BREAKING: New Poll: ACT + National take lead – Chloe twice as popular as Marama & Shaw combined!

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New Taxpayer’s Union Curia Poll is out and it is similar to the internal UMR Poll we discussed on The Working Group.

UMR internal:

National 38%

Labour 35%

Green 8%

ACT 9%

Māori 3%

It’s a close run thing but it will be Labour/Greens/Maori Party as the Government, in the latest TUC Poll, National and ACT muscle into the lead.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

National 37%

Labour 33%

ACT 12%

Greens 10%

Maori Party 1.5%

The real slide has been Labour and the Maori Party in this poll, which feels clumsy. The Māori Party are torching the Roy Morgan Poll at 5% and the Roy Morgan Poll got the 2020 election closer than any other Poll.

What is of concern is that National AND ACT are building when ACT are doing such a better job than Luxon at getting their message across.

The most interesting development is that Chloe has 3.2% support as preferred Prime Minister compared to 1.2% by Marama and 1% by James, that means Chloe is twice as popular as Marama and James COMBINED!

We have just left a harsh winter and Labour received the most negative media coverage it ever has, with the lifting of Covid restrictions and Summer, National has to do more than harvest people’s grumpiness and frustrations if they want to remain ahead.

National’s economic and social policy is bullshit.

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98 COMMENTS

  1. A Republic run by Democratic National Referendum!

    Sack all MPs and elected local representatives as administrators of referenda and have an elected upper house of 20 and MP representative administrators no more than 100 earning no more than half of what the salary is now and add KPIs and Performance Pay criteria that is decided by referenda!

    The current system doesn’t work anymore.

    • Probably something to do with a failed health system, crime spiralling out of control, cost of living issues, falling house prices, a bloated bureaucracy and otherwise plain incompetence.

      Otherwise most people have woken up that Jacinda didn’t save us but did take away 3 years in meaningless controls and restrictions.

      In general Elections are lost not won.

    • Maybe, just possibly because she kept He Puapua under wraps at the last election, and because of the dishonest way her government tried to sell 3 Waters to the public.

      • In the end a strategic mistake. She still would have won and would have a mandate for 3 waters and other co-governance desires.

        It’s like the All Blacks lapping Tonga and then not having enough in the tank for South Africa.

      • They seem oblivious to what the majority want regarding 3 waters, which is the government cleaning up all their other failed projects first like housing and polytechs, before going on to new unchartered waters in 3 waters and health care separation.

        NZ doesn’t need more management structures, they just need to retain the nurses and doctors and professionals they have (decent wages and conditions) and train some more in line with their desired demand led immigration policy.

        Instead they seem to be attracting those who need to use NZ health care and other services than those who are qualified and mentally able to work in it.

        • What do NZers want from 3 waters saveNZ? All we hear from is those either with vested interest in maintaining the status quo or the political opposition.
          I notice the Nats say on their billboards they will repeal and replace 3 waters. Nobody knows what replace mean do they.
          Is it back to yesterday or something else like they did with electricity? Either way it is crap in the streets, water restrictions and more flooded properties. But that’s alright because instead of paying tax or rates you’ll be paying huge insurance bills to fix your houses and sections and to pay for Doctors to tell you you’re infected with ecoli and giardia ore hepatitis.
          Dumb arse

          • I don’t think a bunch of mangers for 3 Waters is going to stop the rot of huge insurance bills, coli, giarida and hepatitis (already coming to us via foreign frozen berries https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/warning-issued-after-hepatitis-a-linked-to-imported-frozen-berries/RXQO7WLLRFXCZKCZWSLIWENU6Q/ no recalls).

            Stemming climate change might help but that hasn’t happened with Labeen, more subsidies to oil and diesel and high polluters in NZ which worldwide accounts for 70% of emissions, more consents for more landfills near streams, more consents for water for golf courses, wage subsidies for polluters and foreign water bottling with government behind it https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1904/S00055/nz-government-secretly-funded-water-bottling-companies.htm

            the build, build, build, roads, roads, roads, paving, paving, paving, mantra which contributes a lot of CO2 and polluted waste water running into the sea! even the cycle lanes seem to be driving a move for more paving everywhere.

            No construction mandates of house build prices at 5x the average wage.

            No interest in having ecological building for water such as mandated roof top collections of water, re-using waste water for toilets/gardening/ or solar panels for power being mandated in the building act –

            Happy to mandate healthy homes through – just forgot the state houses and community housing that they control, as that is not due until 2023.

            Fail, fail, fail.

            Natz would not do better, and probably worse long term, but I agree with others here who think Labeen doesn’t want to win the election. Maybe all they want, is to force through management layers of 3 Waters and others, have their mates on high salaries unable to be removed and create a divided train wreck going forward.

            Seen it before with student fees (Labour), followed by student loans (natz). Fail, fail, fail.

            Rogernomic reforms always say it for Maori and the poor but they tend to be the ones who it tends to be even worse for.

            Too much division on race and class in NZ, and not enough driving everyone towards middle class that the left sneer at, that is actually equality aka we are all equal and in the middle no matter what race or class.

      • I thought He Puapua was a discussion report a group put out which ended up put into a drawer or shelved. Of course interested people proceeded to take further some of the recommendations in it, ideas which we’re formatted in there but not exclusive to that exercise.

        As a grab bag of ideas it has been depicted as the most hideous publication in the history of the country. Naturally it has the likes of Cameron Slater and his followers frothing at the mouth (not that that’s unusual), and those of Mike Hosking too, wetting their diapers. The groundswell tractor drivers used it all to garnish their grizzles.

        • I agree Peter. It was a discussion document. I think Ardern was wrong to try and shelve it because that feral creature Judith Collins made it sound like it was policy and lots of idiots took the bait. That’s despite National already working on co governance models.

    • Yes Sam, a little gratitude would be expected. Look at all Jacinda and Co have achieved – the crime, homelessness, democracy “re-imagined”, education and health care failing, race based bullshit and soaring living costs; ungrateful peasants!

    • @Sam Credit where it is due, Ardern and Labour are fantastic in a crisis and at public relations but piss poor at running a country. As mentioned by others, numerous social and economic factors and institutional transparency have all declined sharply under this government and you cannot blame all of it on COVID, look at what Mike King achieved. Voted for her twice, will likely sit the next one out.

    • Sam. Why? One major reason is this government’s unfathomable decision to abolish the well performing and much needed Commissioner for Children and replace them with a faceless committee of back room boys. That alone will stop me from voting for them.

    • ” I can’t understand why kiwis hold so much animosity towards Jacinda after everything she’s done for them ”

      Well to be fair they strongly led with the pandemic response despite the draconian measures which directly effected those who made the choice not to be vaccinated.

      The animosity is that Adern , Robertson and the rest stand for Labour but have no idea what LABOUR was formed to protect in the first place and that is working people and their families , children , pensioners , the sick and disabled anyone who is not protected by their wealth against the corporate capitalist forces that the union movement was standing against in 1916. The same enemy is still here but lawfully much more powerful thanks to LABOUR the party of the non wealthy who decided to discard their support base and join with the enemy they were formed to protect against !!!

      For a lot of whanau they still believe that NZ Labour has their best interests at heart when you compare them to the Nasty Natz. That is the big lie that continues to be believed by so many loyal LINO voters but when they get elected after a few soothing clichés about poverty and ‘ Lets do this and build back better ”
      that Adern and the rest are still the neo liberal , big business corporatized non threatening social democrat new Labour imposter that will never be able to alleviate or protect all those that this economy has relegated as disposable in the drive for profit.

  2. It’s good news for a National / ACT coalition government. Then ACT can be a
    slaughterhouse to wasteful Ministry’s after they WIN the 2023 election.

    Witchcinda and her fake kindness will hopefully disappeared into the dustbin of history!

    • Zelda, if the polls continue the downward trend for Labour she will not be the Labour leader….she will walk away, she cannot stand being not adored and her anxiousness will see her step down, of course it will never be because of the bad polling but ‘family commiments’.
      New UN job 6mths after stepping down will be her reward.

    • Don’t bet on the abolition of those useless ministries Zelda. Unfortunately Luxon has said it’s “not National Party policy”, and is more likely to agreed to the crap aspects of ACT’s agenda – still more privatization.

  3. “National’s economic and social policy is bullshit” x 1000 – as is sadly their leader. But the same is true of the party calling itself Labour.

  4. I have no idea why people hate Jacinda so much. She is the best of un inspiring bunch.

    However Labeen’s cheerleading of poverty and crime and low wages is becoming a big NZ problem and spending loads of cash on this, instead of some prevention by not allowing so many people in poverty to come to NZ to ek out a living, and the amount of criminal behaviour that has become the norm.

    If Labeen admitted there was some sort of problem and had more sympathy for the victims not the offenders, but you get the impression that Labeen are brushing crime off or pretending it doesn’t exist https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/body-in-burnt-out-car-for-two-days-police-told-passerby-it-was-a-sheep/AICHYIXYOJDGCOQYHEQVYPK4TQ/, as something that is either not happening or if they pay xyz private third parties even more money, somehow it will stop.

    Why is NZ attracting very high needs, violent and depressed individuals? Other countries like Finland don’t have these headlines daily/weekly.

    Val Heaney murder: Man who battered landlord with hockey stick jailed for life, previous violence revealed
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/val-heaney-murder-man-who-battered-landlord-with-hockey-stick-jailed-for-life-previous-violence-revealed/Y5BLY4CYHVOAVKHIQN24L7FGT4/

    This Murderer only got 10 years in jail who killed his wife last week.

    Auckland murder: Husband killed wife as ‘punishment’ for not being able to conceive
    https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/crime/papatoetoe-murder-family-say-husband-killed-wife-as-punishment-for-not-being-able-to-have-children/

    NZ didn’t notice the kids disappear for years, but now the bodies are discovered within a short period are extraditing her back to NZ from Korea (not sure but sounds like they didn’t even notice she had left).

    Bodies in suitcases: Woman arrested in South Korea was found ‘hiding in apartment’ in Ulsan, faces NZ extradition
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/bodies-in-suitcases-woman-arrested-in-south-korea-was-found-hiding-in-apartment-in-ulsan-faces-nz-extradition/3325UX2TILF3AILZCBKTZ7GKYI/

    Other countries with better human rights, don’t have high murder and poverty rates, take action against individuals that don’t follow their laws.

    Finland deported unusually many foreigners last year, writes YLE
    https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/17335-finland-deported-unusually-many-foreigners-last-year-writes-yle.html

    NZ woke and media have somehow got into the scenario of being more interested in criminal’s rights than the victims and has more sympathy for the offender. Meanwhile human rights suffer, as police are photographing the innocent.

    • It is their performative kindness – they took that performance to the street every day for a few years now and people stop believing them. They are now a PM who – no matter what they say and no matter how sincere they may come across – will not believed by the people. Living in a bubble of underachieves locked in lucrative government jobs, ngo jobs, and supply industry such as media and academia has made the PM so disconnected from the real world that really one comes to the conclusion that they – the PM are clueless. Utterly and completely clueless. And Rotorua is a prime example of the cluelessness that defines the Labour Party of today. Lets dump homeless, jobless people with few to no skills in a town that has 11% unemployment locally and that also has no more industry. Labour – let’s keep moving, just don’t ask to where and why. Just keep moving. Don’t look back. Just keep moving. Until they run out of road and plunge down the cliff. Lets keep moving.

      • Look I agree with you in part and well written, aka locked in their own bubble,

        “Living in a bubble of underachieves locked in lucrative government jobs, ngo jobs, and supply industry such as media and academia has made the PM so disconnected from the real world that really one comes to the conclusion that they – the PM are clueless. Utterly and completely clueless. And Rotorua is a prime example of the cluelessness that defines the Labour Party of today. Lets dump homeless, jobless people with few to no skills in a town that has 11% unemployment locally and that also has no more industry. Labour – let’s keep moving, just don’t ask to where and why. Just keep moving. Don’t look back. Just keep moving. Until they run out of road and plunge down the cliff. Lets keep moving.”

        The problem is that the Natz are just as bad and probably worse – getting caught selling out MP seats for donations and selling off the country for a small slice of action is part of the problem. Dinosaur policy on climate and running attack adds on public transport.

        There were so many small things Labour could have done to help people that they didn’t attempt. Now they are starting some good policies such as expecting large companies and government to actually pay their invoices on time, but is that too little too late?

        Greens got the plastic bag ban through to nudge them into a positive policy for the last election, but since then, seemingly helped convicted formally male rapists decide to be woman in jail etc and virtue signal about colonialism non stop. Personally can’t work it out when the biggest woke attackers have 90% ancestors colonisers themselves but virtue signal their below 10% difference. Own your own legacy, woke!!!!!

        NZ woke will reconcile it by gifting NZ to China or India and virtue signalling their policies such as India being the worst place in the world for woman’s rape and China locking up pro democracy and human rights lawyers and journo’s.

        There is a lot that is wrong with NZ and can be done better, but NZ is still a fantastic place to be if only the weirdo woke and pro slave brigade could step aside and leave some more in touch politicians to implement small but positive policies for the average Joe and planet that other countries already have!

  5. Maori party barely registering in this one.
    I think there must be a lot of variation in the minor parties from such a small size it’s probably hard to know their true polling.
    Real hope for a change of government on this poll, both main parties of the right up.
    Also Luxon popularity well up and Jacinda down, “wrong direction” tops 50%.
    People are waking up.
    Pai mutunga!

        • Assuming Bob that you are referring to Labour I can’t really see the difference with National. They try to sound like they care ( ok bottom feeder remarks aside) for the majority but their plans don’t suggest that at all.

    • You do realise that you wont get a payrise ever again under National, and that your sick leave, paid holidays, etc will all be chopped. You may not even get a smoko break anymore. Imagine, working a 12 hour day right through.

      • millsy, that’s exactly what keepcalm and whatthefuckever wants. A return to the bad ole days. Are people waking up to Labour, no, they’re listening to the shrill of N.Z s right wing paid and bought for media and its propaganda.
        But don’t worry, a lot of votes sway on debates, so plenty of votes coming back Labours way.

      • Do you realise that if you have been politically captured to the degree you think what you wrote is actually true, then free medical assistance is available.

      • Don’t worry the slaves and cash workers will do it. They are already advertising 10 hour days for minimum wages starting at 6am in the meat industry in Auckland.

        Neokindness is so wonderful you can make the slaves pay for their own trip now to the people traffickers @ 30k before finding out it was all a lie, and then make the other workers in NZ pay for that error too by paying all the top ups needed to live here.

        • 12 hour shifts are a killer. I work 12 hour shifts (utilities dispatch), and it kills me, even if I am working from home. Fortunately the company I work for has taken on a new worker, and these are being cut back to more civilised hours.

          • Interesting story millsy.
            But I remember another thread you posted recently on , complaining that bosses and employees had never had it so good and we shouldn’t have sympathy for them only beneficiaries.
            I think you are lying and full of shit.

      • Are you stating a fact, Millsy – or just an opinion. If a fact, back it up. If an opinion, your lead sentence should read ” You do realise that my opinion is that you wont get a payrise ever again.” Which is it, Millsy?…….

  6. Brenda and Labour are now in the low 30s.

    What is the kill switch number for Poor Man’s Gordon Brown and will he install himself or plump for Peewee Wood?

  7. The Maori party got 5% in one Roy Morgan poll and the left took it as if that meant something.

    Roy Morgan is dog shit lol. People always act like them getting close to the 2020 actual result means something when it’s the outlier, they are routinely so wildly off it’s like they throw shit at the wall, they were gonna get one right eventually, a broken clock is right twice a day.

    Maori party is the biggest wild card because they could cause an overhang in seats and it’s really hard to poll. I doubt they’ll get above 3% though.

    Those numbers should terrify the left.

    National got 60 seats twice at 47%. A nat act govt could make Thatcher squirmish.

    I do think act in government will be as useless as every other political party in a coalition and get fed crumbs.

    Labour should have been at panic mode when they hit mid 30s but it’s been months and months and they’ve just continued in management mode.

    I don’t think labour wants a third term. Otherwise they’d be taking note of polling and research groups, instead they are refusing to change course on an extremely unpopular technocratic management agenda.

    I think labour wants to get as many bureaucratic top down reforms in place and doesn’t give a f*** about being reelected.

    Otherwise they’d have done something, anything in the last few months to excite people. Anything. Like I’m the first term they’d just make random declarations and policy announcements.

    Labour WANTS to lose the next election so national can come in and do all the things labour’s moderates desperately want done but couldn’t do themselves.

    Otherwise they’d have done a major govt reset months and months ago and be panicking like mofos as soon as they hit late 30s. Now we’re in early 30s territory and … Crickets. Hmmm

    • Not sure a right wing offshoot of a political party that runs polls is worth the toilet paper I wipe my arse on Corey, just saying.
      Agree with your Maori party analysis, I can see them being the king maker and given Rimmers hatred of Maori then there definitely won’t be a right wing government, add in National betrayed Maori the last time in power.

  8. Corey Humm,
    They simply don’t know what to do.
    They’ve got 12 months to push through their race based policy.
    Selling out over 85 per cent of the population.

  9. 1.4% said they want Marama Dividson as PM. How far down the hole has the country gone to get a WTF? like that. Must sux big time to be Shaw when a Queen Loony Tunes gets higher in the polls.

  10. ( Jesus! What a rabble of witless babble. Goofy snipe-tennis is uncool man. )
    I want to see Chloe Swarbrick become our Prime Minister then unite farmers with not only each other in terms of farming regeneratively and sustainably but with the broader population too but only the ones who eat and import goods. The rest can eat tourists and import logical fallacies.
    The natzo’s are ‘up’ because someone in Natzo Land made a phone call to an MSM minion and said ” I see you cashed the cheque so we must be up.” and so ‘up’ they are.
    You do realise that within a neoliberal capitalist fascism like ours we have no choices, we have no alternatives, we only have a faux reality that’s a bit of a shit reality if I must be honest. We can work harder at ultra high paying yet pointless jobs while others work even harder at essential services for less than they did and that less is getting ever lesser. I hear that real estate agents take hundreds of thousands of dollars in commissions while our nurses must go off-shore to earn a little more money, as an example. I’m not even going to write that, that’s ok because most of you would have no real idea what it is that’s ok or not. An example might be that if I pushed a child down a flight of stairs then said, after the shouting and screaming, that it was perfectly reasonable and acceptable to push a child down a flight of stairs. And you lot would say ” Really? Is it? My God! I never knew that. Quick! Gimme a child? I just so happen to have a flight of stairs handy.”
    This weird and wacky racers world we grow older to struggle then die within is foisted upon us by a cabal of greedy lunatics who’ve mastered the art of convincing everyone else to be as mad as they are while praying that no one’s left with a mind of their own to notice. That’s why television after all.
    It’s all designed to distract then gum up the works of the brain so, nothing to see here, move along now. Leave your money over there, now fuck off and die and for Gods sake, do it quietly and in an orderly manner.

    • Swarbrick will see every farmer slapped with a ridiculous “fart tax” as well as regulations regarding use of fertiliser, which will make NZ uncompetitive in farming vs countries that won’t do this. Free trade agreements (already in place) will have us importing food due to prices we can no longer meet domestically, further curtaling production. That is the crux of “the Green New Deal”, something that Swarbrick 100% supports.

      • So you think that farmers shouldnt be subject to any regulations whatsoever, and just be allowed to just dump what they like in my rivers.

        If you want to live in a dog eat dog filth-ridden shit hole, then I suggest you move to Somalia, India or China. They have no regulations whatsoever, and their rivers are chocked with shit.

        • Farmers (or whoever) can be subject to regulations, as long as ALL the stuff we import from our “trade partners” are subject to the exact same regulations. Right? The same for any other industry. Guess how much stuff we’d be imporeting from China, India, and Pakistan if we did this? Yeah, ZERO. No one is going to take New Zealand’s lead in regualting anything if they can leverage it to make more money for themselves.

    • Country boy
      Chloe is still an angry teenager. Not ready to run a country. Christ, she can’t even shitkick her Green Party into shape. That should be her first job – be a proper leader. Maybe she should leave the Greens.

    • Chloe for PM?? For goodness sake CB, that’s strong stuff you’re smoking today. She’s a mental adolescent (no pun intended).

    • You’ve had your boring bobblehead opinion, over n over. You love National, you rub off on it constantly. We get it. Are you OK? TDB is primarily a democratic discussion forum. It’s inclusive because we have all sort that make up our democratic nation. You have abused this blog with your one-liner diatribes always trashing one party and one person. It’s juvenile Bob. You have been shown the mirror of your behaviour. Now, rise up, sir bobblehead, and fuck off to twatter. xx

  11. Hmm, poll funded by the Taxpayers Union (not a union) using David Farrar’s Curia polling organisation suggests right wing government could be formed and the Maori party is irrelevant – can’t say I’m surprised, maybe the timing of the poll taking advantage of the avalanche of hit jobs by the media helping their mates out.

  12. They’ve/we’ve forgotten his richist comments — I can’t even remember. sad.

    Up to an effective Left media to remind us.

    We unfortunately have a short span of attention thesa days.

    At least he remembers.

    Just I can’t see any positive from capitalist nonsense in the last days of comfort. Though I thought that about Thatcher. What we lack is a true talker in an age of focus groups — the short termness of voters. By which we’ll ‘canter’ over the cliff. Two alternatives for a future for our children: talkers or a democratist dictatorship.

  13. They’ve/we’ve forgotten his richist comments — I can’t even remember. sad.

    Up to an effective Left media to remind us.

    We unfortunately have a short span of attention thesa days.

    At least he remembers.

    Just I can’t see any positive from capitalist nonsense in the last days of comfort. Though I thought that about Thatcher. What we lack is a true talker in an age of focus groups — the short termness of voters. By which we’ll ‘canter’ over the cliff. Two alternatives for a future for our children: talkers or a democratist dictatorship.

  14. The gweens remind me of that old favorite NZ tv gameshow. “It’s in the Bag!”

    They talk up all kinds of shit pre election and then sellout to the highest bidder for the ‘$hut the fuck up money for the term contract!’

    And do exactly that. Nothing for the entire parliamentary term!

    Parasites do the same thing!

    $o. Remember to kick these parasites into touch in 2023$ general election.

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