda doing it. I would highlight Acts policies they are over the top and will hurt a lot of NZers and set us back in race relations and destroy our public services. Act want to get rid of our Maori seats. So Maori need to vote in big numbers and I would work hard to get Maori to vote and also PI as they are another group that will get left out if National and Act get in. National have a very inexperienced smarmy leader and they have lost a lot of their experience this needs to be highlighted as does the tax cuts for the wealthy. Labour needs a good tax policy to, and I think they need to look at the thresholds as inflation is eating into people’s wages and hurting too many. We do need to bring workers in, but we need to ensure we don’t bring too many as we have apprentices in the pipeline. Houses are popping up so by the time the election comes along we will have much more socials housing. Tourism is also picking up and I am an optimist, so I believe by the time we have the 2023 elections many things would have improved including more houses built. Summer is coming and many NZers will shed their grumpy hats and get out and lap up the sun.
covid is pa. But Labour and the Greens have to be punished for their years of misrule and division.
She should have a cup of tea with TOP. Sounds like Winston is going with ACt/National
Of course he is going with National, the party of whingers, climate-deniers, conspiracy theorists, tax-the-poor-more-than-the-rich.
Trevor trespassed WTP from Parliament Grounds and squeezed Winnie-the-Pooh’s victim gland.
Which can be found in the same general vicinity as the prostate gland.
Opposite end of the body from the ego and conscience glands.
Speak for yourself XRay many Maori unhappy with Jacinda and Labour will vote for the Maori Party especially some of our anti vax whanau.
Jacinda didn’t ruin Paul Eagles chances in Wellies he did it all by himself. Wellingtonians like us in the Hutt Valley we are smart voters.
What makes anyone so sure that would TOP want to associate themselves with Labour’s sinking ship? Labour and Jacinda are going to be toxic lepers come election time next year. In a few years nobody will even admit that they ever supported Jacinda’s incompetent, dishonest, corrupt, authoritarian regime.
What exactly is authoritarian about a government that voluntarily ended the powers they gave themselves to deal with the pandemic? No authoritarian ever legislatively reduces it’s own power … It seems like people here don’t actually know what authoritarianism is …
P-man. How about getting the SIS to issue a guide to how to snoop on the neighbours, with pointers about how the spies themselves identify potential terrorists, including persons with braided hair ? Ring 0800 if Susie’s off to Netball wearing plaits? Seriously ?
Here s a novel idea to win the next election try listening to the voters and actually do something for those that put faith in you in 2015 and more so in 2020. Where do you start plugging the hole is it health law and order transport education housing .immegration it is a big list but first admit fault then format a policy to fix them rather than just saying no crisis here.
Good work Martin. JACINDA, PUT THE JUG ON, please!
Good work Martyn. JACINDA, PUT THE JUG ON, please!
Greg O’Connor was a master stroke, but I wouldn’t be surprised even if he throws in the towel before too long.
It’s probably already too little too late. Ultimately, we get our deservings in this ecosystem, going forward.
And in the aftermath, I’ll be interested to see how the likes of Chippie and one or two others explain themselves
“a Labour/Green/Māori Party/TOP Government is the only chance for the political progress on the big economic issues we need”
To quote Martyn, “Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha…”
Any party adressing the obesity epidemic? No. ketokiwis.com. or .co.nz .
Such weird thinking about Ilam….really… Gerry lost a safe Blue seat cos of EQFC, and a great deal of back Earthquake grief.
To think that TOP can get Wellington intellectual theorist Raf Manji to win this seat when he has such distaste with thing like ‘campaigning’ and ‘meeting people’.
Sarah Pallet is a good MP, but will have a fight with a now marginal seat.
I sincerely wish Jacinda Ardern the very best in the upcoming 2023 general election. In my opinion Jacinda has worked very hard as our Prime Minister.
Not sure “Labour” and “strategy” belong in the same sentence unless the words “very poor” are also included.
NZ Health workers especially our nurses won’t be forgetting anytime soon the way Labour / Andrew Little have treated them. If you want to guarantee you totally lose their support just ignore the desperate calls from them for help and just keep telling them there is no money in the kitty. Then waste tens of millions on a harbour bridge cycle lane without doing fundamental due diligence, give millions to the Mongrel Mob FFS and now give 20 million dollars away to other countries to help battle climate change.
I supported Labour in 2020 mostly because I felt National had put too much focus on those doing well and ignored the plight of those doing it hard. Labour have done the opposite. Gifted money to those on benefits and low incomes while treating hard working tax payers in the middle and above as if they are the enemy. How divisive is that? !!. Who is more likely to turn up and vote on election day? Who is far more likely to go AWOL on election day? How’s that for a political strategy? That is more like political suicide and then Ardern absurdly says “bring it on” when talking about the 2023 election. She must be taking the piss. That has all the hallmarks of arrogance. Ardern obviously believes she can be the pied piper to Kiwi’s again via her communication. That has one enormous problem. More and more Kiwis recoil when they see her now or hear her talk. It’s like a marriage break up. You have the love and then comes the separation. When that arrives and there is loathing involved, no amount of talking will make a blind bit of difference.
Ardern has abandoned middle NZ and above. They are now abandoning her in droves. Trying to stop that now will be like trying to stop the tide coming in. I disagree with those saying the election result will be close. If it’s close it will only be close to a massacre. I doubt very much Labour will get back in again for decades.
How ironic. Labour got into Government because National abandoned kiwi’s doing it hard. National will get back into Government because Labour abandoned hard working middle NZ and above.
“Not sure “Labour” and “strategy” belong in the same sentence unless the words “very poor” are also included.”
🙂 ROFL Hehehehe and TMAWAF (Tickle My Arse With A Feather)
Rest assured though, they’re pushing back in a way the world’s worst masochist would be proud of.
Oh how Labour has fallen!!! Even since that gorgeous little Martinborough shindig not too many years ago.
Be careful what you wish for with TOP. They could easily go the other way
Never forgive. Never forget.
The only way that the Left, or we, the people, wins is by holding government (of any persuasion) to account. Make them justify every decision (or policy) that directly, or negatively impacts upon impacts upon us.
This is how the Left truly wins.
Sarah Pallet is a good MP for Ilam, Raf Manij is pretty untested…as are the rest of TOP
McCartern was a flop as C.O.S and was NOT in that role in 2017!
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2016/08/future-of-labours-chief-of-staff-matt-mccarten-in-doubt.html
The electorate mood is continuing to change -and in direct contrast to the zeitgeist that brought first Key and then Ardern into ascendancy.
Fluff and manipulation only really ‘fly’ as political strategy in early to mid-decadence. They are emblematic of the silent, spreading rot caused by too much ease for too many, with too much influence, for too long. Image almost totally eclipses substance.
You can see it in the herculean efforts to deny now obvious, runaway rot. Roll out the lipstick army and cover that damn pig from head to toe!
But now, at this stage, redoubling efforts in manipulation and artifice just hastens the demise of the cosmetician.
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