Boom!
Labour – 32.3%
National – 40.7%
ACT – 10%
Greens – 9.5%
NZ First – 3.3%
Māori Party – 1.9%
Labour have crashed in this Poll and the reality of a National/ACT Government is now upon us.
WINNERS:
Chloe Swarbrick – She is more popular than the actual co-leaders! Why isn’t she the leader?
Hamilton West Byelection – This poll makes the byelection even more important and symbolic with momentum going into the Summer of an election year hinging on who will win and by how much.
National – Despite the bullshit of their taxation policy for the 5% richest and Luxon working at McDonalds, the anti Labour momentum has given National an enormous psychological win.
NZF – If Winston’s 3.3% this close to the election, he’s 5% on the day.
LOSERS:
Labour – Their caution has cost them, the lack of transformative change has finally caught up to them
Jacinda – Her popularity is Labour’s. Her popularity wanes, so does Labour’s.
CTU – Maybe if they had worked a tad more on getting that fact showing $6Billion of National’s tax cuts will go to the top 5%, Labour wouldn’t be haemorrhaging votes. Less time on bullshit things like the PSA gold plated holiday theme and more focus on the actual issues confronting all workers, not just their mates.
ACT – 10% is pretty low for ACT, they would have hoped for a far larger share.
Greens – Who? And I make that joke as an actual Green voter.
Woke Identity Politics Activists – Well done comrades, you’ve alienated and cancelled almost every voter. I’m excited to see how you will win them back using hate speech legislation.
PREDICTIONS:
I think the Roy Morgan Poll is out tomorrow and the next TVNZ Poll will be out within a week as well. If they confirm Newshubs, there are real problems for Labour.
Today’s conference saw Labour finally move towards subsiding universal services that can directly save people money rather than simply lift welfare which gets clawed back by WINZ and MSD.
To combat the cost of living crisis Labour must look at free childcare, free breakfasts and lunches in school and free public transport because those benefits help everyone, not just the incredibly low thresholds that welfare provide.
By subsiding universal services and making them free, Labour would put money directly back into the pockets of those needing that help the most without MSD and WINZ getting in the way.
National’s counter offer is to put over $5Billion into the pockets of the richest 5% of NZ, once voters appreciate the enormity of inequality National are intending to implement, they will give Labour a second look.
I appreciate Covid has hurt us, and I appreciate that many former Labour voting males have walked away in disgust at the woke madness, but don’t pretend that voting National is a solution to being pissed off with Labour because an ACT/National Government will only make inequality immeasurably worse in this country.
Don’t buy Chris’s de-unionised Happy Meal, it’s poison.
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You reap what you sow.
What does that mean? I did not sow anything, and don’t deserve to have an evangelist as my Prime Minister. Luxon is not even remotely credible. Go on about Ardern all you like, but that bloke? Can’t National find anyone in their ranks?
Luxon was credible enough for Jacinda to make him the chair of her business advisory council. It’s not Luxons fault that Ardern and co have failed to deliver for kiwis. They promised to be truly transformational and then dropped the ball, no one else.
Yes now he is inexperienced and useless. I cannot believe Jacinda is this naive. She is being advised very badly by Roberston and Willie in my view.
Lol, so desperate you’re fear mongering now?
MB you are confusing the old conservative default that running a business is the same as running a government or country. It’s not. I am talking about credibility in that sense.
If you are going to go down that tired old business route you better forget David Seymour. The only thing he has run is a bath (perhaps).
The Anyone but Labour (in name only) force is strong. ABL.
I agree NACT are awful, BUT what can the public do to show their HORROR and distrust/annoyance/anger (etc etc) with a LINO Govt with ‘unlimited’ power that have done absolutely NOTHING to help the 90%.
If they can’t do it now they will NEVER EVER EVER do so. And that means the END of the Labour party !!!!
So the question is who is the ‘negative’ vote to go to?
Most people aren’t too well educated, read or knowledgable in politics, so it makes sense that they will vote for the other big party, and that just happens to be Natz.
If there was a known REAL left wing party that had a chance to be over 5% I believe you’d see that they would have absorbed the ABL vote and not mainly Natz.
Please please start up ‘your’ Pa Aotearoa party, so we can vote for a REAL left wing party. NOW is THE golden moment to get momentum for a fledgling left wing party, and another time in history will invariably NOT be so. IMHO.
I agree with 90% of your views Martyn. So let’s not let our difference split us, as you say about Labour; hunting down and removing the non-100% believers.
Look around the world, voters are fed up and getting rid of their governments because of the economic mess we are going through. There’s nothing Labour can do about it. Minor policy changes or announcements won’t change a thing.
Will be interesting to see if it’s backed up by the other polls.
Richly deserved if true, refusing to listen or even explain co governance, 3 waters, hate speech take your pick.
Cost of living ridiculous and government about to tax farmers.
So, so arrogant, so, so dumb.
ABA – anyone but Ardern gaining momentum. How long till the ‘2’s begin.
Will Poor man’s Gordon Brown start sharpening his knives?
The thing about big mac!s, they look bigger than they are and the soft ice cream cone starts to melt afore your hand touch.
This poll is interesting in that Labour’s actual vote share is very similar to other polls, and the National vote share is well above the other polls. The losses from Labour appear to have been gained across ACT and the other minor parties. Does make one wonder … is it one standard polling error (which would place NACT at 48% and LabGreens at 45%) or an opening chasm that’s getting baked in.
Either way, Labour has about 6 months to move the needle before the momentum is completely beyond recovery.
The major issue here is that all the proposals to combat the cost of living will have to be countered by the RBNZ because their solution to inflation is to reduce demand. However, the demand they are trying to reduce is for basic necessities and it’s not demand driven inflation (in that demand on a per capita basis had not materially changed since 2020, 21 etc).
So the “demand” that needs to be curbed is excess profiteering. The rest of inflation driven by external factors will remain as long as those factors remain – however, addressing the profiteering allows for direct assistance to people to make a material change without having to have the RBNZ counter that by increasing the OCR etc.
you need to remember house holds have taken on a mountain of debt and intrest rate rises are killing them and nothing the government can do about that alot of that pain is self inflicted by borrowing beyond your means
Labour still my party.
But this unfathomable co governance and unelected getting a free ridec
will cost us dearly.
If Winston offers us pensioners a deal that will make the pension livable that Also will hurt labour.
Richard Dahlberg. What about the children though ? Axing the much- needed Commissioner for Children is a brutal and unfathomable blow, and for that alone, I think Labour deserve to be history.
Hard to pick on one particular failing because there so many with Labour but from crime to Fenton St, to people dying in emergency departments unnecessarily accompanied by the cost of living, it’s all bad.
But the biggest killer is they can promise what they like, we all know they are too inept to deliver.
Willie is fast running out of time to implement his master plan!
Dont right him off, he is coming into the turn and has the wind behind him!
Polls go up and down, and swings about. No reason to panic just yet.
Looking at your list of freebies, won’t it be better to help families look after their own children till they start kindergarten, instead of subsidizing childcare centers.
There is need to support families, whether by income splitting, paying families a grant for up to 4??? children to help with additional expenses, community support groups and free classes for at home parent to upskill themselves etc.
Benny. Yes Yes Yes. Babies and toddlers being “ looked after “ by paid strangers, the whole day long, before they can even walk or talk, is not good news, and bad for the littlies. Local research carried out here in New Zealand records not just tardy milestones, but other negative impacts such as failure in particularly mother- child bonding, for the under two year olds. Pre-schoolers booked in from 8am – 6pm have less home time than many teenagers. The nuclear family unit can be hard, but it’s not so very long since families could live on one income, and kids not have to leave home so very sadly early. Many mothers cherish those early years spent with their children, but some now have few choices.
New Zealand is heading down Donald Trump pathway. NZ own Fox News will always bad month the Left. Melissa and Ryan will be jumping for joy.
100% correct Antony. The Fox Am Tory show, Tory talk ZB, Tory times Herald with the guidance of the NATZ Dirty Politics Team will be salivating over the polls. Willie, how do we get a raving Left wing talkback or TV station like the Natz and ACT have. I dont want my taxes going to the Tories – they are getting millions of dollars of free political propaganda. Wait until Luxon confronts Jacinda on the election trail – Luxon cant keep making up figures and numbers. He and Willis are hopeless and the natz are the do nothing party. The Natz wont make the tough decisions. They will be borrowing $3bn for tax cuts for the rich and inviting the speculators in again to rip off our housing market. They never added to the social housing supply in nearly 30 years.
ACT was 3.6% lower in the last Reid/Newshub poll. National has only gone up 0.2 on the last one.
The pertinent detail
then L/G/MP 48.5 NACT 46.9
now NACT 50.7 L/G/MP 43.7
NZF will do well in the next poll as those in the National camp wary of ACT influence move to them – indicate a preference for the type of National government.
For Labour, the incremental measures to maintain support announced at the conference will keep them in the game till parliament returns in 2023, but no more.
Woketards, Tribalists and SJW will be having knife fights in the dark, only one way out of this during a time of economic hardship and that is with economic solidarity. Time to shitcan the lot of them or the public will do it for you.
SJW?? Shock Jock W**kers?
Close enough
If National and ACT get in, you can forget about any form of payrise until after 2030. I guarantee it.
Lol, so desperate you’re fear mongering now?
Its true. National do not want workers to have any pay increase. Not now, not ever. They would gladly have people on the same wage right through their career.
I think the childcare subsidy increases are smart policy for Labour for a variety of reasons. However, let’s call it what it is – middle class welfare. It won’t do anything for those on benefits apart from make it easier to get a job perhaps which is helpful for some and the economy in general. There will be some support for those at lower levels in work but why the F do we have to pay for families taking in $125- $140K a year, more than double the average wage.
If I had 3 kids and couldnt make ends meet on $140K then there’d be something wrong with me (especially if that $140K comes with the better tax treatment of 2 incomes, a max of $174 net a week better off).
I’m not saying childcare isn’t a good thing (especially if you want people to work longer hours because, you know, there aren’t enough skills to go around) but the main reason Labour is doing this is so it can massage the PMC vote. It is basically a COL allowance for any salaried worker.
Also, it’s a bit underwhelming compared to something like fuel tax rebate or free public transport.
lol:
https://youtu.be/yeKZmIfhEJM
“National’s counter offer is to put over $5Billion into the pockets of the richest 5% of NZ?”
The poll results suggest that’s what people want.
Labour and their supporters will not accept the result of this poll. Anyone who has the audacity to point out why support for the Ardern Government has fallen so dramatically since 2020 is “right wing”…beep! wrong! I’m not right wing. I voted Labour in 2020. I couldn’t stand Judith Collins and find Snookerballhead truly nauseating.
Labours best and main weapon was Ardern herself. Now a growing number of people are recoiling when she speaks. That spells the end of the Ardern Government.
They did do some good work and that should be acknowledged…..but they are taking our country down the wrong track and that will be reflected in the 2023 vote. Can you imagine just how badly Labour would be trounced if National had a decent leader?
Poor man’s Gordon Brown is another one the voters are annoyed with I am afraid. Would have to be Stu Nash as leader to have any chance in next election. & Bring back Louisa Wall, one if the few good Labour MP’s.
Nash!!…get real,he should bein the Natz-hopeless.
Alongside the minister for pies and pastries Gerry Brownlee and minister for corruption Judith Collins.
Lol Nash the minister for angry gym equipment.
Removed as minister of police.
Yeah he’d be great.
I think my favourite song has a niche for itself again.
From Oliver – ‘I’m Reviewing the Situation’ and it’s the sing- a-long version so Labour MPs and fellow travellers can sing it together or separately. The words are strangely appropriate considering it is about a robber trying to do his best in a harsh world, with his young underlings.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFfRFR85OnI
Left without anyone in the world,
And I’m starting from now
So “how to win friends and to influence people”
So how?
I’m reviewing the situation,
I must quickly look up ev’ryone I know.
Titled people — with a station
Who can help me make a real impressive show!
So where shall I go — somebody?
Who do I know? Nobody!
All my dearest companions
Have always been villains and thieves…
So at my time of life
I should start turning over new leaves?
I’m reviewing the situation.
If you want to eat — you’ve got to earn a bob!…
I’m reviewing the situation.
I’m a bad ‘un and a bad ‘un I shall stay!
You’ll be seeing no transformation,
But it’s wrong to be a rogue in ev’ry way…
This rotten life is not for me.
It’s getting far too hot for me.
There is no in between for me
But who will change the scene for me?
Don’t want no one to rob for me.
But who will find a job for me,
(It’s time for some new blood in Labour before the aggrieved alienated
are tempted to spill it.)
Labour are desperate enough to give a family earning $108000 a year help with child care and you Labour lovers say they are good with our money . I am happy for support to go to those in true need but why is someone earning $108000 need help and you complain about the rich getting some tax breaks .
This poll is great news but you can see from this move the only thing Labour can come up with is giving money to all and buying their way back to the treasury benches
Some rather shallow comments above, politics is much more than the parliamentary variety. Polling is in a parlous state in NZ compared to just a few years back when there were so many that Collin James used to run his “poll of polls”. To state the obvious, polls are great when they line up with an individual’s preferred world view, and rather suck when they don’t.
Labour has done this to itself, they had a blank cheque in 2020 and refused to cash it in favour of the working class and alienated. And…the dirty Natzos and ACT have made it quite clear what they will do if they are able to grasp the green leather benches with their munted orcish claws and mutated bal’heads. Being pissed at NZ Labour is no reason to welcome the rightwing filth tide back into Govt. Tens of thousands more people would likely have died during COVID if they had been in office in 20/21.
But in any event, voting for the lesser evil of an NZ Labour led Govt. with hopefully a strong Green and Te Pāti Māori element is the only option for politically literate non Natzos in 2023.
We need a new left campaign to boot Rogernomics in 2026, along with a rejuvenated NZCTU that takes it to the Labour Caucus and tells them how the world works.
Chloe Swarbrick – She is more popular than the actual co-leaders! Why isn’t she the leader?
A). Too lazy – opportunity in the leadership challenge, but why bother when you can loll about writing books and memes about yourself and all your problems, when being an MP on 6 figure salary in early 20’s, after coming 3rd place in mayoral elections.
Interesting to see Ms Lynch proudly supporting ACT – well, she is married to the Chief of Staff, Mr Ketels …so it is to be expected. #DirtyPoliticsPersistNZ
And Jessica Mutch McKays husband is one of the PMs bodyguards? So what?
I think you just made her argument MB
Was always gonna happen, 3 Waters, hate speech bill, more mass immigration of migrants below average wages and no wage dependant migrant pensioners/children, more and more restructuring of a system when the restructures make everything 1000’s times worse, like the war of private landlords to create the business-led/foreign led landlords gobbling up taxpayer money for disgusting accomodation.
More and more sales of foreign assets like forestry, even though many of the assets being sold offshore are neglected and have to close down.
Foreign property investors and backpackers getting NZ cost of living payments. They just can’t wait to give more money/assets away to foreign wealthy billionaires and bring more high needs people into NZ gobbling up scarce resources, in some virtue signalling woke stupidity.
Typical woke media post is something like, why some high needs health relative can’t get NZ residency for example and free benefits and health care in NZ (Discrimination!!!!), while not pointing out in other countries the entire migrant family working in NZ needs to pay health insurance, let alone give migrant workers free health/education from day 1, then complain because more and more family members can’t get more free care!!! Wake up NZ, nobody else is so stupid in the world!!! The only other dimwit foreign interfered nation, giving away free welfare to all was the UK, which is a disaster with inflation and high cost of living, too.
Good points……allowing Marsden Pt to close will prove a very costly…mistake…too.
We are in the middle of a woke useless shitstorm with the self-serving rat fuckers riding to the ‘rescue’.
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