TVNZ Poll: Winners, Losers & Predictions


As TDB has been pointing out for some time now, 2023 will be fought between who frightens the NZ electorate least, an ACT/National Government or a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.

A Parliament that is hung, yawn and disordered.

National: 37% (down 2)

Labour: 33% (down 2)

ACT: 11% (up 4)

Green Party: 9% (down 1)

New Zealand First: 3% (up 2)

Te Pāti Māori: 2% (steady)

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The Opportunities Party (TOP): 2% (steady)

Vision New Zealand: 1% (up 1)

New Conservative: 1% (steady)

Democrats for Social Credit: 1% (up 1)

Don’t know/refused: 11% (steady)

There are of course political winners and losers.


ACT – The dynamic that we have endlessly argued here on TDB is that the polarisation of politics in NZ driven by a surging ACT Party vote represents a unique moment in NZ political history. The ACT manifesto is far right romper stomper performance art for fascists and they will start cannibalising the National vote as economic pressures and rhetoric over co-governance reaches a shrill cross burning level that National can’t compete with. ACTs desire to amputate 5 Ministries plus the Human Rights Commission plus hacking off $7billion from welfare funding represents the greatest threat to the NZ State since World War 2.  David Seymour is a far better politician than Luxon and he will hoover up all right wing vote in this country under 40 years of age.

Greens – Despite self mutilating themselves with their phantom coup, they only slide a point here. Thank Gaia! National’s insane desire to bash young people on welfare is such a golden moment for the Greens to rally their youth support and fucking hand it back to National in spades! This is the bogeyman in actual manifestation now, Green activists don’t need to micro aggression police everything because there is an actual enemy on the battlefield who is directly slagging them off! If the Greens could stop trying to make every heteronormative white cis male an enemy and focus on an actual enemy like Luxon’s offensive and draconian attack on young people, then they can start being an actual double digit Party again. Will the Green Party strategists who I have endlessly shat on for their jaw dropping incompetence understand this and seize the moment? Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha  HahahahahahahahahaHahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah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No. They’re pretty stupid. They won’t appreciate this at all.

Labour – Despite being in the darkest coldest part of Winter with a stretched Hospital System and stratospheric pessimism, Labour are still at 33% which is a staggering achievement. They look strong in the Roy Morgan Poll and the private UMR polling released to Caucus today shows a much more balanced picture. Sure, they have taken a battering from criticism, some very valid, others just bullshit, but Labour have weathered it. They need to start turning things around now though and the last chance for a transformative idea is the budget next year. Jacinda, while her numbers fall, is still their greatest asset, she was able to front a Q+A interview and claim having high aspirations while delivering sweet fuck all is a good thing and managed to get away with it! That’s spectacular will over reality level messaging there. She pulls that stunt in the elections and she will get smashed. Andrew Campbell needs a clip around the ear for allowing her to look that disconnected from reality.



National – They’ve hit their ceiling and this absurd bash the disabled young people on benefits shtick by privatising Welfare just won’t work for them because it’s a demographic issue now. 2023 will be the first election in NZ history where Gen X + Millennials are a larger numeric voting block than boomers, this bash the Bennies shit has an old person vibe to it and there is a far larger youth voting block who can be activated to vote against that bullshit. National have peaked and the slow grind between now and Election 2023 will be ACT cannibalising their vote. I think with their privatisation of welfare stuff, National will have spooked the centrist voters back to Labour. The 1800s are calling and Charles Dickens wants his child labour laws back, this is a strategic blunder for National. Luxon keeps getting the tone wrong the way Simon Bridges did, our young people need support, not the crack of the whip!

New Zealand Voters – Because the Political spectrum is so hung and the polarisation so extreme, nothing is being collectively done to solve the myriad of problems we are facing post-Covid from crime, to cost of living crisis, to climate change, to inequality and poverty. No big ideas and no real solutions to the challenges we are collectively facing as New Zealanders.

Beneficiaries – They are now the whipping boy for the Right, expect all manner of offensive shit to be claimed about their lives and their laziness.

The Environment – Meanwhile, the planet is burning!

Young people – National’s bewildering attack on young people is the worst kind of politics. All National are trying to sell is the stick. The Mana in Mahi programme that Labour are running was extended to over 5000 young people and 90% had not returned to a benefit, including three quarters of those who had been on a benefit for two years or more. Labour are getting results with programmes that work by supporting young people, not threatening them – so why when unemployment is so low are National trashing youth beneficiaries? Because it’s cheap and easy and lazy politics.

Renters – Our lives become more disposable by the day. Thank you Labour and National.



The Bank of England expects the UK economy to tank after inflation peaks at 13% in the fourth quarter this year and remain elevated throughout 2023 despite the economy already entering a recession in the fourth quarter this year as well.

This is before the impact of Russia cutting gas and the impacts that will cause Europe and Italian Banks spreads as inflation ruptures throughout the Eurozone.

Bank of America is predicting a deep American recession this year and the mega droughts caused by catastrophic climate change are impacting food growing nations.

China is facing economic carnage from their zero covid plan while a looming property market collapse could cause untold damage inside the Chinese economy.

That’s why I find the idea of punishing young people on welfare as a legitimate response to the challenges we face about as unconvincing as a Donald Trump dating app.


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  1. Labour are slowly but surely descending. They’re not winners.

    It goes against every fibre of the Ardern governments being but they must address the myriad of issues they have either failed to address, avoided and or pretended they were doing something when they weren’t.

    Housing. Stop the bullshit and build social housing. The waiting list is one huge indictment on this government. Jacinda had the audacity to tell Ryan Bridge they didn’t realise how bad housing was. Oh. My. God.

    Crime. I’ve not seen it this bad. Chippy is a used car salesman, not a man who has the pulse of law and order. This is killing this government.

    Health. Not a week goes by where more bad news nails the coffin lid shut on the public health system. And Andrew Little ends up in a confrontation with health professionals. I don’t know how effective Little was as a unionist, but as a minister of anything, he’s awful. Labour are creating such a mess they’ll make it easy for National to privatise it!

    No more smoke and mirrors
    No more pointless empty announcements.
    No more bullshit.
    No more I reject the premise of that question.

    Time is ticking and it is not this governments friend. And that’s with a numpty as bad as Luxon as the Leader of the Opposition!

    • ” Labour are creating such a mess they’ll make it easy for National to privatise it! ”

      you could think that this is the purpose of the game, fleece the citizens and sell of the commons.

      • The Commons is the problem! The incentive to free-ride at someone else’s expense is the true pandemic within NZ.

  2. Labour are the big losers here. They expected a bump following the WokeWorldTour and some calculated hitjobs on Te Reo by the feckless. What this poll shows is the centre left doesn’t have the numbers and ABA (anyone but Ardern) is in play with the majority of voters.

    A 30% approval rating for a PM isn’t horrible but it isn’t re-electable. And this was after the WokeWorldTour and the fangirls such as Tommy C writing puff pieces in the rags.

    National will be happier with this poll than Labour.

  3. Labour needs to bribe the beneficiaries so they will turnout to vote as well as try to carve off some of the 12% of the undecided. Or, call a snap election and bribe the poor with the payment for the cost of living by extending it to allow the beneficiaries to be eligible to receive it asap.

    Other than that, they should all resign in shame for wasting 5 years of our time!!

  4. Left bloc down 3%, right bloc up 2%.

    Labour polling at worst level since 2017 says the days of rapture for the covid cultists are well over and the empress is not wearing any clothes over housing, education, cost of living, gangs/gun/ ram raid crime, co governance/race relations you name it.
    TVNZ poll trend is Labour continuing to fall every poll.
    A shame we can’t dump the government early and start the repair job before 2023 but we will just have to wait.

    • What makes you think there is a repair job coming? National made a mess of housing (actually more didn’t care than made a mess) , health, and despite all the bluster did what really about crime? Three strikes was rubbish, P testing houses was about privatising state owned houses (not crime/health). Cost of living, they welcomed the CC recommendations for the duopoly. I guess they have now totally changed their tune on co-governance, that’s one thing (if you are inclined to freak out about it). ACT will apparently not pay to fix or maintain anything

      You’ll be waiting for your repair job for a very long time

      • Overturning 3 waters and it’s anti democratic nepotistic co governance will certainly be a repair job, spinning wheel.

        • Right so all the other issues you don’t actually have a problem with and concede they won’t improve? I am not defending labour, just pointing out you are misguided in thinking National are going to do a repair job.

          • Most of what gets fixed depends on ACT how many seats they get and what gets negotiated, but you know that, being here to just run interference eh.

  5. Labour will likely continue to slide into next year and the election imo. The economy will continue to deteriorate as inflation starts to snowball (interest rates should be at least at 7% right now to staunch the wound) since people are spending savings now in fear of having to pay more tomorrow… which causes supply pressures and more inflation. Rinse and repeat. Add to that a formerly charismatic leader who is becoming increasingly unpopular (think Tony Blair), and I’d surprised if Labour polls above 25% by election day.

    • And that would be lower the n Cunliffes low, god knows how low Mr. Little polled, and this time around there is no one left in that party to safe them from the demise of their own doing.
      Popcorn. Sadly, he tangata as always will be left to hold the bag.

  6. If Labour is to have any show of winning it needs to dump Ardern now and put in whoever seems the most adult, whoever can talk for more than two minutes without over-the-top (pseudo) emoting. Most of all, Labour needs to can the ”style” and switch to some kind of substance.

    Life is not an American soap opera. Action or political death.

  7. When I’m not listening to RNZ, and various other outlets claiming 4th Estate membership, my entertainment sometimes extends to watching the Very-Much-McKay. If I was a nit-picker, I’d be having wonderings about things like cloth allowances and fashion advisorists of fluid sexuality.
    Please Willie – spare us from these amusements. Life has become too complicated already for the average hegemonic.
    Pfffft, Politically correct Pharts and all, laid in designer undies of course (ni doubt modelled my a failed d-d-d-d-DJ called Mex, now working for a couple of brothel owning Chows, and delivered Kardshian style on MSM platforms.
    Time to front up to the corrupted shit of humanity the worst of that “team of US’ claim membershiop to.

    Thank CHRIST (not ekshully HIM), I have an escape hatch

  8. Agree the Greens worth paragraph after paragraph of haha.
    Yes children are attracted to them naturally.

  9. Chloe Swarbrick should hire or borrow an actor ( Idiocracy. ) to team up with to explain to those many AO/NZ’ers who fail to understand the concept of common sense that shouts at us that there’s no politics left in AO/NZ. There’s nothing to discuss while roger douglas’s neoliberalism still claims lives, souls and all our money and when all the money’s gone the rich will blame the poorest and most vulnerable. It’s they, the most at risk who will then be RNZ-lumbered with the blame for an otherwise rich country going down the shitter. ( Trump Dumps documents. Does anyone actually understand luxon or his fawning little minion in waiting, seymour. Does anyone understand/comprehend just how dangerously hideous they both are?
    To be frank, I’m getting bored with most commenter’s and bloggers here. Particularly those who fail to comprehend the above.
    I’m reading the same morons re fart the same brain-farts. I can’t stand it. It’s truly awful and despairing.
    I’d prefer adern drag her gang out of Auckland’s $ix figure sewers to bang on regardless than luxon’s Zombie hoards gagging for a go at the polls. Muddy old farmers begging the bald tranny Dominatrix i.e. Mistress luxon’s whips and chains to awareness and enlightenment. Others too, who’s preferred mode is abuse, hardship and fear. If I’m living within a VR simulation, the sound and visuals are superb but fuck, the script’s a bit shit. The Guardian. ‘The big idea: are we living in a simulation?’

  10. God. Apologies time from me. I pondered and reflected at MY last brain fart.
    You guys are all awesome. Commenters bother to comment which is a breath of fresh air compared to the MSM. The people who write Blogs are doing better than me at it. So go you guys too.
    Big so’s y’awl.

    • No worries CB, I love your rants. You are a gifted wordsmith. You’re allowed to vent. We all do from time to time. The wheels of change roll on slowly, but they are still rolling. Hang in there 🙂

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